2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

FFS, this is all just wasting time. He's going to have to drop out because there is no way he can fully convince the dems that he's not too old, because there simply isn't a way to do that. All this is doing is reducing the amount of time and focus we have left on beating Trump in November.
 
VorZakone said:
And what does that mean? Are they reliable without Nate Silver? Should we listen to Nate instead?
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Whatever he was doing to arrive at a number, he owned it. And when he left, he took it with him. He's not the only person with a model out there, so whether or not we should trust 538 now, your guess is as good as mine. I know the divorce wasn't a very happy one, and ABC had been interfering for a while (firing people he had worked with for a long time, for example).

I doubt the aggregate is much affected. It would be when we start seeing EV projections and win chances.

He's still worth listening to for statistical analyses. If you really want he's got a... substack maybe? Somewhere he gets paid, anyway.
 
Jev said:
Yeah, FiveThirtyEight are now having Biden as the slight favourite to win with 271 electoral votes. I wonder whether all this might actually end up working in his favour, with some voters taking pity on him and creating sort of an underdog narrative.
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NGL, Biden fluking out a Trump 2016-style win, would be hilarious.

But i think not, worth nothing GOP has barely spent money in swing-states so far, and are up in nearly all of them regardless.
Meanwhile, donor money for Biden will be drying up, and GOP will probably start spending big next month.
 
KirkDuyt said:
It's not just Biden though? Similarly, how the feck did anyone in the entire US take Trump as a serious presidential candidate when he first ran?
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Do you remember the circus he ran against?

Odious twats like Bush, Cruz, Carson, Rubio, Huckabee, Santorum, Paul. I get disgusted just thinking of these assclowns. There were a couple decent center-right/moderate options like Kasich and Christie but they're still Republicans with beliefs that clash against most of modern day people. It's really no wonder people went for a legit clown to run their circus.
 
Any possibility some brokers in the party saw the potential Biden decay in the coming year and quietly pushed Newsom to a shadow publicity campaign as a potential contingency plan prior to the election?

Yes, building up his profile towards 2028 was certainly in his mind but perhaps knowing that 2024 could happen, I suppose, why not get there and build up some recognition just in case.
 
MrMarcello said:
Do you remember the circus he ran against?

Odious twats like Bush, Cruz, Carson, Rubio, Huckabee, Santorum, Paul. I get disgusted just thinking of these assclowns. There were a couple decent center-right/moderate options like Kasich and Christie but they're still Republicans with beliefs that clash against most of modern day people. It's really no wonder people went for a legit clown to run their circus.
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Is it just me or has this twat been really quiet lately? Had basically forgotten about his ugly mug.
 
SirAF said:
Is it just me or has this twat been really quiet lately? Had basically forgotten about his ugly mug.
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Thank feck. Probably at some resort while his constituents struggle to make ends meet and his children still hating him.

Too bad Huckabee hasn't fecked over yet. He has the absolute worst attempt of a talk show ever.
 
SirAF said:
Is it just me or has this twat been really quiet lately? Had basically forgotten about his ugly mug.
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Well, he will certainly stick around for another 6 years.

Texas gonna Texas, continue to be a disappointment.
 
MrMarcello said:
Do you remember the circus he ran against?

Odious twats like Bush, Cruz, Carson, Rubio, Huckabee, Santorum, Paul. I get disgusted just thinking of these assclowns. There were a couple decent center-right/moderate options like Kasich and Christie but they're still Republicans with beliefs that clash against most of modern day people. It's really no wonder people went for a legit clown to run their circus.
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Haha, Rick Santorum who claimed the elderly carry "please don't kill me" signs in The Netherlands, because our doctors euthanise them in their sleep if they don't.
 
crappycraperson said:
It will be Harris since legally she is the only who can use the cash with Biden Campaign. For any new candidate to generate it from scratch would require Hollywood going all out but even that might not be enough since Wall Street seems to be leaning towards Trump this cycle.
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Cash is not the problem though. A Mike Bloomberg type could easily drop a couple of hundred mill if it mean defeating Trump.

But, I agree that displacing Harris at this point would be hard - because the democrats are entrenched in identity politics and displacing a black woman say for a white man would look bad.
 
