Bundesliga 2018/19
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Inspired by another thread:
Let's get controversial!
overrated:
Let's get controversial!
overrated:
players:
-Timo Werner: People still see him as a talent who is bound to improve, even though he has played more first division minutes than players like Alcacer, Plea, Haller or Wagner. He's obviously a very talented player, but he feels like a worse version of Aubameyang to me, I don't think his profile fits that of a striker in a dominant possession team and I can't explain why people think it's a no brainer that Bayern should buy him. I think people wouldn't rate him nearly as highly if Germany had a top level striker.
-Thorgan Hazard: The media sees him as Dortmund's Pulisic replacement and reports of a fee around €40m. To me he's obviously talented, but I'm not at all convinced by his decision making and end product, a flaw which I wouldn't necessarily expect to be corrected at that age.
-Benjamin Pavard: He obviously impressed everyone in his first season and rightfully so. But that was only one season and in the current one he seems fairly terrible. I might just be a normal WC blues, coupled with Stuttgart's bad form in general, but it still surprises me how lots of people automatically assume that €35m is a very good price for him.
-Jacob Bruun-Larsen: TM rates him at €20m, Reschke went on how he would've loved to spend big money (by Stuttgart's standards) for him, but I don't see it. I don't think his technique is nearly good enough to play as a winger for Dortmund and it's already directly cost them 1-3 points against Düsseldorf. I think he got lucky that Pulisic plays even worse and Guerreiro was injured for so long. Otherwise he would be a late game impact sub for counter attacks rather than getting most minutes.
coaches:-Thorgan Hazard: The media sees him as Dortmund's Pulisic replacement and reports of a fee around €40m. To me he's obviously talented, but I'm not at all convinced by his decision making and end product, a flaw which I wouldn't necessarily expect to be corrected at that age.
-Benjamin Pavard: He obviously impressed everyone in his first season and rightfully so. But that was only one season and in the current one he seems fairly terrible. I might just be a normal WC blues, coupled with Stuttgart's bad form in general, but it still surprises me how lots of people automatically assume that €35m is a very good price for him.
-Jacob Bruun-Larsen: TM rates him at €20m, Reschke went on how he would've loved to spend big money (by Stuttgart's standards) for him, but I don't see it. I don't think his technique is nearly good enough to play as a winger for Dortmund and it's already directly cost them 1-3 points against Düsseldorf. I think he got lucky that Pulisic plays even worse and Guerreiro was injured for so long. Otherwise he would be a late game impact sub for counter attacks rather than getting most minutes.
-Dieter Hecking: Mediocre! Very good for a mediocre coach, but still mediocre. Like so many coaches he can organize a defense and have his team defend and (counter-) attack as a cohesive unit, but I don't think he can do much more beyond that. I think he's a coach with whom you aim for top 5-8, his one good season at Wolfsburg was based of his spectacular attacking trio, as is his current third spot with Gladbach. But if Eberl was truly ambitious he would've sacked him last summer.
Disagree about Werner fitting to a possession team. I think he is a perfect player for counter-attacking teams. He isn't a good passer or anything, relies a ton on his speed and his touch is pretty bad, especially when building up speed. Don't think he has what it takes to be a top club player. Decent finisher and nice speed, but too heavy on the ball for my liking. He a ton of those spots, where his touch lets him down.
Thorgan decent, but doubt he is worth 40m. Pavard unsure as i haven't seen much of him and same goes for Bruun-Larsen.
Thorgan decent, but doubt he is worth 40m. Pavard unsure as i haven't seen much of him and same goes for Bruun-Larsen.
@do.ob
Werner: He's still 22 and has scored 21 goals each in the last two seasons and is at 13 goals this season. Those are outstanding numbers for a player in the age range 20-22. No reason why he can't get better, he never had a "possession" coach like Nagelsmann, Tuchel etc., only pressing maniacs like Rangnick and Hasenhüttl who have no idea about positional play. He could still transition to a wing-forward role like Salah.
