2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

sugar_kane said:
Okay almost no chance is perhaps a rather sizeable exaggeration.

Would you disagree though that if the Democrats act now and get someone credible in to replace Biden it gives them a far better chance of winning? Amounting to going from having almost no chance to having a strong chance.
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Also, it annoys me how everybody act as if Trump is some super strong candidate, he is not.

He is still not popular at all, another candidate has a reasonable chance.
 
VorZakone said:
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In 1961, the Central Intelligence Agency tried to use Castro's love of ice cream against him. Every day at the time, Castro ordered a chocolate milkshake from the Havana Libre Hotel lunch counter. Richard Bissell Jr., the CIA deputy director for plans, offered Sam Giancana and Santo Trafficante, Jr., the heads of the Chicago and Tampa crime families, $150,000 in order to assassinate Castro.

They gave a pill of botulinum toxin to a waiter with the goal of putting it in Castro's chocolate milkshake, but the pill froze to the side of the hotel's freezer and broke.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidel_Castro_and_dairy
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Even though the polls don't really show it, Biden on the top of the ticket WILL make downballot dems suffer too.

If they don't have the courage to stand up to him, swing-state dems deserve to go down with the ship.
 
sugar_kane said:
Okay almost no chance is perhaps a rather sizeable exaggeration.

Would you disagree though that if the Democrats act now and get someone credible in to replace Biden it gives them a far better chance of winning? Amounting to going from having almost no chance to having a strong chance.
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I think it gives them a better chance, but maybe not a far better chance. And certainly not a better chance than Trump.

The upside is that voters may perceive the Democrats as the party willing to listen and adjust their approach, while the Republicans stick with their maniac. But people tend to overestimate the chances of a hypothetical candidate, because all their flaws haven't been exposed yet.
 
Morty_ said:
Even though the polls don't really show it, Biden on the top of the ticket WILL make downballot dems suffer too.

If they don't have the courage to stand up to him, swing-state dems deserve to go down with the ship.
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That much is obvious. Conversely, if Dems do turn out to vote on specific issues (abortion always springs to mind), then we may see a situation where Dems actually outperform expectations like they did in 2022, which would help their Presidential nominee. Another thing that could help Dems is R voters feeling a bit smug about winning because of Biden's collapse, and in the process, turning out in lesser numbers.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I think it gives them a better chance, but maybe not a far better chance. And certainly not a better chance than Trump.

The upside is that voters may perceive the Democrats as the party willing to listen and adjust their approach, while the Republicans stick with their maniac. But people tend to overestimate the chances of a hypothetical candidate, because all their flaws haven't been exposed yet.
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This argument isn't as sound as you think it is, Biden already has max name recognition, so how is he going to turn things around when almost everybody dislikes him?

Some other candidate that isn't Biden, is very, very likely not going to have a whopping -20 approval rating, there are basically only upsides getting rid of Biden, and no downsides having him replaced.
 
Raoul said:
That much is obvious. Conversely, if Dems do turn out to vote on specific issues (abortion always springs to mind), then we may see a situation where Dems actually outperform expectations like they did in 2022, which would help their Presidential nominee. Another thing that could help Dems is R voters feeling a bit smug about winning because of Biden's collapse, and in the process, turning out in lesser numbers.
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Look, i'm a big believer in dems outperforming polling too, but only to an extent.

If Biden is down 2-3 in the national average, and you have polling showing states like NH, Virginia and NM are now in play, it will take a minor miracle for him to win this race.
 
Morty_ said:
This argument isn't as sound as you think it is, Biden already has max name recognition, so how is he going to turn things around when almost everybody dislikes him? Can turn it right back into the other direction, everybody already knows all there is to know about Biden, so its not salvagable.

Some other candidate that isn't Biden, is very, very likely not going to have a whopping -20 approval rating, there are basically only upsides getting rid of Biden, and no downsides having him replaced.
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It seems like you are arguing against a point I haven't made. I don't think Biden can salvage this, and I think there are more upsides to replacing him than downsides. I'm just saying that his potential replacement won't dance his/her way to a General Election win. In fact I think they'd lose.
 
