Being realistic

Take out everything (eg what he inherited, a couple of tough player situations etc) and only focus on results.

He's played 46 and won 33. (D6 L 7) Its a ridiculous record for where we were in August. I hope we finish top 4 without stumbling over the line and if we add another trophy I'll be over the moon, but its already been a successful season.

City for example (albeit in CL not Europa) have played 43 games this season, winning 30 (D 7 L6). So he's around neck and neck with guardiola with results this season, with the caveat of easier european competition.

For the first season, by any standard, its a brilliant record and even better when you take everything into account

Put like that you can really see how impressive it is. It's effectively a football league season finishing with 105 points.
 
Let's just say that a large percentage share very strong loyalties to a very recent ex-manager, who happened to be a former player.
Really? As a relative newcomer to this forum I've noticed a trend towards the opposite (obv not regarding ETH) and have been stunned at some of the vitriol directed at Ole. Surely though, no matter how you much someone loves Ole and can look for the good in the things he did here, nobody thinks he should still be manager.

I was expecting you to tell me they're the same ones who slag off all our players.
 
So ETH’s first season is equivalent to Ole’s best ever season, just with an actual trophy added.

Sounds like Erik’s doing a great job!
I guess that depends on your view of how Solskjaer did.
 
Interesting. The main difference is the lack of fans in attendance.

I'd be happy with us matching the end of season points total of 74 but I'm not convinced we will. Hopefully we go one better in the Europa.
Seems unlikely, especially if we get to the FA Cup final as well. Solskjaer also essentially sacked off the last few games of the season so the league total is artificially lower than our performances probably deserved.
 
I would argue this argument swings both ways. There are people here who are also being unrealistic in terms of categorizing this as a stepping stone for future success. As of today, I think ETH has a had a successful first season. But the season isn't over yet and even if we finish top 4 and let's say win another trophy this doesn't automatically mean we are on the right trajectory.

Our first full seasons under Jose and Ole were also successful in their own ways and many expected them to be stepping stones for future success. I see so many comments on here about how this is the first time since SAF they feel confident in the team and team is likeable again but there were similar comments from many fans under previous managers as well.

The success of ETH's tenure won't be defined by what happens this season, but rather what happens in the next. If we finish 2/3 next season and then again flounder the following season, it will be something we've all seen before. Being realistic also means recognizing that's a possibility as well.

Anyone expecting more from ETH this season is being unrealistic ( as he's done a fantastic job), but anyone claiming that he's the man after just one season is making the same folly as before.
 
What’s your view on how Ole did that season and what’s your view on ETH in comparison so far?
Thought they were both respectable jobs in not-straight-forward positions. I hope we get our recruitment better next window than we did in 20-21 and 21-22.
 
That's the case in both seasons, it's just a different descriptor.

Arsenal for example are over-performing to a far greater degree than we are, and have been all season. Lots of title winners do, consistent over-performance is a hallmark of every title winner other than City for most of the "xG" era.

Arsenal have overperformed more than us relative to their own baseline. But the key point is that their baseline is much higher than ours currently, high enough that they are within plausible overperformance of a title shot/win. We aren't.

Here's the average xG difference per 90 for first and second place teams over the last several years

22/23: +0.95, +1.28
21/22: +1.68, +1.45
20/21: +1.00, +0.49
19/20: +0.82, +1.47
18/19: +1.57, +1.18
17/18: +1.44, +0.40


Key points:

- City have been the best in the league for xGD in each of those seasons and are therefore unsurprisingly the team who have won and challenged for the league most consistently across that time.

- Being the best in that regard still doesn't mean you always win the league. Both Liverpool's win and Arsenal's win this season (if it happens) saw a team with less xGD per 90 overperform and come out on top. Over multiple seasons City won out but in a one-off season it wasn't neccessarily the case.

- However, no team outside the top two in that metric has won the league within those six seasons. Liverpool and Arsenal overperformed relative to those underlying numbers, but they were overperforming on the second best numbers in the league.

- Note the two outliers in bold, much lower than the rest. Those are our two seasons under Ole and Mourinho where we finished 2nd despite being 4th and 6th best in the league in terms of that metric. When you see how far off we were from those Arsenal/Liverpool seasons (let alone the City ones) it highlights just how little those second place finishes really suggested a potential title challenge. We were heavily overperforming in those seasons just to finish 2nd and we indeed dropped off again in the following seasons.

- As is this season we're currently on +0.31, 6th best in the league. Even discarding whatever early/late season games we want in order to suit our narrative, even accounting for potential overperformance, that's still absolutely nowehere near the level required to win the title over the last six years.

It would be obtuse at that point to point to "crumpling under the pressure" as the reason we dropped off. We simply weren't good enough to plausibly challenge for the title this season, despite what the table might have briefly duped some people into thinking. Eventually that reality caught up with us.

And it's important to understand that, because it impacts our expectations next season. I see people saying things like "signing Harry Kane guarantees us a title challenge next season", when in reality absolutely massive strides need to be made for that to be true. Our average performance level could improve a lot next year and still see us "just" finish inside the top four.