Thorgan: Flawed end product? 19 matches 12 goals 7 assists? One of the top3 Bundesliga players this season (with Haller and Reus) and a much better player than Pulisic right now. Of course he's not world class, but the closest thing to a sure bet Dortmund can sign and a player who wouldn't go on strike after 1 year and have his dad attack the club on Instagram.
Hecking: Very good for a mediocre coach is a fine verdict, although I can't think of any better outcome than 3rd place right now if Gladbach had gotten a different manager. He gets good results with good players and mediocre results with mediocre players.
I called the Bruun Laarsen thing some months ago
Overrated: Jonas Hofmann (purple patch player), Zagadou, Alaba, Goretzka, Rebic, Javi Martinez, RB Leipzig defenders (individually, not collectively)
Werner: He's still 22 and has scored 21 goals each in the last two seasons and is at 13 goals this season. Those are outstanding numbers for a player in the age range 20-22. No reason why he can't get better, he never had a "possession" coach like Nagelsmann, Tuchel etc., only pressing maniacs like Rangnick and Hasenhüttl who have no idea about positional play. He could still transition to a wing-forward role like Salah.
Thorgan: Flawed end product? 19 matches 12 goals 7 assists? One of the top3 Bundesliga players this season (with Haller and Reus) and a much better player than Pulisic right now. Of course he's not world class, but the closest thing to a sure bet Dortmund can sign and a player who wouldn't go on strike after 1 year and have his dad attack the club on Instagram.
Hecking: Very good for a mediocre coach is a fine verdict, although I can't think of any better outcome than 3rd place right now if Gladbach had gotten a different manager. He gets good results with good players and mediocre results with mediocre players.
I called the Bruun Laarsen thing some months ago
Overrated: Jonas Hofmann (purple patch player), Zagadou, Alaba, Goretzka, Rebic, Javi Martinez, RB Leipzig defenders (individually, not collectively)
I will like to see posts when Liverpool was about to buy Salah, I am certain most of the words used to describe Werner will fit
Pace merchant, poor decision making etc To play as an attacker today you must have well above average pace. Players like Auba, Salah had only pace earlier in their career and worked on their finishing later
Pace merchant, poor decision making etc To play as an attacker today you must have well above average pace. Players like Auba, Salah had only pace earlier in their career and worked on their finishing later
@Don Alfredo
I mean sure, Werner is a good player. But I don't see a special player when I watch Leipzig. And what I tried to explain with the minutes played comparison was that while his age may only be 22, his experience is actually that of a much older player. His goal scoring record is good, but your stats are a bit misleading. 21 goals in Bundesliga alone was surely impressive in Leipzig's debut season, last year however the same amount of goals was scored across competitions, in the league he went down to 13 goals (11 excluding penalties). I reckon in terms of goal scoring he also profits a lot off of being the main finisher in a setup like Leipzig's: he's got the third highest penalty are shots taken per 90 in the league (3.2), much higher than for example Lewandowski (2.4), Alcacer (2.3), Kramaric (2.1), Poulsen (1.8) or Reus (1.8).
I also don't think his close control and dribbling is good enough to be a top class winger.
I'm aware that Thorgan's stats are quite good this season, but on one hand he gets to take the penalties in Gladbach (3 goals already this season), as well as 3 goals and 1 assists being against "BSC Hastedt" - if we just look at league contribution without penalties it's 6 goals 6 assists. If we're just looking at G+A/minute stats and take 6+6 for TH then Plea, Stindl and even Hofmann/Herrmann have a similar output. And that's compared to Hazard's supposed breakout season.
And on the other hand literally every time I watch him he kills attacks by taking a wrong decision or taking a sloppy pass/shot.
