ALL issues relating to the bond issue and club finances

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Good summary there Pexbo - couldnt have put it better myself!

Just to add - I am a bit suprised that JulianDenny is still pushing the old 'limited resources' line when he said this just last week:

As I said in the other thread we should have around £50m for new players...
 
The 'appeal to authority' fallacy just mashes my buttons. Link doesn't seem to work by the way.

Yes I did get your particular distaste for the big financial institutions from some of your other posts! I have always said I prefer to do my own analysis but I know that many others put a lot of worth into this type of thing.

I just checked and you are right it has disappeared - it was there last night and I assume has been taken down as a result of this thread - shame as I hadnt even read it properly yet.
 
Got my postcard this morning offering me the chance to become a season ticket holder. You would think it would be more cost effective just to invite the waitlist to apply........oh wait, the Glazers have already dealt with the waitlist.
 
Just to add - I am a bit suprised that JulianDenny is still pushing the old 'limited resources' line when he said this just last week:

We're trying to look at this thing over the next seven years say. They may have some cash now but going forward ? They may struggle to make available the 25m per annum (escalating at say 10% per annum) they originally promised. Some would call that limited resources - certainly when compared with our major rivals.
 
some great input here from GCHQ as usual, includes a link to some very interesting analysis from JP Morgan - this is the first detailed analysis of our financial situation that I have seen since the bond prospectus ...

Hmm

Worst case scenario would be EBITDA of £75m and interest of £45m. Leaving £30m to cover transfers, and any other non operating expense. After accounting for depreciation I am sure we would be running losses.
 
Why do people keep saying that £1.5bn would be double what they paid for it? They paid £300m of their own money and borrowed the rest - everyone else but them is paying the rest and that's what p*sses the fans off. The matchgoers are getting shafted, simple as that.
 
Hmm

Worst case scenario would be EBITDA of £75m and interest of £45m. Leaving £30m to cover transfers, consultancy fees and any other non operating expense. After accounting for depreciation I am sure we would be running losses.

You've missed out tax too there (or does that count as a non operating expense?).
 
You've missed out tax too there (or does that count as a non operating expense?).

I doubt we declare a profit to pay taxes!

As to fees - I assume the Glazers will still be interested in taking out consultancy fees and loans.

We have enough even if we perform badly to pay the interest but then what's left for transfers etc is serioudly reduced but I suppose this is where the credit facility kicks in.
 

You seem to see the whole thing through rose tinted specs. You give the impression of believing it all because you want to believe it. I'll stick with my view that it's not been a great investment for them considering the extent of the leverage. They have done nothing to promote any Page Ranking with the fans and neither has Gill for that matter. Yes they have given Fergie money in the past but I doubt that works out net to more than the £25m a year they originally promised - so nothing to write home about. I'll also stick to me view that it could work out if they can continue increasing net revenues into the future and more importantly if they can write down a substantial part of the debt over the next 5 or so years. Nobody knows what the future holds and it remains a fairly high risk outlook.

I don't mind you or anyone else disagreeing with my views but let's try and conduct this in civil manner, shall we ? Your personal jibes are really quite unnecessary.
 
I doubt we declare a profit to pay taxes!

As to fees - I assume the Glazers will still be interested in taking out consultancy fees and loans.

We have enough even if we perform badly to pay the interest but then what's left for transfers etc is serioudly reduced but I suppose this is where the credit facility kicks in.

Exactly - ideally the credit facility wouldnt be used but it is there if need be.

As you note, there will be no taxes as they have built up a few years worth of accounting losses to protect against that - also the Glazers have to hit a certain EBITDA (i think it is £90m but would have to check the prospectus) before they can take big fees for themselves so if EBITDA falls then they wont be taking it.

Dont forget we are talking about a real worst case scenario here anyway.
 
Hmm

Worst case scenario would be EBITDA of £75m and interest of £45m. Leaving £30m to cover transfers, and any other non operating expense. After accounting for depreciation I am sure we would be running losses.

