[bringbackbebe]

xAG/90=0,08 so every 12,5 games he should get an assist. He has one which is about right, and he is likely to get another soon.

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been fewer than the expected number of sixes.

There are pitfalls of analyzing complex situations via simplified descriptive statistics or simple predictive models.

 

[Frenkie Goes 2 Manchester]

.

 

[Borys]

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been fewer than the expected number of sixes.

There are pitfalls of analyzing complex situations via simplified descriptive statistics or simple predictive models.

That is correct, but we're not looking at particular instances. In the long run, getting a 6 in 100 rolls is likely to happen 1/6*100=16,7 times. The quality of the chance doesn't change and that is reflected by xG=0,25/90 on average over a season (so far for Antony that is the number). In 20 games that should translate to 20x0,25=5 goals (which is exactly what happened for Antony), in 100 games that is 100*2,5=25 goals and so on.

As you said this is a big simplification, HOWEVER if you look at Goals-xG for the season it usually is around 0 for all players, what means this model is as good as it gets (not flawless obviously).
The more games/shots Antony takes the closer to the "expected/mean" he will get (and that is happening to him after the "purple patch of goals" at the beginning of the season). The only way to outscore your xG massively is to score a few low quality chances and then stop playing football. About the assists, my prediction is based again on the xGA/90 and the fact that he seems to be starting to see his teammates, but that is hardly something I call an "analysis", just something I think is likely to happen.

I think he will outscore his xG because he takes very low quality chances and in general his shots are quite good.

 

[bringbackbebe]

That is correct, but we're not looking at particular instances. In the long run, getting a 6 in 100 rolls is likely to happen 1/6*100=16,7 times. The quality of the chance doesn't change and that is reflected by xG=0,25/90 on average over a season (so far for Antony that is the number). In 20 games that should translate to 20x0,25=5 goals (which is exactly what happened for Antony), in 100 games that is 100*2,5=25 goals and so on.

As you said this is a big simplification, HOWEVER if you look at Goals-xG for the season it usually is around 0 for all players, what means this model is as good as it gets (not flawless obviously).
The more games/shots Antony takes the closer to the "expected/mean" he will get (and that is happening to him after the "purple patch of goals" at the beginning of the season). The only way to outscore your xG massively is to score a few low quality chances and then stop playing football. About the assists, my prediction is based again on the xGA/90 and the fact that he seems to be starting to see his teammates, but that is hardly something I call an "analysis", just something I think is likely to happen.

I think he will outscore his xG because he takes very low quality chances and in general his shots are quite good.

I see your point, but the main assumption here is our attacking play will be the same what it is currently and we will create the same amount of chances as we have been. ETH has been gradually evolving our play, first by working on the defence and then the transition play which are more or less sorted.

The attacking play is still in very early stages of development for us and other than Rashford and Garnacho (because of his age), no one else has really stood out there for contributing anything great (none of Ronaldo, Sancho, Martial, Antony, Weghorst, Elanga). Compare that to defence and midfield where almost everyone can be seen doing a great job. AWB & Dalot who were basically written off are now looking really good. It wasn't the fact that they turned it around by themselves, but the system is structured in a neat way and roles for each position is made very clear that basically anyone can slot in and follow instructions (Malacia played RB against Arsenal as well, without a right foot).

The same will start to happen in attack over the next few months. More incisive passing will occur in the final third and players will start to get into positions where their xG will improve. Antony may not improve yet, but given ETH has managed to turn around players like AWB, I have much higher hopes.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

Erik has said he needs to be more direct...hasn't he?

Yes, and perhaps he's gone too far the other way in some games - he's been too risk averse at times. That's evidence to me that he hasn't yet found the perfect medium between holding onto the ball and being a goal threat - I don't think that's a surprise to anyone who's been watching him. Ten Hag's a perfectionist.

But that doesn't mean the core of what I wrote isn't true. Antony cost that much because he was a player who could immediately provide width and structure, defensive discipline and workrate and the ability to hold onto the ball. With the idea that a greater productivity could be developed by a young player.

So criticisms about him not being explosive, or not contributing enough goals/assists at this point, should be tempered.

It annoys me seeing people say 'Mudryk [or similar] is the winger Antony should be' because Mudryk is being praised for being a game-breaker, and that's not what we needed when we signed Antony. Buying another player who is very direct and exciting on the ball might have turned the fans on, but it wasn't what we needed. We have players with that profile already.

Not to say Antony can't improve. But this is a pushback against people who say he's shit. There's a reason he's starting and Pellistri barely gets a look in. I bet that one thing Sancho has been working on in the Netherlands (from a football perspective) is how to slow the game down, to give us another player can do that.

