Financially, the converse is true: A lot of the past is now in the present and will unwind in the future. The previous cash indebtedness cost never reflected the pik; it grew; and now we are entering the pik paying phase where the cash cost of our indebtedness will likely be:
Carveouts (one time payment) + bond interest + swap loss unwind + annual dividend
By my reckoning, this translates to around 150m this year and 70+m going forward. These figures could be revised downwards (or not) depending on what the Glazers do with their pik-holding.
A lot of your previous reckoning went out of the window when the 20% PIK purchase was revealed though, I think, Redjazz.
You were saying at one point (if I remember correctly) that we could be looking at a net transfer budget of £5million/year.
Taking the carveouts will suck almost all the surplus cash from the club including the 'Ronaldo money' leaving the fund to replace Scholes and co pretty dry. Funds available to a new manager will be limited.
Taking any sizeable annual dividend will bring about a likely trade-off between
inward investment (facilities and player spend) and that dividend. This is implied by the JPM credit report issued earlier this year.
You're not scaremongering again, by any chance, are you? We're back to square one here, aren't we? Do you not think the Glazers ever speak with Fergie? Do you not think all this has been discussed between them? Do you not think they are aware at all of what the squad situation is and what funds are likely to be required in the future? Do you think they'll wake up one day and half the squad will be retired and they go, "Doh! Didn't think of that!"
For the thousandth time, I believe the Glazers will NOT take money out of Manchester United to the detriment of the onfield competitiveness of the squad. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to do so.
You might say, "Where else will they get it from then?" but as we continually see with the Glazers, they have tricks up their sleeves, they have options and I believe that they will find a way.
This might not be the strongest argument you will read on here and I accept that it is somewhat naive and my trust in their judgement and decision making might be misplaced but as I have said before, without having a crystal ball or the ability to read their minds, my faith in what I believe their business-plan to be is central to my stance.
Another decision from the past that will have a negative impact on inward investment is the Aon deal. Over the next 4 years (including this one), the actual cash generated by the club will be around 9m less than stated. This will have an impact on inward investment but not on the maximum annual dividend that can be taken.
What do you think, TMRD? The club can absorb the massive exodus of cash to pay off malignant debt (none of its own making and some not even its own obligation) without any negative consequence?
And the obligatory killer final paragraph full of loaded terms!
No. I think we're stuffed. United won't be here by 2017 and if it is, we'll be in the Conference.
Now that we know the outgoing costs (which appear to now be largely fixed), I think it would be helpful to know a bit more about the incoming revenues, don't you? What do expect them to be over the next seven years? Any idea?
Could the shortfall from the AON deal be made up by the increased number of other commercial partnership deals we have been setting up over the last couple of years?
Do you see any other reason to believe that revenues won't continue on a roughly upward trend over the coming years?
One thing I also strongly believe is that player wages will come down or at least freeze in coming years, too - which will help.
There are challenges ahead, make no mistake and I am not suggesting we're home and dry just yet but I can definitely see light at the end of the tunnel now and if we can get through this next few years, we could find ourselves as financially strong as we have ever been.