2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

[Iker Quesadillas]

The black vote is very important also in WI, MI and PA. The democrat needs a strong support by black voters to win. It’s not a sufficient condition, but it may be a necessary one.

Sure.

But the 'increased share of the black vote relative to 2020' (the tweet Raoul was responding to) does not show strong support. Turnout in 2020 was four times what it was this time. 2020 was a competitive primary; this isn't. It's just not comparable.

 

[Hamnat]

Sure.

But the 'increased share of the black vote relative to 2020' (the tweet Raoul was responding to) does not show strong support. Turnout in 2020 was four times what it was this time. 2020 was a competitive primary; this isn't. It's just not comparable.

But it is better than a random sample poll that keeps getting posted as Doomsday. It is actual people going out to vote. If actual voting data doesn't matter, polls of what people might do certainly don't matter.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

It is not better than a poll in this particular case, no.

 

[Morty_]

It is not better than a poll in this particular case, no.

Let me ask you though, do you really believe in polls showing Trump crushing it with independents or winning with young voters?

I think these numbers are flawed, no election results backs this up, be it special election, midterms, or primary results.

 

[George Owen]

They are also the most prepared to surf through these disinformation and are overwhelmingly more affected by the decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade, which Trump attributes to himself.

The youth elected Milei in Argentina.

 

[Raoul]

Let me ask you though, do you really believe in polls showing Trump crushing it with independents or winning with young voters?

I think these numbers are flawed, no election results backs this up, be it special election, midterms, or primary results.

A lot of these early numbers are going to change over time as voters actually grapple with the reality of whether they actually want to reelect Trump. Independents in particular, have left Trump since the insurrection, and he can't win the Presidency without them since the Republican base only make up about 25-28% of the overall voter population.

 

[Kinsella]

Muslims

Best ignored, I say!!!

Has this ‘cartoonist/satirist’ never heard of abstaining?

 

[Morty_]

A lot of these early numbers are going to change over time as voters actually grapple with the reality of whether they actually want to reelect Trump. Independents in particular, have left Trump since the insurrection, and he can't win the Presidency without them since the Republican base only make up about 25-28% of the overall voter population.

I'm not sure polling numbers will change much, its been about 4 months of largely awful polls for dems, which is a fairly large period of time already.

In addition, there is nothing definitive that says polling has to get more accurate once you get close to the election, the midterm polling got increasingly worse as they approached.

Not that they didn't know the polling was trash either, Nate Silver's response was basically that dems should just flood the statistics with left-leaning polls to cancel it out all the right-leaning ones.

Let see if the experts has learned a lesson from that, i doubt it though.

 

[The United]

I'm not sure polling numbers will change much, its been about 4 months of largely awful polls for dems, which is a fairly large period of time already.

In addition, there is nothing definitive that says polling has to get more accurate once you get close to the election, the midterm polling got increasingly worse as they approached.

Not that they didn't know the polling was trash either, Nate Silver's response was basically that dems should just flood the statistics with left-leaning polls to cancel it out all the right-leaning ones.

Let see if the experts has learned a lesson from that, i doubt it though.

Well, fear can be a good motivation for the Democrats and Dem-leaning Indies to come out and vote, which is what is needed. In that sense, they would just leave it as it is for now until they felt the situation was different. The past few elections pretty much indicated that it worked.

 

[Raoul]

I'm not sure polling numbers will change much, its been about 4 months of largely awful polls for dems, which is a fairly large period of time already.

In addition, there is nothing definitive that says polling has to get more accurate once you get close to the election, the midterm polling got increasingly worse as they approached.

Not that they didn't know the polling was trash either, Nate Silver's response was basically that dems should just flood the statistics with left-leaning polls to cancel it out all the right-leaning ones.

Let see if the experts has learned a lesson from that, i doubt it though.

That's because a lot of people aren't taking the the election seriously yet, mainly because they're too busy with life. They don't fully get dialed into the election mindset until summer time when the conventions happen and the gravity of their political choices becomes palpable.

Here's a sample of polling done nearly 4 years ago this month.

https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/916...er-michael-bloomberg-powers-into-second-place

Sanders well ahead in the Dem nomination race, with Bloomberg ahead of Biden.

For the Dems, it didn't change until South Carolina where Biden made his move. Given all the trials Trump is going through, there's a high likelihood the numbers will be in flux until the election.