 

[Bondi77]

Yes, and perhaps he's gone too far the other way in some games - he's been too risk averse at times. That's evidence to me that he hasn't yet found the perfect medium between holding onto the ball and being a goal threat - I don't think that's a surprise to anyone who's been watching him. Ten Hag's a perfectionist.

But that doesn't mean the core of what I wrote isn't true. Antony cost that much because he was a player who could immediately provide width and structure, defensive discipline and workrate and the ability to hold onto the ball. With the idea that a greater productivity could be developed by a young player.

So criticisms about him not being explosive, or not contributing enough goals/assists at this point, should be tempered.

It annoys me seeing people say 'Mudryk [or similar] is the winger Antony should be' because Mudryk is being praised for being a game-breaker, and that's not what we needed when we signed Antony. Buying another player who is very direct and exciting on the ball might have turned the fans on, but it wasn't what we needed. We have players with that profile already.

Not to say Antony can't improve. But this is a pushback against people who say he's shit. There's a reason he's starting and Pellistri barely gets a look in. I bet that one thing Sancho has been working on in the Netherlands (from a football perspective) is how to slow the game down, to give us another player can do that.

We need Sancho to be quicker and stronger which I hope he now is so I hope he hasn't achieved that to slow the game down.
This is the Premier League and it is a power game and the successful ones are the ones that are talented and go harder than the rest.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yes, and perhaps he's gone too far the other way in some games - he's been too risk averse at times. That's evidence to me that he hasn't yet found the perfect medium between holding onto the ball and being a goal threat - I don't think that's a surprise to anyone who's been watching him. Ten Hag's a perfectionist.

But that doesn't mean the core of what I wrote isn't true. Antony cost that much because he was a player who could immediately provide width and structure, defensive discipline and workrate and the ability to hold onto the ball. With the idea that a greater productivity could be developed by a young player.

So criticisms about him not being explosive, or not contributing enough goals/assists at this point, should be tempered.

It annoys me seeing people say 'Mudryk [or similar] is the winger Antony should be' because Mudryk is being praised for being a game-breaker, and that's not what we needed when we signed Antony. Buying another player who is very direct and exciting on the ball might have turned the fans on, but it wasn't what we needed. We have players with that profile already.

Not to say Antony can't improve. But this is a pushback against people who say he's shit. There's a reason he's starting and Pellistri barely gets a look in. I bet that one thing Sancho has been working on in the Netherlands (from a football perspective) is how to slow the game down, to give us another player can do that.

Good post.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

He keeps it for longer because he runs wide over to the touchline away from goal and then stops and passes the ball back.
The whole purpose of counter attacking is to move quickly in numbers to outnumber the opposition and Antony stops that by doing what he does currently.

You’re replying to a post that makes it clear that Antony gives us a different option to counter-attacking football by complaining that he’s not good at counter-attacking football. Seriously?

 

[sullydnl]

He keeps it for longer because he runs wide over to the touchline away from goal and then stops and passes the ball back.
The whole purpose of counter attacking is to move quickly in numbers to outnumber the opposition and Antony stops that by doing what he does currently.

The point is that you don't always want to try and counter-attack immediately. Sometimes you want to slow the game down, move your team up the pitch, let the opposition drop back, and pin them back around their own box with possession and counter-pressing. In other words sacrificing the chance to counter for control and position.

 

[Bondi77]

The point is that you don't always want to try and counter-attack immediately. Sometimes you want to slow the game down, move your team up the pitch, let the opposition drop back, and pin them back around their own box with possession and counter-pressing. In other words sacrificing the chance to counter for control and position.

Well that is not counter-attacking then is it?
That is possession based football.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

We need Sancho to be quicker and stronger which I hope he now is so I hope he hasn't achieved that to slow the game down.
This is the Premier League and it is a power game and the successful ones are the ones that are talented and go harder than the rest.

I don't think that's true. That way would make saint maximin, adama traore the ideal pl player. We need Sancho to improve his press resistance and decision making - when to speed up and slow down the game, when to dribble and when to pass. He's more of a Bernardo Silva than a Rashford type in terms of skill set, he's intricate with vision rather than explosive, and to see the best of him it would be smarter to build up the kind of player he already is.

Fans love explosive players, but the point I'm trying to make is that an attack can't be built out of just explosive players. If we want to dominate games we need a mix of explosiveness and intelligence in our attacks.

City have one explosive attacker and their attack is best in the league.

 

[sullydnl]

Well that is not counter-attacking then is it?
That is possession based football.

Yes? That's the point.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

Well that is not counter-attacking then is it?
That is possession based football.

Yes, and that's what we're moving towards, which is why we needed someone like Antony.

Because, as everyone and their mother has said, if you rely on counter attacking football, you are gonna be ineffectual and vulnerable against any team with a low block and pace.

