2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

[B. Munich]

The totally normal John Voigt weighs in:

That's comedy, isn't it?

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Expecting Liz Cheney and Kinzinger next.

Radical socialists the lot of them

 

[Mike Smalling]

It’s rather weird also that throughout this process, not once did Newsom name came up. If Harris wins the election then that’s his presidential aspirations gone, since she will be the nominee in 28 and he will be 64 in 32 with his stint as Governor long in the rear view mirror. Senator Newsom just don’t quite have the same ring.

If she loses, well, there might not be an election in 28.

Timing and momentum plays such a big role in who gets a good shot at the Presidency. If Harris becomes a two-term President, who is to say who will be the hot new Democrat in 2032? Maybe Beshear, Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom and Buttigieg will all be out of contention by then.

Biden really screwed these guys over in a way. Should have been a normal primary process to select the candidate.

 

[Raoul]

Timing and momentum plays such a big role in who gets a good shot at the Presidency. If Harris becomes a two-term President, who is to say who will be the hot new Democrat in 2032? Maybe Beshear, Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom and Buttigieg will all be out of contention by then.

Biden really screwed these guys over in a way. Should have been a normal primary process to select the candidate.

Also add Wes Moore to the list of future Dems with POTUS appeal.

You’re spot on about Biden screwing everyone over. Not a single voter voted for Harris for President this year and yet here she is. If Biden pulls out in March, there’s a good chance the Dems would have a different candidate.

 

[Revan]

Timing and momentum plays such a big role in who gets a good shot at the Presidency. If Harris becomes a two-term President, who is to say who will be the hot new Democrat in 2032? Maybe Beshear, Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom and Buttigieg will all be out of contention by then.

Biden really screwed these guys over in a way. Should have been a normal primary process to select the candidate.

Probably it won't matter who is, the Republicans will win. 3 presidencies from the same party will give people fatigue for that party and people tend to blame the party in power for everything, so 12 years will make them quite blameable.

If Harris wins both times, I think the next Democrat president would probably be in 2040, so someone we do not know their names yet.

For Newsom, Shapiro, Whitmer etc to have a good chance of becoming president, Harris has to lose these elections. Or at worst case, lose in 2028.

 

[Revan]

Also add Wes Moore to the list of future Dems with POTUS appeal.

You’re spot on about the Biden screwing everyone over. Not a single voter voted for Harris for President this year and yet here she is. If Biden pulls out in March, there’s a good chance the Dems would have a different candidate.

And probably cost the presidency. A strong Democrat candidate destroys Trump who himself is very beatable. Kamala is far from a strong candidate, and she already seems to have a good chance.

 

[berbatrick]

Since when have you cared about what the numbers say? These were your responses to Biden's poor polling:




This thread is unbelievable sometimes. People making failed prediction after failed prediction and acting like they've got the finger on the pulse of the American electorate.

Thanks for pointing it out.

The conventional wisdom here was that polling in late 2023 and early 2024 meant nothing, and wouldn't till the summer, when Trump's conviction would apparently be the earthquake... when he was convicted and the summer dragged on and polling got worse still, that deadline became the fall, when the campaign actually starts. When he was visibly collapsing on stage, and I, who have zero love for her, said that replacing him with Kamala would be enough to make it a fight, I got multiple disagreements/mocking responses. Then the conversation became about Newsom and Whitmer, and how Kamala is a liability. When Pelosi forced him out and Kamala effortlessly stepped in, and the polls improved overnight, there was frictionless poll posting and celebration of these polls, and equally confidently delivered takes about Superman Shapiro.

I've got plenty of predictions wrong, but I at least wait a day or two before "pivoting" into wholeheartedly endorsing what I thought was wrong or suicidal earlier. Of course, it's not just here. The pro-Kamala crowd on twitter, which was about 2/3rds of the 2020 Bernie people I follow, plus a good number of lib/centre-left pundits, was under siege from armies of Biden-or-bust insanity in their replies (including the original KHive!!), who have literally overnight become Kamala accounts.

The good thing with having zero introspection and frictionless pivoting is you get to make confident takes no matter what, and you get to support your side's Great Leader and their policies no matter what you believed under the previous Great Satan administration. The Dem base is as disciplined and cult-like as the GOP, and, for moral superiority reasons, can't even realise it.*

I don't know if Walz was right - as I've said about 5000 times, Shapiro being unapologetically racist about Palestinians and punitive to their supporters isn't a losing proposition because of how supine the base is, but, there's also a murder investigation involving a friends' family which he seems to have botched/covered-up as AG, which might look bad.