Suedesi said:
Cash is not the problem though. A Mike Bloomberg type could easily drop a couple of hundred mill if it mean defeating Trump.

But, I agree that displacing Harris at this point would be hard - because the democrats are entrenched in identity politics and displacing a black woman say for a white man would look bad.
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Which is probably the reason Trump will win
 
Suedesi said:
Cash is not the problem though. A Mike Bloomberg type could easily drop a couple of hundred mill if it mean defeating Trump.

But, I agree that displacing Harris at this point would be hard - because the democrats are entrenched in identity politics and displacing a black woman say for a white man would look bad.
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Its not ideal, but definitely the easiest choice, Harris and a decent VP candidate like Josh Shapiro(dems seems to be struggling with PA now, for some reason), and hope for the best.

If nothing else, might stop the bleeding downballot, at least.
 
Jev said:
Yeah, FiveThirtyEight are now having Biden as the slight favourite to win with 271 electoral votes. I wonder whether all this might actually end up working in his favour, with some voters taking pity on him and creating sort of an underdog narrative.
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Most Americans evidently don't care THAT much about the mental state of their president. Perhaps 24/7 Biden talk from all media outlets is at least exposing some people to his record on the job, which is fairly impeccable as far as the average POTUS goes and doesn't support the narrative he is too old for it, for now at least.

I also wonder how well polls are factoring in the shy women's vote. I expect there's a not immaterial number of wives and girlfriends out there in the swing states afraid to tell their fella's that they are voting blue.
 
Simbo said:
Most Americans evidently don't care THAT much about the mental state of their president. Perhaps 24/7 Biden talk from all media outlets is at least exposing some people to his record on the job, which is fairly impeccable as far as the average POTUS goes and doesn't support the narrative he is too old for it, for now at least.

I also wonder how well polls are factoring in the shy women's vote. I expect there's a not immaterial number of wives and girlfriends out there in the swing states afraid to tell their fella's that they are voting blue.
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There is a reasonable argument to be made that Biden can still get Michigan and Wisconsin, with a bit of overpermance, the problem is Pennsylvania, i mean, its possible Biden overperforms by 4 point there and wins the electoral college, but i wouldn't count on it.

Pennsylvania is still in margin of error, but barely, and Biden can't win without it.
 
Biden currently doing a "rally" right now in Michigan. Biggest story to come out is all the senior Michigan politicians who have refused to attend the rally. Whitmer is apparently "too busy" to attend.
 
Fergies Gum said:
Biden currently doing a "rally" right now in Michigan. Biggest story to come out is all the senior Michigan politicians who have refused to attend the rally. Whitmer is apparently "too busy" to attend.
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He seems quite normal again. I’m sure a gaff will happen at some point and that will be the story.
 
Raoul said:
He seems quite normal again. I’m sure a gaff will happen at some point and that will be the story.
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His doctors have definitely upped his dosage today. This is the most boisterous crowd he has had for a long time and sadly it will embolden him to stay in the race.
 
This normalization of what's supposed to be a clusterfeck is amazing from both camps

And the amount of shits the whole presidential team covering up is mind boggling. Someone is force feeding him to sign document on daily basis. God forbid someone actually asked him for quick decision and he yells bomb England instead of Sudan

His mental capacity is already gone. The whole DNC is complicit in this. There's no way anyone who's meeting him face to face doesnt know about this
 
nimic said:
This is why he has to pull out. It doesn't matter what else he does from now on. Whenever there's a gaffe, that'll be the story. And we all know he's always been prone to gaffes.
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While his rapist opponent gaffes and lies through every speech hes ever made and through this whole campaign, and is also a recently convicted criminal with multiple cases to come.
His business was also found guilty of mass financial fraud, in time his campaign will also show massive fraud. You could write a 400 page book in bulletpoint on every shitty and illegal thing he's done. Let's not forget about January the 6th which a few posters in these threads have not mentioned fecking once. Smearing their feces on the walls screaming about tyranny when they can't even spell the word. Incel imbeciles.
But a bad campaigner who was going to definitely start (hypothetical) WW3 with Russia and a really old dude who has gaffed his whole fecking life more so now but got shit done seems to be the biggest danger to life on this planet. They don't like Trump but....
The decision in 2016 was easy, not ideal but easy. Same for 2020. The actions of this rouge SC prove that not every choice when voting is perfect but the consequences are far bigger than you could imagine, especially if you are ill informed or just a complete wanker.
A clear head and a sensible vote would be the adult thing to do building up to an almighty head to head in 2028 between both parties. I don't give a feck who it is as long as it's the end of this exhausting Biden, Trump, Clinton rubbish disguising the dumpster fire that is the flip every two years House and a 48-52 old ass Senate.
The Supreme Court is unfortunately lost unless enough brave people are elected to correct this bought and paid for religious assault on common sense
Two shitty political parties and two shitty candidates is all we have right now unless the Dems grow a pair and say enough is enough. Which is really what the Republicans should have done 4 years ago.
 