I thought interest was 56 million on the bond?

Plus PIKs which are obviously the clubs responsibility in reality.


Who the feck believes the Glazer's got offered 1.5 billion!? That is bullshit straight from the Glazer's PR machine.
 
Again, Panorama bbc 1, 7 june, United and the glazers debt etc.
 
I thought interest was 56 million on the bond?

Plus PIKs which are obviously the clubs responsibility in reality.


Who the feck believes the Glazer's got offered 1.5 billion!? That is bullshit straight from the Glazer's Page Ranking machine.

I am only going on GCHQ figures of what the interest is and it's about right when you consider the rate on the bonds are between 8.375 and 8.75 across 2 tranches.

The PIKS are on RFJV but secured against United so yeah paying them off will fall on United no doubt.

As to the offer of £1.5bn I think that is pure bull and speculation.

I believe the Glazers invested £260m of their own money. There are circa £720m in debt. For a total of £980m.

Someone paying £1.5bn would mean the Glazers clear circa £500m on their £260m investment. Not taking into account any fees they have taken but making £500m profit on £260m in 5 years is pretty awesome.

If the offer was real they would have taken it.
 
A small bit from the daily mail online...

The Glazer family keep the lowest of profiles around Old Trafford. But their consuming interest in Manchester United’s London-based commercial operation is such Joel Glazer is in daily contact with the high command, whose secrecy extends to there being no mention of United’s presence in or on the building. Such has been the success of United’s global brand building, though, even the most commercial-savvy sport, Formula One, are looking to follow United’s blueprint.
 
I only had a brief look last night so will check it when I have time

Thanks to GCHQ again - not sure why he is still languishing down in the Newbies.
Not impressed with the headline statement:

'In our view the threats of increasing industry wages and transfer fees, competition for talent and potential aggressive entrants into the market are easing'.

In an environment where an ordinary player like Milner is being quoted at £30M and would want about £100K a week? Man City have just arrived and will flex their muscles some more, Liverpool are likely to be sold in the next few months and even Spurs are now a more desirable take-over target? And Ferguson says there's no value in the market?
 
Not impressed with the headline statement:

'In our view the threats of increasing industry wages and transfer fees, competition for talent and potential aggressive entrants into the market are easing'.

In an environment where an ordinary player like Milner is being quoted at £30M and would want about £100K a week? Man City have just arrived and will flex their muscles some more, Liverpool are likely to be sold in the next few months and even Spurs are now a more desirable take-over target? And Ferguson says there's no value in the market?

Well Platini is bringing in new rules which may stop the investment or gold rush that City and Abramovich have funded.

But rules can be worked around!
 
You seem to see the whole thing through rose tinted specs. You give the impression of believing it all because you want to believe it.

Believing what? I have made my mind up not reading articles in the Daily Mail but by actually taking time out to have a look at a wide range of our financial figures and then put the picture back together myself. I'd like to repeat that I am not a Glazer supporter but I'm not ignorant enough to get into this popular notion that they are somehow damaging United. They are certainly not doing anything to endear themselves to us supporters but I still have a theory (which could be completely wrong) that the reason they do no P.R work and are not quashing these rumours that we are in a much better financial state than the media would have you believe is because it puts them in a much stronger position when negotiating their largest outlay. Player Transfers.

I'll stick with my view that it's not been a great investment for them considering the extent of the leverage. They have done nothing to promote any Page Ranking with the fans and neither has Gill for that matter.

What do you actually expect them to do? Put a little picnic basket on each season ticket holder's chair and a little card with a sorry inside?

From their point of view, they are in the right. Again I am being objective here and I don't share this opinion with them but all they have done is increase season tickets and introduced a "cup scheme". If you look at season ticket prices, we are still not nearly as expensive as other teams.

Last year, £513 was our cheapest and £931 our most expensive. Now I know that this goes up with the cup scheme, but value wise you are still getting more matches.