 

[Bondi77]

I don't think that's true. That way would make saint maximin, adama traore the ideal pl player. We need Sancho to improve his press resistance and decision making - when to speed up and slow down the game, when to dribble and when to pass. He's more of a Bernardo Silva than a Rashford type in terms of skill set, he's intricate with vision rather than explosive, and to see the best of him it would be smarter to build up the kind of player he already is.

Fans love explosive players, but the point I'm trying to make is that an attack can't be built out of just explosive players. If we want to dominate games we need a mix of explosiveness and intelligence in our attacks.

City have one explosive attacker and their attack is best in the league.

I said talented players such as Mane, KDB and not players like Adama and that other clown that struggle with the basics of the game.
Players like Beckham and Keane were not Conan the Barbarian but they had great stamina and were talented footballers and played the power game.

 

[Bondi77]

Yes, and that's what we're moving towards, which is why we needed someone like Antony.

Because, as everyone and their mother has said, if you rely on counter attacking football, you are gonna be ineffectual and vulnerable against any team with a low block and pace.

I never stated that we have to rely on counter attacking football to be successful but when the chance arises in the game as they do in the Premier League they should be swiftly acted on and not wasted.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

I said talented players such as Mane, KDB and not players like Adama and that other clown that struggle with the basics of the game.
Players like Beckham and Keane were not Conan the Barbarian but they had great stamina and were talented footballers and played the power game.

Sancho definitely needs to work on his stamina, but I think what you're saying is more about him being able to make good decisions without getting knocked off the ball. You can do that due to sheer explosive speed and strength, or you can do that with speed of reaction, awareness and good decision making. When I hear talk of explosiveness, it sounds like prioritising speed and strength over decision making, awareness and intelligent play. I think ten Hag wants to make a team that is tactically aware and able to move up the pitch using patterns of play rather than one that relies on the explosiveness of individuals. I think that's how you make a team sustainable.

De Bruyne's explosiveness is more effective because it's not the only thing in his locker. Mane's effectiveness was built on ridiculously high energy pressing and attacking work-rate more than explosiveness.

My point is that Sancho would do better to focus on building up his decision making, awareness and ability to hold on to the ball rather than working on 'explosiveness'.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

I never stated that we have to rely on counter attacking football to be successful but when the chance arises in the game as they do in the Premier League they should be swiftly acted on and not wasted.

We aren't gonna score every counter attack we get, and sometimes it's strategically better to hold onto the ball and let our team regain shape. It's important to have more than one way to score. I get the sense that fans are so used to us only scoring through counterattacks that they treat our players slowing down as us wasting an opportunity and not trying to win.

 

[Borys]

I see your point, but the main assumption here is our attacking play will be the same what it is currently and we will create the same amount of chances as we have been. ETH has been gradually evolving our play, first by working on the defence and then the transition play which are more or less sorted.

The attacking play is still in very early stages of development for us and other than Rashford and Garnacho (because of his age), no one else has really stood out there for contributing anything great (none of Ronaldo, Sancho, Martial, Antony, Weghorst, Elanga). Compare that to defence and midfield where almost everyone can be seen doing a great job. AWB & Dalot who were basically written off are now looking really good. It wasn't the fact that they turned it around by themselves, but the system is structured in a neat way and roles for each position is made very clear that basically anyone can slot in and follow instructions (Malacia played RB against Arsenal as well, without a right foot).

The same will start to happen in attack over the next few months. More incisive passing will occur in the final third and players will start to get into positions where their xG will improve. Antony may not improve yet, but given ETH has managed to turn around players like AWB, I have much higher hopes.

That is all true, and I see massive improvements in our defense and midfield, but attack seems mostly disjointed to me and I think we've been really lucky with Rashford form (and fitness as well). Not so lucky with Martial on the other hand.

Going back to the original argument, Antony has been doing OK in terms of goal contributions so far, nothing really impressive but we also need to consider he is doing a lot of other stuff that makes us a better team, so I think he's having a decent season overall. His current level considering what that is his first season, not much of a pre-season etc. is not an issue.

I also see some small improvements lately. I still think he was better in the beginning of the season, probably because he was "new" and it just gets more and more difficult for him as defenders know what to expect. But again I trust ETH on this one.

I think that, with Antony, we may need to reconsider what makes someone a 100million signing. We're conditioned to feel that a 100million signing should guarantee immediate excitement, and on this metric Antony is clearly failing. It's particularly glaring when we had Greenwood recently, who came through the academy for free and was one of the most exciting and direct players at the club in the last 10 years.