 

[NotThatSoph]

But it is better than a random sample poll that keeps getting posted as Doomsday. It is actual people going out to vote. If actual voting data doesn't matter, polls of what people might do certainly don't matter.

It's absolutely not better. This is South Carolina, in the 2016 Republican primary Trump got 32 % of the vote, while in 2020 they didn't even have a primary. Yet, even with incumbent advantage he was obviously a weaker candidate in 2020. Now, in 2024, he's polling at well above 50 %, and this also doesn't mean that he's a stronger candidate than in 2016.

What these results show is that Biden has a stronger position as the Democrat nominee than he did in 2020, which is completely expected because he's the sitting president. If he didn't score stronger than he did in a more competive primary, that would indicate something extraordinary and likely catastrophic. This result tells us close to nothing about the general election.

 

[calodo2003]

 

[4bars]

Let me ask you though, do you really believe in polls showing Trump crushing it with independents or winning with young voters?

I think these numbers are flawed, no election results backs this up, be it special election, midterms, or primary results.

I think you are completely right on this. It doesn't make sense. But just to be the devils advocate. Could it be that maybe young people that voted democrats and independents in the last elections are disillusioned with Biden specially lately with the age decline perception and maybe Israel and is not that they will vote for Trump but either for Biden? and the ones that voted for trump with keep voting Trump because...they are still being nuts?

I think vote suppression will be massive these elections

 

[Beachryan]

The last two podcasts on the Ezra Klein show have been good on this. The first was a guy basically saying don't look at polls, look at results - where the dems have outperformed expectations (and polls) in every election since 2020. The second was the opposite - a guy arguing that the dems should have an insurmountable advantage with the growth of minorities, share of women voters and other demo shifts, but don't because in seeking the higher-educated they lost the working-class. The former obviously confident of victory in November, the latter very much not.

I think what most everyone can agree on is that Biden's team have done a really poor job to date of combating the negative perception of him that exists in the media. Which is clearly someone's job, and they've been terrible at it.

 

[Beachryan]

IMO the election will come down to 2 issues, possibly 3:
1. Dems ability to continue to leverage the Dobbs decision, and highlight Trumps (gleefully admitted) role in it. It's crucial to not understate how batsh*t crazy and against the majority opinion what the SC did was, and how angry it rightly has voters. 70% of Americans think abortion should be legal, and it's been banned in states because, essentially of the acts (and lies) of 2 judges and a President.

2. Donny's legal fun. While the cases to date have been somewhat esoteric (lying on financial statements, defamation) the upcoming ones should be far more damaging to a candidate. There can be almost no doubt on the documents verdict, though another Trump appointee is holding things up. Jack Smith's case will be brutal in keeping Jan 6th forefront in the news. And I still don't see how voters can hear Trump soliciting voter fraud in Georgia and not recall it's really not a witch-hunt when we hear him doing the witch bits. Plus, he's almost 80 and going to be spending huge swathes of his time travelling to and from courtrooms - this will impact his ability to campaign. I think the more Trump is back in the daily news cycle and tied to the above crimes, as well as undoubtedly saying more insane sh*t like he's been doing for the past 3 months (seriously, go listen to some of the nonsense) it'll remind independents of who he really is, not the rose-coloured pre-covid economy stuff he's trying to peddle.

3. If Biden falls/gets ill/dies. Obviously.

 

[Giggsyking]

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

Let me ask you though, do you really believe in polls showing Trump crushing it with independents or winning with young voters?

No, but crosstabs have large margins of error, since the samples are small. It doesn't mean the entirety of the poll is wrong.

Anyone passionately arguing that a poll is wrong because its sample has “too many [xx]” or “too many of this group are voting for [xx]” is probably wrong. As you dig into a survey’s crosstabs — looking at college-educated white men, for example, or Hispanics 65 years or older — you’re sacrificing sample size for specificity. The margins of error of subsamples can get huge. Further, most pollsters weight their results by demographics (such as age and race) and not attitudes (like party identification).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/13-tips-for-reading-general-election-polls-like-a-pro/

I think these numbers are flawed, no election results backs this up, be it special election, midterms, or primary results.

The explanation I've seen is that Biden is stronger with the more engaged voters that show up in midterms/special elections than with general election voters. It may be true, it may not be true.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

I think you are completely right on this. It doesn't make sense. But just to be the devils advocate. Could it be that maybe young people that voted democrats and independents in the last elections are disillusioned with Biden specially lately with the age decline perception and maybe Israel and is not that they will vote for Trump but either for Biden? and the ones that voted for trump with keep voting Trump because...they are still being nuts?