Sure, being 5 years older he's better than Pulisic, his dribbling ability is top notch and would definitely improve Dortmund, but €42m would also basically be a Bundesliga record signing and for that kind of money (and age) I would expect someone who can be a pillar of the team and I don't see that with Hazard. For a Bundesliga to Bundesliga transfer he's more like a €20-25m player to me.
In terms of current ability Zagadou is definitely overrated, but in terms of potential I would say that he deserves the credit.
I don't think anyone is holding their pace against a player and I don't see Werner as purely a pace merchant. I wouldn't compare him to Salah though, since the latter is one or two levels above in terms of dribbling skill imho.
I think he has clear limitations and he's not likely to develop into a complete striker. The best he can hope for is being similar to Aubameyang imho. Who is still a very good striker, but in the end you would buy Werner for like €60m hoping he develops into a €70-80m striker. That doesn't sound like a good proposition to me.
I mean sure, Werner is a good player. But I don't see a special player when I watch Leipzig. And what I tried to explain with the minutes played comparison was that while his age may only be 22, his experience is actually that of a much older player. His goal scoring record is good, but your stats are a bit misleading. 21 goals in Bundesliga alone was surely impressive in Leipzig's debut season, last year however the same amount of goals was scored across competitions, in the league he went down to 13 goals (11 excluding penalties). I reckon in terms of goal scoring he also profits a lot off of being the main finisher in a setup like Leipzig's: he's got the third highest penalty are shots taken per 90 in the league (3.2), much higher than for example Lewandowski (2.4), Alcacer (2.3), Kramaric (2.1), Poulsen (1.8) or Reus (1.8).
I also don't think his close control and dribbling is good enough to be a top class winger.
I'm aware that Thorgan's stats are quite good this season, but on one hand he gets to take the penalties in Gladbach (3 goals already this season), as well as 3 goals and 1 assists being against "BSC Hastedt" - if we just look at league contribution without penalties it's 6 goals 6 assists. If we're just looking at G+A/minute stats and take 6+6 for TH then Plea, Stindl and even Hofmann/Herrmann have a similar output. And that's compared to Hazard's supposed breakout season.
And on the other hand literally every time I watch him he kills attacks by taking a wrong decision or taking a sloppy pass/shot.
Sure, being 5 years older he's better than Pulisic, his dribbling ability is top notch and would definitely improve Dortmund, but €42m would also basically be a Bundesliga record signing and for that kind of money (and age) I would expect someone who can be a pillar of the team and I don't see that with Hazard. For a Bundesliga to Bundesliga transfer he's more like a €20-25m player to me.
In terms of current ability Zagadou is definitely overrated, but in terms of potential I would say that he deserves the credit.
I don't think anyone is holding their pace against a player and I don't see Werner as purely a pace merchant. I wouldn't compare him to Salah though, since the latter is one or two levels above in terms of dribbling skill imho.
I think he has clear limitations and he's not likely to develop into a complete striker. The best he can hope for is being similar to Aubameyang imho. Who is still a very good striker, but in the end you would buy Werner for like €60m hoping he develops into a €70-80m striker. That doesn't sound like a good proposition to me.
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@do.ob I don't get your fixation with dismissing goal scoring numbers. Never saw anyone dismissing Lewa's numbers because they were scored in the CL against Benfica and Athen or dismissing Alcacer's numbers because he scored a bunch of tap-ins who were handed to him on a plate by Reus and Sancho.
Salah is another player who scores lots of scrappy goals, tap-ins, rebounds, deflected shots, penalties. That's how you up your numbers and Ronaldo did this for years with goals from penalties and header from set pieces.
Anyway, even if we just take the smallest number for Hazard, 6 goals 6 assists. That is 12 goals 12 assists over a season, or direct contribution to 24 goals just in the league. That is really really valuable and out of all the players you mentioned, he has the best technique, which means he is the most useful in possession.
