Yes, everyone knows that Trump is the alternative, but that is not going to animate people to go out of their way to vote for Harris. At best, it would be a good excuse to not be bothered to vote at all. She has to actually convince people to vote for her by being aspirational about something, much as Obama did. Otherwise Trump is simply going to go negative the rest of the way and erode her favorables enough to suppress her turnout and win.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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Yes, everyone knows that Trump is the alternative, but that is not going to animate people to go out of their way to vote for Harris. At best, it would be a good excuse to not be bothered to vote at all. She has to actually convince people to vote for her by being aspirational about something, much as Obama did. Otherwise Trump is simply going to go negative the rest of the way and erode her favorables enough to suppress her turnout and win.
Everything spare GA is trending red today.
Are you sure? There is still a huge amount of Anti-Trump sentiment, just like there was in 2020. That helped Biden massively in 2020, even though Biden wasn't exactly an inspiring candidate.
There difference today is that many seem to have amnesia about just how terrible Trump was for fours years.
But I do agree, she does have to inspire people to to the polls. The massive number of new voter registrations, especially under 25, since she started her campaign is a great sign. She needs to follow up with good policy that appeals to this demographic. One of their biggest issue will be getting on the housing ladder so keep talking about that.
Everything spare GA is trending red today.
Source?
539 still has Harris winning 57 times out of 100.
I did see a bunch of Insider Advantage and Trafalgar Group statewide polls drop. Both are Republican leaning pollsters.
How do those polls translate to that winning percentage? It’s Nate Silver, right? Surely must be overestimating the post-DNC bump.Everything spare GA is trending red today.
Silver has his own site. Some of the data may not be available to non-subscribers.
Its a part of his model. Not sure how he creates it, but some of what he is saying does make sense because Harris currently has a 3.5% popular advantage, which makes the race a complete toss up at this point. Also, the fact that PA is a growing concern for Harris is probably helping Trump in Silver's probability analysis.
Nothing else the Dems can do in response to those polls than keep doing what they're doing. I remain utterly baffled how after excellent press of a pretty accepted excellent DNC at the same time Donald is falling apart can be causing these movements.
Maybe Fox News is just that powerful. It's kind of all I've got to go on. Because nothing that is actually happening should see people tending towards Trump, imo.
Maybe Fox News is just that powerful. It's kind of all I've got to go on. Because nothing that is actually happening should see people tending towards Trump, imo.
Undecided? Seriously?
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I hear he is putting the price up for $20 a month.
This would be helpful if Trump was actually running in 2022. No one thinks Walker, Oz, Mastriano, Lake et al were going to draw the types of numbers as they could if Trump was actually running for President the same year.
That goes both ways, dem candidates would have recieved more votes too, and this is looking like a better national environment for dems than 2022.
The point is they didn't need more votes. Trump's hand selected stooges who run in years when he isn't running are always going to underperform because Trump himself isn't running.
Kari Lake is doing terrible in the polls, Trump being on top of the ballot doesn't appear to help her any at all this time, unless polls underestimate her by a lot this time around.
That's because she's a terrible candidate whose time has already come and gone, and she is facing a surging opponent in a state that is trending blue in recent years. Even if she wasn't a vacuous, clout chasing charlatan, she would be losing whether she was a MAGA stooge or an ordinary Republican.
How can you be sure? Gallego isn't even an incumbent, if there was a "normal" republican as senate candidate, no guarantee he would be the favorite at all, Arizona isn't that blue yet.
Because he's hispanic and a vet in a state where the primary population center (Maricopa county) is over 30% hispanic at a time when the entire state is trending Democrat. Therefore he was always going to do well and because of his military background also get some R leaning independents, especially when juxtaposed against a grifting fraud like Lake.
Wow.
I mean I don't know, but surely some part of that is illegal? That's real?
Anytime you think you've seen the 'if any other politician did this it would be over' thing with Trump, it just moves on to Tuesday. To be fair, the Arlington Cemetery would have finished off anyone else, and that was just last week.
I'm not even mad at Trump, he's just a pathetic, sad old man wasting his final years being hated and hating the world. It's the fact that his followers like this behaviour, and people like Elon Musk condone it that get to me. F*ck em. F*ck em all. Done pretending they're good people I just need to make more of an effort to understand.
Things Trump has done that would instantly kill any other political career #507
And don't forget folks, it was only last week he was whining and bitching about Obama making a mean joke and how he never ever makes mean jokes, or online commrnts or says horrible or nasty things about anyone. Ever..
Earlier today, he again called Elizabeth Warren Pocahontas.
And don't forget folks, it was only last week he was whining and bitching about Obama making a mean joke and how he never ever makes mean jokes, or online commrnts or says horrible or nasty things about anyone. Ever..
Earlier today, he again called Elizabeth Warren Pocahontas.
They didnt overestimate Trump vote. They overestimated the republican vote 6% more because trump was not jn the ballot. The reality is that in 2016 and 2020, trump was underestimated by a few points. Lets see this year, but between the overestomation on D vs Trump and 3% is needed for EC for D, so far is not enough for Kamala. But much better than Biden
The fact she pronounces "Caramel" correctly is enough for me. Give her the nuclear codes now.