*There are a few smarter ones who have openly embraced total devotion to the Democratic party, "regime-pill" etc.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Although I'm not the target audience ads like this just seem to be complete whiffs:



Walz's statement seems completely benign compared to the (genuinely) weird framing.

 

[Raoul]

 

[Jev]

And probably cost the presidency. A strong Democrat candidate destroys Trump who himself is very beatable. Kamala is far from a strong candidate, and she already seems to have a good chance.

Not sure what it will take for this idea to die but so far she’s looking like a pretty strong candidate.

 

[berbatrick]

what a weak candidate, she came in midway through an election and turned around every poll before saying a single word

 

[Revan]

Not sure what it will take for this idea to die but so far she’s looking like a pretty strong candidate.

She was polling eighth or so when she ran for President, then basically was hidden for 4 years doing kinda nothing.

I think it is more people being excited that the chosen (not elected) candidate is not demented rather than people being genuinely excited about her. When you have Trump on the other hand, who is massively hated by Democrats, and strongly disliked by independents, any non demented Democrat has some chance of winning.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Probably it won't matter who is, the Republicans will win. 3 presidencies from the same party will give people fatigue for that party and people tend to blame the party in power for everything, so 12 years will make them quite blameable.

If Harris wins both times, I think the next Democrat president would probably be in 2040, so someone we do not know their names yet.

For Newsom, Shapiro, Whitmer etc to have a good chance of becoming president, Harris has to lose these elections. Or at worst case, lose in 2028.

That is definitely how things tend to go. There hasn't been a period of more than 3 terms from the same party since FDR and Truman.

First she has to be become POTUS, though, which is not a foregone conclusion. So we might see this current crop in 2028.

 

[Jev]

She was polling eighth or so when she ran for President, then basically was hidden for 4 years doing kinda nothing.

I think it is more people being excited that the chosen (not elected) candidate is not demented rather than people being genuinely excited about her. When you have Trump on the other hand, who is massively hated by Democrats, and strongly disliked by independents, any non demented Democrat has some chance of winning.

It might be but you don’t know that it is. Sometimes you don’t know whether a candidate has what it takes until they take centre stage. Nobody expected JD Vance to be this bad. And nobody thought Harris would have the ‘it’ factor to reenergize the party and excite voters. Yet here we are, and she hasn’t put a foot wrong but has risen to the occasion. Using her short-lived primaries campaign four years ago to disqualify her seems very shallow.

 

[Raoul]

Not sure what it will take for this idea to die but so far she’s looking like a pretty strong candidate.

This is probably a perceptual illusion given the positive sentiment she received after Biden pulled out. She has largely been given a free ride by the media and has yet to give any substantive interviews outlining her policies, which can be subsequently criticized.

 

[crappycraperson]

Wins over progressives without having to change any policy on Gaza. The fact progressives online are happy about the pick probably means it’s a bad choice for the election.

What was the pick that would have resulted in a change in a policy on Gaza? And why do you think VP is more important for the same than Harris? Even if we believe the narrative that Harris as VP in current admin has been more pro Gaza, has that yielded any influence on Biden wrt his stance?

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

 

[roseguy64]

Since when have you cared about what the numbers say? These were your responses to Biden's poor polling:




This thread is unbelievable sometimes. People making failed prediction after failed prediction and acting like they've got the finger on the pulse of the American electorate.

It's amazing to see TBH

 

[rio's upper lip]

Amazing to risk a presidency over fears that you'll be upstaged by your VP. Should've been Shapiro, Pennsylvania is too important.

 

[Sweet Square]

What was the pick that would have resulted in a change in a policy on Gaza?

Imo there wasn’t a pick which would have changed the policy on Gaza.

And why do you think VP is more important for the same than Harris?

I wouldn’t say it’s more important just that in recent history if progressive dems are celebrating something it tends to end in failure.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

One minor quibble here is that the 2022 election was a worse climate to run in as a Democrat. As far as the House vote goes there was a 6% swing towards Republicans nationally, so if Walz was mirroring Biden's 2020 result in 2022 then that's a marginally better outcome (in my opinion).