As this thread suggests, we need to be realistic about where in the process we are. It's still very early days.
 
Realistically we've been left with a squad full of players who aren't good enough and EtH didn't have infinite funds to rectify this. Considering what he was working with when he arrived, he's done incredibly well indeed. It'll take multiple transfer windows (if we spend) to make all of the changes that will need to be made.

Thanks to Ten Hag, we have added players with the quality and fight required to win games and minor cups, but our squad, especially outside of the first 11 is full of substandard players. Injuries, suspensions and fatigue will mean that we have to play some of the leftovers from previous managers and considering that, he's doing great. In another couple of years, again assuming we spend, we should be genuine challengers.
 
Arsenal have overperformed more than us relative to their own baseline. But the key point is that their baseline is much higher than ours currently, high enough that they are within plausible overperformance of a title shot/win. We aren't.

Here's the average xG difference per 90 for first and second place teams over the last several years

22/23: +0.95, +1.28
21/22: +1.68, +1.45
20/21: +1.00, +0.49
19/20: +0.82, +1.47
18/19: +1.57, +1.18
17/18: +1.44, +0.40


Key points:

- City have been the best in the league for xGD in each of those seasons and are therefore unsurprisingly the team who have won and challenged for the league most consistently across that time.

- Being the best in that regard still doesn't mean you always win the league. Both Liverpool's win and Arsenal's win this season (if it happens) saw a team with less xGD per 90 overperform and come out on top. Over multiple seasons City won out but in a one-off season it wasn't neccessarily the case.

- However, no team outside the top two in that metric has won the league within those six seasons. Liverpool and Arsenal overperformed relative to those underlying numbers, but they were overperforming on the second best numbers in the league.

- Note the two outliers in bold, much lower than the rest. Those are our two seasons under Ole and Mourinho where we finished 2nd despite being 4th and 6th best in the league in terms of that metric. When you see how far off we were from those Arsenal/Liverpool seasons (let alone the City ones) it highlights just how little those second place finishes really suggested a potential title challenge. We were heavily overperforming in those seasons just to finish 2nd and we indeed dropped off again in the following seasons.

- As is this season we're currently on +0.31, 6th best in the league. Even discarding whatever early/late season games we want in order to suit our narrative, even accounting for potential overperformance, that's still absolutely nowehere near the level required to win the title over the last six years.

It would be obtuse at that point to point to "crumpling under the pressure" as the reason we dropped off. We simply weren't good enough to plausibly challenge for the title this season, despite what the table might have briefly duped some people into thinking. Eventually that reality caught up with us.

And it's important to understand that, because it impacts our expectations next season. I see people saying things like "signing Harry Kane guarantees us a title challenge next season", when in reality absolutely massive strides need to be made for that to be true. Our average performance level could improve a lot next year and still see us "just" finish inside the top four.

As this thread suggests, we need to be realistic about where in the process we are. It's still very early days.

Arsenal had an xP of 38.7 the day before the CP match. They were overperforming that by a factor of 1.21.

United had an xP of 32.72 and were overperforming that by 1.16.

We were in the title race at that point despite overperforming less than Arsenal.

Since the Palace game we've gone from an average xP per game of 1.82 to 1.45 over the games since. We've also stopped over-performing (11.61 xP vs 12 points).

Arsenal in the meantime have gotten a little bit worse (going from 2.61xppg to 2.2) but they've maintained their overperformance levels (factor of 1.19 over the same period).

There's no denying our levels have dropped, both in terms of overperformance and performance. And it just happened to coincide with the media frenzy about us being in a title challenge.

The fact we likely wouldn't have won the title with our form isn't the point, it's that we clearly dropped our level under that scrutiny. You can blame it on Casemiro's lack of composure vs CP if you want, there's loads of possibilities, but it's undeniable.
 
I’m genuinely interested to know if we feel we are all guilty of having lost some perspective lately even more so when you consider Ten Hag has been at the club only 8 months. Not only that he was restricted heavily in January due to the ownership issues whilst every rival spent large sums of money to strengthen.

I genuinely don't understand what the concern stated here is or what we might be guilty of.

We are where are in the league and in the cups we're in. I don't see anyone suggesting that we're obvious favorites to win everything still in front us or that if we don't that ETH will have failed. Or the opposite, that we're overachieving and don't deserve what we have won so far or where we are in each of the three remaining competitions we're still in.

Most of us, I suspect, would acknowledge that we've exceeded expectations in the league and that we're thrilled that we have exceeded expectations. But that's in no way losing perspective.
Maybe it's just odd phrasing to get a more useful question, which would ask something to the effect whether we've benefitted from luck to be get to the point where we are now. If that's the question I'd say no, that we've earned the third place position we're in and where we've gone in each cup so far.
 
There's no denying our levels have dropped, both in terms of overperformance and performance. And it just happened to coincide with the media frenzy about us being in a title challenge.

