2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

flameinthesun said:
Again, for me anyone who is part of a minority group and decides to abstain or vote for the republican ticket is actively doing themselves harm.
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Give the people a cause to vote for, not a cause to vote against, this is so lame and insulting to arabs and muslims you want automatic votes. Maybe understand them why they wanting to abstain, maybe the human lives of Palestinian children weigh more than any domestic "policy" for them.
 
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Morty_ said:
Well, couple of big dem-leaning counties aren't turning out as much as they should, Gwinnett County was one of those, and it lags behind state average by quite a bit, some of the more Trump-leaning countries has better turnout so far.

Women turnout, what was that like in 2020, i try to find.
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I think the it's the mail return rate that's lagging behind and that might just be because of when they went out/processing etc. 413k voted in Gwinnett in 2020, as of this moment 190k have voted in person or requested a ballot, there isn't a turnout problem as of this moment, and it looks like turnout as a whole will track very close to or even surpass 2020 if you look at the trendline.
 
Giggsyking said:
Give the people a cause to vote for, not a cause to vote against, this is so lame and insulting to arabs and muslims you want automatic votes. Maybe understand them why they wanting to abstain, maybe the human lives of Palestinian children weigh more than any domestic "policy" for them.
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Trump will let Israel wipe Palestine off the face of the Earth, at least Harris would hit the breaks before we reach that point.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
I think the it's the mail return rate that's lagging behind and that might just be because of when they went out/processing etc. 413k voted in Gwinnett in 2020, as of this moment 190k have voted in person or requested a ballot, there isn't a turnout problem as of this moment, and it looks like turnout as a whole will track very close to or even surpass 2020 if you look at the trendline.
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I hope they catch up soon, but another thing, ever since voting started i'm not really much into polling anymore, but i will mention that Georgia is a state that polling has been pretty accurate last few cycles, its not like, say, Wisconsin, where a poll is essentially meaningless.
 
Blood Mage said:
Trump will let Israel wipe Palestine off the face of the Earth, at least Harris would hit the breaks before we reach that point.
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It’s literally happening as we speak and Harris just said the real tragedy happened on October 7th.
 
Its rare of me to do both-siderism, but i hardly expect any change in Israel-policy regardless who wins.

Now, maybe Harris has a different opinion on Israel-Gaza than Biden does, but i wouldn't count on it, most mainstream dems aren't different from Biden on this subject either.

So then, i move on to the next big foreign conflict, Ukraine-Russia, and i'm sure dems will provide more there than Trump will, this is what lesser evil-choice looks like in practise, i'll take one thing dems agree with me on, rather than none.

While i've said earlier that its common sense to vote dem for those who don't want rights taken away, if many muslim-americans are going to sit this one out, i'm not going to vote-shame them for it.
 
Morty_ said:
Its rare of me to do both-siderism, but i hardly expect any change in Israel-policy regardless who wins.

Now, maybe Harris has a different opinion on Israel-Gaza than Biden does, but i wouldn't count on it, most mainstream dems aren't different from Biden on this subject either.

So then, i move on to the next big foreign conflict, Ukraine-Russia, and i'm sure dems will provide more there than Trump will, this is what lesser evil-choice looks like in practise, i'll take one thing dems agree with me on, rather than none.

While i've said earlier that its common sense to vote dem for those who don't want rights taken away, if many muslim-americans are going to sit this one out, i'm not going to vote-shame them for it.
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Yes, and none of this should come as a surprise to anyone. The US and Israel are close allies and as such, any US president is going to support Israel. There may be some degree of variance in terms of the discussions the POUTS and the Israeli PM have in private about what to do, but in public terms there's not going to be a US president who doesn't prioritize the US/Israeli relationship.
 
Raoul said:
It’s possible, although Russia has been so badly damaged by all of this that Putin may well run out of time (as in die of old age or otherwise) before he can launch WW3 against NATO.
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Dangerous as Putin is, I worry more about the vacuum he will leave behind than what he himself is capable of.
 
Morty_ said:
I hope they catch up soon, but another thing, ever since voting started i'm not really much into polling anymore, but i will mention that Georgia is a state that polling has been pretty accurate last few cycles, its not like, say, Wisconsin, where a poll is essentially meaningless.
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Final RCP average in 2020 in GA was Trump +1, Biden won by 0.3
Current average 1.8, of the last 7 polls there 4 of them are right wing pollster showing Trump +1-3 and an outlier from Quinnipiac showing Trump +6. It's actually remarkably similar, of the last 10 polls in 2020 7 showed a Trump lead, 1 tie and 2 Biden lead, with Trump hitting 50 more often than not. It will go down to the wire, but I'm definitely feeling more hopeful about GA now than I've been all year, after the stunts the MAGA shitheads pulled in their Election Board (which I suspect had an impact on the mail return rate in Democratic strongholds).