Chelsea's are £520 and £1125 in that shit heap Stamford Bridge while Arsenals start at £855 and go right up to £1825, nearly double ours.

So how are they supposed to look at it? The team has had unprecedented success under their ownership and it was only last season when Tevez manouvred his way out of Old Trafford and Ronaldo left for a huge sum, one we wouldn't have accepted but for his wish to go to Madrid. Ferguson then identified £30m target Benzema who then went to Madrid.... You would rather he went and panic bought and spunked £30m on a player who he felt wasn't perfect for the team in some way?


Yes they have given Fergie money in the past but I doubt that works out net to more than the £25m a year they originally promised - so nothing to write home about. I'll also stick to me view that it could work out if they can continue increasing net revenues into the future and more importantly if they can write down a substantial part of the debt over the next 5 or so years. Nobody knows what the future holds and it remains a fairly high risk outlook.

£25m a year average isn't enough to keep this team competitive? That's just sheer muppetry.

Paying off the debt is not an issue like I said before, if they manage to resturucture the PIK's into a debt with much less interest, which I think they will as there should be plenty takers now that they are starting to show some real increase in turnover. Then there will be a very manageable sum to pay each year while the club churns over a very healthy profit.

The fact they have chosen not to use this cash reserve to pay off the PIK could well be a P.R exercise however it could also be a sign that another restructe is coming up. Paying a large sum of it off now, could work our more costly than decreasing the interest rate on it and paying less in the future.

I don't mind you or anyone else disagreeing with my views but let's try and conduct this in civil manner, shall we ? Your personal jibes are really quite unnecessary.

I think I'm being very civil personally. :cool:
 
Well Platini is bringing in new rules which may stop the investment or gold rush that City and Abramovich have funded.

But rules can be worked around!

This is another reason I think we could actually be holding back.

No one knows quite yet just how it is going to work, but as our turnover increases and increases, it makes perfect "business" sense to be smart with the money for a few years, keeping us competitive and then when this rule comes into full effect we will once again be back to where we were around 2000-2003. Back then there were no real sugar daddies and the transfer market was dictated by the clubs who earnt the most cash. It was United who could offer the most.

Let's say for example, the cap sees us with a transfer cap of £30m each season. The biggest transfer cap in the world alongside Madrid.

The new Wayne Rooney appears on the scene, we can offer £30m while Man City and Chelsea are stuck with a budget of £15m can only watch on enviously as we agree a deal for £20m.

There is the question of wether clubs would accept that £20m as it seems a paltry sum these days but when the alternative is to wait and watch the player become a free transfer I don't they have no choice.

Now from a business point of view, they could spend £150m-£250m over the next 3-4 years getting the best players, or they could wait until the rule is in effect knowing they can still challenge with the team they have, fortified with a few sharp signings (Owen?) and then be the kings of the transfer window once again getting players for a percentage of their current cost.

It's business sadly, and that is why I am anti-Glazer, because they are making business decisions to suit them rather than footballing decisions to challenge for the Premier and Champions League every season.

We are just very lucky that it's a "Goose laying the Golden Eggs" scenario. They have to keep The Goose, the football team, healthy otherwise those golden eggs start to dry up.

One mighty misplaced ego is more likely. I won't be wasting anymore time on this silly exchange.

:lol:

How has anything I have been discussing with you shown any signs of any ego?!
 
Pexbo

The problem I have with the rules is they want to restrict clubc to spend what they can earn.

Now what stopping Man City owners buying some expensive land for £150m, then selling it to Man City for £75m a year later who then flip it for say £150m. They have earned that £75m - money which can be spent on players etc.

Unless UEFA is going to be looking into every clubs accounts they could be easily circumvented.
 
Pexbo

The problem I have with the rules is they want to restrict clubc to spend what they can earn.