The fact we likely wouldn't have won the title with our form isn't the point, it's that we clearly dropped our level under that scrutiny. You can blame it on Casemiro's lack of composure vs CP if you want, there's loads of possibilities, but it's undeniable.
You think our levels dropped because people perceived us to be in the title race?

Not because we've been missing Casemiro and Eriksen for the majority of those games? Not because we're playing every 3 days and the players are knackered? Not because the run of fixtures included trips to grounds we've struggled on in recent years? Not because we are putting pressure on a Burnley loanee up front because our supposed main number 9 is never available? Not because we just weren't good enough to really be in the title race in the first place (because we weren't in it)?

I'm all for the statistical analysis where appropriate but there are so many other factors at play as to why our levels have dropped & lets be real none of them are to do with a bloody "media frenzy about us being in a title challenge".
 
You think our levels dropped because people perceived us to be in the title race?

Not because we've been missing Casemiro and Eriksen for the majority of those games? Not because we're playing every 3 days and the players are knackered? Not because the run of fixtures included trips to grounds we've struggled on in recent years? Not because we are putting pressure on a Burnley loanee up front because our supposed main number 9 is never available? Not because we just weren't good enough to really be in the title race in the first place (because we weren't in it)?

I'm all for the statistical analysis where appropriate but there are so many other factors at play as to why our levels have dropped & lets be real none of them are to do with a bloody "media frenzy about us being in a title challenge".
We've been missing Casemiro because he made a silly decision in a high pressure game, causing us to miss him in an important game which damaged our momentum.

We've been playing 3 days all season, we won vs City in a game we lost earlier in the season. Our Burnley loanee is currently an improvement on our previous striker, our main number 9 has never been available.

And nobody has said we were good enough to win the title, but the fact is our level has dropped since that pressure mounted on us. That's true regardless of how likely the possibility really was. It also happened in 20-21.
 
We've been missing Casemiro because he made a silly decision in a high pressure game, causing us to miss him in an important game which damaged our momentum.

We've been playing 3 days all season, we won vs City in a game we lost earlier in the season. Our Burnley loanee is currently an improvement on our previous striker, our main number 9 has never been available.

And nobody has said we were good enough to win the title, but the fact is our level has dropped since that pressure mounted on us. That's true regardless of how likely the possibility really was. It also happened in 20-21.
He took a yellow card he had to take, it was a poor challenge but hardly a silly decision. As for playing every 3 days all season, that's as maybe but some of the players had a break during/after the World Cup, came back refreshed and after a month or so of playing 3 games a week, without players who had been available earlier in the season such as Sancho, Eriksen, Ronaldo, Casemiro, Martial, Antony etc, began to tire week on week.

If it was about pressure we wouldn't have coasted to a win in the cup final against Newcastle, we wouldn't have come from behind twice against Barcelona and others.

Also if you want to look at the games we didn't win in isolation, Palace scored from a free kick taken 10 yards ahead of where it should have been in a game we were denied a clear penalty. Arsenal were better than us and had had a weeks rest. Leeds we were poor, but in fairness we bounced back to beat them a few days later. Liverpool was obviously a ridiculous collapse after a decent first half. Southampton, we went down to 10 men early on and didn't really recover but still had one, if not two, clear as day penalties not given. So it's not all on the performances, we haven't been having the rub of the green either.
 
Whilst I’m not suggesting EtH is above any sort of criticism I do feel many here seem to have been swept away by of success this season and it’s become more of a curse than a blessing to the manager.

United are third in the league, have won the league cup, are in an FA cup semi final and the quarters of European competition. Compared to last season we are doing extremely well.

To add to this we are missing a number of players for extended periods. Casemiro, Eriksen and Martial to name three.

By comparison how do we feel City would be faring without Rodri, KdB and Haaland or Arsenal without Partey, Odegaard and Jesus? Not one at a time, but all out together for prolonged periods?

I’m genuinely interested to know if we feel we are all guilty of having lost some perspective lately even more so when you consider Ten Hag has been at the club only 8 months. Not only that he was restricted heavily in January due to the ownership issues whilst every rival spent large sums of money to strengthen.

ETH clearly knows how to coach, no coach is perfect and neither is he but the progression is evident for everyone to see. If your team has a coach who has the ability to not only improve players but also to make changes during the game that can win the game you have every right to be giddy about it.
 
I would argue this argument swings both ways. There are people here who are also being unrealistic in terms of categorizing this as a stepping stone for future success. As of today, I think ETH has a had a successful first season. But the season isn't over yet and even if we finish top 4 and let's say win another trophy this doesn't automatically mean we are on the right trajectory.

Our first full seasons under Jose and Ole were also successful in their own ways and many expected them to be stepping stones for future success. I see so many comments on here about how this is the first time since SAF they feel confident in the team and team is likeable again but there were similar comments from many fans under previous managers as well.

The success of ETH's tenure won't be defined by what happens this season, but rather what happens in the next. If we finish 2/3 next season and then again flounder the following season, it will be something we've all seen before. Being realistic also means recognizing that's a possibility as well.