Also, how pathetic are they?

 
It looks like Harris said she worked in a McDonald's in 1983, but someone else who may have worked there doesn't remember her working there.

I can understand why that makes her unelectable.
 
Frankly, when it comes to polling, the ship has sailed.

Polls tell you how people interviewed plan to vote IF they vote. They can’t predict who vote, intensity, etc. I know that it’s nice to see one leading at Silver/NYT/538 two weeks before the election, but it’s nicer to see people vote. The question now: do blue counties in Michigan (and other states) vote at a good rate?! The rest is just noise.
 
Blood Mage said:
Trump will let Israel wipe Palestine off the face of the Earth, at least Harris would hit the breaks before we reach that point.
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You could get into specifics of the Israel/Palestine conflict, but what Giggsyking says is a broader issue.

There was a general belief that Trump's racism ought to draw minority voters toward the Democratic Party and make it their natural home. But this has not actually happened, in fact Trump gained some minority vote in 2020 relative to 2016, even though he lost overall.

This ought to be accepted, acknowledged, and then hopefully understood. But some people stubbornly insist that no, the voters must be wrong.
 
Iker Quesadillas said:
You could get into specifics of the Israel/Palestine conflict, but what Giggsyking says is a broader issue.

There was a general belief that Trump's racism ought to draw minority voters toward the Democratic Party and make it their natural home. But this has not actually happened, in fact Trump gained some minority vote in 2020 relative to 2016, even though he lost overall.

This ought to be accepted, acknowledged, and then hopefully understood. But some people stubbornly insist that no, the voters must be wrong.
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It comes down to two primary factors, religion and economics, both of which they have been running a lot of ads on recently. For economics, they have ads with people talking about things like the increase in prices of groceries then Kamala saying "That's Bidenomics." For religion/social conservatism, they have Kamala spliced in saying she would give prisoners gender transition surgery and then the ad ends with "Kamala is for they/them, Trump is for you." This is where they've gained traction with two different subsets of minority communities.
 
Christ almighty, I am getting upwards of five texts per hour now from the Trump campaign. Absolutely incessant.
 
Former President Donald Trump is accusing 60 Minutes of deceitful editing of our Oct. 7 interview with Vice President Kamala Harris. That is false.

60 Minutes gave an excerpt of our interview to Face the Nation that used a longer section of her answer than that on 60 Minutes. Same question. Same answer. But a different portion of the response. When we edit any interview, whether a politician, an athlete, or movie star, we strive to be clear, accurate and on point. The portion of her answer on 60 Minutes was more succinct, which allows time for other subjects in a wide ranging 21-minute-long segment.

Remember, Mr. Trump pulled out of his interview with 60 Minutes and the vice president participated.

Our long-standing invitation to former President Trump remains open. If he would like to discuss the issues facing the nation and the Harris interview, we would be happy to have him on 60 Minutes.
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Completely anecdotal but I happened to drive across a few rural areas of NJ and PA and just the sheer number of Trump 2024 signs in front of homes surprised me.
I have a feeling that we might be looking at a repeat of 2016 this year.
 
iKnowNothing said:
Completely anecdotal but I happened to drive across a few rural areas of NJ and PA and just the sheer number of Trump 2024 signs in front of homes surprised me.
I have a feeling that we might be looking at a repeat of 2016 this year.
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That is odd, everything i hear is very few Trump signs, actually.

No, this isn't a repeat of 2016, because it doesn't make sense for it to be.
 
Arizona:

According to exit polls, the electorate was 26% Democrats, 35% GOP and 39% independents.

Biden won by 0.4% because he won 9% of Republicans and 53% of Independents. He won 96% of Democrats.

This year, 29% of the registered voters are Democrats, 3% higher than the said exit poll suggests. GOP: 35.7%, very similar to what we had in the exit poll.

Unless there is a big crossover to Trump or the GOP back Trump by more than in 2020, Harris can win even if she slightly underperforms Biden among independents, but the margin for error is very small.

And of course turnout of each party matters. So far, very similar:

https://www.upliftcampaigns.com/2024azearly
 
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ManUtd1999 said:
Arizona:

According to exit polls, the electorate was 26% Democrats, 35% GOP and 39% independents.