You get a player who can give you 20 scorers per season for the next 5 years. 42m is not cheap but also not really that expensive. The inflated prices have reached the Bundesliga as well and Dortmund is one of the biggest culprits of that. 25m on a fair market rate (no talent or risky foreign import) gives you Thomas Delaney these days and he really is far away from Thorgan.
Regarding the Werner - Salah comparison: Salah's dribbling skill is really overrated, he is below Mane and Firmino in that regard. His eye for goal and poacher's instict are what make him effective. When trying to unlock a deep defense, he has been regularly uninspiring, isn't it something like 0 goals vs Jose's United? See also the World Cup, where the creative burden was on him and he was disappointing. He needs space to play his game or someone else doing the big share of the creative work and similar circumstances apply to Werner.
Salah is another player who scores lots of scrappy goals, tap-ins, rebounds, deflected shots, penalties. That's how you up your numbers and Ronaldo did this for years with goals from penalties and header from set pieces.
Anyway, even if we just take the smallest number for Hazard, 6 goals 6 assists. That is 12 goals 12 assists over a season, or direct contribution to 24 goals just in the league. That is really really valuable and out of all the players you mentioned, he has the best technique, which means he is the most useful in possession.
You get a player who can give you 20 scorers per season for the next 5 years. 42m is not cheap but also not really that expensive. The inflated prices have reached the Bundesliga as well and Dortmund is one of the biggest culprits of that. 25m on a fair market rate (no talent or risky foreign import) gives you Thomas Delaney these days and he really is far away from Thorgan.
Regarding the Werner - Salah comparison: Salah's dribbling skill is really overrated, he is below Mane and Firmino in that regard. His eye for goal and poacher's instict are what make him effective. When trying to unlock a deep defense, he has been regularly uninspiring, isn't it something like 0 goals vs Jose's United? See also the World Cup, where the creative burden was on him and he was disappointing. He needs space to play his game or someone else doing the big share of the creative work and similar circumstances apply to Werner.
Aubameyang was a 15M winger who turned to a 60M signing and today Auba can go for almost 100M
Salah isn't really great on dribbles but he almost always makes the right movement and his finishing is very good.
His pace is also very key, Salah only 2 steps behind most defender and he wins it 80% of the time.
Check the first few pages of the Mo Salah thread and you will see comments like which will seem like what you will be saying about Werner currently
@Don Alfredo
I don't think it makes sense to equate goals from a 11:1 against a 5th divsion team with goals scored or assisted in Bundesliga or the CL. It's sort of similar with penalty goals as it's not really a unique talent. Infact Hazard has missed a couple of penalties and I'd be surprised if he were to take them ahead of Reus should he join Dortmund.
If Thorgan can delier 26 G+A (I missed an assist) a season consistently then I'm definitely being too harsh on him. But seeing as his combined G+A (excluding penalties)for past Bundesliga seasons is 8, 9, 10, 13 I don't think it's as easy as extrapolating from his most recent half-season and assuming he will be able to keep that up.
Regarding Werner vs Salah: I only watch Liverpool sporadically, so my comparison might be off.
Aubameyang played both striker and a bit as RW at ASSE and always saw himself as a striker, Klopp just misused him horribly. When he was available for like €80m no one but a Chinese club wanted him. In the end he moved for €65m.
I'm also not denying that it's entirely possible that I'm being too harsh on players, I named them precisely because labeling them as overrated is not a no-brainer.
I don't think it makes sense to equate goals from a 11:1 against a 5th divsion team with goals scored or assisted in Bundesliga or the CL. It's sort of similar with penalty goals as it's not really a unique talent. Infact Hazard has missed a couple of penalties and I'd be surprised if he were to take them ahead of Reus should he join Dortmund.
If Thorgan can delier 26 G+A (I missed an assist) a season consistently then I'm definitely being too harsh on him. But seeing as his combined G+A (excluding penalties)for past Bundesliga seasons is 8, 9, 10, 13 I don't think it's as easy as extrapolating from his most recent half-season and assuming he will be able to keep that up.
