Do you have any of that data?
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Why is Trump attacking Kemp, is he trying to lose Georgia on purpose?
Pro genocide. Pro clemency.
Also apparently ran one of the most incompetent campaigns ever seen.
Their best argument was instantly turned against them once Biden stepped aside. It's amazing.
He's still mad about 2020 where Kemp wouldn't help him cheat on GA election results. Kemp has also been one of the R Governors who haven't paid full fealty to Trump. Very disloyal!
Fetterman has to be one of the strangest politicians ever.
Its simply a continuation of Trump's success against Biden. She's cut into a lot of Trump's lead but still has a few points to go over the next 2+ months.
Even so, they are the #4 rated pollster out of 277 based on their historical accuracy, so their findings shouldn't be glossed over. Harris still has a lot of work to do in swing states and if the election were held today, there's a pretty good chance Trump would win.
How odd, the filibustering bribing drug dealer...
This is a bad poll for Harris, but we also saw better one for her in the past week or so.
Regardless, Harris is not a particularly strong nominee, and we knew that. That’s one reason why we need to be careful with the VP pock.
Regardless, Harris is not a particularly strong nominee, and we knew that. That’s one reason why we need to be careful with the VP pock.
How is that a bad poll for Harris? How is she not a strong nominee?
Its an okay enough poll/estimate, still work to do.
Agree.
Nevada will go blue, the Dems always overperform there.
Prefacing with "What is" is for providing the right question, not when selecting the category. Has this person ever watched Jeopardy?
If the Culinary union endorses Harris, it should be in the bag.
Dork.
Do they not do MRP polling in the states? Or are the states seen as too big for that to work?
1. According to this poll, she is leading only in one swing state (NV), which also happens to be the smallest of these states. That’s. It a good poll for her.
2. As we discussed two weeks ago, Harris is not particularly popular. She is not a candidate who has a 70-80% of winning. Maybe ~ 50%.
Also, from CNN:
“The Poll of Polls includes a CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday that finds no clear leader nationally, with Harris taking 50% and Trump taking 49% among likely voters. That marks an improvement for the Democratic ticket from the final CBS/YouGov poll prior to President Joe Biden’s exit from the race, in which Biden trailed Trump by 5 percentage points. “
So, yes, she’s doing better than Biden, but would it be enough? I don’t know.
All the swing states are within the margin of error, that is a hell of a lot better than the Biden aftermath.
When was the last time a presidential candidate had a 70% - 80% chance to win? I cannot remember.
Just joshing!
Unless something catastrophic happens I guarantee Harris wins WI.
From what I've seen on their site, most of their polls are national level, big picture type questions.
Arguably the most racist out of all the swing-states? I sure hope you are right.
What makes you so sure, btw?
You’re repeating what I said: she’s doing better than Biden.
Obama has a much higher chance than 50%, and so was Clinton.
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia....ity-of-65-7-that-obama-will-win-the-election/
Biden had almost 90% in 2020:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
She has clearly put us back in the game, but let’s not pretend that she’s a strong contender. I hope that you see the distinction.
(All of this is of course ex-ante; we will see what happens).
Biden was at 90% just days before the election, what was he three months out in early August? That figure is a tad disingenuous.
The undeniable groundswell of support makes her a rather strong candidate currently. She will also be having August & early September focused almost entirely on her campaign & how it navigates favorable waters (VP pick, convention, debate v. Trump or an empty chair) so, barring a calamity, there's nothing in the way for her to keep the momentum going.
I pray to God that you’re right.