I don't think ten Hag signed Antony expecting him to be like Greenwood, Rashford or Garnacho. We have lots of players in our squad whose first thought is to gun forward and try for a fast counterattack goal. But ten Hag is trying to teach us to play in a slower, more dominant way. In the Brighton and Brentford games at the beginning of the season we were incredibly brittle, and I figure ten Hag realised that he didn't have players able to hold onto the ball up the pitch and bring others into play. Rashford, Ronaldo, Sancho and Bruno all look to release the ball quickly, either in the form of a shot or a cross, and when it doesn't come off the ball comes back at us quick.

So ten Hag needed players up the pitch who are not so direct and willing to slow down play (especially considering Martial's recent injury record), and who he could also trust were willing to put the defensive work in and follow instructions. Just in order to set the groundwork for the way he wanted to play and ensure that his team could dominate games against statistically weaker teams, and not end up under pressure every game. And he needed someone immediately, who he could trust to give him that, ideally who was young with room to develop and who could occasionally chip in with a goal. Hence 100mil for Antony.

And since Antony has come into the team our ability to dominate teams weaker than us has increased so much. And our right wing no longer seems like a weak link. And he gets selected every week. So clearly he's doing what's needed with him, even though his output could clearly be improved.

Just seems like the criticisms about his output compared to his price tag are missing the point of why he was signed.

Good post. I don't question the need to have a player like that in the team, and Antony definitely brings that. However, I do question if we needed to spend 100m on a player that does that, already having Sancho in the team who I am 100% sure can bring the same things if asked to do so - especially with this transformed midfield support. In the long run it will be a question what else Antony can bring to the table. And that for me is a bit of a worry.

 

[Bondi77]

Sancho definitely needs to work on his stamina, but I think what you're saying is more about him being able to make good decisions without getting knocked off the ball. You can do that due to sheer explosive speed and strength, or you can do that with speed of reaction, awareness and good decision making. When I hear talk of explosiveness, it sounds like prioritising speed and strength over decision making, awareness and intelligent play. I think ten Hag wants to make a team that is tactically aware and able to move up the pitch using patterns of play rather than one that relies on the explosiveness of individuals. I think that's how you make a team sustainable.

De Bruyne's explosiveness is more effective because it's not the only thing in his locker. Mane's effectiveness was built on ridiculously high energy pressing and attacking work-rate more than explosiveness.

My point is that Sancho would do better to focus on building up his decision making, awareness and ability to hold on to the ball rather than working on 'explosiveness'.

We are going around in circles mate.
When I say talented that is exactly what I mean and couple that with great workrate and you have a very good power player at your club.
I think Sancho's awareness and decision making was never questioned when he was at Dortmund and rightly so purely based on the figures he was putting up and that is not what has held him back at Utd.
What is and is as plain as day is that he has to do everything he was known to be good at Dortmund at a quicker rate and for the whole game in England and hopefully he is on his way to do that.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

That is all true, and I see massive improvements in our defense and midfield, but attack seems mostly disjointed to me and I think we've been really lucky with Rashford form (and fitness as well). Not so lucky with Martial on the other hand.

Going back to the original argument, Antony has been doing OK in terms of goal contributions so far, nothing really impressive but we also need to consider he is doing a lot of other stuff that makes us a better team, so I think he's having a decent season overall. His current level considering what that is his first season, not much of a pre-season etc. is not an issue.

I also see some small improvements lately. I still think he was better in the beginning of the season, probably because he was "new" and it just gets more and more difficult for him as defenders know what to expect. But again I trust ETH on this one.


Good post. I don't question the need to have a player like that in the team, and Antony definitely brings that. However, I do question if we needed to spend 100m on a player that does that, already having Sancho in the team who I am 100% sure can bring the same things if asked to do so - especially with this transformed midfield support. In the long run it will be a question what else Antony can bring to the table. And that for me is a bit of a worry.

Sancho wasn't doing it at the beginning of the season, even though I agree that I'd think it's in his skillset. That's why we spent so much on Antony, i guess. Ten Hag didn't feel he could wait for Sancho to adjust. As we had Antony we could afford to give Sancho time to go to the Netherlands - we'll see if that pays off, but it's probably a really good thing we weren't relying on Sancho considering all the stuff that's gone on with him.

Worst case scenario Antony doesn't improve his attacking product and gets replaced in a couple of years. Best case, after a full pre-season of coaching and working with his teammates his right foot and his crossing/interplay improve and we have a creative winger who's also a goal threat, who also knows how to hold the team structure and contribute defensively.

Maybe there was another option out there who could have given us the same for less, but ten Hag knew Antony, so it was as much of a sure thing as we could expect. And I like his attitude, his aggression and his confidence - all of that helps me to believe he'll be ok. He's overcome adversity before.