Anyone expecting more from ETH this season is being unrealistic ( as he's done a fantastic job), but anyone claiming that he's the man after just one season is making the same folly as before.
I think you are missing the details in the comparisons to Mourinho and Solskjaer's first seasons. On paper we did have good results but there were plenty of grumbles and rightly so about the way we were getting them. I am not talking only here about aesthetics, there was a general feeling that we were "doing jobs" on teams. Whenever we played a top opponent, we had to change the way we played drastically and looked like a clearly inferior side that was pinned back for the majority of the game. Against average opponents, we barely if ever dominated midfield and our possession stats were embarrassing. You might say that doesn't matter if we were still getting results but the point was that it was an unsustainable way of playing which proved to be the correct prognosis.

To compete with the elite in this time and age, you need a pro active, well coached style of playing. Yes, the likes of Leicester, Chelsea and Atlético Madrid achieved success in the past decade without the aforementioned but their success did not last. They managed the one off season, only to fall drastically the season after, not to mention they kept losing their best players to more assertive and dominant teams. The dominant forces in Europe and locally played on the front foot and dominated territory without ceding possession. Real Madrid remain the only anomaly really in that regard which you can explain by their unparalleled heritage and almost monopoly on the very, very best talent.

This is what brings us to EtH. There are shades of Klopp and his first season when he did get some humiliations due to insisting on his way of playing but you could see that this is a team that was developing and honing its way of playing cemented by a good run in the Europa league. This is the first time since Fergie when we know more or less how we will play and who will play. We dominate less without Casemiro and Eriksen but you look at our stats and the way we beat mid table teams now and it's night and day compared to the JM and OGS. There is authority to the wins and the numbers back it up. We haven't been able to be as imposing against the top teams with the exception of Chelsea away and the home games in parts like Barcelona in the second half. But it would be very unrealistic to achieve that so quickly in a season where he barely had any time to coach. If anything, EtH is showing a flexibility that Klopp never did, without ever bending to be completely reactive like our previous two managers.

It is this sense of direction backed by the results of course that is giving EtH a wider backing than the other two ever enjoyed and rightly so in my view. Does it guarantee success? Of course not. As for that, you need to keep improving and add the missing pieces, not to mention take into consideration an ever growing competition. But for sure, we haven't had a manager with the coaching competence as opposed to OGS or pro active ideology as opposed to Mourinho. Now we have one and it might not be the definitive answer but at least, it's the only way that can achieve the type of success we aspire to; sustainable success.
 
He took a yellow card he had to take, it was a poor challenge but hardly a silly decision. As for playing every 3 days all season, that's as maybe but some of the players had a break during/after the World Cup, came back refreshed and after a month or so of playing 3 games a week, without players who had been available earlier in the season such as Sancho, Eriksen, Ronaldo, Casemiro, Martial, Antony etc, began to tire week on week.

If it was about pressure we wouldn't have coasted to a win in the cup final against Newcastle, we wouldn't have come from behind twice against Barcelona and others.

Also if you want to look at the games we didn't win in isolation, Palace scored from a free kick taken 10 yards ahead of where it should have been in a game we were denied a clear penalty. Arsenal were better than us and had had a weeks rest. Leeds we were poor, but in fairness we bounced back to beat them a few days later. Liverpool was obviously a ridiculous collapse after a decent first half. Southampton, we went down to 10 men early on and didn't really recover but still had one, if not two, clear as day penalties not given. So it's not all on the performances, we haven't been having the rub of the green either.
Absolutely not, it was a guaranteed yellow card which was effectively a red with a match aginst Arsenal up next. There was no justification for it other than a serious misjudgement.

I'm not sure picking out our best performances as games where we specifically didn't have the pressure of league position.

And you can say luck played a part if you want, that's your call. I firmly believe even the eyeball test shows that our performances have been worse since Palace (inclusive).
 
Absolutely not, it was a guaranteed yellow card which was effectively a red with a match aginst Arsenal up next. There was no justification for it other than a serious misjudgement.

I'm not sure picking out our best performances as games where we specifically didn't have the pressure of league position.

And you can say luck played a part if you want, that's your call. I firmly believe even the eyeball test shows that our performances have been worse since Palace (inclusive).
Ah so you think he should have just let the oppositions best player run clean through into the penalty area then. No holding midfielder worth their salt is ever doing that to avoid a yellow card.

I've agreed with you that our performances haven't been of the same level as they had been. I disagree with your reasoning and have provided multiple other reasons as more likely than the players caving into the supposed pressure of a title race that nobody ever really had us in.
 
Seems unlikely, especially if we get to the FA Cup final as well. Solskjaer also essentially sacked off the last few games of the season so the league total is artificially lower than our performances probably deserved.
We had an xPTS of 65.64

Very generous to say we deserved more than the 74 points we got, we were just very efficient at finishing our chances that season in a sea of uncoordinated and sloppy performances. I think the fact the wheels fell off not long after suggests the Ole skeptics were correct that we were fumbling our way through games without any sort of style, patterns, or dominance.