Now what stopping Man City owners buying some expensive land for £150m, then selling it to Man City for £75m a year later who then flip it for say £150m. They have earned that £75m - money which can be spent on players etc.

Unless UEFA is going to be looking into every clubs accounts they could be easily circumvented.

I **** that is what everyone is wondering. I can only guess that they will limit the qualifying criteria to matchday revenue, merchandising and player transfers. Then they can monitor these areas for anomalies, what's to stop Man City suddenly selling 10m shirts in India? That would surely be investigated.
 
Pexbo

The problem I have with the rules is they want to restrict clubc to spend what they can earn.

Now what stopping Man City owners buying some expensive land for £150m, then selling it to Man City for £75m a year later who then flip it for say £150m. They have earned that £75m - money which can be spent on players etc.

Unless UEFA is going to be looking into every clubs accounts they could be easily circumvented.

I imagine that, if these rules come into play, then something like that would see them thrown out of the Premier League with their UEFA license revoked. You may as well ask what would happen if a defender handles the ball in the box but he was wearing gloves so it never actually touched the skin on his hands.
 
I **** that is what everyone is wondering. I can only guess that they will limit the qualifying criteria to matchday revenue, merchandising and player transfers. Then they can monitor these areas for anomalies, what's to stop Man City suddenly selling 10m shirts in India? That would surely be investigated.

The only cause for concern is, if these rules are too restrictive they could fight them under EU law on restraint of trade.
 
I imagine that, if these rules come into play, then something like that would see them thrown out of the Premier League with their UEFA license revoked. You may as well ask what would happen if a defender handles the ball in the box but he was wearing gloves so it never actually touched the skin on his hands.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

You on crack? :boring:

If you are wearing a full sleeve shirt and the ball hits your arm but does not touch your skin its still handball.

It does not have to come in contact with your skin to be handball.
 
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

You on crack? :boring:

If you are wearing a full sleeve shirt and the ball hits your arm but does not touch your skin its still handball.

It does not have to come in contact with your skin to be handball.

Well, yes, Einstein, i know that. I was using that as an example of a futile loophole.

The rules will limit the amount of cash 'sugar daddies' will be able to pour into the clubs to fund transfers and high wages, though they will be allowed to finance capital projects such as stadiums and academies.

Attempts to bypass the rules by owners handing out huge sponsorship contracts to their clubs from other companies they own will also be checked by an independent watchdog panel appointed by UEFA to ensure they are not paying above the market value.

So you see, your example of a loophole was so blindingly obvious, it would be ridiculous to imagine that UEFA might have overlooked it, and so it was no more credible than suggesting that a defender might get away with handling the ball if he was wearing gloves.

Do you understand?
 
Not impressed with the headline statement:

'In our view the threats of increasing industry wages and transfer fees, competition for talent and potential aggressive entrants into the market are easing'.

In an environment where an ordinary player like Milner is being quoted at £30M and would want about £100K a week? Man City have just arrived and will flex their muscles some more, Liverpool are likely to be sold in the next few months and even Spurs are now a more desirable take-over target? And Ferguson says there's no value in the market?

Well I would focus on the financial analysis - the rest is probably just padded out by some kind of work experience student!


Daily Yuk. So Formula 1 which makes hundreds of millions if not billions is going to follow United who turned over circa £65m in commercial revenues.

I think the point is more about leveraging a sports brand into new revenue opportunities. Our club is yet again leading the way and all others will follow.
 
I notice that GCHQ has now been promoted (cheers Sultan!) so this will be his last message sent via me!

"Hi again.

I noticed this comment from Andersred on his blog and seeing as he is a well respected and trusted figure inside the anti-Glazer movement I think it brings to a close the discussion about the relevance of goodwill amortisation.

Here is his comment:

ANDERSRED

I totally agree with your description of the impact of goodwill on Red Football’s accounts. It’s an irrelevant non-cash item that should be stripped out of any analysis of Red Football’s (or RFJV’s) profits.

