2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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If he couldn't guarantee PA then Shapiro would have been the wrong choice. Far too many minor scandals that the right wing media could have clung onto (ardently pro-Israel, office sex scandal, that murder investigation as DA), not to mention his race. They're calling it anti-semetic that he wasn't chosen, but they would have went off in the grossest way if he was.
She would have a better chance of winning PA with the state’s popular governor on the ticket than someone from another state. No matter what Harris’ internal polling says, it’s just common sense. She wouldn’t be selecting the likes of Cooper, Kelly, or Whitmer without expecting at least a 1-2 point bump in those states. The same applies to Shapiro, probably even more so because of his popularity in PA.
Bear in mind that most models give Harris a 5 to 10 percent chance of winning the Presidency without winning Pennsylvania, so the Dems may be playing with fire on this one.
Moreover, the reporting this evening is that Shapiro was asking for a more active role as VP, whereas Walz was allegedly deferential and submissive. Therefore Harris not selecting him doesn’t appear to be because she didn’t think he could win PA, but rather because they didn’t click during their interview. Shapiro has POTUS energy and Walz is a better fit for a kind of VP role, especially since Harris can’t afford to be upstaged by her running mate.
The VP candidate isn't running for president. They are there to do whatever is needed for the actual candidate to win. Go on the attack and drive up turnout whilst avoiding looking like a moron.
A 'President in Waiting' might have been more applicable for old Joe, but that's not the case for Harris. Ironically, it's now more of an issue for Trump.
Second squad member voted out this cycle. $8m of AIPAC money involved
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Literally any Democratic VP candidate is going to be labeled as a socialist and a commie by Republicans. They could have picked Joe Manchin or Mitt Romney, and Republicans would've claimed they were a socialist. Walz is the Biden to Kamala's Obama. Kamala provides the erudite, eloquent politician to Walz's regular guy.
Walz is a pretty moderate Democrat who's willing to work with various coalitions to get things done. If Republicans want to attack him for providing free meals to school children (while they try to bring back child labor), they're welcome to go for it. When people like JD Vance are trying to ban IVF, he can talk about how his family wouldn't exist without IVF.
Any changes in the polling numbers since the VP pick or is it too early?
I just cannot see a mixed race (none of them white) woman winning the US presidential election. Won't believe it unless the actual results show otherwise. It's an uphill battle.
I just cannot see a mixed race (none of them white) woman winning the US presidential election. Won't believe it unless the actual results show otherwise. It's an uphill battle.
Too early. Give it a few days.
On the second bit, its completely possible although it needs to be the right candidate imo.
Poor Van is getting clobbered on Twitter today after his comments yesterday morning
We need to know his thoughts on the Replacements too. He definitely likes the Hold Steady.
Dems backed themselves into trouble over the last 20+ years thinking that simply being on the right side of many public policy issues would be enough to convince people to vote for them. The thought was that dense, wannabe West Wing policy wonk poetry would inspire the masses. Nope. People are more divided then ever, living in their own bubbles with the attention span of ants and there is no shared reality. Vibes win screen time and attention spans. Walz is taking the Dems' post-Biden vibes to maximum levels. He's got a track record of supporting their most popular policies and knows how to deliver the message without sounding like a Washington Post op ed. Plain and simple can be just as inspiring delivered by the right person, e.g. a football coach. That's the best bet to keep changing the tenor nationally.
The path to victory will ultimately be paved with small donors and volunteers who will reach out into their communities to GOTV. That's happening now on a turbocharged level. This is a real race now and Dems are in a relative position of strength with their candidates just getting ramped up.
The path to victory will ultimately be paved with small donors and volunteers who will reach out into their communities to GOTV. That's happening now on a turbocharged level. This is a real race now and Dems are in a relative position of strength with their candidates just getting ramped up.
Oh for sure, it's a toss-up. And another stock crash can be game over. But it wouldn't even be a toss-up if Biden was still in. I thought replacing him with her was the right choice, and still I'm surprised by how quick and dramatic the polling shift has been. I think the switch - and specifically to her - has been vindicated.
I don't see it. Hilary came close because she was running against Trump. Any other generic republican would have won more comfortably, imo. Same here with Harris, she might get close because she is running against Trump. However, she would lose by healthy margin against any other republican.
How do you figure that?
'Any other Republican' haven't been able to topple Trump and he's now running a third time after losing the last general election. Are we really sure Haley or DeSantis would keep the Trump bloc and then add to it? Seems a stretch to me.
Or do you think fewer Dems would turn out to vote against a non-Trump candidate?
