2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
This nails modern day politics.
This says more about polling than the state of the race, doesn’t it? How it Harris supposed to have gained 6 percentage points in Michigan in two weeks?
For sure! Thirteen more fecking days to go...
Plus however long it takes to figure out who won. I don’t expect we will know on the fifth.
Don't forget the legal challenges, the minor insurrection attempts and threats of civil war. It will be an interesting few months.
Yeah it's going to get messy. Trump is expected to declare victory early on election night. It's clear what his plans are.
Oh no a think tank person who is not even based in Flint didn't get to talk longer to someone who is literally hopping from state to state multiple times a day and has to somehow keep up talking to thousands of people. Poor guy
Yes. While it looks nice, no way that this true. And that’s why some of us here have been saying for a while now: move on of polling and focus on early voting.
Regarding young voters:
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If you nitpick on a handful of polls yes, they are not worth the analysis. Average are another matter. Not to be taken as gospel, but the margin of error had never been very big in presidentials. And early voting....is another indicator, but can't be compared with Covid times
I’m not against polls, but when we are this close to the election and polls show this kind of swing, I don’t know what to learn from this.
Is it a toss up? Yes, and we already know that. Tomorrow there will be anxiety after a poll shows Trump leading by 2 in Michigan… rinse, repeat.
Supposedly a "bombshell" story about Trump is going to be released. Lots of rumours on X which seemed to have originated from Mark Halperin.
Even if true how many bombshell like revelations that should have been the undoing of just about anyone have we not had only for it to be buried by even more shit this guy gets or was involved in. For once it would be nice to see something stick.
I’d take it with a pinch of salt. Halperin has been attempting to revive his career for a few years now after getting hit with Me Too allegations in the mid 2010s.
wegothim.gif
So, The NY Times didn’t even mention the comments of Trump praising Hitler on their front page?!!
Oh no a think tank person who is not even based in Flint didn't get to talk longer to someone who is literally hopping from state to state multiple times a day and has to somehow keep up talking to thousands of people. Poor guy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Zogby#Career
interacting with harris voters is the easiest way to despise her.
Here's a good cross section of jewish voices from across the political spectrum that Kamala could use to inform Dem foreign policy if she wants to get it right.
If this is the bombshell then it won’t do anything given that he’s already escaped the Access Hollywood tape and a number of other sexually related charges, and is on the cusp of getting elected by the same public that already know all of this about him.
To be fair to him, this is what he actually says about Harris (after she was in Michigan)Oh no a think tank person who is not even based in Flint didn't get to talk longer to someone who is literally hopping from state to state multiple times a day and has to somehow keep up talking to thousands of people. Poor guy
I hope it ends him.
Former employee at the Lincoln Project and also worked on Nikki Fried's campaign for governor in 2022.
I mean, its not going to lose him any voters, even if there is a video of him doing sexually assaulting this girl.
In every other damn country this would be the end of his candidacy, the end of his campaign and permanently ruin him and rule him out of every single fecking important role in the future of the country.
But 'Murican politics is a whole new breed.
"Trump gropes minor on video
Arizona Trump (+3)"
But 'Murican politics is a whole new breed.
"Trump gropes minor on video
Arizona Trump (+3)"
This reminds me of that meme during peak Tories like 3 years ago.
"Boris Johnson breaks 13 rules and his Health sec shags his secretary on his desk
Tories +4"
"Boris Johnson breaks 13 rules and his Health sec shags his secretary on his desk
Tories +4"
MAGAs would probably claim the rumoured video is ai generated.
This isn't the bombshell doing the rounds on the internet. He's apparently on film groping a young girl at a recent fundraiser. But back to this story, the poor girl who has come out and said this is being destroyed, she's already had her name, address and mobile number put out on posts that were quickly removed from X and apparently Facebook too. She's being absolutely rinsed by MAGA supporters calling her a whore etc and saying how it's funny she's only just saying it now after 31 years and with it being less than two weeks before the election.
It'll likely be a nothing burger.
Tucker with the impeccable timing
And that is why I say that you can't take just a bunch of polls only as you well point out, this doesn't make any sense. American politics amasses and insane quantity of data from the polls and this skewed polls that you mentioned will be engulfed by the noise of the averages
I am ignoring all the polls because everyday there lots and you raise your hopes for the ones that are positives for you and you fall in despair for the ones that are negative. As you said unnecessary anxiety. I, personally will go the last 2 days to the averages, check and panic or be hopeful. Just for 2 days
For now is 60/40 for trump, but that is my opinion based on the noise that is floating around
Beat me to it
If said video doesn't get published, yes.
One red flag is the trump world mouth piece like Halperin/Tom Bevan from RCP were offered it, seems like a squeeze for a payout, but maybe other publications have been approached, since the MAGA influencers already went public screaming about deepfakes since yesterday. They probably expected it to leak (if real)
It’s a good thing Harris is running against Trump because she is having yet another mare at the town hall. Avoiding answering people’s questions while robotically reciting canned talking points. Unsurprisingly, all the DNC stooges on Twitter are triumphantly proclaiming she “crushed it”.