Rs are already greasing up the socialism clips.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Nate Silver sums up my position:
" It's fine. But Shapiro was the higher-upside option that was probably worth the risk. "
https://www.natesilver.net/p/tim-walz-is-a-minnesota-nice-choice
" It's fine. But Shapiro was the higher-upside option that was probably worth the risk. "
https://www.natesilver.net/p/tim-walz-is-a-minnesota-nice-choice
Well, it tracks when the Republicans call literally everything socialist-communist-Nazism
That's because VPs haven't been previously selected based on the states they represent. They were selected based on the repoire they had with the main candidate. And none of them were in a situation where one state was as much a tipping point state as PA is. So if someone like Shapiro (who is insanely popular in his home state) could've added just 1 or 2 percent to Harris' votes in PA, she would've likely won the state and the election.
The gun thing is interesting as a con, because from what I read he used to have a very high NRA grade but changed after school shootings. If the GOP want to go down that avenue... okay?
He’s at 49% approval now, no longer ‘insanely’ popular, and that drop came entirely off just being touted, not even actually on the ticket.
Have they ever seen the toad Trump? If he took off his girdle he'd be larger still.
Nate silver did mention that it matters only by 1%. But 1% in a perfect toss-up state is worth it.
Moreover I believe the degree of popularity may play a role. I am not sure Silver analyzed it, but may be a 60%+ approval rate could deliver more than 1%.
But again, last i've looked, Shapiro had an approval rating of around 50%.
This is just your own speculation without any basis in historical evidence. I don't really know what to do with that. You just made up 1-2%, that this will tip the state, and that Pennsylvania will be the deciding state.
I think this is a old Eastern European joke but it applies to America - A poverty stricken man is visited by a genie who grants him one wish but with a restriction. Whatever he wishes for his neighbour will receive twice the amount. The poor man has a long hard think and then wishes to lose one of his eyes!
Looks like this will be a talking point.
I've got Fox News on in the background. Interesting listening to them rush to define Walz. Leavitt is pretty decent at ploughing the exact furrow I expected.
RIP mate
A recent Fox poll has him at 62% among all PA voters. 77% among Dems in another poll. This is in a swing state that Trump won two cycles ago and nearly won again.
I saw 61 or 62% recently. Not sure which poll was it though
Edit: Check Raoul's above this post.
It's worth it for a half hour or so. It's a first class propaganda machine and observing it pour in the fuel and ramp up through the gears is fascinating.
Its from a recent Fox poll.
"A strong majority of Pennsylvanians approve of their governor. According to a recent Fox News poll, 62% of Pennsylvania voters approve of Shapiro, compared with just 32% who disapprove. That 30-point difference is near historic levels of approval for a Pennsylvania governor, a difficult job considering how evenly the state is split between Democrats and Republicans, who control the state Senate."
Really good post, and completely agree with him. Should have been Whitmer, shame she wasn't properly considered. But between Walz and Shapiro, I thought that Shapiro was easily the better choice.
Walz is quite a safe, but not particularly inspiring choice. In some ways, like when Obama chose Biden.
Move over Genocide Josh, there's a new Sheriff in town.
Whitmer rejected being a VP pick, no?
That’s what she said, we never know if she was offered (probably not).
I think Harris wanted a white man for electibility issues (similar how Biden chose her as a black woman, or Obama chose Biden as a white old man considering that he himself was a young black man). Kinda sucks that people have to go for aesthetics (race, gender etc) than political substance (someone with similar political views), but I guess that’s the elections for you.
Personally, I would like the P to chose VP someone whose strongly aligns in political views and if the worst happens, someone who will push P’s agenda, rather than someone who look different. Ideally these things should be about policies.
I would also have preferred Whitmer. I disagree about Walz though. I can see him inspiring a fair number of people.
At any rate, these are now the two we go to war with.
Also recent.
https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania-...shapiro-approval-rating-during-vp-search/amp/
He’s no doubt popular, but there’s really no guaranteed that the scrutiny from national spotlight wouldn’t put a dent in that, while his other baggages (labour, teacher unions, Israel, sexual assault pay off by aide) can all the contentious issues.
First rule of picking a VP is do no harm, Walz does that. Harris possibly needs more than that, we don’t know, it’s a weird year, but a VP pick can absolutely sink a campaign.
She withdrew before the selection process. Harris' team reached out to a larger group of people they wanted to vet a couple of weeks ago and she probably told them she wasn't' interested at that point.
That aged like milk.
Walz is the best choice for Harris given the current circumstances. I'm glad she didn't give in to the hype.
But as you know, Biden was pushed by Jim Clyburn to pick a black running mate.
Oh yeah, I do not think the VP will decide the election. People vote for the president, not for the vice president (well technically they vote for both but you know what I mean).
Good statement.
Probably didnt think it was likely that Harris would pick a woman.
If its a Palin type pick then yes I would agree, but Shapiro is the rising star of the party and tipped to be a leading future POTUS candidate, so between his own popularity and his rising star within the party, it would've been a very safe pick. Walz may wind up being safe as well, in that he should be able to resonate among PA audiences (especially the rural ones) and Shapiro can contribute a lot in the Philly suburbs, where his own support is the strongest.
Long live Ekkie Trump!
There's also a bit of long term political calculus at play. If Harris loses (a distinct possibility), then the entire Obama/Biden construct is done in the Dem party, and the likes of Newsom, Shapiro, Whitmer, and maybe one or two others will become the new generation who wouldn't be stained by Harris. Newsom and Shapiro in particular would become very strong candidates at that point.
Walz being older, and certainly looks the part, won't be as much of a threat in 8 years time should Harris win, compared to somebody like Shapiro.
Motives aren't strictly this election, differenct factions wants a level playing field come 28/32.