2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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WI_Red said:
It's based on MAGA having no clue how pissed off (non MAGA) women are. Just looking at the women in my life and how even the traditionally conservative or non-political ones are vocally and passionately pro-Harris. Of course that is anecdotal, but it is such a jarring change that it stands out. I have no doubt this is being replicated around the country (just look at the Iowa poll and analysis). Add to that how dramatically the Trump campaign has imploded the last few weeks and I think this is a comfortable Harris win.
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I absolutely agree, I am very confident in a Harris win now, I even put £100 on it yesterday! I hope that's not famous last words though!
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Zero unemployment isn't ideal. Somewhere around 3% is more ideal theoretically than zero. And you'd have to define what you mean by allow economy to boom. Do you mean decreasing income/wealth inequality and raising the actual spending power of the average person? or just super charging the Dow Jones for the top 2-5%?
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The economic specifics isn't really the point here. The point was that the right wing media would paint her an an abject failure even if she has performed as well as anyone could ever imagine.
 
Jev said:
Feels like there’s a vibe shift towards Harris and also a growing belief in this thread. What are you basing it on? Because I have the same feeling but I’d struggle to justify it rationally giving that polling (except for the Selzer one) at best shows the Trump momentum has stopped, more than an actual Harris momentum.
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Feels like it’s based on Trump’s low energy which is rumoured triggered by GOP internal polling along with the Iowa poll giving hope.

I can’t help but think it could be GOP being wary of complacency and briefing that they’re not doing well in order to shock their followers out of complacency.
 


So after all the endless editorials, podcasts and analysis lamenting about racedep, we ended up at..... exactly 2020 margin, at worst.
 
langster said:
Hugely disrespectful to lots of people who vote purely out of personal situation. That's who.

We can all disagree about policy and important issues like abortion or healthcare etc... We can all (and many of us do, me included) mock them for being uneducated or racist and hateful, but let's not do a Hillary and put them all in the same basket or think they are all lost or the enemy. Many are just fecking struggling day to day. Yes, a lot is of their own making, but for many, it isn't. It's bad luck or circumstance. A society is judged on how it helps the weakest, poorest and most needy. (Often misquoted, but I like that one the best)

A significant percentage of Trump voters are voting out of desperation, ignorance, brainwashing or because they are told to by their partners or families or church etc. But similarly, if their lives were improved significantly to the extent you said then they would switch their vote, or I would at least hope they would.
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Mate, you are putting words into my mouth here. Who am i mocking? Who am putting into any basket of deplorables?

Let's get back to the original point.

I said that even if Harris was to perform brilliantly on all metrics, she would still be dealing with a massively divided electorate in 2028, thanks largely to right wing medias narative.

You seem to disagree...

langster said:
If Kamala did everything you said, yes of course you would get a few uneducated or braindead mugs who think they are smarter than everyone else or those who refuse to ever admit they are wrong and cut their noses off to spite their own faces that would still be staunchly against her. Then the racists and sexist misogynists and then the religious lot who vote purely on abortion and equal rights issues.... But the vast majority, if Kamala improved their lives to that extent they would switch. 100%

The only question I have, is what is the percentage?
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To which i asked, you.....

You say "the vast majority" would vote for her. How do you define "vast majority"? 70/30 ? 80/20 ?

Say you are right, what % of the vote would Kamala get in 2028 for a second term, if she was to score a 10/10 in every metric?

So, give me a number?


Additionally, I do take offence here because you said...

langster said:
let's not do a Hillary and put them all in the same basket
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Which I never said, or anything of the like. I criticised right wing media, not any voter.

Yet, you have called people....
langster said:
uneducated or braindead mugs

racists and sexist misogynists
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So maybe don't throw stones at me and accuse me of putting people in baskets, while doing the exact same in the same post!
 
Bash the Electoral College all we want but playing with those electoral maps is pretty fun.
 
gaffs said:
Mate, you are putting words into my mouth here. Who am i mocking? Who am putting into any basket of deplorables?

Let's get back to the original point.

I said that even if Harris was to perform brilliantly on all metrics, she would still be dealing with a massively divided electorate in 2028, thanks largely to right wing medias narative.

You seem to disagree...



To which i asked, you.....

You say "the vast majority" would vote for her. How do you define "vast majority"? 70/30 ? 80/20 ?

Say you are right, what % of the vote would Kamala get in 2028 for a second term, if she was to score a 10/10 in every metric?

