Let’s put a wager on who comes closest to their 2020 numbers if the general is Biden v Trump. Make it a donation to our favorite charity.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Let me wade in, if the election is between Biden and Trump again. Its a big loss for US. Because, it wont be a ballot against policies anymore. It will be a vote for who is the less worse personality - the kinda of race you expect in Banana republics. Heart of Heart nobody wants the farcical repeat. Majority of republican base love Trumps policies more than the person he is but will end up voting for him as the others are useless when it comes to policies. Majority of the democrats hate Biden's policies but end up voting for him as they hate Trump's personality much more. Sad day for US
I know very clearly that Trump is no ahead on the odds, so I will not bet against odds. And there are trials around the corners. But I am quite certain that he has a better shot, if he doesn't get convicted, than almost completely writing him off like many people does
Biden might be (or not) a big loss, but Trump is a national disaster with unpredictable negative impact bordering catastrophic. Can well jeopardize US integrity and its democracy
No one is writing him off, it’s mainly just looking at his past election results. Those, coupled with his decreasing base of voters, don’t bode well for him in 2024 v. Biden.
Ok, Vivek - I'll engage you.
You write that "He doesn't think climate crisis is a legitimate existential threat" and "having lofty climate ideals will lead to handing over the economic momentum to countries like China who have zero regards for climate and live in the same world and unless all the actors act in good faith".
Finger pointing at China is neither a strategy nor a plan. It's true China pollutes more than the US on an absolute basis (4,250 MT CO2 emissions vs 10,000)
https://www.iea.org/countries/china
https://www.iea.org/countries/united-states
On a relative basis we pollute WAY MORE (while manufacturing way less). China while still a developing country, has taken steps to control their green energy future. For example, an estimated 75-80% of the world’s solar panels, 77% of the world’s batteries and 60% of the world’s electric vehicles are currently manufactured in China. Within the solar manufacturing space in particular, the U.S. has to date failed to develop any meaningful domestic manufacturing capacity (First Solar aside) and is highly reliant on imports.
Why does this matter? The impact of heat extremes on the economy, it's pretty straight forward to classify and quantify.
- Labor Productivity: under the most baseline projections, the United States could lose on average approximately $100 billion annually from heat-induced lost labor productivity. To put in simple English heat stress reduces labor productivity, as workers slow down work and take extra breaks to prevent overheating. It also causes machinery to overheat and fail, including vehicles, computers, and cooled production processes, for example. Transport infrastructure (for example runways) can become unusable etc.
- Impact on agricultural yields: Many key crops are vulnerable to extreme heat: corn, soy, and wheat, which collectively covered approximately 62 percent of harvested area in the United States in 2010, could face significant losses during growing seasons without adaptation
- Impact on health outcomes: Extreme heat is already a leading cause of mortality in the United States, but without adaptation, deaths could increase more than sixfold. Exposure to extreme heat at work can increase not only heat-related illness, but also accidental injury.
- Asset Damage: Dry conditions, driven in part by heat, can contribute to increases in the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and wildfire severity (example see western 11 states wildfires, Hawaii, Canadian wildfires - all rare events increasing in frequency at an alarming rate).
- Add here other factors like impact to tourism (Florida, California are heavily susceptible to this), reduced outdoor activities (Texas), increase in prices for essentials such as food and commodities and you get the picture.
I said "almost" like he has little chance to win. I think he has a decent chance and from now and 2024 anything can happen
It’s bullshit blathery vapid populism. Anyone with any political sense can easily determine Viv’s full of shit.
Then let’s put a friendly wager on it. A charity benefits.
Precisely. He's an amateur at this level. Populism works if you're white, not brown. Vivek appealing to the West Virginia coal miners and country boys in 'Bama, Georgia and Texas is hilariously cute.
What are the odds that one of them doesn't make it, anyone up for a side bet?
We are going bankrupt and need to do something about the spiraling debt, but can't touch the sacred cows either. It's a hot potato issue
Viv has absolutely no reason to be running for president. He already said that Trump is the best president of the 21st century. So why is he running against the man he so admires?
50 quid but only if Trump is not condemned or in provisional prison before the elections
Yep, good caveats. Straight up campaign.
It's a good thing that Vivek himself came here to bring us some amusing takes so we can ignore the "Trump is a crook and Biden is a crook" comment just above.
It would actually be "better" if climate change deniers argue that climate change doesn't exist and that the science is wrong. That way their selling point would be "everything is fine, let's keep going" instead of "feck the kids and the future, let's have a literal race to the bottom".
It would actually be "better" if climate change deniers argue that climate change doesn't exist and that the science is wrong. That way their selling point would be "everything is fine, let's keep going" instead of "feck the kids and the future, let's have a literal race to the bottom".
So what you're saying is he can't see further than his own nose, gotcha.
Yep without the front runner Trump it felt even more hypernormal. Pretty much everyone there and everyone watching knew it was all pointless.
Very strange debate.
When you’re a stark bullshitter, facts are just pesky irritants…
Looks like a man that felt relief from an unleashed fart that been holding in only to realize there was fluid in that release.
Newsom didn't destroy California.
If you're referring to the stuff in your last paragraph, that's the consequence of 50 years of right wing and neoliberal capitalist policies more than anything Newsom has done. When the profit motive is glorified above all else, inequality isn't seen as a problem, and social safety nets are systemically cut over those 50 years this is what you get. California being so populous and such a mecca for transplants from around the country and around the world will bear the brunt of that.
A significant portion of the GOP voting base probably believes it.
Dealeo
GOP just flirts with a non white option and then reverts to actual contenders. It happened previously Cain and Carson too. Do they even have a non white Governor?
Haley?
She’s called Nikki and looks like a white person that just returned from Cancun. Doesn’t count.
Yeah I forgot her and Bobby Jindal. Perfect examples since they needed to whitewash themselves to get elected to office.
Accurate description.
The only thing I do not know much is about the ‘migrant crisis’. Is it really a crisis (let’s say more than usual, and more than European countries etc’ or just drawn out of proportion from right-wing media like Fox and co?
It's not quite the same for Hispanics, but Ted Cruz is actually Rafael Cruz.
These premises all being entirely factually incorrect though of course. Climate change is already both costing a fortune, and resulting in worldwide political instability, and it's getting worse. And economically speaking, investing in green technology - which is what consumers both want and need - is easily a better way to grow your economy than to keep mining coal and hope people miraculously want it again.
Meanwhile China is absolutely steaming ahead on the green technology front, even as their overall economy falters, primarily due to the struggles of their traditional industries such as construction.
http://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202302/14/content_WS63ead393c6d0a757729e6b8c.html#:~:text=Newly installed capacity of renewable,Dapeng, an official with the
^ for example.
The IRA (US one not Irish one!) will be the best thing that's happened to the US for a long time.
Yeah dude - they've been dumping some 100,000 migrants into the City, placing them in homeless shelters which were overflowing as it is. Since then it's been political ping pong amongst the useless local/federal politicians, but all I know is that there a lot more people splayed on the streets, street corners, benches etc.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/nyc-migrant-crisis-explained.html
https://www.google.com/search?clien...B&biw=1440&bih=710&dpr=1#imgrc=gOiPAwpAtnyy1M
100%, and I hope to fckng G-d it doesn't get repealed by the Repubs