Simbo said:
Most Americans evidently don't care THAT much about the mental state of their president. Perhaps 24/7 Biden talk from all media outlets is at least exposing some people to his record on the job, which is fairly impeccable as far as the average POTUS goes and doesn't support the narrative he is too old for it, for now at least.
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Voters are even more likely to say he's too old now.
 
Jev said:
Given what Trump has pledged to do, I don’t think it’s wrong to call him a threat to democracy. The problem is the Dems are undermining that narrative by sticking with a losing ticket out of fear or loyalty.
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It's a long-running issue with Democrats. Letting 'electoral' politics get in the way of politics. Too many examples to count.
 
gfactor86 said:
Not buying that. You saw her after the debate. "We're so proud Joe, you answered all the questions!". Like he is some child.

A supportive wife would tell him that he had a good innings but is no longer fit for office and to retire gracefully.
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Mate your partner is meant to be supportive of you and try to cheer you up if something doesn't go your way.

I would argue that Biden's wife should be the one person who continues to tell him that he can do it, and if he wants to continue he should try to. It's not your partner's duty to think about the greater good.
 
Sky1981 said:
This normalization of what's supposed to be a clusterfeck is amazing from both camps

And the amount of shits the whole presidential team covering up is mind boggling. Someone is force feeding him to sign document on daily basis. God forbid someone actually asked him for quick decision and he yells bomb England instead of Sudan

His mental capacity is already gone. The whole DNC is complicit in this. There's no way anyone who's meeting him face to face doesnt know about this
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Agree with all of this.

The DNC are complicit for this shit show. They have been gaslighting anyone who dared to call out the prospect of Biden being too old and impaired to run for Presidency again.

Those people were labelled conspiracy theorists and right wing loons. But all along the Emporer has been swimming naked and now the truth is out there.

Now they need to act fast if they are to stand any chance of stopping Trump. I am not sure why Kamala has not invoked the 25th amendment. The situation is untenable for Biden.
 
gfactor86 said:
Agree with all of this.

The DNC are complicit for this shit show. They have been gaslighting anyone who dared to call out the prospect of Biden being too old and impaired to run for Presidency again.

Those people were labelled conspiracy theorists and right wing loons. But all along the Emporer has been swimming naked and now the truth is out there.

Now they need to act fast if they are to stand any chance of stopping Trump. I am not sure why Kamala has not invoked the 25th amendment. The situation is untenable for Biden.
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I think a large part of the problem is also that a contingent of democrat voters actually cares whether their candidate has some sort of semblance of competence, whereas the overwhelming majority of republicans are basically a cult. Trump has been onchorently insane since his inauguration.
 
Cloud7 said:
Mate your partner is meant to be supportive of you and try to cheer you up if something doesn't go your way.

I would argue that Biden's wife should be the one person who continues to tell him that he can do it, and if he wants to continue he should try to. It's not your partner's duty to think about the greater good.
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Supporting what a loved one wants to do despite being clearly uncapable, is not what a partner is. A partner has to give you the hard truths even if it hurts. And with that, i am not saying that jill doesnt do it inaide doors. Her job as a lofe partner is support him in public. But if my partner would be like Biden, i would not say "honey, you can do whatever you want, ill be there for you" i would say "I dont think is the right think to do, but ill be there for you"
 
Then again, dems don't really believe project 2025 is really all that bad anyway, so whatever.
 
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