VorZakone said:
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Guy saw the morning consult poll, the only poll that showed a somewhat ok result for him in recent couple of weeks, and decided to dig in based on that, my theory anyway.

They will probably quote +5 in Michigan pretty soon.
 
Both John Fetterman and Ritchie Torres, who aren't just pro-Israel but have made it the core of their politics, are heavily backing Biden, which may indicate what AIPAC/Bibi wants?
Biden is a lapdog, and since he's more likely to lose, Trump is an even better lapdog... while a more pragmatic, less principled Democrat might care a little more about optics.
 
berbatrick said:
Both John Fetterman and Ritchie Torres, who aren't just pro-Israel but have made it the core of their politics, are heavily backing Biden, which may indicate what AIPAC/Bibi wants?
Biden is a lapdog, and since he's more likely to lose, Trump is an even better lapdog... while a more pragmatic, less principled Democrat might care a little more about optics.
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The two aren't related. Fetterman and Torres are clearly pro-Israel for their own reasons, and not because AIPAC or Netanyahu are sock puppetting them.
 
berbatrick said:
Both John Fetterman and Ritchie Torres, who aren't just pro-Israel but have made it the core of their politics, are heavily backing Biden, which may indicate what AIPAC/Bibi wants?
Biden is a lapdog, and since he's more likely to lose, Trump is an even better lapdog... while a more pragmatic, less principled Democrat might care a little more about optics.
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Netanyahu would love it if Biden stays in. Then he has unconditional support from the White House no matter who wins.
 
Raoul said:
The two aren't related. Fetterman and Torres are clearly pro-Israel for their own reasons, and not because AIPAC or Netanyahu are sock puppetting them.
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I have no idea about Ritchie, but this isn't the case with Fetterman. He initially made quite vague statements about Israel, then he met AIPAC, and the rest is a courtship story for the ages: brain damaged ogre and genocidal state taking romantic strolls together.
Either way, my point isn't about their internal motivations when they first articulated their position, it's now. Right now, both meet regularly with Israel lobbyists, and get a lot of money from them too. Both coming out on one side of this possibly suggests this is what Israel wants.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Netanyahu would love it if Biden stays in. Then he has unconditional support from the White House no matter who wins.
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Biden or Trump will do nicely for the Israelis. In Biden, at least they are getting more stability with some parameters. Whereas with Trump they would get wider support for just about anything, but with less stability.
 
Raoul said:
Biden or Trump will do nicely for the Israelis. In Biden, at least they are getting more stability with some parameters. Whereas with Trump they would get wider support for just about anything, but with less stability.
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Either one will support Israel, that much is obvious.

So i'll take the one who at least will for sure support Ukraine, the lesser evil, because it's very much up in the air if Trump will or not.

I hope NATO here in Europe are ready to take the lead, but I'm not counting on it, the US is an invaluable partner.
 
Morty_ said:
Either one will support Israel, that much is obvious.

So i'll take the one who at least will for sure support Ukraine, the lesser evil, because it's very much up in the air if Trump will or not.

I hope NATO here in Europe are ready to take the lead, but I'm not counting on it, the US is an invaluable partner.
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The UK donated some bullets yesterday. Probably won't be enough.
 
Wasn't Fetterman some sort of cool twitter shitposting dem hero until not long ago, or am I confusing him with someone else?
 
KirkDuyt said:
Wasn't Fetterman some sort of cool twitter shitposting dem hero until not long ago, or am I confusing him with someone else?
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No he's the one. He got the reputation for being a cool dude, because he wears shorts and hoodies, and took the piss out of his opponent Dr. Oz in the senate election. Now many progressives see him as abandoning them and their platform, after they helped him get elected.