People are pretending this season's performances are better than they are also to be fair, but we have the excuse that it's the start of a new regime and it will take a bit more time to turn us into a real elite side. Ole had 3 years and couldn't achieve any significant progress.
 
I think you are missing the details in the comparisons to Mourinho and Solskjaer's first seasons. On paper we did have good results but there were plenty of grumbles and rightly so about the way we were getting them. I am not talking only here about aesthetics, there was a general feeling that we were "doing jobs" on teams. Whenever we played a top opponent, we had to change the way we played drastically and looked like a clearly inferior side that was pinned back for the majority of the game. Against average opponents, we barely if ever dominated midfield and our possession stats were embarrassing. You might say that doesn't matter if we were still getting results but the point was that it was an unsustainable way of playing which proved to be the correct prognosis.

To compete with the elite in this time and age, you need a pro active, well coached style of playing. Yes, the likes of Leicester, Chelsea and Atlético Madrid achieved success in the past decade without the aforementioned but their success did not last. They managed the one off season, only to fall drastically the season after, not to mention they kept losing their best players to more assertive and dominant teams. The dominant forces in Europe and locally played on the front foot and dominated territory without ceding possession. Real Madrid remain the only anomaly really in that regard which you can explain by their unparalleled heritage and almost monopoly on the very, very best talent.

This is what brings us to EtH. There are shades of Klopp and his first season when he did get some humiliations due to insisting on his way of playing but you could see that this is a team that was developing and honing its way of playing cemented by a good run in the Europa league. This is the first time since Fergie when we know more or less how we will play and who will play. We dominate less without Casemiro and Eriksen but you look at our stats and the way we beat mid table teams now and it's night and day compared to the JM and OGS. There is authority to the wins and the numbers back it up. We haven't been able to be as imposing against the top teams with the exception of Chelsea away and the home games in parts like Barcelona in the second half. But it would be very unrealistic to achieve that so quickly in a season where he barely had any time to coach. If anything, EtH is showing a flexibility that Klopp never did, without ever bending to be completely reactive like our previous two managers.

It is this sense of direction backed by the results of course that is giving EtH a wider backing than the other two ever enjoyed and rightly so in my view. Does it guarantee success? Of course not. As for that, you need to keep improving and add the missing pieces, not to mention take into consideration an ever growing competition. But for sure, we haven't had a manager with the coaching competence as opposed to OGS or pro active ideology as opposed to Mourinho. Now we have one and it might not be the definitive answer but at least, it's the only way that can achieve the type of success we aspire to; sustainable success.
There is a lot of post-op coloring in your post. Under Jose I saw many people, especially at the start of his 2nd season until we lost to City in December going ga-ga over the number of 4-0s we were getting.

Also, barring the home game against Spurs we haven't really dominated against any big side either. We deservedly beat Barca, City and Pool at home but some of our victories under previous managers in big games were also well deserved, albeit similar to ETH based on fast transitions and counter attack.

In fact I'd say after the WC we have mostly relied on our expertise in fast transitions and our relatively solid defense( the collapse at Anfield notwithstanding) to win games. It is inevitable given how we are playing every 3 days with minimal amount spent on the training ground that we'd resort to type, but that's my point. It's too early to judge ETH or his style of football. I think posts claiming that we are definitely better than before are premature ( better than last season definitely) but I wouldn't say we are guaranteed to be in the right track.

This summer players like Antony, Casemiro and new signings will get proper pre seasons under ETH and only then can we expect to see next season how well ETH's vision gels with this squad.

Again I must emphasize that I feel he's done a fantastic job this season, but until he actually takes the steps forward the next couple of seasons ( which is where the ground fell beneath the feet of our previous managers) it is too early to judge him.
 
EtH is now playing with house money as far as I'm concerned. I'm just loving where we are at the moment. How he's been able to juggle the squad to this point has been nothing short of a miracle. People complain about his lineups and the lack of rest, but when he does rotate, they complain about that, too. Fact is, for all the talk of standards and player and squad quality and tactics and everything else, we're the team that won the Carabao cup, and we're one of only two teams left in both the FA Cup (semis) AND European competition (EL quarterfinals), and we're still in the top four. All with this squad.
 
We've been missing Casemiro because he made a silly decision in a high pressure game, causing us to miss him in an important game which damaged our momentum.

We've been playing 3 days all season, we won vs City in a game we lost earlier in the season. Our Burnley loanee is currently an improvement on our previous striker, our main number 9 has never been available.

And nobody has said we were good enough to win the title, but the fact is our level has dropped since that pressure mounted on us. That's true regardless of how likely the possibility really was. It also happened in 20-21.

Yeah the comparison to what happened in 20/21 when we went top after beating Burnley but lost at home to Sheff Utd is apt
 
He took a yellow card he had to take, it was a poor challenge but hardly a silly decision. As for playing every 3 days all season, that's as maybe but some of the players had a break during/after the World Cup, came back refreshed and after a month or so of playing 3 games a week, without players who had been available earlier in the season such as Sancho, Eriksen, Ronaldo, Casemiro, Martial, Antony etc, began to tire week on week.