 

[Jeffthered]

The thing that annoys me about these kind of posts and posters who I am convinced don't actually watch our games properly (or have memories that just reset every season like a goldfish) is we've had, for seemingly forever, 2 RBs the caf thought were awful suddenly get a player who a) knows how to play RW positionally and b) works like a dog off the ball and now both are looking like different players. Our entire team has more balance, teams don't just maraud at will down our right flank anymore and, yes, ETH is a big factor in improving everyone but it's also him signing a player who fits a system and knows how to play a specific role.

Saka until last season was putting up awful numbers but the promise was there, Mudryk we know nothing about let's be honest, Vicinus, Foden, Leao are other wing and so you should compare them to Rashford (and Leao plays in an average league). Saka, Salah, Almiron have had great seasons so far but otherwise which RW has been stellar? Mahrez? 4G, 3A in 15 games is marginally better but in a team that score goals for fun. Kulusevski who everyone raves about has played more games than Antony and has 2G, 5A. Let's see where he is at the end of the season and where we finish in all comps.

What this highlights to me is the changing nature of the fan-base, and their interpretation of data sets to inform their opinion of a footballer. Personally, I prefer to watch a player, a good number of times, and make my judgements upon that.

How you can state that Mahrez is 'marginally better' and that Kulusevski is somehow 'behind/lower' in, er...stats??? than Antony as if this means anything, is what astounds, and in some ways, concerns me, because it is this approach to scouting and coaching that is resulting in absolutely ridiculous amounts of money being spent on very average players.

Antony has shown, so far at Manchester United, that je is an average footballer, in the Premier League anyway. It is up to him, under instruction from ETH and coaching staff to address this.

Statistics are pretty much a limited context in which one can judge a players. For example, do you know who has completed the most passes in the Premiership so far this season: Rodri. And second place: Lewis Dunk.

Take from that what you wish, but it doesn't really tell me much about a player's quality, influence etc. Rodri passes the ball more than KDB. So what does that prove?

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

What this highlights to me is the changing nature of the fan-base, and their interpretation of data sets to inform their opinion of a footballer. Personally, I prefer to watch a player, a good number of times, and make my judgements upon that.

How you can state that Mahrez is 'marginally better' and that Kulusevski is somehow 'behind/lower' in, er...stats??? than Antony as if this means anything, is what astounds, and in some ways, concerns me, because it is this approach to scouting and coaching that is resulting in absolutely ridiculous amounts of money being spent on very average players.

Antony has shown, so far at Manchester United, that je is an average footballer, in the Premier League anyway. It is up to him, under instruction from ETH and coaching staff to address this.

Statistics are pretty much a limited context in which one can judge a players. For example, do you know who has completed the most passes in the Premiership so far this season: Rodri. And second place: Lewis Dunk.

Take from that what you wish, but it doesn't really tell me much about a player's quality, influence etc. Rodri passes the ball more than KDB. So what does that prove?

Both Rodri and Lewis Dunk have been very very good this season, and major parts of their teams' success.

 

[Jeffthered]

Both Rodri and Lewis Dunk have been very very good this season, and major parts of their teams' success.

Absolutely.

So what do the stats mean? That if you are not on the list, then you haven't been a part of your team's success? Thiago Silva is at No 3, and I would challenge anybody who states that Chelsea are having a successful season. And by the way, back to KDB, the best midfielder in the country, he doesn't even make the top 20.

You want to judge players on stats', I wish you all the best. The best footballers are always recognised. Stats do not change this.

 

[roonster09]

What this highlights to me is the changing nature of the fan-base, and their interpretation of data sets to inform their opinion of a footballer. Personally, I prefer to watch a player, a good number of times, and make my judgements upon that.

How you can state that Mahrez is 'marginally better' and that Kulusevski is somehow 'behind/lower' in, er...stats??? than Antony as if this means anything, is what astounds, and in some ways, concerns me, because it is this approach to scouting and coaching that is resulting in absolutely ridiculous amounts of money being spent on very average players.

Antony has shown, so far at Manchester United, that je is an average footballer, in the Premier League anyway. It is up to him, under instruction from ETH and coaching staff to address this.

Statistics are pretty much a limited context in which one can judge a players. For example, do you know who has completed the most passes in the Premiership so far this season: Rodri. And second place: Lewis Dunk.

Take from that what you wish, but it doesn't really tell me much about a player's quality, influence etc. Rodri passes the ball more than KDB. So what does that prove?

Use of stats has led to making some smart buys by Liverpool and lack of it or poor understanding of it led to ManUtd spending shit loads of money.

You don't get anything from how many times a player passed the ball, stats are never the problem, it's how people interpret it and what sort of conclusions they draw from useless ones is the problem.

 

[roonster09]

Absolutely.

So what do the stats mean? That if you are not on the list, then you haven't been a part of your team's success? Thiago Silva is at No 3, and I would challenge anybody who states that Chelsea are having a successful season. And by the way, back to KDB, the best midfielder in the country, he doesn't even make the top 20.