Regarding Werner vs Salah: I only watch Liverpool sporadically, so my comparison might be off.
Aubameyang played both striker and a bit as RW at ASSE and always saw himself as a striker, Klopp just misused him horribly. When he was available for like €80m no one but a Chinese club wanted him. In the end he moved for €65m.
I'm also not denying that it's entirely possible that I'm being too harsh on players, I named them precisely because labeling them as overrated is not a no-brainer.
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Or maybe Klopp just thought it might be a smart idea to play that Polish lad up top.
Once Lewandowski was gone Aubemeyang played most matches as a striker.
Once Lewandowski was gone Dortmund bought two other strikers and Aubameyang kept playing mostly on the wing. It was only after both of them more or less flopped that Aubameyang got to play centrally on a regular basis.
@do.ob Thorgan is coming in the summer
BvB made Chelsea to give up their matching right for Thorgan as part of the Pulisic transfer
I also heard BvB is signing some kid from Argentina for central defence. Do you think he can replace Akanji in the next few months or will he be 4th choice behind Diallo, Zagadou and Toprak? I don't think you will have any success with those defenders against Spurs with Kane
BvB made Chelsea to give up their matching right for Thorgan as part of the Pulisic transfer
I also heard BvB is signing some kid from Argentina for central defence. Do you think he can replace Akanji in the next few months or will he be 4th choice behind Diallo, Zagadou and Toprak? I don't think you will have any success with those defenders against Spurs with Kane
I don't take that bit about Chelsea letting go of their first refusal as proof of an upcoming transfer to Dortmund. First of all it's Bild reporting it and secondly with €40m being the supposed fee it's cheap for Chelsea to give Dortmund such a guarantee, as I don't see them being interested in buying him back for such a sum. I think it's obvious that he's a serious candidate (and removing Chelsea's option would be proof of that), but alternative options, Gladbach's demands and and the personal preference of the player are much bigger factors.
I find it hard to explain why Dortmund are buying a teenage CB for €15m. Given how little he appears to have played in Argentina he's probably not a short term option. So I guess Toprak is leaving next summer and since Akanji is injured they brought in his replacement half a year early.
But even then they will have four young CBs next season and with each of them needing minutes for his personal development one of them is probably bound to be disappointed.
I think on one hand Diallo and Zagadou have the talent/ability/athleticism to do well against an opponent like Spurs and on the other they still commit the occasional blunder. So I guess anything is possible, maybe they just have a very good game, maybe they make some mistakes, maybe Spurs will punish those mistakes, maybe they won't, that will depend on the form and luck of the particular match day. Toprak is not a top player, but nonetheless solid.
This is just another sign that Dortmund wants Hazard and there is a a strong reason to believe Hazard will want to go to Dortmund, including the current form and the manager.
Hazard's first season at Gladbach was 14/15, he played 41 matches (many times as a sub as well).
14/15 was Favre's best ever season at Gladbach, they reached third place and Favre was voted manager of the year. They reached the CL for the first time in 37 years.
There have been countless occasions in football where a manager wants to work with a certain player again and a player will want to work under a certain manager again. This seems like a sure thing.
Money will not be the problem, Gladbach wants something like 42m, Dortmund think it's too much but they have serious cash from the Pulisic transfer so they will do it for something like 35m-38m.
He will not attract interest from clubs like Bayern, so really Dortmund is his best chance.
Probably worth mentioning, Kuba Błaszczykowski has left Dortmund and rejoined Wisła Kraków. He will receive no pay from Wisla and he’s going to subside the club with €300k of his own money for them to be able to pay off debt towards current players and remain in the league for the next six months (the club is in huge debt and they can’t find a buyer because of hooligans connection, they recently were a victim of scam where two guys pretended to buy the club and then transferred no money).
Damned immigrants coming here stealing our money to send it to their homeland! /s
Nice and heartwarming story, tbh.