If it was about pressure we wouldn't have coasted to a win in the cup final against Newcastle, we wouldn't have come from behind twice against Barcelona and others.

Also if you want to look at the games we didn't win in isolation, Palace scored from a free kick taken 10 yards ahead of where it should have been in a game we were denied a clear penalty. Arsenal were better than us and had had a weeks rest. Leeds we were poor, but in fairness we bounced back to beat them a few days later. Liverpool was obviously a ridiculous collapse after a decent first half. Southampton, we went down to 10 men early on and didn't really recover but still had one, if not two, clear as day penalties not given. So it's not all on the performances, we haven't been having the rub of the green either.

The problem with that Palace game and many others in first half of the season is not getting that second goal. Yes we got away with it in earlier games but was bound to bite us eventually.
 
I'm not really sure in what sense perspective has been lost.

I think the fans feel it's pretty good and have reasonably big expectations we can win things because firstly the manager himself is setting that expectation and secondly we've already done it. We're also in prime position to have a stab at winning more. Not really pie in the sky stuff.

I don't think the recent poor performances have meant that many have lost sight of where we are or believe the manager should be questioned (beyond some microanalysis of specific situations anyway, which is a lot different to questioning the managers' overall direction of travel). It's kind of natural an extensive post mortem would take place when you get thumped 7-0 to anyone, nevermind them. The performances have been sloppy of late, but I think injuries, length of season, fatigue, lack of options are all tricky to manage. Indeed most of that has been considered on here in various guises.

We're in a good place, I think.
 
We had an xPTS of 65.64

Very generous to say we deserved more than the 74 points we got, we were just very efficient at finishing our chances that season in a sea of uncoordinated and sloppy performances. I think the fact the wheels fell off not long after suggests the Ole skeptics were correct that we were fumbling our way through games without any sort of style, patterns, or dominance.

People are pretending this season's performances are better than they are also to be fair, but we have the excuse that it's the start of a new regime and it will take a bit more time to turn us into a real elite side. Ole had 3 years and couldn't achieve any significant progress.
And we got 60.67 of them from the 33 games we played before it was confirmed we were only playing for the EL final. We went from 1.84 xP per game to 1 xP per game for the run in during that stretch.

You can argue about overperforming your xP not truly being "deserving" etc. but the simple fact is we did for the whole season bar the dead run in.
 
Ah so you think he should have just let the oppositions best player run clean through into the penalty area then. No holding midfielder worth their salt is ever doing that to avoid a yellow card.

I've agreed with you that our performances haven't been of the same level as they had been. I disagree with your reasoning and have provided multiple other reasons as more likely than the players caving into the supposed pressure of a title race that nobody ever really had us in.
1) He wasn't clean through on goal, if he was it would have been a red card for a DOGSO. Varane was covering.

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2) He wasn't doing that to avoid a yellow card, he was doing it to avoid missing what could have been arguably the biggest match of our season. It wasn't some surprise after the fact that he got banned, he knew it going into the match.
 
I would argue this argument swings both ways. There are people here who are also being unrealistic in terms of categorizing this as a stepping stone for future success. As of today, I think ETH has a had a successful first season. But the season isn't over yet and even if we finish top 4 and let's say win another trophy this doesn't automatically mean we are on the right trajectory.

Our first full seasons under Jose and Ole were also successful in their own ways and many expected them to be stepping stones for future success. I see so many comments on here about how this is the first time since SAF they feel confident in the team and team is likeable again but there were similar comments from many fans under previous managers as well.

The success of ETH's tenure won't be defined by what happens this season, but rather what happens in the next. If we finish 2/3 next season and then again flounder the following season, it will be something we've all seen before. Being realistic also means recognizing that's a possibility as well.

Anyone expecting more from ETH this season is being unrealistic ( as he's done a fantastic job), but anyone claiming that he's the man after just one season is making the same folly as before.

I disagree, mainly because while those other managers had nice moments in their first years we never had close to the level of structure and system that has been put in place now (the thing that actually builds the foundations for success). I'd think ETH was doing a great job even if we hadn't won anything, quite frankly I thought he was good pretty instantly when it was evident the changes in our play just in preseason and a month. Seeing our players actually know where they were supposed to be and where the space was on the pitch, particularly building up, was such a huge change from the Ole and Mourinho years of just winging it constantly in hopes that something came off.

Now does any of this mean we are nailed on to compete/win leagues and more trophies in the future? Of course not. But it certainly won't be because we hired the wrong manager or he's not the right guy at this point.
 
1) He wasn't clean through on goal, if he was it would have been a red card for a DOGSO. Varane was covering.

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2) He wasn't doing that to avoid a yellow card, he was doing it to avoid missing what could have been arguably the biggest match of our season. It wasn't some surprise after the fact that he got banned, he knew it going into the match.
I didn’t say he was clean through on goal. I said he was running clean through into the penalty area, which he was. And with due respect you’re talking like someone who’s never played the game, in that moment it was a challenge he had to make.
 