You want to judge players on stats', I wish you all the best. The best footballers are always recognised. Stats do not change this.

No one rates the player because they pass the ball more than others, ofcourse it is important for a CM to be on the ball more than not.

Also no one rates KdB for his ability to complete more passes, people rate KdB for his ability to create chances.

 

[Borys]

Sancho wasn't doing it at the beginning of the season, even though I agree that I'd think it's in his skillset. That's why we spent so much on Antony, i guess. Ten Hag didn't feel he could wait for Sancho to adjust. As we had Antony we could afford to give Sancho time to go to the Netherlands - we'll see if that pays off, but it's probably a really good thing we weren't relying on Sancho considering all the stuff that's gone on with him.

Worst case scenario Antony doesn't improve his attacking product and gets replaced in a couple of years. Best case, after a full pre-season of coaching and working with his teammates his right foot and his crossing/interplay improve and we have a creative winger who's also a goal threat, who also knows how to hold the team structure and contribute defensively.

Maybe there was another option out there who could have given us the same for less, but ten Hag knew Antony, so it was as much of a sure thing as we could expect. And I like his attitude, his aggression and his confidence - all of that helps me to believe he'll be ok. He's overcome adversity before.

I agree with this rationale.

Absolutely.

So what do the stats mean? That if you are not on the list, then you haven't been a part of your team's success? Thiago Silva is at No 3, and I would challenge anybody who states that Chelsea are having a successful season. And by the way, back to KDB, the best midfielder in the country, he doesn't even make the top 20.

You want to judge players on stats', I wish you all the best. The best footballers are always recognised. Stats do not change this.

If we are looking for a new DM, we should be looking for players who make a lot of passes, because that means they are important kogs in the system and can help to move/keep the ball. For example part of the reason the Cafe didn't want Ndidi a few seasons back (when he was a defensive beast) was beause he wasn't that involved in the game when Leicester was on the ball. It was obvious when watching them play but also very obvious looking at the stats. Leciester played similar setup to us right now (Tielemans/Fred, Maddison/Bruno) so now you can compare how much more involved Casemiro is for us.

 

[GledTheRed]

Saka, Foden, Leao, Vinicius, Mudryk - These are all wingers at the similar age of Antony. Lets be honest. He is fkn miles off. Will he be a decent player? Sure. But a level down player. Maybe that's enough? I guess we wait and see.

No he isn't.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

Absolutely.

So what do the stats mean? That if you are not on the list, then you haven't been a part of your team's success? Thiago Silva is at No 3, and I would challenge anybody who states that Chelsea are having a successful season. And by the way, back to KDB, the best midfielder in the country, he doesn't even make the top 20.

You want to judge players on stats', I wish you all the best. The best footballers are always recognised. Stats do not change this.

It's obviously more nuanced than just 'he made the most passes, therefore he's the best'. But it's interesting you mention Rodri and Dunk, because I think they're 2 players who are integral to their teams' build-up play. 2 players for whom, if they are making a lot of passes, that's a good indication that the team is playing well.

 

[tomaldinho1]

What this highlights to me is the changing nature of the fan-base, and their interpretation of data sets to inform their opinion of a footballer. Personally, I prefer to watch a player, a good number of times, and make my judgements upon that.

How you can state that Mahrez is 'marginally better' and that Kulusevski is somehow 'behind/lower' in, er...stats??? than Antony as if this means anything, is what astounds, and in some ways, concerns me, because it is this approach to scouting and coaching that is resulting in absolutely ridiculous amounts of money being spent on very average players.

Antony has shown, so far at Manchester United, that je is an average footballer, in the Premier League anyway. It is up to him, under instruction from ETH and coaching staff to address this.

Statistics are pretty much a limited context in which one can judge a players. For example, do you know who has completed the most passes in the Premiership so far this season: Rodri. And second place: Lewis Dunk.

Take from that what you wish, but it doesn't really tell me much about a player's quality, influence etc. Rodri passes the ball more than KDB. So what does that prove?

Genuinely what are you on about?

To boil your post down you're saying you trust the 'eye' test and then also, in the same post, suggesting it is surprising to see Dunk on the list for pass numbers. Leaving aside number of passes is irrelevant (see Joe Allen at Swansea vs Xavi), your eyes can't be the greatest judge of football because Dunk is the central player for building possession at Brighton, in the same way you'll always see Rodri, VVD, Silva etc. because there'll always be a DM or CM who is central and linking everything up. I bet our highest player is either Licha or Eriksen, I would have said definitely Licha but he's missed some games. That stat can tell you how a teamplays but doesn't really have a bearing on ability and makes me question how you judge football in general.

