Inter's chance of making the final is 95%, as opposed to Milan's 5%.
Champions League Semi Finals (9th - 17th May)
- Thread starter Samid
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Inter's chance of making the final is 95%, as opposed to Milan's 5%.
Madrid at 4/1 tonight. They’ve given them no chance of winning have they.
Probably made before last night's game. There's no way I'm giving AC Milan even 1.5% chance now.
What they were saying is 95% chance for Inter to make the final (with the 2 goal lead) but basically City are gonna beat them in the final.
Milan lost this game in the midfield. Same as game 1. I have no idea what they were trying to do to be honest.
Everytime Tonali had the ball, Inter's 3 man midfield would crowd him and pressure him to lose the ball. In this scenario, you'd usually look to pass to the one of the other 2 midfielders with you and create a good opportunity since there would be a good gap (logically). Except, Milan's other 2 midfielders were standing next to Giroud all the damn time, having no way to receive the pass from the crowded and under pressure midfielder. This went on virtually all game.
Everytime Tonali had the ball, Inter's 3 man midfield would crowd him and pressure him to lose the ball. In this scenario, you'd usually look to pass to the one of the other 2 midfielders with you and create a good opportunity since there would be a good gap (logically). Except, Milan's other 2 midfielders were standing next to Giroud all the damn time, having no way to receive the pass from the crowded and under pressure midfielder. This went on virtually all game.
Come on Madrid. Don't let us down.
They are up against a side that won 23 and drew 2 of their last 25 home games in the competition. They beat Bayern 3-0, Liverpool and Arsenal 4-1, United 6-3...
Real Madrid always have a chance but 4/1 looks about right. City are heavy favourites.
City are 1/4 and Madrid 11/4 to qualify.
Seems crazy to me that you win 11 times as much money for the same stake if RM get through. Those odds are way to skewed for my liking.
Seems crazy to me that you win 11 times as much money for the same stake if RM get through. Those odds are way to skewed for my liking.
If you think Madrid are favorites and the bookies aren't seeing clearly, then this is literally free money to be made by laying a large sum down
Fact is, when it comes to City at home - in a game where they have to be up for it, they usually get the job done.
Always seem more likely to lose to a Palace or a Brentford at home (where they can get complacent) then a Madrid/Liverpool/Arsenal
Vinicius, prove you are a god-in-waiting, will you, lad?
And Benzema, roll it back just a year for us, just for tonight! You too, Luka!
And Benzema, roll it back just a year for us, just for tonight! You too, Luka!
Clive Tyldesley said on his Instagram that there hasn't been a penalty shootout in the Champions League for nearly 7 years. If he's right, that shootout he's referencing was the 2016 final.
Madrid needs to keep it tight, dont let City get the hold of things and play their game. As long as its 0:0 City will be more and more nervous, not to mention if Madrid scores.
Tonight will be a dark night for football
Today I feel Madridi
Yeah get it done tonight and we will offer you or Kroos a year at Utd before riding off
Man, I want Lautoro here. Can you imagine the nuttiness of a front 4 of Lautoro, Garnacho, Antony and Bruno. 
Guardiola said he will modify some tactics to make City more fluid in attack.
Ancelotti had the right plan in the first leg but it will be very hard to surprise Pep in two consecutive games.
Playing at home as they are if they can be contained I don't see it lasting very long. They are very productive when they are on tune and many of their key players are inspired this last part of the season (Haaland, Gundogan, De Bruyne etc) and let's not forget they have a very impressive squad depth in Julian Alvarez, Foden, Mahrez etc too.
Also, their numbers in CL at the Etihad are truly impressive. Something like 23 wins and 2 draws in the last 25 games.
I wish I get it wrong but they now have the experience and the strength to combine and get the result that will lead them to the final.
For Madrid to have the chance I need at least a good Benzema to appear but we have barely seen anything of that this season. If there is something of that today we can all agree it was not really expected. Modric and Karim can still produce isolated moments of sheer brilliance here and there but let's not forget age takes its toll so it will hard for them to equal the outcome of City monsters at their peaks.
Ancelotti had the right plan in the first leg but it will be very hard to surprise Pep in two consecutive games.
Playing at home as they are if they can be contained I don't see it lasting very long. They are very productive when they are on tune and many of their key players are inspired this last part of the season (Haaland, Gundogan, De Bruyne etc) and let's not forget they have a very impressive squad depth in Julian Alvarez, Foden, Mahrez etc too.
Also, their numbers in CL at the Etihad are truly impressive. Something like 23 wins and 2 draws in the last 25 games.
I wish I get it wrong but they now have the experience and the strength to combine and get the result that will lead them to the final.
For Madrid to have the chance I need at least a good Benzema to appear but we have barely seen anything of that this season. If there is something of that today we can all agree it was not really expected. Modric and Karim can still produce isolated moments of sheer brilliance here and there but let's not forget age takes its toll so it will hard for them to equal the outcome of City monsters at their peaks.
If Benzema is not 100%, Madrid will be out
Come on Madrid! Do the fecking business!