Biden won by 0.4% because he won 9% of Republicans and 53% of Independents. He won 96% of Democrats.

This year, 29% of the registered voters are Democrats, 3% higher than the said exit poll suggests. GOP: 35.7%, very similar to what we had in the exit poll.

Unless there is a big crossover to Trump or the GOP back Trump by more than in 2020, Harris can win even if she slightly underperforms Biden among independents, but the margin for error is very small.

https://www.upliftcampaigns.com/2024azearly
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Except that Biden had the advantage of being a white male. AZ is trending slighly bluer than last cycle because more latinos are in Maricopa and generally they tend to tilt slightly towards Dems. That doesn't mean Harris is going to win the state, in fact culturally, its the last of all the swing states I would expect her to carry.
 
Raoul said:
Except that Biden had the advantage of being a white male. AZ is trending slighly bluer than last cycle because more latinos are in Maricopa and generally they tend to tilt slightly towards Dems. That doesn't mean Harris is going to win the state, in fact culturally, it’s the last of all the swing states I would expect her to carry.
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Yes, I wouldn’t count on AZ this year, but Harris can win it.

Moving forward, the Democrats may become the favorites in AZ but NV becomes a full purple state (if it’s not already).
 
Raoul said:
There’s no excuse for Harris to not outperform in GA. They have two Dem Senators and the work Stacey Abrams has done there can’t do anything other than help Harris.
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Given Georgia was where Trump most blatantly and obviously tried to overturn the will of the voters, I am absolutely dumbfounded that it isn’t a Harris landslide.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
For religion/social conservatism, they have Kamala spliced in saying she would give prisoners gender transition surgery and then the ad ends with "Kamala is for they/them, Trump is for you." This is where they've gained traction with two different subsets of minority communities.
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Trump gained traction with some minority voters in 2020. This ad did not exist back then afaik. He was also gaining on Biden since about a year ago.
 
Raoul said:
There’s no excuse for Harris to not outperform in GA. They have two Dem Senators and the work Stacey Abrams has done there can’t do anything other than help Harris.
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I've basically written off GA, perhaps to brace myself, but it would be amazing to keep it blue. That would offset a loss in MI for instance.
 
The huge joker for me is North Carolina. Harris and Trump are basically neck and neck in the polls, but I'm not sure if they takes into account that Republican turn-out may be affected by the massive disaster that is Mark Robinson. Harris taking North Carolina would be huge in terms of opening up different paths to victory.
 
Mike Smalling said:
The huge joker for me is North Carolina. Harris and Trump are basically neck and neck in the polls, but I'm not sure if they takes into account that Republican turn-out may be affected by the massive disaster that is Mark Robinson. Harris taking North Carolina would be huge in terms of opening up different paths to victory.
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I believe there has not been a top pollster since Quinnipiac had Harris up by 2 or 3 as well, right? Regardless, for my own sanity I've written off NC too :lol: But it is obviously in play!
 
SirAF said:
I believe there has not been a top pollster since Quinnipiac had Harris up by 2 or 3 as well, right? Regardless, for my own sanity I've written off NC too :lol: But it is obviously in play!
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Yeah feck that my not overthinking it this year. I was convinced Biden was going to flip it in 2020 and got burned. Hopefully Robinson will cost Trump a point but eh we'll see.

Two Huge issues in Arizona right now. Immigration and abortion rights. If it wasn't for abortion I would be almost certain AZ goes back to Trump. The abortion issue is giving me hope.
 
SirAF said:
I believe there has not been a top pollster since Quinnipiac had Harris up by 2 or 3 as well, right? Regardless, for my own sanity I've written off NC too :lol: But it is obviously in play!
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I'm not really that into, which polls are good and bad, but seems like they are pretty much all within 1 percentage point and definitely within the margin of error. If you look at 538, they have another poll with a similar rating to Quinnipiac at +1% for Harris, which came out a bit later.

But like someone said, no-one can really gain anything super meaningful from polls that tight. Thank god it's only two week until election day.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I'm not really that into, which polls are good and bad, but seems like they are pretty much all within 1 percentage point and definitely within the margin of error. If you look at 538, they have another poll with a similar rating to Quinnipiac at +1% for Harris, which came out a bit later.

But like someone said, no-one can really gain anything super meaningful from polls that tight. Thank god it's only two week until election day.
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Hear, hear!
 
On a more cheerful note, the pictures that came out of Trump's PR stunt at McDonald's were quite good. Love this one:

donald-trump-working-at-mcdonalds-for-15-minutes-v0-cjqtu3usryvd1.jpg
 
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