2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Mike Smalling said:
It's too early, yes, but isn't it also the first polls he has won in a long time?

With the somewhat positive state of the union, Trump coming more into focus towards November, and the difference in ad buys starting to take effect, I think we could realistically see a noticeable shift in the polls over the next 3-4 months.
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No, Biden has won several polls over Trump, including ones just before the debates as well. Trump is ahead by a small margin in about 80% of the other polls.
 
nimic said:
I think it's pretty wild looking at two polls where he leads by 1% when the margin of error is double that and call it a "momentum shift". Seems like wishful thinking.
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He has been losing in pretty much every poll so far, in some by a few points, so leading two polls albeit by a single point is quite good news.
 
Revan said:
He has been losing in pretty much every poll so far, in some by a few points, so leading two polls albeit by a single point is quite good news.
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Definitely good news, though with the margin of error being larger than the difference, we can't really say for sure that he's actually leading. But it's better than the other way around.
 
The last round of polls from battleground states are also quite bad for Biden, for the record.
Down in PA by 4, down in Michigan by 3, Arizona by 4.

I do find it worrying, when state of the union couldn't even give Biden a temporary buff, maybe this is how its going to be throughout, and the way Biden wins is overperforming by 4-5 points.

Very shaky grounds.
 
Morty_ said:
The last round of polls from battleground states are also quite bad for Biden, for the record.
Down in PA by 4, down in Michigan by 3, Arizona by 4.

I do find it worrying, when state of the union couldn't even give Biden a temporary buff, maybe this is how its going to be throughout, and the way Biden wins is overperforming by 4-5 points.

Very shaky grounds.
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If you listen to experts the state of the union has never had any impact of polls, and is watched by less than 10 percent of the electorate: largely those already engaged and having made up their mind.

I'm less worried about that, and more encouraged that we're starting to see some of the policies and positions emerging. As we've been saying, Biden has good policies and needs to get the electorate aware.

Trump has no policies, and is currently furiously trying to pretend he didn't say last week he'd cut Medicare and medicaid.
 
Well, if people don't even watch state of the union, when exactly are they going to learn that Biden isn't nearly as bad cognitively, as right-wing media portrays him to be?

Perception matters, it actually doesn't matter that Biden is mentally fit, if people don't see or hear it.
 
Beachryan said:
If you listen to experts the state of the union has never had any impact of polls, and is watched by less than 10 percent of the electorate: largely those already engaged and having made up their mind.

I'm less worried about that, and more encouraged that we're starting to see some of the policies and positions emerging. As we've been saying, Biden has good policies and needs to get the electorate aware.

Trump has no policies, and is currently furiously trying to pretend he didn't say last week he'd cut Medicare and medicaid.
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Yeah, it’s more about changing the media narrative, which can slowly improve the general perception of him. Even the right wing media shifted from “he can barely stay awake” to calling him “Jacked-up Joe”.
 
Where’s the smart money in this then? Is trump actually going to win?
 
Morty_ said:
Looks like it, despite the fact it makes no sense at all.
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I don’t think it looks like it at all. He has a very motivated base of not enough people for a majority, but next to nothing behind that.
 
surely Americans are not that daft. It would be absolute mayhem if he wins again.
 
racetothewh.com has dems at 45% chance of holding the senate, which seems kind of excessive, but i'll take it.
 
Morty_ said:
racetothewh.com has dems at 45% chance of holding the senate, which seems kind of excessive, but i'll take it.
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Not sure how they conclude that when the Senate is 50/50 now and Manchin and Ben Cardin are not running again. WV is heavily Republican so that alone would result in a GOP pick up. Maryland, despite being safe Dem, may also go GOP since Larry Hogan is running. And that's before we even get to the likes of AZ, NV, OH, MT, or WI.

Ultimately, many of these races will get decided based on GOTV and who actually ends up voting.
 
Raoul said:
Not sure how they conclude that when the Senate is 50/50 now and Manchin and Ben Cardin are not running again. WV is heavily Republican so that alone would result in a GOP pick up. Maryland, despite being safe Dem, may also go GOP since Larry Hogan is running. And that's before we even get to the likes of AZ, NV, OH, MT, or WI.

Ultimately, many of these races will get decided based on GOTV and who actually ends up voting.
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The senate is 51 one now, Manchin is out next year, the problem is they say they take into account recent polling, but that same polling also bad for Biden, now, it is possible for dems to hold the senate, but only if they also have the white house.