Inter have a 95% chance of making the final, and 38% of winning it
City have a 69% chance of making the final, and 45% of winning it etc
Madrid has saved us a few times before, time to do it again lads. Hala Madrid!
This 38% for Inter seemed a little high - so after passing Milan the model would have them at above 40% against either City/Madrid and I think most here agree we wouldn’t give them 40% vs Madrid and surely not against City.
They have 38% chance of winning the CL - which is fair enough in my eyes.
Can't afford a City win tonight so, in the spirit of the game and to our Spanish members, all I can say is "ich bin ein Madrid".
That 38.1% was before yesterdays game, so logically that model must have them higher now, at 41-43% I’d guess. High IMO
City are massive favorites but it wouldn't surprise me if they go to ET tonight. Madrid are serial winners and bookies treat them like they're Bournemouth.
sad to say it, and I hope I'm wrong but I see City winning this handy enough, 2-0, 3-1 something like that
You add the 1.4% from Milan, so it's still at under 40%
Winner of City/Real will be at 60%+
What do you want the odds for a one-off final to be 90-10?
Its 75/25 according to the betting exchange
Inter were 2-0 up so had one foot in the final already.
Man city game is more finely poised.
They know man city are stronger than inter so makes sense if they get to final they're more likely to win in that game.
That’s all so straightforward, no idea how I didn’t get it. Thanks y’all, especially for not making me feel stupid about it
Depends who the winner is… I think City would be higher. Madrid would be barely above 50 according to this table.
It is giving Madrid 30% chance of making the final and only 15% of winning it. That’s around 50.
City on the other hand are 70% likely to win tonight and 45% to win both tonight and the final… That means they have about 25/70 chance of making the final but not winning it.
It translates to a result in the final of around 66% for the win and 34% the loss…
Inter chances of winning are 40% but that’s factoring in they might play Real. But these chances would immediately shrink if City qualifies tonight.
All these %s in here make me think of Scott Steiner's legendary maths class in and interview for wrestling 
I hope I'm wrong but i feel Real Madrids chance in this tie went by not winning the 1st leg. A comfortable Man City win tonight is more likely than Real Madrid going through to the final.
Come on Madrid, you've served us so well stalling Liverpool, but more is needed tonight.
One huge performance and stop them.
One huge performance and stop them.
I don’t think Madrid are favourites. Doesn’t mean I can’t comment on the odds disparity does it, you absolute weirdo.
Let’s go Los Blancos!
As someone who supports Inter i am very comfortable in knowing that if we have a good day we can absolutely win against either of City or Real Madrid in the final and i think in this moment being underdog do us a favour.
I would actually prefer City rather than Real Madrid in the final although i think we have a good chance against either of them in this moment. City i feel might choke in the final and might be easy to score on the counter if they go there while i would guess Real Madrid will have a mental edge over us since they won some games against us quite recently but these were games were it was very even and i would say arguably we played better than Madrid in these matches but the ball didn't go in.
At this stage the mentality is such a huge factor and i would guess City would have a better chance of getting choked and nervous in the final, especially since they will be the favourite in the final. I also like how Lautaro Martinez have proved himself to be a big game player and also Lukaku will have some revenge he wants to take out from his bad world cup.
Feeling quite comfortable in front of the final. Just making it there i would say is a good season for us and we definitely have shown to be strong in knockout-games and finals under Inzaghi, add to that players like Barella and Lautaro Martinez who recently won the euros and the world cup.
Will be an interesting final for sure whoever we face. City have the capacity to trample opponents but at this stage i don't know if they have the mentality and i think Inters defence is a bit too solid for a trample to be happening. We have a history of killing of tramplers, last time prime Barca when we knocked them out being one man under in the 2009/2010 season.
A good time indeed to be an Inter-supporter.
I would actually prefer City rather than Real Madrid in the final although i think we have a good chance against either of them in this moment. City i feel might choke in the final and might be easy to score on the counter if they go there while i would guess Real Madrid will have a mental edge over us since they won some games against us quite recently but these were games were it was very even and i would say arguably we played better than Madrid in these matches but the ball didn't go in.
At this stage the mentality is such a huge factor and i would guess City would have a better chance of getting choked and nervous in the final, especially since they will be the favourite in the final. I also like how Lautaro Martinez have proved himself to be a big game player and also Lukaku will have some revenge he wants to take out from his bad world cup.
Feeling quite comfortable in front of the final. Just making it there i would say is a good season for us and we definitely have shown to be strong in knockout-games and finals under Inzaghi, add to that players like Barella and Lautaro Martinez who recently won the euros and the world cup.
Will be an interesting final for sure whoever we face. City have the capacity to trample opponents but at this stage i don't know if they have the mentality and i think Inters defence is a bit too solid for a trample to be happening. We have a history of killing of tramplers, last time prime Barca when we knocked them out being one man under in the 2009/2010 season.
A good time indeed to be an Inter-supporter.
That time of the year already?
You know, when we all became Real Madrid fans for a game..or two.
You know, when we all became Real Madrid fans for a game..or two.
What chance do City stand against Perez?