RFK's wife (Cheryl Hines of Larry David fame) has been complaining he's not getting secret service protection, as if he should get it because he's polling in the 20s.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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Cuomo actually tells Vivek Nikki Haley kicked his ass. 
Predictably, Vivek's merry band of incel twitter followers are branding this as owning the MSM.
Predictably, Vivek's merry band of incel twitter followers are branding this as owning the MSM.
Cuomo actually tells Vivek Nikki Haley kicked his ass.
Predictably, Vivek's merry band of incel twitter followers are branding this as owning the MSM.
She's done it multiple times. Every time the discussion has turned to foreign policy in the Republican debates, she makes it obvious that he has toddler level understanding of geopolitics. All he has in that area is the "I won't drag young Americans into unnnecessary wars", which is pretty hollow since that is neither Biden's nor Haley's strategy when it comes to Ukraine or Israel.
I was saying it months ago. I know it is early and polls can be wrong, but Trump is going to win.
The criminal trials are not hurting him and it would seem that some may not be heard before the election, especially the classified docs trial, which would be the easiest to explain to the public.
If and when he debates Biden, he will sweep the floor with him. To the public, he will seem far younger, even if he will talk absolute BS.
At what point does Biden wake up and realize he could be about to let Trump back in?
The criminal trials are not hurting him and it would seem that some may not be heard before the election, especially the classified docs trial, which would be the easiest to explain to the public.
If and when he debates Biden, he will sweep the floor with him. To the public, he will seem far younger, even if he will talk absolute BS.
At what point does Biden wake up and realize he could be about to let Trump back in?
There isn't another Democrat that could beat Trump at this moment in time, Harris certainly couldn't neither would Mayor Pete, Newsom and Whitmer aren't known well enough nationally
Edit: Now if Oprah and/or Michelle ran that would be a different story but thats not gonna happen
The same argument could've been made 4 years ago when Biden beat Trump in the debates then proceeded to win the election with an unprecedented amount of votes.
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If there was a centre right pro choice pro lgbt pro liberties anti trump republican with big name recognition who wasn’t born in Austria it could very well work for the dems.
Stacy Abrams could have been good.
If there was a centre right pro choice pro lgbt pro liberties anti trump republican with big name recognition who wasn’t born in Austria it could very well work for the dems.
Stacy Abrams could have been good.
If there was a centre right pro choice pro lgbt pro liberties anti trump republican with big name recognition who wasn’t born in Austria it could very well work for the dems.
Stacy Abrams could have been good.
[/QUOTE]
The former yep, the latter nope
I'm honestly amazed that Trump is even in the race, let alone having a chance to win it.
I honestly thought that his mandate, January 6th and the lawsuits hanging on his fat orange ass would've cured America from voting for or even considering such a demagogue and sociopath as a serious candidate for the US presidency, and that's not even taking his age into account.
Looks like there's still work to do. Not that it's particularly better in Europe where a global shift to the (far) right seems to be the trend.
Happy times.
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On a personal level, he's running to stay out of prison since being President would allow him to get out of most (not all) legal trouble. He also continues to have a cult like stranglehold on core Republican voters, which is suffocating the other R candidates into distant contenders, many only in the race to jostle for potential VP consideration.
In terms of Trump's chances next year, anything can happen, but what those who think Trump will win don't seem to factor in is that you can't win the Presidency without independents (who make up approximately 50% of voters), and independents have long since ditched Trump. The only thing he may have going for him is an unprecedented amount of third party candidates who will take votes from both Trump and Biden (Kennedy, Jill Stein, Cornell West etc).
He doesn't have enough independents in his corner. No indies, no party.
Agree re Harris. Hated.
Pete - gay and the airports are fecked.
Whitmer - i like het.
For me, Newsom needs to step up. Although, the knock against him would be most people hate California's holier than thou attitude and Trump will drum home the homeless issues in San Fran and LA.
Honestly feel that Biden had aged 15 years in 4 years. And it has been drilled into peoples brains that Biden is old. When he gets up on stage in a debate, he will look far older.
4 years later, Trump is just the same. If a giant meteorite hits the earth, the only things left will cockroach's and Donald Trump.
Airports have been fecked since Reagan sacked all the ATC folks and also because GOP failed to pass an infrastructure bill
Whitmer and Newsom are not known well enough nationally, aside from being a little piece of shite it's partly why De Santis is flailing
The reality is that no serious Democrat will run against an incumbent President of their own party
Biden has definitely aged a bit, but that won't play into whether or not people vote for him or Trump. The masses turned out last time to keep Trump out of the Presidency, so they're not likely to change their minds just because both guys are a bit older. Also, Trump could very well be in jail and the prospect of potential jail time can't be ignored when it comes to public perceptions of him being a viable candidate a year from now.
