2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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Heather Cox Richardson put this out today on her podcast/substack. She is a Harvard-educated historian (BA, MA, PhD) who creates a daily synopsis of contemporary events and relates them to historical examples.
August 27, 2024 (Tuesday)
Sam Stein of The Bulwark reported yesterday that the Trump campaign is about to start running ads in the area around Mar-a-Lago. Trump insiders say the campaign has paid almost $50,000 to run ads to make Trump and local donors feel good. On August 14, Kevin Cate, former spokesperson for President Barack Obama, predicted that Trump would spend his first television dollars “in Florida (for his ego and against his team’s advice). And that’s how you’ll know we’re in landslide territory.”
Predictions about future elections and an average of $3.08 will get you a cup of coffee these days, but there are some interesting signs out there today. Pollster Tom Bonier noted what he called “the Harris Effect”: the 13 states that have updated their voters files since July 21—when Biden said he would not accept the Democratic nomination for president—have seen “incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2020, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters.”
The registrations of young Black women have almost tripled compared with the same period in 2020. The registrations of young Hispanic women are up by 150%. “Black women overall have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020,” Bonier wrote.
These changes benefit Democrats, Bonier noted. “Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 pts Dem, as compared to +6 during the same week in 2020.”
The Cook Political Report today moved the electoral votes of Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, and the governor's races in North Carolina and Washington, toward the Democrats. Minnesota, New Hampshire, and the Washington governor have gone from leaning Democratic to likely Democratic wins; the North Carolina governor’s race has gone from Toss Up to Lean Democratic; North Carolina has gone from Lean Republican to Toss Up."
And more interesting info.
https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/august-27-2024-1ce
August 27, 2024 (Tuesday)
Sam Stein of The Bulwark reported yesterday that the Trump campaign is about to start running ads in the area around Mar-a-Lago. Trump insiders say the campaign has paid almost $50,000 to run ads to make Trump and local donors feel good. On August 14, Kevin Cate, former spokesperson for President Barack Obama, predicted that Trump would spend his first television dollars “in Florida (for his ego and against his team’s advice). And that’s how you’ll know we’re in landslide territory.”
Predictions about future elections and an average of $3.08 will get you a cup of coffee these days, but there are some interesting signs out there today. Pollster Tom Bonier noted what he called “the Harris Effect”: the 13 states that have updated their voters files since July 21—when Biden said he would not accept the Democratic nomination for president—have seen “incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2020, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters.”
The registrations of young Black women have almost tripled compared with the same period in 2020. The registrations of young Hispanic women are up by 150%. “Black women overall have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020,” Bonier wrote.
These changes benefit Democrats, Bonier noted. “Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 pts Dem, as compared to +6 during the same week in 2020.”
The Cook Political Report today moved the electoral votes of Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, and the governor's races in North Carolina and Washington, toward the Democrats. Minnesota, New Hampshire, and the Washington governor have gone from leaning Democratic to likely Democratic wins; the North Carolina governor’s race has gone from Toss Up to Lean Democratic; North Carolina has gone from Lean Republican to Toss Up."
And more interesting info.
https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/august-27-2024-1ce
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No stats on Pennsylvania?
They just published sun belt states.
When it comes to polls underestimating Trump, as is often mentioned, in terms of battleground states, its largely a rustbelt-thing.
He was not underestimated by much, if any, in the sunbelt states in 2020, with the exception being North Carolina, so really, expecting polls to underestimate him there doesn't have much basis.
Now, i happen to believe polls won't underestimate Trump in general this time around, but thats a seperate discussion.
He was not underestimated by much, if any, in the sunbelt states in 2020, with the exception being North Carolina, so really, expecting polls to underestimate him there doesn't have much basis.
Now, i happen to believe polls won't underestimate Trump in general this time around, but thats a seperate discussion.
Polling numbers still looks, how to put it, completely insane to me, and kinda has been the entire year, when it comes to senate vs presidential.
I'll take them at their results though, the voting habbits of the last 10-12 years are completely reversed, and people vote like its 2010 again, and now even non-incumbents like Gallego are running 10-15 points ahead of top of the ticket.
It feels to me, the reality should be somewhere in the middle, but i guess it is possible that Rosen wins by like 15 points in the swing state of Nevada, while Harris wins by 2, or that she wins by 2 in Arizona, while Gallego wins by 15.
I'll take them at their results though, the voting habbits of the last 10-12 years are completely reversed, and people vote like its 2010 again, and now even non-incumbents like Gallego are running 10-15 points ahead of top of the ticket.
