Occasional, high quality polls are fine, but I agree, we don't need every political polls tweet in this thread.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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Occasional, high quality polls are fine, but I agree, we don't need every political polls tweet in this thread.
I wonder what happened around those years...
Yes there should be a polls thread like for transfer tweets.
Kosovo declared independence. Duh.
Hey mods, make a poll to see if we need more polls.
I pay no attention to them, people lie, the only poll that matters is on the day
I try to only post the higher rated ones but fine with stopping if that's what the people want.
Caught some of the debate from last night. Walz is just a very likeable guy and he finished strong. Easy to see why Harris picked him.
for whatever reason the harris campaign decided to stop using the phrases they used while erasing the massive polling deficit she inherited
Cheers but that's not what I meant. Was looking for the real technical details. Sample size, how to that ensure they had a truly representative sample ...etc. My guess is that most of those polls are done willy nilly without bothering to get a representative sample. Thus the wild swings we see from poll to poll.
There's a link at the bottom of the page that gives you more details. https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/02Oct2024-toplines
Thanks again. No way that was proper sampling thus the results aren't very meaningful. Polls like that are just clickbait
Trump must be fuming that his VP did a far better job in the debate than he did with his.
Already asked his team if he can fire this couch....... err... slouch.
And now she "is going back"!
I was hoping that Vance would get more shine and it would trigger Trump into debating again.
Trump seems dead set against it, which tells us that he knows he took a beating!
Walz was kind of disappointing in the debate. Really think it was a mistake for Harris not to pick Shapiro. The kind of mistake that loses you an election.
I think she made a good choice, VP debates hardly matter much anyway.
Either choice was fine though.
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At some point, especially when we get this close to the election, you feel tired of polls. “Harris jumps to a 3-point lead in GA” to be followed by another poll declaring “Trump is 2 points in GA.”
Then same with other states.
As for debates: no more for me. People started voting. Move on to campaigning and talking to voters.
It's just white noise, I need some analysis at least.
Shapiro would be getting killed from the far left for his stance in Israel. Harris dodged a bullet by not picking him
The far left are irrelevant in America at this moment in time. Shapiro would have probably locked down Pennsylvania for her and is an incredible public speaker.
It's not just the far left though. The vast majority of democrat voters want a ceasefire, and there are various ethnic groups they'd almost certainly lose in key areas - eg Arab voters in Michigan, if she bunked with a vehement apologist like him.
The Jack Smith filing just dropped
HIs Obama voice puts me off as a very fake individual
Very rarely is a VP pick the kind of mistake that loses you an election. Maybe never? Eithe way I reckon they'd have to be far more an actively bad pick than Walz.
The VP shouldnt matter too much, but in this election it could. Apart from vibes, i'm not sure what Walz brings? He has been a let down for me. I cant see him bringing in any new voters for Harris and it seems that he has a creative memory around firing a gun in war, being in Tiananmen Square during the protests and the rank he retired at.
I agree. Shapiro has a 65% approval rating as Governor in the state that the models say will give either candidate a 95% chance of winning the election, if won.
But no, Harris was worried about being overshadowed by Shapiro and what the left of the party would think about having a Jew on the ticket.
The smear campaign by the GOP worked wonders on him. The Genocide Josh nonsense came from them, im sure.
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Unless that person is Sarah Palin. At the very least McCain would have probably got a little closer if he hadnt picked that moron.
Democrat policies are killing the families of their own voters.
Just like how Paul Ryan locked down Ohio for Mitt Romney, or Chris Sununu (won his re-election by 30 pts in 2020 btw) locked down NH for Trump, or Glen Youngkin gonna lock down VA for Trump?
Home state argument doesn’t apply to VP, it really doesn’t, and it’s shaky at best even when applied to Presidential candidates. It’s one of those things that’s not backed up by facts or data but has become accepted wisdom due to the chattering Beltway pundits/political operatives.
Hilarious and disturbing.
Paul Ryan was from Wisconsin.
I don't think VP makes a huge deal of difference in the grand scheme of things (and to be honest, for a half black, half Indian woman, an old white man probbably isn't the worst thing in the world for some) but Harris was unlikely to pick someone who would outshine her. Walz won't. Shapiro....probably would have.
Which Obama won in 2012.
Which Obama carried by 5 points.
(In my defense, I keep getting Paul Ryan and Tim Ryan mixed up)
No he isn't he sounds like Aldi Obama.
When Harris inevitably loses, the discourse around Shapiro will be unbearable.
I don't understand all the negativity, GOP is a party that hasn't actually had a good election since 2016.
There is nothing inevitable about them.
The margin was even bigger: 6.7%.
To those who prefer Shapiro, he could have won PA for Harris, but not MI, WI, NV, AZ or GA. Shapiro is not a Midwesterner, even though we, for some reason, tend sometimes to put PA in the Midwestern block. Winning PA would be huge, but not enough.
Harris went with a less controversial choice of a running mate. Shapiro would have become an issue himself every day for 100 days. That’s campaign-crushing.
And, no, it’s not just about Arab voters in MI. Young voters who oppose what’s happening in Gaze wouldn’t like him either.
No, this is just my own pessimism shining through.