So, give me a number?


Additionally, I do take offence here because you said...



Which I never said, or anything of the like. I criticised right wing media, not any voter.

Yet, you have called people....


So maybe don't throw stones at me and accuse me of putting people in baskets, while doing the exact same in the same post!
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I'm not getting in to this. I've got crayons to eat and polls to flip flop my opinion around.
 
Highlight from that Last Week Tonight election special:

IlWsbbf.jpeg
 
Tom Van Persie said:
To be honest I just left it red as I can't wrap my head around the 12 point swing she has to the Dems. I'm certainly not betting against her given her track record. I think the trends Selzer is seeing in Iowa translate to the rust belt.
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I forget the exact details, but she was saying on one TV interview yesterday that even the 2018 Iowa Governor race, which was her only final prediction to be off, was due to a massive push from the Republican candidate, as well as Democrat errors, in the days post her poll.

I too find the swing hard to believe, especially when the sample is only 808 people, but in Ann we trust (apparently). If she is correct, who knows which other states could flip?
 
Cal? said:
gZwnE


Strangely confident about this one, despite the betting market...
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I think you should throw in Texas too, just for the hell of it. If Florida flips, everyrything might as well flip. Match Reagan? 525 EC votes?
 
Charlie Foley said:
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The continuous problem is that all these grifters keep jumping on the MAGA train bc that's where the money is. Hell even places like Amazon and AliExpress know that's where the money is for political gear bc guess what some of their top sellers are. Hint: it's not Dem stuff.

Take the money away and most don't have a reason to sell their soul anymore. I've said it before on here that any of us could probably do the same and make some decent cash- especially if you have a history of having dem or left leaning beliefs to show how "reformed" you are. The craziest thing about it to me is how what Dems said in the past matters if it conflicts with something today - but in the MAGA sphere changing your opinion or alignment is just proof of finding the proverbial light.

Even dog killer Governor Noem clearly looked like she wanted to get off the stage when she forceably danced along with Trump s 45 minute high school prom performance. There are only a few who I think truly believe in this stuff and that's the likes of a Bannon or Steve Miller and they re just making sure the grifters continue to fall in line under threat of excommunication.
 
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This is my map, i suppose.

Polling errors happens, my feeling is it will be for dems this time around, and if that's the case, reckon it may well happen across the board, wouldn't take much to overcome Trump's small leads in some of the sunbelt states.
 
Might need to start planning my way back to Australia, but not until after I'm in DC on January 6 next year for a conference :wenger:
 
Redplane said:
The continuous problem is that all these grifters keep jumping on the MAGA train bc that's where the money is. Hell even places like Amazon and AliExpress know that's where the money is for political gear bc guess what some of their top sellers are. Hint: it's not Dem stuff.

Take the money away and most don't have a reason to sell their soul anymore. I've said it before on here that any of us could probably do the same and make some decent cash- especially if you have a history of having dem or left leaning beliefs to show how "reformed" you are. The craziest thing about it to me is how what Dems said in the past matters if it conflicts with something today - but in the MAGA sphere changing your opinion or alignment is just proof of finding the proverbial light.

Even dog killer Governor Noem clearly looked like she wanted to get off the stage when she forceably danced along with Trump s 45 minute high school prom performance. There are only a few who I think truly believe in this stuff and that's the likes of a Bannon or Steve Miller and they re just making sure the grifters continue to fall in line under threat of excommunication.
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It also happens to be where the policy is. For all his corrupt and demagogic antics, Trump still delivers a vast majority of the policies Rs want, which compels most of them to continue voting for him - including tax cuts. He even delivered the holy grail of the evangelical movement by getting rid of national abortion.
 
JezChan said:
Might need to start planning my way back to Australia, but not until after I'm in DC on January 6 next year for a conference :wenger:
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I feel like the people responsible for arranging the conference haven't exactly thought things through in their planning.
 
Raoul said:
It also happens to be where the policy is. For all his corrupt and demagogic antics, Trump still delivers a vast majority of the policies Rs want, which compels most of them to continue voting for him. He even delivered the holy grail of the evangelical movement by getting rid of national abortion.
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I get your point - but then we also need to talk about how that "policy" is brought about. Imagine what would happen to the Dem support if they would go full scorched earth like the Rs have done since basically Reagan but obviously greatly ramped up under Cheney/W with the Trump the ultimate grifter himself for the whims of the dark money in those circles. Dems will never be able to keep the moral high ground bc a lot of their electorate would instantly be disenfranchised and they can't cope with the Republican backlash when they set but one foot out of line.
 