I didn’t say he was clean through on goal. I said he was running clean through into the penalty area, which he was. And with due respect you’re talking like someone who’s never played the game, in that moment it was a challenge he had to make.
Except he's not because Varane is outside the penalty area covering.

With all due respect you're talking like someone who thinks having a kickabout for the school team is remotely relevant to the presence of mind needed at the top level of football. If that was a tactical foul Casemiro had needed to make it would have been a red card, instead he should have trusted one of the best defenders of all time to stall Zaha allowing him to recover. It was never worth missing the Arsenal game for and you could see by his reaction afterwards he knew it was a silly thing to do.
 
Except he's not because Varane is outside the penalty area covering.

With all due respect you're talking like someone who thinks having a kickabout for the school team is remotely relevant to the presence of mind needed at the top level of football. If that was a tactical foul Casemiro had needed to make it would have been a red card, instead he should have trusted one of the best defenders of all time to stall Zaha allowing him to recover. It was never worth missing the Arsenal game for and you could see by his reaction afterwards he knew it was a silly thing to do.
Yes and at the speed Zaha was moving Casemiro had no way of knowing where Varane was or if he was getting across in time, and he certainly wouldn't have known if he'd have got across before he got into the penalty area. I'm also interested how you propose on stalling a player who has already gone past you without getting a booking. You are substantially overplaying the presence of mind in that moment and frankly coming across like someone who thinks footballers are robots who play the game with no emotion or feeling for the game. Players play the game they are playing in, not the next game or the game after that. Casemiro did what he felt he needed to do. It wasn't silly, it was a necessary challenge, everybody in that stadium could see that as soon as Zaha moved past him. The resulting yellow card was of course a kick in the teeth but at that moment it was a foul he needed to make.
 
I think we are forgetting something here. Casemiro is used to prioritising the here and now as he has played his entire career at a club that can get by without him in the next game.
 
Being realistic is getting the team to adopt a style of play.

Ten Hag is only in his first season. Getting any trophies at this stage is a welcome surprise but shouldn't be the expectation for the fans. We have to completely reset the culture at the club in terms of how we play and that will take time.

On top of that we have players who are not technical enough to play at the highest level demanded by our manager. Maguire, McTominay, Van De Beek to name a few.

Realistically It's going to take 2 more seasons to get us to a level where we can consistently compete with Man City and Arsenal. I'm ok with that which is why I'm not harsh on the team at the moment.
 
We are over-archiving so far, most of Eth signing are excellent or at least decent, our team has so many deadwoods/big earners and were shit for last two seasons.

Also Eth helped revive Rashford's form, stablized our defense, who would have thought we can beat this Barcelona over two legs?

Our strikers: Ronaldo, Martial, Elanga were either injured/sucks/or being a fxxker, our key playmaker Eriksen is out for 3 months, and we have no money for the winter window but still manage to sign two useful loanees.

We will get even better next season, imagine we have a real no.9 and more quality midfielders to rotate, give him more time to build, hopefully we can sort out the ownership asap, we are 3 or 4 quality players away to challenge.
 
There is a lot of post-op coloring in your post. Under Jose I saw many people, especially at the start of his 2nd season until we lost to City in December going ga-ga over the number of 4-0s we were getting.

Also, barring the home game against Spurs we haven't really dominated against any big side either. We deservedly beat Barca, City and Pool at home but some of our victories under previous managers in big games were also well deserved, albeit similar to ETH based on fast transitions and counter attack.

In fact I'd say after the WC we have mostly relied on our expertise in fast transitions and our relatively solid defense( the collapse at Anfield notwithstanding) to win games. It is inevitable given how we are playing every 3 days with minimal amount spent on the training ground that we'd resort to type, but that's my point. It's too early to judge ETH or his style of football. I think posts claiming that we are definitely better than before are premature ( better than last season definitely) but I wouldn't say we are guaranteed to be in the right track.

This summer players like Antony, Casemiro and new signings will get proper pre seasons under ETH and only then can we expect to see next season how well ETH's vision gels with this squad.

Again I must emphasize that I feel he's done a fantastic job this season, but until he actually takes the steps forward the next couple of seasons ( which is where the ground fell beneath the feet of our previous managers) it is too early to judge him.
I don't really see what you wrote here that contradicts with anything I wrote. I never said there was no excitement or people going ga-ga over Mourinho or OGS. What I said is that it looks much more unanimous now especially when you take into consideration people who are not our fans. This is the first time I remember a general consensus from fans and no fans, pundits, podcasts, ... etc that EtH is the right man. Of course that doesn't mean people were 100% always doom and gloom about us.

What you write about dominating the big sides is also something I don't see what I wrote that contradicts it. I clearly stated that this is still looking a step too far from us but relative to previous seasons, it's night and day. Things don't have to be the total opposite for it to qualify you know. You only have to look at what Rashford said the other day about playing the big sides to see that there is a clear shift in approach. Is the application perfect? Of course it isn't! We were still dominated by Arsenal and Man City but it wasn't the same way we were under previous managers. The approach and the way EtH sees the game is just fundamentally different to Mourinho's. He is the complete opposite to him approach and vision wise. When it comes to OGS, I think he also has a pro active vision of the game like EtH but the different is he just isn't a competent coach. He wanted to achieve his vision through relying on individuals to impose the game for him which is so '90s, it's just not done today when you look at how honed and drilled the competition is tactically.