Wolfsburg
Seems to be talk of James Rodriguez being offer to Arsenal for a 3m loan for rest of the season.
What is it with Bayern and South Americans lately? All their fans were going mad about him a while ago and now he seemingly can't get in the team? Same thing happened with Douglas Costa IIRC.
No brainer surely for Arsenal?
What is it with Bayern and South Americans lately?
All their fans were going mad about him a while ago and now he seemingly can't get in the team? Same thing happened with Douglas Costa IIRC.No brainer surely for Arsenal?
Seems to be talk of James Rodriguez being offer to Arsenal for a 3m loan for rest of the season.
What is it with Bayern and South Americans lately?
No brainer surely for Arsenal?
This is definitely fake news
James has been injured and just returned from injury in December
Below are snippets from the interview with Salihamidzic today
Kovač on James: "We are a big club with big players. James wants to play but everyone has to do a job in training to play. Those who are not James want to play too so the competition is big. He's playing for his future, that's clear. Everyone playing for a contract has to perform.
Did James signal that he wants to stay in Munich? Kovač: "Yes. Of course!"
How are the current chances that Bayern will trigger the 42m clause and sign James? Brazzo: "We'll look at the 2nd half of the season and draw the right conclusions
He didn't play enough before being injured either. Kovac and him didn't really click at first sight. I hope this can still be fixed.
Just looked on the fixture list for the next six matchdays....."four tough games" for Dortmund......"two tough games" for Bayern Munich
Dortmund
18: Leipzig away
19: Hannover home
20: Frankfurt away
21: Hoffenheim home
22: Nürnberg away
23: Leverkusen home
Bayern Munich
18: Hoffenheim away
19: Stuttgart home
20: Leverkusen away
21: Schalke home
22: Augsburg home
23: Hertha BSC away
If Dortmund are still top of the table after Matchday 23 then we should get a cracking "Meisterschaftsrennen".
Dortmund
18: Leipzig away
19: Hannover home
20: Frankfurt away
21: Hoffenheim home
22: Nürnberg away
23: Leverkusen home
Bayern Munich
18: Hoffenheim away
19: Stuttgart home
20: Leverkusen away
21: Schalke home
22: Augsburg home
23: Hertha BSC away
If Dortmund are still top of the table after Matchday 23 then we should get a cracking "Meisterschaftsrennen".
The last couple of weeks before the winter break Kovac and Bayern seemed to work together "ok". I still think, Kovac and Brazzo are misplaced at Bayern and won´t survive this season. Kovac is tactically not on a level like e.g. Pep, Klopp, Tuchel, Allegri, Favre or Nagelsmann and this shows every game on the pitch. A fragile defensive and an uninspired offensive is everything Kovac has reached at Bayern so far and i bet, it won´t get significant better.
Absolute great numbers for a full back.
Line-Ups:
Kimmich is quality.
Is Goretzka starting in a double pivot or on the wing?
Is Goretzka starting in a double pivot or on the wing?
Müller is on the wing. Gnabry just came back from injury (guess that he does not want to risk him) and Robben and Ribery are injured.
Thanks.
Davies on the bench.
Hoffenheim look clueless.
Just here for the Alphonso.
Goretzka goal from reddit:
Weirdly subdued celebration afterwards
Amazing that most Bundesliga pitches are looking so terrible.
Winter in Germany.
It would be really crushing if Bayern ends up winning the title again.
Now that was all around great
Intercepted Hoffenheim's corner, fast counter, excellent cross by Alaba into the box, and there goes Goretzka who is somehow a deadly scorer tonight
Intercepted Hoffenheim's corner, fast counter, excellent cross by Alaba into the box, and there goes Goretzka who is somehow a deadly scorer tonight
Fecking Damo.
Goretzka's second:
1) Winter is also in England and the most pitches are fantastic.
2) The pitches in Germany have looked bad already in October.
Tell Joelinton to score now please.