2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran discuss a horrific month of December and a depressing FOUR defeats in a row - the latest coming against Wolves and Newcastle.
They discuss how much blame is on Ruben Amorim and rank our squad against other Premier League teams.
Do we have any chance of avoiding defeat at Anfield?
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I think AZ, GA, and NC are going to go massively in favour of Trump. Nevada seems a legit toss up (of course, these are all alleged swing states).
Strangely confident about this one, despite the betting market...
Other than that, the entire game (and it's no coincidence or genius that each camp is camped out here) comes down to PA, MI, and WI.
Also, there is just no way Dems take florida in this cycle. I'd predict the GOP taking CA to be about as likely .
Not a chance NC and GA go "massively" for Trump, unless your definition of "massively" is anything more than 1.0%
Harris takes Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa.
Trump takes Arizona and Nevada.
Easy 308-230 win for Harris. Good night Donald.
Trump takes Arizona and Nevada.
Easy 308-230 win for Harris. Good night Donald.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/BeXm1
Cannot put the image in but I have GOP on 262 in a scenario where only the three northern swing states make a jot of difference. I think this is by far the most likely outcome.
Cannot put the image in but I have GOP on 262 in a scenario where only the three northern swing states make a jot of difference. I think this is by far the most likely outcome.
I would expect the Rs to have a slight edge in the Senate, but that could of course be reversed if Harris gets unusually high turnout. She recently went to TX to campaign for Allred, which suggests they had internals that had him within striking distance to Cruz. I'm also keenly watching Dan Osborne in NE. If he happens to win, he could wind up a kingmaker in the Senate.
it occurred to me earlier to go through all the polling since the entry of Trump into the US political arena. Slightly off topic. But in 2016 Clinton had a rough 5% or more advantage in the national polls. In 2020 Biden was somewhere between 7-10% ahead in the national polls. This time around and the polls tell me it's a toss up. I see that as Trump most likely winning unless they have finally corrected their polling mechanisms.
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I just went with what I expect the GOP to win (as per polling) and left the "rest" out. Leaving the two campaigns exactly where they are right now - in the above three states in the dying hours of the election. Making perfect sense.
That’s been a main point of conversation this whole cycle.
What's the tl;dr version?
why folks are so positive on AZ.
Also, Trump good for my own personal financial life, I did not vote for him (first time voting for me and family). Met few friends over the weekend, majority voted for Trump.
Also, Trump good for my own personal financial life, I did not vote for him (first time voting for me and family). Met few friends over the weekend, majority voted for Trump.
I've mentally got likely-R for the Senate, since with Manchin retiring and Tester likely losing in MT, I'm finding it hard to imagine D (or I) picking up 2 of TX, FL, NE, while still defending OH (I think PA, AZ, NV, WI senate are likely-D).
Also, having lived in Allred's congressional district in Dallas, I personally don't think he'll ultimately have what it takes to unseat Cruz, but that's just my vibes (we don't live there anymore).
I dont see Trump winning the sunbelt "massively", i think Harris wins those states, but if she doesn't, it's not going to be by much imo.
Yeah, there are definitely several who hopped on the money train and I agree 100% with your point of “used to be a Democrat” being a string in one’s bow to do so. Sanitizes the whole thing, “it’s not just the far right, EVEN (former dem…hi Tulsi) says this now.”
I’ll be interested in seeing if/when MAGA has its downfall how many people try to crawl back to”normalcy” or into whatever the new Overton window is. And how they’ll be received.
Slightly related to that last point, Larry Hogan trying to (apparently somewhat reluctantly) become a federal/national player, even though he publicly has tried to distance himself from Trump, has really shit on his legacy in the state. He was popular in MD as governor but is being framed very differently now.
If they hold the rest, they only need to pick up one, 50 gives dems the senate if they win the White House.
Uphill battle for sure though.
Abortion remains undefeated on the ballot, guess what, it's on in FL. We'll know very soon if I'm right. FL reports pretty quickly.
Abortion may be undefeated, but people who oppose it continue to merrily get elected to house and senate seats, so I wouldn't bank on a Harris landslide because of one issue.
Assuming the suggestion here is that @langster doesn't do that, you probably couldn’t have picked a worse person to aim that particular jibe at.
Don't see it happening, abortion ballot will pass, but that's not the same as dems winning the state, Florida has shifted to the right in recent years.
If you are right though, it's landslide territory, early night.
CNN was always the one I went to, for twenty or more years now, and I did, as others maybe do, switch between that and other broadcasters depending on developments. Really depends on what way the election is going for me as to what broadcaster I'm looking at. But usually is CNN. Only so many times I can watch that fecker with the map on CNN though. Over the past two decades it has been burned into my retinas as absolutely nothing is happening and they're telling me of county areas with significant populations (with not a single vote in).
What is "massively" ? How many percentage points?
Question, what time will we start getting PA/MI/WI vote results in? Timezone stuff. Just curious. This stuff goes out of my memory every four years.
My bad - I had forgotten that it was 51-49. If Dems can pick up one while holding the rest, I'd think that would bode very well for a Harris presidency.
I think he's probably ahead - yes, based entirely on two things: one, the polls as they are, and two, which CR has alluded to but I don't know the nuance to his answer yet, what the polls may not be showing when considered historically - by anywhere between 3-5 percent across all those states. Happy to be wrong. Just a feeling.
They need to pick up two to offset losses by Tester and Manchin's seats don't they ?
According to Cook's Senate forcast, the Dems would have to run the table by holding serve with Slotkin, Brown, Casey, and Baldwin. Then make up for the two losses by winning NE and TX ?
Looks like Junior is already hitting the Peruvian marching powder to cope with tomorrow night.
This the most interesting one I've seen so far. It would all come down to Nevada which is useless in my own map. A 6 point turnaround winning it for the GOP or maintaining it for the dems.
Full article on this here...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-know-who-won-2024-election/
NC and GA should be the first.
WI and PA will be late as they cant start on mail in ballots before the polls close.
MI can count mail in and absentee early, so they may be around midnight.
I hope you are right, but I think you are wrong.
There are 600 pages of previous discussion on this thread. Many posts relate to how the landscape has changed and that the national lead of 4% is no longer needed by a Dem to win the swing states required. Too many people looking at what happend last time and expecting history to repeat. Also, on how poll weighting has been implemented to account for Trump's "hidden vote" which is likely no longer hidden, as well as pollsters herding in their polls, to not be the outlier and be made to look very wrong... https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state
We will see though.
As much as I’m sure we all wish you were correct. Florida isn’t remotely in play for Dems
Not on mine in news I can only get Sky News, CNBC and fecking GB News
It is a big reason Selzer pointed to the swing in Iowa, where they implemented the 6 week abortion ban over the summer.
Wishful thinking, but Trump's leads in Texas are not too dissimilar to the ones he had in other Iowa polls. Very similar laws were passed in Texas two years ago and there have been many horrific stories come out of Texas since then. This will be the first general since.
I’m in Ireland but I assumed we had same. CNN is 506, we even have GB news over here too, which I find bizarre
I hope you're right. I don't discount that there will be some degree of extra turnout for abortion, but it would need to be substantial to win a state like Iowa. If that happens, then Harris would coast to an easy EC win.
Won’t be so good when they destroy the economy as clearly stated in their closing words… fmd, people are just not even listening. No wonder that country is so fecked.
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