Hogan is interesting, but state should be way too blue for him get elected to senate, most other senate races should be okay, except Montana and Ohio, we will find out more about Ohio soon though, primaries in a few days.
 
Morty_ said:
The senate is 51 one now, Manchin is out next year, the problem is they say they take into account recent polling, but that same polling also bad for Biden, now, it is possible for dems to hold the senate, but only if they also have the white house.

Hogan is interesting, but state should be way too blue for him get elected to senate, most other senate races should be okay, except Montana and Ohio, we will find out more about Ohio soon though, primaries in a few days.
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The Dems only have 48 plus 3 independents, and with Sinema leaving, AZ is completely up for grabs (despite the fact that Gallego is doing well in the polls). I think Hogan has a great chance of winning that seat. Certainly if he can win Governor then he can win a Senate seat. I think the Dems have a great chance of winning the House, but not a very good chance of retaining the Senate.
 
Raoul said:
The Dems only have 48 plus 3 independents, and with Sinema leaving, AZ is completely up for grabs (despite the fact that Gallego is doing well in the polls). I think Hogan has a great chance of winning that seat. Certainly if he can win Governor then he can win a Senate seat. I think the Dems have a great chance of winning the House, but not a very good chance of retaining the Senate.
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Thats not really how this works, while he is the strongest republican candidate for the state, governor and senate elections are quite different, just ask Bredesen in Tennessee, or Bullock in Montana, they kinda got wiped out, despite being popular governors, many other examples of this.

Hogan winning a senate seat in Maryland, one of the bluest states in the US, would defy all trends.

I don't think dems have a very good chance of holding the senate either, agreed there.
 
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I believe that Hogan will do well here in Maryland relative to other republicans, but he will likely lose. There will be a big showing of Dems to hold this seat. I’m also not sure if the red parts of the State will show up in big numbers for Hogan as he was typically critical of Trump. He needs many democrats or lean democrats to vote for him to win. That’s going to be difficult.
 
Morty_ said:
Thats not really how this works...
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Its actually not unusual. Tester is a Senator in a very red state, as is Manchin. Georgia, which is still pretty red despite Biden barely winning it, happens to have two Dem Senators. Therefore its entirely plausible that Hogan could win, especially as he has already proven he is capable of winning statewide.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
I believe that Hogan will do well here in Maryland relative to other republicans, but he will likely lose. There will be a big showing of Dems to hold this seat. I’m also not sure if the red parts of the State will show up in big numbers for Hogan as he was typically critical of Trump. He needs many democrats or lean democrats to vote for him to win. That’s going to be difficult.
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If he loses it will be because voter turn out for Biden will be unusually high, which isn't outside the realm of possibility. On the other hand, his age may suppress turnout, even with Trump as the alternative.
 
Luckily I’m not American. If Trump wins I would either move far away from America or just leave the World!

In the end, US is just a 3rd world country with guns.
 
Raoul said:
If he loses it will be because voter turn out for Biden will be unusually high, which isn't outside the realm of possibility. On the other hand, his age may suppress turnout, even with Trump as the alternative.
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Possible.

For me, Biden winning plus flipping the House would be great. The Senate map is tough even without Maryland (and I still believe that this seat will remain in the hands of the Dems). Democrats have shown their ability to perform against the odds.
 
the_cliff said:


Pretty idiotic thing to say, even by Trumps standards.
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Even with context behind what he said, Trumpists will definitely spin those and most likely prepare to create more political violence.

If those donkeys want to try their luck again on January 6 of 2025 in the event that Trump has lost another election, I hope the response from all branches of authority will be more muscular than in 2021.
 
calodo2003 said:
There won't be anything close to a bloodbath. The majority of mensas who would actually take up arms is already incarcerated,
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I don't doubt that. It's just an absolute idiotic thing to say at a public rally. Especially if you're trying to win new voters just before a major election and when you're claiming the media is treating you unfairly and has an agenda against you.
 
Asger said:
Luckily I’m not American. If Trump wins I would either move far away from America or just leave the World!

In the end, US is just a 3rd world country with guns.
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Leaving the world would be appear the logical thing to do.
 
Beachryan said:
But Biden is old!
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I mean, let’s forget all the bad things about Trump and just talk about the age of Biden. Could you imagine Biden facing 91 counts in four different jurisdictions?!!! Or Hillary Clinton?!!

From Day 1 of his candidacy in 2015, Trump has been graded on a curve.
 
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