That's the case in both seasons, it's just a different descriptor.
Arsenal for example are over-performing to a far greater degree than we are, and have been all season. Lots of title winners do, consistent over-performance is a hallmark of every title winner other than City for most of the "xG" era.
Arsenal have overperformed more than us
relative to their own baseline. But the key point is that their baseline is much higher than ours currently, high enough that they are within plausible overperformance of a title shot/win. We aren't.
Here's the average xG difference per 90 for first and second place teams over the last several years
22/23: +0.95, +1.28
21/22: +1.68, +1.45
20/21: +1.00,
+0.49
19/20: +0.82, +1.47
18/19: +1.57, +1.18
17/18: +1.44,
+0.40
Key points:
- City have been the best in the league for xGD in each of those seasons and are therefore unsurprisingly the team who have won and challenged for the league most consistently across that time.
- Being the best in that regard still doesn't mean you
always win the league. Both Liverpool's win and Arsenal's win this season (if it happens) saw a team with less xGD per 90 overperform and come out on top. Over multiple seasons City won out but in a one-off season it wasn't neccessarily the case.
- However,
no team outside the top two in that metric has won the league within those six seasons. Liverpool and Arsenal overperformed relative to those underlying numbers, but they were overperforming on the second best numbers in the league.
- Note the two outliers in bold, much lower than the rest. Those are our two seasons under Ole and Mourinho where we finished 2nd despite being 4th and 6th best in the league in terms of that metric. When you see how far off we were from those Arsenal/Liverpool seasons (let alone the City ones) it highlights just how little those second place finishes
really suggested a potential title challenge. We were heavily overperforming in those seasons just to finish 2nd and we indeed dropped off again in the following seasons.
- As is this season we're currently on +0.31, 6th best in the league. Even discarding whatever early/late season games we want in order to suit our narrative, even accounting for potential overperformance, that's still absolutely nowehere near the level required to win the title over the last six years.
It would be obtuse at that point to point to "crumpling under the pressure" as the reason we dropped off. We simply weren't good enough to plausibly challenge for the title this season, despite what the table might have briefly duped some people into thinking. Eventually that reality caught up with us.
And it's important to understand that, because it impacts our expectations next season. I see people saying things like "signing Harry Kane guarantees us a title challenge next season", when in reality absolutely
massive strides need to be made for that to be true. Our average performance level could improve a lot next year and still see us "just" finish inside the top four.
As this thread suggests, we need to be realistic about where in the process we are. It's still
very early days.