I don’t think you are on the Red Issue Sanctuary, but I was making exactly this point to various people on that forum as long ago as May 2008. To quote myself:

“Last year the company lost £63m but £35m of that was amortisation of goodwill which is just an accounting treatment - nobody ever went bust that way (Vodafone "lost" £5bn in 2003 because it had to charge £12bn of goodwill amortisation. I think that's the biggest UK plc "loss" in history and it doesn't look bust to me).”

I have NEVER used the “would have lost money without selling Ronaldo” argument as it’s spurious. I have NEVER briefed journalists along those lines and I have encouraged MUST not to. I said the following in an email to someone and gave him my permission to post it on the Red Cafe forum (you can Google it if you want):

“The idea that United could go bust under the current structure is wrong and people saying it don't help the cause.”

Useful I thought.

Regards,

GCHQ"

I think by now all the rational people on here have accepted the point about how 'amortisation of goodwill' hides a lot of our annual profit.
However, more interesting to note is how Andersred basically admits that he has had to ask MUST to stop spreading misinformation about our financial situation like the infamous 'we only made a profit because we sold Ronaldo' myths.
That last quote from Andersred is one that I have tried to highlight before.
 
I don't get what point Andersred is making. Everybody is happy to ingore the amortisation of goodwill, but even having done that the profit goes up from £25m to £60m. Given that Ronaldo went for £80m, it doesn't do much to dispell the "myth".

I know you like to bring in other factors and try and engineer yourself a friendly looking estimate of cashflow, Roodboy, but the Andersred quotes is only talking about a) The profit figure and b) the effect of the goodwill amortisation on it.

And as for "had to ask MUST to stop spreading misinformation"... you really could write for a tabloid couldn't you? You have perfect blend of sensationalism and brazen hypocrisy.:smirk:
 
Well, yes, Einstein, i know that. I was using that as an example of a futile loophole.



So you see, your example of a loophole was so blindingly obvious, it would be ridiculous to imagine that UEFA might have overlooked it, and so it was no more credible than suggesting that a defender might get away with handling the ball if he was wearing gloves.

Do you understand?

I used that example to be obvious. In reality once the details are out there will be clever people working ways around and I am pretty confident there will be ways around it. Heck we have a multi billion pound tax advisory industry and I am sure there will be demand for innovative schemes to work around the rules.
 
Writing off goodwill is nothing new - heck AOL Time Warner wrote off $54bn post their merger with Times Warner. It was a fair charge due to the loss in value of the merged business.

The issue for me regards the Ronaldo money is - was it all or part ringfenced for transfers? Or will it be used to pay down the PIKs?
 
I don't get what point Andersred is making. Everybody is happy to ingore the amortisation of goodwill, but even having done that the profit goes up from £25m to £60m. Given that Ronaldo went for £80m, it doesn't do much to dispell the "myth".

I know you like to bring in other factors and try and engineer yourself a friendly looking estimate of cashflow, Roodboy, but the Andersred quotes is only talking about a) The profit figure and b) the effect of the goodwill amortisation on it.

And as for "had to ask MUST to stop spreading misinformation"... you really could write for a tabloid couldn't you? You have perfect blend of sensationalism and brazen hypocrisy.:smirk:

Well if you dont get it then why dont you message Andersred and ask him then?

I would explain it to you but you probably wouldnt believe me anyway so I wont waste my time. I really don't see what I have said there that would be classed as sensationalist or hypocritical at all.


Writing off goodwill is nothing new - heck AOL Time Warner wrote off $54bn post their merger with Times Warner. It was a fair charge due to the loss in value of the merged business.

The issue for me regards the Ronaldo money is - was it all or part ringfenced for transfers? Or will it be used to pay down the PIKs?

No one is saying it is anything new.
I dont think it was ever officially ringfenced and I think the constant focus on what has happened to the Ronaldo money is all a bit pointless to be honest - makes good headlines though I suppose.
 
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