It feels to me, the reality should be somewhere in the middle, but i guess it is possible that Rosen wins by like 15 points in the swing state of Nevada, while Harris wins by 2, or that she wins by 2 in Arizona, while Gallego wins by 15.
What success? Since 2016 surprise win, he then lost every election or strongly underperformed in the midterms.
Trump's base are 35% diehard followers but the never Trumpers are much bigger group.
That's why I'm confident he will lose again despite all the gerrymandering and advantages the GOP got from the electoral vote.
Would the US be a real democracy the popular vote would decide and the race would be a non contest already.
Apologies if already posted.
So since Harris is doing an interview with Walz today, the line of attack shifts from "She's not doing any interviews" to "She's only doing interviews with a man next to her".
I remember Trump doing an interview with Pence before that election which was in effect a televised verbal fellation but nobody had an issue that there are the two of them.
Shame on Meghan McCain.
Jeb would kill for that subtitle
I can't remember who first said this, but she is the walking case for the estate tax.
True, but most of her fame/wealth is from trading on her dad’s name, so not sure how you tax that unless you charge her $10 each time the phrase “my day” left her lips. Actually, not a bad idea as it could pay off the national debt in about 6 months.
Yeah, on a level playing field she'd be mediocre Tampa Bay realtor.
That's different of course. This is a man graciously inviting a woman into his interview. When Harris does it, she is desperately clinging to a man, so she doesn't panic during the interview. Or something.
Such a dumb take.
It's an opportunity to introduce Walz, as much as anything.
After all that Trump has said about her and her family, she still want to stick the boot into Democrats.
Can't find the video on Youtube, probably because Fox News don't want to share the news of their own poll, but it's quite hilarious to hear Brett Baier cover it.....
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6361164004112
He sounds like he is giving a eulogy at his own funeral!
Shit just got real.
Its also a poor comparison given that McCain had a decades long record of extemporaneous interviews, whereas Palin was inexperienced on the national stage. Harris has plenty of national level experience but simply doesn't like to give interviews. She herself has conceded she's not big on interviews and prefers policy.
A good sign for Dems, assuming it lasts into election day.
Time to break out this guy and his iron dome again...
https://judgedredd.fandom.com/wiki/Robert_L._Booth
Empty Dome would be more apt.
Its even less than 35%. The numbers of people who identify as being Republican or Democrat have been more or less stuck in the 20s for most of the past few years. Independents outnumber either party, which results in presidential elections basically coming down to which party can galvanize their base to turn out in bigger numbers and get a bigger share of independents.
The Lincoln Project will probably run some too, just to piss Trump off.
The more that comes out about this Arlington cemetery incident with trump team the more pissed it makes me. They think they can do whatever they want too.
She had to drop her follow-up of the incident report
They spent the past few days saying she had a "mental episode", she was a liar and despicable. This is exactly what happened to election workers around the country, we have seen it with families of the courts and DAs prosecuting cases against Trump etc. I get her not going forward with it personally. When you have the entire GOP showing you they will retaliate, drag your name through the mud. You could have Jim Jordan sending subpoenas out to your neighbors to embarass you. They have no limits.
How does gerrymandering affects the presidential race? I’ve seen it many times written in this forum, but it is absolutely false, and it makes no sense whatsoever.
The only possible case gerrymandering can affect the presidential race is if no candidate wins enough electoral race, thus the decision goes to the House. Or if you are talking for Nebraska and Maine districts that have a grand total of one vote each.
It is really diabolical to use these families at Political props.
Even if the families are pro Trump, which they seem to be, and were happy for them to come and take pictures and video, there should be respect for the rules of this section of the cemetery.
To disregard, what i believe is federal law and then to say the staff member was having a "mental episode" is just disgusting. Yet not at all surprising. The people around Trump are low lifes.
BUT. From a Harris campaign perspective, they have to be very careful with this. Yes, this episode at Arlington was bad and yes, Trump and Mike Pompeo setup an awful situation by making an agreement with the Taliban for withdrawal, that included the release of 5000+ Taliban fighters. But what will be remembered most, is the badly coordinated withdrawal and the life lost. That will be pinned on Biden and by association Harris. I expect Trump will attack Harris with this during the debate, so she best have a good response ready.
Harris should avoid the issue like the plague as it could only go wrong for her. Let Waltz answer it if need be since he actually served.
I mean no question should catch her offguard at this point in an interview. I would be perfectly fine with a respectful to the families of the service members killed pivot and not get into the weeds there.
Does Trump enjoy similar support from army members as he does from the police?
The military aren't a monolithic voting block. Younger members tend to be more liberal these days. Older ones probably still skew conservative.