There's a few narratives around him going around now. Some say his stroke changed his personality and values (he has commented something along those lines himself), others that AIPAC being a major donor of his has lead to his extreme support of Israel. You can also find comments that say he was always very abrasive and kind of an asshole - it's just that he is now turning those traits on progressive rather than his Republican adversaries.
 
Frosty said:
Well America, it was fun.
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Prevent WW3 is something we can all get behind.

The other bolded ones are also noteworthy.

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1. Seal the border

2. Carry out largest deportation op in US history

3. End inflation

4. Make US dominant energy producer

5. Stop outsourcing manufacturing

6. Large tax cuts for workers, no tax on tips

7. Defend the Constitution and fundamental freedoms

8. Prevent WW3

9. End weaponization of gov't

10. Stop migrant crime epidemic

11. Rebuild US cities, make them safe, clean again

12. Strengthen/modernize military

13. Keep US $$ as reserve currency

14. Protect SS and Medicare

15. Cancel EV mandate

16. Cut funding for schools pushing gender ideology

17. Keep men out of women's sports

18. Deport pro-Hamas radicals, especially from colleges

19. Secure elections: voter ID, paper ballots, proof of citizenship

20. Unite our country by bringing it to record levels of success


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Raoul said:
Prevent WW3 is something we can all get behind.

The other bolded ones are also noteworthy.

-----------------------

1. Seal the border

2. Carry out largest deportation op in US history

3. End inflation

4. Make US dominant energy producer

5. Stop outsourcing manufacturing

6. Large tax cuts for workers, no tax on tips

7. Defend the Constitution and fundamental freedoms

8. Prevent WW3

9. End weaponization of gov't

10. Stop migrant crime epidemic

11. Rebuild US cities, make them safe, clean again

12. Strengthen/modernize military

13. Keep US $$ as reserve currency

14. Protect SS and Medicare

15. Cancel EV mandate

16. Cut funding for schools pushing gender ideology

17. Keep men out of women's sports

18. Deport pro-Hamas radicals, especially from colleges

19. Secure elections: voter ID, paper ballots, proof of citizenship

20. Unite our country by bringing it to record levels of success


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I suspect Trump and the Rs may have a different interpretation of Prevent WW3 to Europe.

Erm, also, end inflation?
 
Frosty said:
I suspect Trump and the Rs may have a different interpretation of Prevent WW3 to Europe.

Erm, also, end inflation?
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Cancelling the EV mandate is also quite comical. Its like they think EVs will go away if they stop allowing incentives for people to buy them.
 
KirkDuyt said:
Wasn't Fetterman some sort of cool twitter shitposting dem hero until not long ago, or am I confusing him with someone else?
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Not sure if he was any of those. He was basically the Lt Gov of PA who walked around in hoodies, which created an impression he was somewhat of a working class candidate of the people. How he has governed in the senate is another issue.
 
VorZakone said:
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It's like they want to lose, but Dems won't give them the satisfaction.

Can't Dems campaign on something extremely simple so that even their candidate can remember? Out of the blue: Growth. Health. Choice. There you go, 3 extremely simple concepts that put together will appeal to their entire electorate. How much money are the people in charge of the campaign getting paid?
 
Raoul said:
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If true, I know I certainly need multiple visits by a parkinsons expert to confirm I don't show any signs of the disease.

It's a disease which famously is light on visual signs.
 
africanspur said:
If true, I know I certainly need multiple visits by a parkinsons expert to confirm I don't show any signs of the disease.

It's a disease which famously is light on visual signs.
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Hard to say if he's got it or not, but the optics of a Parkinsons expert visiting the WH eight times, isn't good, and will prolong the narrative at a time when the Dems are desperately trying to change it.
 
Raoul said:
Hard to say if he's got it or not, but the optics of a Parkinsons expert visiting the WH eight times, isn't good, and will prolong the narrative at a time when the Dems are desperately trying to change it.
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A neurologist does not need 8 visits to figure out someone doesn't have PD.
 
The neurologist told Biden he had Parkinson’s on the first visit but he kept forgetting and calling the guy to come back.
 
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