 

[Raoul]

Amazing to risk a presidency over fears that you'll be upstaged by your VP. Should've been Shapiro, Pennsylvania is too important.

There was probably a bit of that, but also probably a lot of sentiment that she and Walz were the best personality match. Which wouldn't be a surprise given his temperament.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Ha!!

He'd have tweeted that no matter who got it

 

[roseguy64]

I think that's a mistake here. My preference for Walz isn't so much policy based (even though I align with him more). Shapiro's capable and a good orator, but I don't think he's as persuasive a speaker and interviewee as Walz. There's an authenticity and relatability to Walz that I think plays better with folk than the slick proclamations of yet another well oiled, well rehearsed lawyer.

Just the way I see it of course.

Agreed. Walz seems like an actual person. That's also part of why Kamala is appealing to folks. Especially in comparison to Trump and Vance

 

[roseguy64]

I know, right?

Harris showed courage here. She didn’t let pressure get to her.

Nancy on the pulse again though.

 

[Raoul]

Van will probably be getting a call from the Harris campaign to keep a lid on stuff like this

 

[FortunaUtd]

That's comedy, isn't it?

Unfortunately, no. These people are really that insane.

 

[4bars]

what a weak candidate, she came in midway through an election and turned around every poll before saying a single word

If those polls would be results of the elections, would be a massive loss from Harris. That she is better than Biden, doesn't mean that she is a strong or a non weak candidate. It means that is better than the worse Dem candidate since Reagan landslide elections. With that I am not saying that she is a weak candidate, but these numbers that you post are of a weak candidate that compares to a shit candidate like Biden and worse against a rapist, liar and felon candidate

 

[langster]

Van will probably be getting a call from the Harris campaign to keep a lid on stuff like this

Am I wrong in thinking Van has gotten a lot more controversial in the last couple of years or so? And appears to be shifting further to the right with some of his views and commentary? I'm sure he was far more restrained and diplomatic before he had that melt down when he started crying on live TV that was around the same time he had a massive meltdown on camera too.

 

[Raoul]

Am I wrong in thinking Van has gotten a lot more controversial in the last couple of years or so? And appears to be shifting further to the right with some of his views and commentary? I'm sure he was far more restrained and diplomatic before he had that melt down when he started crying on live TV that was around the same time he had a massive meltdown on camera too.

He's pretty much a centrist Dem with occasional leanings into left wing identity politics (on race issues) and occasional opportunistic liaisons with the right (his project with Jared Kushner being a prime example). On the Jewish/anti-semitism issue, he's trying to play both sides, which is only going to wind up annoying each of the opposing sides.

 

[RedDevil@84]

After what is happening in UK, am I being paranoid in thinking that there is a real possibility of RW lunatics taking to the streets, if Kamala wins the elections? The likes of Musk are already talking civil war and drumming up things.

 

[roseguy64]

Van will probably be getting a call from the Harris campaign to keep a lid on stuff like this

Completely stupid thing for him to do.

 

[roseguy64]

This

 

[Mike Smalling]

After what is happening in UK, am I being paranoid in thinking that there is a real possibility of RW lunatics taking to the streets, if Kamala wins the elections? The likes of Musk are already talking civil war and drumming up things.

Seeing as something like that happened last time Trump lost, I’d say that isn’t paranoid at all.

 

[Raoul]

Good intro. A bit of an Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July vibe.

 

[calodo2003]

Assuming it's election related...

 

[Mike Smalling]

Good intro. A bit of an Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July vibe.

It's quite telling that the Republicans are attacking the Democrats for who they didn't pick, rather than for who they did pick. Walz has a good background and he is likable, so they have to go with the antisemitism crap about the Shapiro snub.

 

[Raoul]

It's quite telling that the Republicans are attacking the Democrats for who they didn't pick, rather than for who they did pick. Walz has a good background and he is likable, so they have to go with the antisemitism crap about the Shapiro snub.

The irony being the Trump people are apparently very relieved it wasn't Shapiro because it keeps PA in play.

 

[Mike Smalling]

The irony being the Trump people are apparently very relieved it wasn't Shapiro because it keeps PA in play.

PA would have been in play no matter what VP was chosen.

 

[Raoul]

PA would have been in play no matter what VP was chosen.

I think so too, but to a lesser extent if Shapiro was on the ticket. I think the collective sigh of relief among Republicans that she didn't select him only reinforces this.