I believe that is a fringe benefit. He would be running regardless.
And if he loses and doesn't end up with a criminal record, he will run again in 2028.
Too much nuance for the majority of American voters.
Whoever is or was last in charge, carries the can.
He is failing because he is not Trump.
That is why someone needs to sit Joe down in his favorite rocking chair and tell him that him running is a risk to American democracy, as there is a very good chance he lets Trump back in.
He will be 82 if he is sworn in again in Jan 2025. Yes, Trump is only a 4 years younger, but 80+, in the minds of many, is just way too old.
Who has more chance of beating Trump? Biden or Newsom?
Is true. Also why I think the best dem strategy would be a new VP like Oprah/Michelle. (not gonna happen but would tip the scales)
People don’t want Harris to be president, and people are unconvinced Biden wI’ll last 4 years. I don’t have any deep polling to support these two hypotheses, but they seem like common sense and tangential polls seem to support them. That said, Harris helps with black voters. (Women in this bracket will vote dem regardless)
Hoping I’ll be allowed to work on this election.
Ps. This isn’t simply a democratic side issue. On the republican side, if they managed to nominate Haley for example, she’d destroy Biden on current polling. A few others would fare better than Trump too. Theres a growing mass of evidence that he’s one of the worst GOP options.
Both parties are essentially locked into candidates that are neither in their nor the countries best interests.
Both parties are essentially locked into candidates that are neither in their nor the countries best interests.
She would do much better than Trump, that's for sure. Likewise, Newsom would do much better for Dems.
Biden - he can can get votes from center-right voters, Newsom is seen by many as a radical left winger or in US parlance a socialist/communist, his turn is 2028
Trump is not getting back in, he doesn't have enough support as already pointed out, with Independents and women, he can't win without them
Haley is a reasonable choice but but I would say that Christie would be the GOP's better option, a lot of the US public still aren't ready for a female president
Polling I've seen says otherwise.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...es-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html
Takeaway: DeSantis is DIW, Haley destroys Biden, Trump/Biden is tight. Americans want Biden gone. They don't want Trump either
The 'generic candidate' one is interesting.
Takeaway: DeSantis is DIW, Haley destroys Biden, Trump/Biden is tight. Americans want Biden gone. They don't want Trump either
The 'generic candidate' one is interesting.
These polls from the Times are pointless. Such a small sample size of people answering their land lines or cell phones not knowing who the caller is, is not a representative sample of the electorate. They are designed to get clicks and shares and make money.
Edit: and apparently in this specific poll, republicans were oversampled.
I always hear this criticism of polling but on reddit it's repeatedly pointed out that polling in the last elections were actually reasonably accurate and pollsters are constantly refining their methods so the "landline" argument doesn't quite hold anymore.
You've been more bullish on the possibility of Trump being in jail than anyone I've heard, personally or in the media. I personally don't think there is much chance Trump actually ends up in jail.
The other thing I think you might be underestimating is the influence of GOP voter suppression + their control of the SC. I think there is a higher likelihood of a 2000 Florida scenario that helps Trump than Trump being in jail but I tend to be cynical about these things. Happy to be proven wrong there but I just don't see it myself and I think because of the above Trump has a greater chance of winning the EC (obviously not the popular vote) than the optimists recognize.
I'm not bullish about it, I just recognize that its a real possibility based on the charges in 5 or 6 different cases, several of which involve jail time if convicted. It can't therefore be ruled out as many seem to do when attempting to size up next year's Presidential elections. There is a legit change he goes to prison and based on recent polling, a sizable chunk of voters would flip their votes to the other side if Trump becomes a convicted felon. It is therefore not insignificant when analyzing the 2024 election.
The election is about more than just this guy is old. GOP haven't won the popular vote in 14 years. And they won't this time either. Abortion is still going to be a massive galvanizing get out the vote issue. Every single GOP candidate has been on the wrong side of the issue to date. Including Trump who has been running around taking credit for ending Roe v Wade. Can they finally learn to pivot and at least pretend to take a reasonable stance on abortion in the next year? That would be the smart play but they are still acting like it will all blow over. Or in the case of the Ohio legislature, if you lose with the voters then try to scheme to invalidate what was voted for in courts.
As others have stated the GOP is doing absolutely nothing to broaden their base. They are not running on any actual policies. They look like clowns who cannot govern.
Trump's company has already been found guilty of fraud in his bench trial. He is acting like an idiot with the Judge who will decide what the penalty is. So likely hundreds of millions. In his Georgia case, his lawyers and co conspirators are flipping and providing testimony against him. Will he actually go to jail? It is not impossible.