If you aren't using at least some statistics when judging a player in any sport you're a relic. Moneyball was set 20 years ago, everything is about data now.

 

[podurban2]

Genuinely what are you on about?

To boil your post down you're saying you trust the 'eye' test and then also, in the same post, suggesting it is surprising to see Dunk on the list for pass numbers. Leaving aside number of passes is irrelevant (see Joe Allen at Swansea vs Xavi), your eyes can't be the greatest judge of football because Dunk is the central player for building possession at Brighton, in the same way you'll always see Rodri, VVD, Silva etc. because there'll always be a DM or CM who is central and linking everything up. I bet our highest player is either Licha or Eriksen, I would have said definitely Licha but he's missed some games. That stat can tell you how a teamplays but doesn't really have a bearing on ability and makes me question how you judge football in general.

If you aren't using at least some statistics when judging a player in any sport you're a relic. Moneyball was set 20 years ago, everything is about data now.

Great post.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

Genuinely what are you on about?

To boil your post down you're saying you trust the 'eye' test and then also, in the same post, suggesting it is surprising to see Dunk on the list for pass numbers. Leaving aside number of passes is irrelevant (see Joe Allen at Swansea vs Xavi), your eyes can't be the greatest judge of football because Dunk is the central player for building possession at Brighton, in the same way you'll always see Rodri, VVD, Silva etc. because there'll always be a DM or CM who is central and linking everything up. *I bet our highest player is either Licha or Eriksen*, I would have said definitely Licha but he's missed some games. That stat can tell you how a teamplays but doesn't really have a bearing on ability and makes me question how you judge football in general.

If you aren't using at least some statistics when judging a player in any sport you're a relic. Moneyball was set 20 years ago, everything is about data now.

Gotta be Shaw for us. Everything goes through him.

 

[tomaldinho1]

Gotta be Shaw for us. Everything goes through him.

He hasn't played CB enough I'd have thought. No doubt this will be the season he's making the most passes in his United career but I doubt he can dislodge a central player even with his handful of CB games.

Also, given this is the Antony thread, we also have a competent RW so seem less reliant on everything going down the left.

 

[Oly Francis]

Well that is not counter-attacking then is it?
That is possession based football.

There's litteraly 0 coach that doesn't want to play counter-attacks and you can play possesson based football exploiting all the counter attacks you get. It's the reason why teams press high, so they can counter attack while the opponent is disorganised in his own half.

What coaches don't want (at least some of them) is low blocks with wasteful counter attacks when your players throw the ball up front in the hope that something good eventually happens, loosing buckets of balls in the meantimes. What coaches don't want is give back possession too early without creating any chance. Good teams don't slow down the pace of a play on purpose if it's a good situaton, they only do it when there's no instant soluton.

In an ideal world, you pick players that can do both : possession and very quick transitons. But these players are hard to find.

 

[Jeffthered]

Genuinely what are you on about?

To boil your post down you're saying you trust the 'eye' test and then also, in the same post, suggesting it is surprising to see Dunk on the list for pass numbers. Leaving aside number of passes is irrelevant (see Joe Allen at Swansea vs Xavi), your eyes can't be the greatest judge of football because Dunk is the central player for building possession at Brighton, in the same way you'll always see Rodri, VVD, Silva etc. because there'll always be a DM or CM who is central and linking everything up. I bet our highest player is either Licha or Eriksen, I would have said definitely Licha but he's missed some games. That stat can tell you how a teamplays but doesn't really have a bearing on ability and makes me question how you judge football in general.

If you aren't using at least some statistics when judging a player in any sport you're a relic. Moneyball was set 20 years ago, everything is about data now.

Sorry, I have missed something here: Are you suggesting that the reason Man City bought Haaland, and he was / is the most clinical centre-forward, by some way, in the Premiership, is due to 'data' ? Pep bought him because of 'data'?

Are you seriously saying that? You need data to see that guys quality, then that's on you. I certainly have seen no need to see that for Halaand and can see that he is awesome. I have no idea how many touches he has, how many chances etc... because I can see that he is clinical, efficient and consistent.

Lewis Dunk has completed the second most passes in the Premier League, and I have asked, what does that actually mean? That he is a ball-playing centre-half (he isn't..), that Brighton knck the ball around at the back a lot? You telling me Lewis Dunk is a better passer than our Martinez for example? Because according to 'data', this would suggest so.

Nothing you have stated either responds to or further pursuades me that 'data' is the critical component when choosing a player, or identifying a player. At no stage did I say data shouldn't be used. But you can pick a player without reliance on data, yes, I still feel you can.

Data should be used to compliment ability, not conclude any judgement about a player. And note, this trail is as a result of showing that according to 'data' Antony has better figures (whatever that means..) than Mahrez and Kulusevski.