Guaranteed to be anything is such a weird thing to say, there is nothing guaranteed in life. Does it mean we can't see differences and nuances unless something guaranteed? Because I don't really understand why it's brought up. The only thing I am saying is that, to compete with the elite of the game nowadays, we needed two things IMO; a manager with a clear pro active vision of the game, and second; one that has the competence to execute it. The first criteria for me automatically ruled out the likes Mourinho or Conte. The second ruled out the likes of OGS. EtH 100% has the former from what we can see from his CV. Can he tick the second box? I happen to think he showed enough to give us encouragement. He still needs more time on the training ground and to fit in a few more pieces squad wise but of course, until he applies his vision, there are no guarantees. That is the only reason in my view, there is a clear difference between what we are seeing now and what we saw under previous managers in the past 10 years.
 
Yes and at the speed Zaha was moving Casemiro had no way of knowing where Varane was or if he was getting across in time, and he certainly wouldn't have known if he'd have got across before he got into the penalty area. I'm also interested how you propose on stalling a player who has already gone past you without getting a booking. You are substantially overplaying the presence of mind in that moment and frankly coming across like someone who thinks footballers are robots who play the game with no emotion or feeling for the game. Players play the game they are playing in, not the next game or the game after that. Casemiro did what he felt he needed to do. It wasn't silly, it was a necessary challenge, everybody in that stadium could see that as soon as Zaha moved past him. The resulting yellow card was of course a kick in the teeth but at that moment it was a foul he needed to make.
Apart from the fact that he's in his eyeline :D Zaha hadn't already gone past Varane, who was well positions to stall him allowing Casemiro to recover and get into a position to double up on Zaha.

Everyone apart from the manager, who was visibly shaking his head. And Casemiro, who looked like he'd just been caught sticking his **** in the soup.

It was never worth missing the Arsenal match to stop a contested Zaha running into the box. If it was it would have been a red for a DOGSO. Even if Varane wasn't there (which he was) it would have been better to trust your goalkeeper and if it didn't work push for a winner in the 10 minutes plus stoppage time left rather than miss the entire Arsenal match. I'm sure he did think it was necessary in that moment, but it was also a stupid thing to think and if the only justification is a lack of awareness of where the defenders were then that's not a vindication of the decision.
 
Apart from the fact that he's in his eyeline :D Zaha hadn't already gone past Varane, who was well positions to stall him allowing Casemiro to recover and get into a position to double up on Zaha.

Everyone apart from the manager, who was visibly shaking his head. And Casemiro, who looked like he'd just been caught sticking his **** in the soup.

It was never worth missing the Arsenal match to stop a contested Zaha running into the box. If it was it would have been a red for a DOGSO. Even if Varane wasn't there (which he was) it would have been better to trust your goalkeeper and if it didn't work push for a winner in the 10 minutes plus stoppage time left rather than miss the entire Arsenal match. I'm sure he did think it was necessary in that moment, but it was also a stupid thing to think and if the only justification is a lack of awareness of where the defenders were then that's not a vindication of the decision.
Short of him having eyes in the back of his head, no he wasn't in his eyeline. And Ten Hag shaking his head doesn't mean it was an unnecessary challenge, there was poor play by AWB and Bruno in the build up off the top of my head, you can be disappointed with the outcome without recognising it was a foul that was worth making. You can even see Casemiro shrugging after the foul as if to make that exact point.

The last paragraph is completely insane btw.
 
ETH has done extremely well with what he was gievn
Obviously with us being favorites to finish in the top 4 and a trophy in the bag, he had done things which were far more important for us-
1. Bringing discipline to the squad
2. Camaraderie and morale is at a high amongst the players and all are contributing to the success
3. Players want to be here

ill Be more than happy if we finish top 4 and with that trophy in the bag, considering we were written off by majority and our fans. Having said , where we are now, would love a clean sweep of the cup trophies
 
The absence of adequate squad depth is starting to take its long season cost, but we're still way ahead of where I expected us to be tbh. The dip from our first XI to a team that may have 3 squad players is massive, and ETH's had to tinker about a fair bit.

Add to that the most insane schedule courtesy an unorthodox world cup and a royal kicking the bucket, and I'll honestly gladly take where things stand.
 
Short of him having eyes in the back of his head, no he wasn't in his eyeline. And Ten Hag shaking his head doesn't mean it was an unnecessary challenge, there was poor play by AWB and Bruno in the build up off the top of my head, you can be disappointed with the outcome without recognising it was a foul that was worth making. You can even see Casemiro shrugging after the foul as if to make that exact point.

The last paragraph is completely insane btw.
It's completely insane to suggest someone needs eyes in the back of their head to see someone in the direction of the person they're tackling. Especially when, you know... that's exactly where your centerback is supposed to be and basically always is.