According to NBC's exit polls, in 2020 election Biden had 65% support of the 18-24 demographic, 54% of the 25-29 demographic and 51% of the 30-39 demographic. Trump had 31%, 43%, and 46% in those demographics. If you average them out you get 57% Biden, 40% Trump.

NBC's recent poll had Trump at 46% and Biden at 42% with the 18-35 demographic group. Those numbers make sense to me if you account for margin of error. Biden would still be winning young voters, but by a smaller margin.

 

[Beachryan]

According to NBC's exit polls, in 2020 election Biden had 65% support of the 18-24 demographic, 54% of the 25-29 demographic and 51% of the 30-39 demographic. Trump had 31%, 43%, and 46% in those demographics. If you average them out you get 57% Biden, 40% Trump.

NBC's recent poll had Trump at 46% and Biden at 42% with the 18-35 demographic group. Those numbers make sense to me if you account for margin of error. Biden would still be winning young voters, but by a smaller margin.

I obviously hope it's not the case, but I would love to understand what it is about Trump that is attracting new, young voters. Outside of I guess new MAGA 'kids'.

 

[Raoul]

IMO the election will come down to 2 issues, possibly 3:
1. Dems ability to continue to leverage the Dobbs decision, and highlight Trumps (gleefully admitted) role in it. It's crucial to not understate how batsh*t crazy and against the majority opinion what the SC did was, and how angry it rightly has voters. 70% of Americans think abortion should be legal, and it's been banned in states because, essentially of the acts (and lies) of 2 judges and a President.

2. Donny's legal fun. While the cases to date have been somewhat esoteric (lying on financial statements, defamation) the upcoming ones should be far more damaging to a candidate. There can be almost no doubt on the documents verdict, though another Trump appointee is holding things up. Jack Smith's case will be brutal in keeping Jan 6th forefront in the news. And I still don't see how voters can hear Trump soliciting voter fraud in Georgia and not recall it's really not a witch-hunt when we hear him doing the witch bits. Plus, he's almost 80 and going to be spending huge swathes of his time travelling to and from courtrooms - this will impact his ability to campaign. I think the more Trump is back in the daily news cycle and tied to the above crimes, as well as undoubtedly saying more insane sh*t like he's been doing for the past 3 months (seriously, go listen to some of the nonsense) it'll remind independents of who he really is, not the rose-coloured pre-covid economy stuff he's trying to peddle.

3. If Biden falls/gets ill/dies. Obviously.

Turnout and voter enthusiasm to actually vote will drive each of these.

 

[4bars]

I obviously hope it's not the case, but I would love to understand what it is about Trump that is attracting new, young voters. Outside of I guess new MAGA 'kids'.

Might be that Trump doesn't attract new young voters but that Biden attract less young voters than 2020. After all we are talking about percentages not absolute terms

 

[4bars]

So he will be awarding 17 extra billions to a fecking bad guy....like it make sense he said anything like that

 

[maniak]

So he will be awarding 17 extra billions to a fecking bad guy....like it make sense he said anything like that

He's hands are tied you know. He's just the president, he doesn't have that much power.

 

[Red in STL]

He's hands are tied you know. He's just the president, he doesn't have that much power.

He's damned if does and damned if he doesn't, same applies to Trump, there's a reason this has been going on for decades

 

[maniak]

He's damned if does and damned if he doesn't, same applies to Trump, there's a reason this has been going on for decades

Polls seem to show americans want a ceasefire. Instead biden just sends more and more money and support. This is not a "hands tied" situation, this is ideological.

 

[4bars]

He's damned if does and damned if he doesn't, same applies to Trump, there's a reason this has been going on for decades

Agree, but if you give 17 billions to israel to continue the massacre, at least don't push the narrative that "he is not speaking to Netanyahu because what he is doing in Gaza" or last tweet calling him "bad fecking guy" because is not true. Is just a fecking lie. He is completely on board of what is happening in Gaza so own it and don't push lies in the media that he is against what is happening while his party is doing the opposite in congress/senate

 

[Redplane]

Polls seem to show americans want a ceasefire. Instead biden just sends more and more money and support. This is not a "hands tied" situation, this is ideological.