At any rate in these omg Trump will win scenarios the suggestion is people will just run out in record numbers to vote for a twice impeached, fraud and not Biden because he is old.
Trump will still get millions of votes from his base. The race will still come down to battleground states and turnout. But, the plusses in Bidens favor, including actual recent elections show Democrats and Independents are motivated not only to keep Trump out but to not let even a chance of a national abortion ban be in the cards.
As others have stated the GOP is doing absolutely nothing to broaden their base. They are not running on any actual policies. They look like clowns who cannot govern.
Trump's company has already been found guilty of fraud in his bench trial. He is acting like an idiot with the Judge who will decide what the penalty is. So likely hundreds of millions. In his Georgia case, his lawyers and co conspirators are flipping and providing testimony against him. Will he actually go to jail? It is not impossible.
At any rate in these omg Trump will win scenarios the suggestion is people will just run out in record numbers to vote for a twice impeached, fraud and not Biden because he is old.
Trump will still get millions of votes from his base. The race will still come down to battleground states and turnout. But, the plusses in Bidens favor, including actual recent elections show Democrats and Independents are motivated not only to keep Trump out but to not let even a chance of a national abortion ban be in the cards.
It seems to be a bit of a GOP conspiracy theory at the moment that the NYT is trying to prop up Haley after the WP backed her. (Not saying above poster is part of this) Reality is, these polls are generally relatively accurate, and 3600ish is a large enough number and the methodology is rigorous. Unless you have a specialist poster like Iowa do, these are generally the best you get.
Ultimately though, trust in pollsters is as important as the polling itself. That said, I stand by the short takeaways from the adobe one.
That sounds bullish to me. I don't believe, and I haven't anyone else really believe there is a "legit chance" that he goes to prison. Personally, I think there is almost no chance he actually goes to prison because he still is a former President, wealthy, and I have very little faith in the US judicial system. I'll believe it when it happens, until then, I think it's a pipe dream of Democrats to think he has a realistic chance at going to prison.
Legit chance means he could legitimately go to jail as the charges he is up against are felonies (91 of them to be precise), most of which could land a defendant in jail. Trump is an ordinary citizen in the present and wouldn't be immune from going to prison. If there are any other instances where a person under indictment on 91 felony counts didn't go to jail, then it would be an extreme outlier. Therefore legit chance isn't being bullish, its being realistic.
If he wasn't a former president he'd almost certainly be in jail already, the average person like us would never get away with the statements and witness intimidation tactics that Trump has gotten away with so far, there's a tipping point and he's close to it and all it will take in some idiot to do something based on what Trump has said
It's not whether he legally could theoretically go to jail. It's whether that is likely to happen in a US judicial system that is exceptionally biased in favor of rich, powerful individuals. Good luck with that.
And let's not pretend there is any real precedent here because there isn't. Almost all these cases are entirely unprecedented and untested legally. 34 of those charges are related to Stormy Daniels, a case that seems very unlikely to end in prison time even if its theoretically possible. Another 40 related to the classified documents case which doesn't seem very likely to end in jail time either because the judge is a Trumper. In the Georgia case, he is almost certainly going to claim 1st Amendment and that will be a strong defense whether we like it or not. Jan. 6, I have a hard time imagining him getting convicted. Even if he got convicted in one or more of these, you know he is appealing all the way to that conservative SC, and even if it got decided before the 2024 election, which I don't think is very likely either, that SC will just side with Trump, zero confidence in that fecked up majority doing the right thing. He'll probably just pay some healthy fines and get probation and that's about it.
He’s legally exposed in all of them. If he’s convicted then he is going to jail. That doesn’t mean he is will be in an orange jump suit at Florence ADX. It will probably be the most lenient, country club incarceration available.
So, Mike Johnson did the same thing that McCarthy did, have dems bail him out on keeping the government open.
How long until a motion to vacate?
How long until a motion to vacate?
There won't be one, the McCarthy one was personal between him and Gaetz
I’m not sure how trump goes to jail realistically. Would cost a fortune and be a circus. House arrest perhaps.
He's not going to jail, the social unrest stemming from that isn't worth the hassle, at most it will be a suspended sentence.
All of which is moot anyway if he wins the next election. Biden's numbers will probably rise a bit as the election approaches if the economy doesnt tank but the public perception of his poor mental acuity and economic handling (however unfair it is) has been so baked in, it can be a real danger to GOTV operation, with Trump being removed from office for 4 years a lot of the clownery and constant instability faded from people's mind and unless they get galvanized this time with abortion issue, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are in real danger (while Georgia is probably a lost cause even with his legal issues there).