Raoul said:
It also happens to be where the policy is. For all his corrupt and demagogic antics, Trump still delivers a vast majority of the policies Rs want, which compels most of them to continue voting for him. He even delivered the holy grail of the evangelical movement by getting rid of national abortion.
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Anecdotal, I know, but a middle-aged evangelical woman that my wife knows (who lives in a college town in Indiana) made a strongly-worded Facebook post about voting conservative pretty much every election up to and including 2020, but is voting Democrat this election. That post got about 60 likes/replies that were from people of a similar background - evangelicals who were previously conservative-voting, but finally could not bear to align themselves with a party that has embraced Donald Trump and all the associated proliferation of racism, misogyny, hate, bullying, etc. etc.

Gives a little insight into perhaps how the Selzer poll came out the way it did. As much as I'd love to see a blue wave against Trump, and I think there will be a sizeable swing, I'm still not holding my breath that it'll be enough to decisively tip the balance of the EC.
 
WI_Red said:
It's based on MAGA having no clue how pissed off (non MAGA) women are. Just looking at the women in my life and how even the traditionally conservative or non-political ones are vocally and passionately pro-Harris. Of course that is anecdotal, but it is such a jarring change that it stands out. I have no doubt this is being replicated around the country (just look at the Iowa poll and analysis). Add to that how dramatically the Trump campaign has imploded the last few weeks and I think this is a comfortable Harris win.
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Wait, I thought the Dobbs decision only was going to be impactful for the 2022 midterms or something along those lines?
 
Redplane said:
I get your point - but then we also need to talk about how that "policy" is brought about. Imagine what would happen to the Dem support if they would go full scorched earth like the Rs have done since basically Reagan but obviously greatly ramped up under Cheney/W with the Trump the ultimate grifter himself for the whims of the dark money in those circles. Dems will never be able to keep the moral high ground bc a lot of their electorate would instantly be disenfranchised and they can't cope with the Republican backlash when they set but one foot out of line.
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Agreed. Dems could never do what Trump is doing because for better or worse, they still adhere to standard norms, whereas Trump flouts and breaks them at will. This will be a problem for ordinary Republicans seeking to rebuild their party post-Trump.
 
Laurencio said:
I feel like the people responsible for arranging the conference haven't exactly thought things through in their planning.
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It happens in DC every year in the first or second week of January. I'm glad that this time, Biden's the one in office in case any shenanigans happen.
 
JezChan said:
Anecdotal, I know, but a middle-aged evangelical woman that my wife knows (who lives in a college town in Indiana) made a strongly-worded Facebook post about voting conservative pretty much every election up to and including 2020, but is voting Democrat this election. That post got about 60 likes/replies that were from people of a similar background - evangelicals who were previously conservative-voting, but finally could not bear to align themselves with a party that has embraced Donald Trump and all the associated proliferation of racism, misogyny, hate, bullying, etc. etc.

Gives a little insight into perhaps how the Selzer poll came out the way it did. As much as I'd love to see a blue wave against Trump, and I think there will be a sizeable swing, I'm still not holding my breath that it'll be enough to decisively tip the balance of the EC.
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That's a fair point. I'm fascinated at how Iowa will turnout tomorrow night. My suspicion is Trump may still win it, but it will be closer than most previously thought, which may bode well for Harris in other states.
 
Raoul said:
That's a fair point. I'm fascinated at how Iowa will turnout tomorrow night. My suspicion is Trump may still win it, but it will be closer than most previously thought, which may bode well for Harris in other states.
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Agreed - just like the tweet someone posted earlier, that I hope the Selzer poll will be at least an indication of swing directionality, and that it'll be enough to tip states like WI, MI, PA over the edge for Dems. Whether we'll see that replicated in NC, GA, AZ, NV is something I'm less sure of.

Regardless of what happens at the top of the ticket, I've got no hope of a Democratic Senate, though the Selzer poll and anecdotal evidence gives me some marginal hope for a Democratic House.
 
The Boy said:
I desperately want to but it is very hard to stream CNN live in the UK, can't be done on Apple TV, can't do it through Sky either anymore
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CNN still on sky
 
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