No it's political and economical. If Palestine had any military, political or economical relevance this wouldn't be so clear cut for those with the power in the west. Look at all the warring going on in places like the African continent and large swaths of South America little attention has been given to while thousands are slaughtered in many of those places.

 

[maniak]

No it's political and economical. If Palestine had any military, political or economical relevance this wouldn't be so clear cut for those with the power in the west.

I guess if I was american I'd be in denial as well.

 

[Redplane]

I guess if I was american I'd be in denial as well.

What about that is denial exactly.

 

[maniak]

What about that is denial exactly.

Biden's ideology is clearly one of supporting israel, that seems pretty clear judging him by his history of clear support and his absolute inaction in the present, even refusing something as basic as a humanitarian ceasefire. In fact, he's doing the opposite, undermining humanitarian efforts.

Polls show most americans want a ceasefire, so if it's political why is not going with that? Because it's ideological.

 

[Red in STL]

Polls seem to show americans want a ceasefire. Instead biden just sends more and more money and support. This is not a "hands tied" situation, this is ideological.

Polls show most Americans want gun control but it isn't happening, same with Dobbs

The reality is that whatever Biden does or doesn't do he will be criticized, same with Trump

 

[maniak]

Polls show most Americans want gun control but it isn't happening, same with Dobbs

The reality is that whatever Biden does or doesn't do he will be criticized, same with Trump

Yeah but being criticized by trying to stop a genocide is a good thing. Being criticized by supporting is quite another.

 

[Red in STL]

Yeah but being criticized by trying to stop a genocide is a good thing. Being criticized by supporting is quite another.

So say Biden shuts off the money to Israel when demands for ceasefire are ignored, what do you think would happen?

 

[Redplane]

Biden's ideology is clearly one of supporting israel, that seems pretty clear judging him by his history of clear support and his absolute inaction in the present, even refusing something as basic as a humanitarian ceasefire. In fact, he's doing the opposite, undermining humanitarian efforts.

Polls show most americans want a ceasefire, so if it's political why is not going with that? Because it's ideological.

You can't see things in isolation. Do you really think Biden would be able to leverage all the military and economic might of this country for things like that if there wasn't serious support for some of it? The power of the federal system extends far beyond the presidency. They are not kings. Even if it was ideological alone for Biden, there are many other interests at play. Many things happening now are the result of decades of actions before it.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

This is from Politico:

One House Democrat told me of a dinner last month with about eight other colleagues, a cross-section of the caucus ideologically and generationally. “It was unanimous that this Israel-Gaza war needed to end now and that Biden needed to stand up to Bibi,” this lawmaker told me, before offering his own view.

“This is a disaster politically,” said this House Democrat, who rarely criticizes Israel. “The base is really pissed — and it’s not just the leftists. I have never seen such a depth of anguish as I’ve seen over this Gaza issue. Bibi is toxic among many Democratic voters and Biden must distance himself from him — yesterday.”

House Dems seem to believe Biden can act differently. Are they dumb?

 

[maniak]

You can't see things in isolation. Do you really think Biden would be able to leverage all the military and economic might of this country for things like that if there wasn't serious support for some of it? The power of the federal system extends far beyond the presidency. They are not kings. Even if it was ideological alone for Biden, there are many other interests at play. Many things happening now are the result of decades of actions before it.

Why are you talking about "all the military and economic might of this country"? I'm talking about human decency basic stuff 101: don't support genocide. If this is somehow too complicated for a leader, than I guess he's a bad leader.

 

[maniak]

So say Biden shuts off the money to Israel when demands for ceasefire are ignored, what do you think would happen?

Israel would have less resources to commit their genocide and the UN would have a mandate to intervene.

 

[Red in STL]

Israel would have less resources to commit their genocide and the UN would have a mandate to intervene.

And the likes of Iran would be rubbing their hands with glee, I'm fairly sure Putin would supply them with whatever they wants as well

 

[maniak]

And the likes of Iran would be rubbing their hands with glee, I'm fairly sure Putin would supply them with whatever they wants as well

Israel would prioritize their current genocidal war over their own safety in regards to iran? I somehow doubt it. More likely israel would back down.

 

[Raoul]

So say Biden shuts off the money to Israel when demands for ceasefire are ignored, what do you think would happen?

There would be no ceasefire either way since the only thing that can trigger an immediate ceasefire is Hamas returning Israeli hostages (in exchange for Palestinian prisoners).