I don't disagree that Harris would lose to someone like Nikki Haley, but in terms of winning against Trump, I think she has a 50/50 chance because the Dems seem pretty galvanized against preventing another four years of Trump. If Biden announced last year he wasn't running, its doubtful Harris would've won the nomination against the likes of Newsom, Shapiro, or Whitmer imo. Fortunately for her, Biden selected her as VP, which made her the defacto default replacement for him if he couldn't continue.
A lot more independents, and even a minority of Dems, won't be averse to voting for a republican candidate if it wasn't Trump.
Yeah, true. Kamala happened to be at the right place at the right time. I don't think she had a chance if she got primaried.
I hope she wins but I just can't see it. Although, I don't believe an iota in all the doomsday scenarios with Project 2025 or whatnot, another four years of Trump are really going to be a shit show.
In a vacuum, sure, that could be true. But in the real world, I think Trump generates more enthusiastic support (and opposition) than his Republican adversaries. He got 74mil votes in 2020. Haley or DeSantis aren't topping that, certainly not by inspiring a massive shift in what is usually a relatively small number of true swing votes
He was just posting it to see if his followers could come up with something negative because he couldn't
Absolutely nothing to suggest Haley couldn’t have outperformed Trump in a general election, in fact quite the contrary.
Walz is one hell of a public speaker
They're not beating the weird accusations anytime soon.
It wasn’t though? It’s on his X.
What Vacuum?
74m or 80m doesn't matter. What matters is how you do in a bunch of swing states. The path to the presidency goes through them and it's very hard to see a woman, especially one of color, come out on top in those to win the presidency.
A good %age of people aren't tied to any party and like to think of themselves as independents. There are also a very few single issue voters. e.g. take Gaza, it is one of the top most issues on Redcafe but when you meet people in general it's not a big enough concern for them to move the needle.
Maybe it'll be different this election and Kamala will be able to break the glass ceiling; however, I'll have to see it to believe it.
They are coping so hard right now. Fun to see.
It's hard to say much about turnout in 2020 because of covid-era laws that made voting easier. In both 2016 and 2020 he failed to reach Romney 2012's percentage of the vote (47.2).
He has some strenghts, especially if you consider how much he sucks.
Too bad Magnolia Grill in Durham closed a few years back. You would have dug it, it had Stitt vibes.
Is this creepy fecker still doing the rounds? I've noticed he's at least stopped trying to fill in his hairline with permanent marker.
How do you turn 12 huge states with 69 million inhabitants into a coastal city? That's a weird thing to say.
I mean Mogadishu has some pretty nice beaches tbf.
It seems like Iowans should be made aware that if they vote blue they will get white sandy beaches with an equatorial climate and a shoreline. I'm not sure they know.
What is unquestionably true is that Trump initiated, or accelerated a flip of low educated, blue collar, rural white voters across the country, and especially in Midwestern swing states, that Democrats were once competitive with. Counties that Bill Clinton used to win, or Gore/Kerry/Obama would lose by 10-12 points, are being won by 30/40 points by the Republicans. Trump isn’t a popular candidate, but the fact that during the last 8-9 years he’s put Florida and Ohio out of reach and made WI/MI/PA super competitive at presidential level is beyond what the milquetoast traditional Republicans managed.
Of course, the flip side is suburban voters that were once Republican is now Democratic, and MAGA candidates struggle mightily in non-Trump years in statewide competitive races, but that’s a small price to pay for the 6-3 SCOTUS majority and the slew of legislative wins the Heritage Foundation and Evangelical right have slobbered over for years.
He's a great orator and knows how to get the crowd going.
He'll wipe the floor with Vance if the debate actualy happens.
Will Walz walz into a VP spot.
I'll get my coat.
I'll get my coat.
Iowa also shifted to the right quite a bit.
The flip side, though, is that now AZ and GA are competitive, while CO and NH are out of reach for Republicans. In addition, Texas went to Romney by roughly 16 points. In 2020, it was 5.5 for Trump. And no, it’s not because of internal migration. This change reflects changes among white voters in the suburbs, such as the suburbs of Dallas and Houston.
Trump added to the GOP but also took from the GOP. It’s unclear yet what would be the total, and this will be determined not just this year.
Your first instinct was that it was made up, and then it was Trump - the bloke who wouldn't know the truth if it was stapleed to his forehead!
Walz is the type of guy who is always called 'Coach' by his former players until he passes away. I'm lucky to have a few coaches from all the sports i played in high school still in my life whom I still refer to as 'Coach.' Wouldn't think about calling them anything else. The bond between coaches & players, especially in American football here in the states, is unyielding no matter how old either side is.
Looking forward to seeing his former players interviewed, especially the ones on both the 0-27 teams & the high school champions.
Looking forward to seeing his former players interviewed, especially the ones on both the 0-27 teams & the high school champions.
Great VP pick, the only issue is that it could be argued he is already outshining and upstaging Harris but I guess it would have been worse with Shapiro.