And that concludes what exactly? Because I know who the better players are. I don't need data to see that.

 

[roonster09]

You telling me Lewis Dunk is a better passer than our Martinez for example? Because according to 'data', this would suggest so.

No it doesn't.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

Sorry, I have missed something here: Are you suggesting that the reason Man City bought Haaland, and he was / is the most clinical centre-forward, by some way, in the Premiership, is due to 'data' ? Pep bought him because of 'data'?

Are you seriously saying that? You need data to see that guys quality, then that's on you. I certainly have seen no need to see that for Halaand and can see that he is awesome. I have no idea how many touches he has, how many chances etc... because I can see that he is clinical, efficient and consistent.

Lewis Dunk has completed the second most passes in the Premier League, and I have asked, what does that actually mean? That he is a ball-playing centre-half (he isn't..), that Brighton knck the ball around at the back a lot? You telling me Lewis Dunk is a better passer than our Martinez for example? Because according to 'data', this would suggest so.

Nothing you have stated either responds to or further pursuades me that 'data' is the critical component when choosing a player, or identifying a player. At no stage did I say data shouldn't be used. But you can pick a player without reliance on data, yes, I still feel you can.

Data should be used to compliment ability, not conclude any judgement about a player. And note, this trail is as a result of showing that according to 'data' Antony has better figures (whatever that means..) than Mahrez and Kulusevski.

And that concludes what exactly? Because I know who the better players are. I don't need data to see that.

We use data to understand what a player is doing on the pitch. When you watch a game, you naturally notice a player more when they're on the ball, and more than that when a player does something 'flashy'. This is even more so when you watch on TV - the screen will guide your eye to actions that look impressive. But these actions aren't what make a good footballer. A good footballer, especially in defence or midfield, is often not so noticeable, because they are consistently making correct decisions and not drawing attention to themselves.

Data gives a more complete perspective that the eye test can, presuming that the data is being used in a sensible way.

The point about Antony is that he has not been particularly flashy since he's arrived at United (although has still put up reasonable numbers), yet he has contributed significantly to the team's offensive and defensive shape. Incidentally, his contributions in this sense show up neither in your eye test nor in standard opta-style data. They are also things that Mahrez has often been criticised for not doing enough of at city.

 

[Jeffthered]

We use data to understand what a player is doing on the pitch. When you watch a game, you naturally notice a player more when they're on the ball, and more than that when a player does something 'flashy'. This is even more so when you watch on TV - the screen will guide your eye to actions that look impressive. But these actions aren't what make a good footballer. A good footballer, especially in defence or midfield, is often not so noticeable, because they are consistently making correct decisions and not drawing attention to themselves.

Data gives a more complete perspective that the eye test can, presuming that the data is being used in a sensible way.

The point about Antony is that he has not been particularly flashy since he's arrived at United (although has still put up reasonable numbers), yet he has contributed significantly to the team's offensive and defensive shape. Incidentally, his contributions in this sense show up neither in your eye test nor in standard opta-style data. They are also things that Mahrez has often been criticised for not doing enough of at city.

I'm really pleased I pressed you on this, because it highlights my original thoughts. In terms of your interpretation as to how one watches a game, your description doesn't apply to me, and many people I know who love and watch footie. No worries, appreciate the discourse though.

 

[GreenFieldsGoldenBarley]

I'm really pleased I pressed you on this, because it highlights my original thoughts. In terms of your interpretation as to how one watches a game, your description doesn't apply to me, and many people I know who love and watch footie. No worries, appreciate the discourse though.

No, this is how everyone watches football, because you can't take in everything that's happening on a football pitch with 1 pair of eyes. You don't notice how, for example, the full back tracks the winger when the ball is on the other side of the pitch. No-one does, because your eye is drawn to the ball.

No one watches a game objectively, we all have things we notice more or less. The eye cannot take in everything that happens on a football pitch over 90 minutes, and so we use data and statistical analysis to understand better.

This is not my interpretation of how people watch football, it is fact based on how our eyes work.

 

[Red in STL]

I agree with this rationale.

If we are looking for a new DM, we should be looking for players who make a lot of passes, because that means they are important kogs in the system and can help to move/keep the ball. For example part of the reason the Cafe didn't want Ndidi a few seasons back (when he was a defensive beast) was beause he wasn't that involved in the game when Leicester was on the ball. It was obvious when watching them play but also very obvious looking at the stats. Leciester played similar setup to us right now (Tielemans/Fred, Maddison/Bruno) so now you can compare how much more involved Casemiro is for us.

Harry Maguire makes lots of passes, so does Victor Lindelof!

 

[Borys]

Harry Maguire makes lots of passes, so does Victor Lindelof!

Yes. Their ability on the ball isn't the reason they played like 5 games this season.