I know it's Megyn Kelly, and I think she's on some shitty little network nobody watches, but if this is true could it cause ay harm to him and/or Harris?
I must say I'm a little skeptical how nobody else got this first, but Kelly used to be one of Fox's Top presenters so I suppose she could have got it first. From the teaser clip of certainly doesn't look good for Walz to have 4 men who served under his command come out against him. So it going to be an exclusive that's going to blow up? Or a big nothing burger? Or Fake News?
With how the narrative has shaped up regarding Walz and Vance, it was only a matter of time before they’d come up with some smear. They must have been scouring America for anyone with something bad to say. Walz has probably commanded hundreds of guardsmen over a +20 year period, so not that surprising that some would hold a grudge. If more come forward it might get bad.
It's hard to compete when there's nothing to hold over the other side. The asymmetry of it remains incredible.
Sounds like some Fox News bullshit that won’t go anywhere. To think this shit was not checked when picking him is delusional.
Nothing burger for me. I'd imagine that those who will watch and devour this shite are already voting Trump anyway.
The point here is right wing pollsters have form for flooding the public with dogshit consistently lean R polls. Trafalgar released a down ballot race poll that were off by 33(!) points, and the less said about the likes of Rasmussen or Echelon Insights where their chief pollster are actively shilling on Twitter for Trump the better.
Predictive polling models are like the human body, if you feed crap in, crap comes out. Silver missed it 16, 20, and 22 just like the rest of the field, and now his model includes all the polls I just listed. He can weight them all he wants, but if they are all that is there in battleground polls past recent couple of weeks there will be a movement towards Trump in his model (which, interestingly btw, never off by more than 2% from Polymarket, which he now works for). Meanwhile, national polling have shown a pretty uniform 3 point shift towards Harris in the pre-post Convention period, and recent polls for Nebraska or Minnesota shows similar margin to 2020, which is consistent with evidence we have seen elsewhere of a D+3/4 top ticket.
It’s gonna be close, but we always have to keep in mind that 1) polling errors can happen in both direction and 2) right wing pollsters are actively doing a psy op by skewing the averages with their biased, dogshit polls designed to galvanise their base.
Trump 2020 was not underestimated in the sunbelt, for the record, only exception being NC.
Two thoughts:
1. If that ends up being the case, great, but it doesn't change what the Dems need to do
2. I don't understand how creating complancency (with overestimated support) does anything to actually help Trump, other than feel good about himself. If it means voters are less likely to bother voting, or increase pressure on Dems to show up feels counter-productie to me
Dems have smart people running this campaign, experienced folk doing the ground game and Trump is literally paying for ads to air around Mar-a-Lago so he feels happy and admitting in Fox News interviews that he tried to steal the election. And it's still going to be very close.
1) Yes, even a D+4 top ticket is still a knife’s edge election. Tipping point state in that scenario is < 1%.
2) The Cheeto has openly touted Rasmussen in the past, massaging his ego is certainly part of it. On the broader point though, public polling is strong perception, Republican’s enthusiasm is lower at the moment and if all they see is meaningful consistent leads for Harris in national and state pollings, that can discourage voters who are repulsed by T but consistent party soldiers to turn out.
Kelly's show is actually on YouTube. I doubt any credible tv network would touch her at this point.
As for Walz, no one is going to vote based on Walz or Vance. At this point its all just noise designed to lower Harris' numbers and suppress her turnout in Nov.
American elections are really something. It's all a big entertainment tv show. And even smart people play along.
I get what you mean. But yhis pollsters are not considered for the averages. Rasmussen itself is out of 538 average due to its questionable methodology and had been around longer than any of these pollsters that you mentioned so i am sure they dont make the cut either. As it stands, it will be the same pollsters more or less so is more probable that the average will underestimate trump than not
Till the oposite happens due to better pollying method, due to people not being ashamed of saying that they are voting for trump, is wishful thinking and going against historical facts
And is a neverending story. Next day of election, is time for midterms
We are talking about billions in a 4 year cycle burned down. Instead of putting it in the economy, partially to lobby to feck over the country
Nate Silver is no longer with 538, his model on his substack does include those polls, which is what Raoul showed with Trump chances increasing. Other models from DecisionDesk, 538 or people like Sabato, Wasserman etc don’t show any ‘Trump gain’.
The opposite already happened, a lot, since Dobbs. Democratic candidates have regularly outperformed polls in nearly election, from gubernatorial, senate, congressional, specials. It’s just people being reticent of the ‘Trump factor’ and not ready to acknowledge it
I dont follow nate silver but 538. And their averages should be similar to 2016 abd 2020, where by the way, Rasmussen was accounted and now not.
And 538 average underestimated trump. Especially in the rust belt. Currently kamala has lower numbers than Biden and clinton. And still have to overcome the 2-4% EC vs popular vote
So if we take in account the past as we should if we want to be consistent with historical statistics, seeing now kamala as a winner is going with your gut and wishful thinking.
What nate says now is not comparable with anything because his method was not there in the past but for what i read here and a quick google search, currently trump has a very big percentage to win
So again. If the polls dont change, that they might specially last month, Trump will most likely be the next POTUS