Trump +6 in Pennsylvania? No way man.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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Trump +6 in Pennsylvania? No way man.
They are a GOP Leaning Pollsters ran by GOP strategists....
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...o-fix-the-chronic-republican-problem-of-bad-p
If you look at the crosstabs, the poll has Trump leading Harris 49% to 48% with women voters! That is the kind of numbers we may see in Alabama!
Pretty highly rated by 538. That poll is an outlier and Trump won’t win PA by six percentage points but it’s not great. Just when things were starting to feel a little optimistic.
I don't think any administration is preferable - Israeli support is deeply bipartisan. If the Dems are willing to sacrifice a few hundred thousand votes in their most crucial swing state in an election year, then the "pro-Palestinian" base makes no difference to the party structure, which is just as pro-Israel as the GOP. Same with Harris and her campaign, which have run an astonishingly insensitive campaign.
About the long-term future, I also believe both are equivalent. But, to play devil's advocate: if Trump does implement his "50, 100, 200%" tarrifs, they will crash the US economy and place its future as the global hegemon in peril. A weaker US is the fastest path to Palestinian freedom of any kind.
Totally disagree. All the evidence of what Trump wishes to do about Gaza is all there for you. Or should i say, what he won't do, because he will ignore the issue as he doesnt give two hoots.
Some fuzzy logic there. Vote for Trump because he will crash the economy and thus the US won't be able to send weapons to Israel!
That is like saying we should burn down Old Trafford to avoid losing the next game!
There is no correlation historically between a drop in defence spending and US recessions.
Defence spending accounts for 3% of US GDP. Pull that money and you make the problem even worse!
Regarding the discussion about Gaza: who the Israelis prefer: Harris or Trump? The answer is clear.
“Israelis massively favor Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Kamala Harris in the upcoming US presidential elections, according to a poll published Monday.
When asked who they preferred as the next US president, 66 percent chose the former president, while only 17% said they wanted to see the US vice president win the election. A further 17% said they did not know.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-...y-favor-trump-over-harris-in-us-election/amp/https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-...y-favor-trump-over-harris-in-us-election/amp/
“Israelis massively favor Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Kamala Harris in the upcoming US presidential elections, according to a poll published Monday.
When asked who they preferred as the next US president, 66 percent chose the former president, while only 17% said they wanted to see the US vice president win the election. A further 17% said they did not know.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-...y-favor-trump-over-harris-in-us-election/amp/https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-...y-favor-trump-over-harris-in-us-election/amp/
Interesting enough thread
A poll showing this shouldn’t be published 5 days before a presidential election.
You're a superior two issue voter then, voting on behalf of people who matter more than Palestinians?
I have long avoided the endless debate about Gaza: Harris vs. Trump. Here is a simple way of explaining why I voted for Harris:
Scenario 1:
Harris=Trump on Gaza, 1-1
Harris> Trump on other issues. 1M>0
Conclusion: Harris
Scenario 2:
Harris> Trump on Gaza, 1.5>1
Harris> Trump on other issues. 1M>0
Conclusion: Harris
It’s simple mathematics.
(I articulated many times my disapproval of the Biden policy towards Gaza).
Scenario 1:
Harris=Trump on Gaza, 1-1
Harris> Trump on other issues. 1M>0
Conclusion: Harris
Scenario 2:
Harris> Trump on Gaza, 1.5>1
Harris> Trump on other issues. 1M>0
Conclusion: Harris
It’s simple mathematics.
(I articulated many times my disapproval of the Biden policy towards Gaza).
That would change substantially if Trump would be the head of the conservative party of THESE countries. politics are almost like a football team, the cnut you hate you love when plays for you with exceptions
Yes, this is bang on in my opinion. Cue another 50 pages of back and forth...
It's not really applicable. You vote more for the party, and not the figurehead in my neck of the woods. Besides, the Republicans are FAR FAR more to the right of our only "far right" party.
He's not wrong.....
Also, that young girl on the right looks absolutely enthused to be there.
To the right of, yes, but not FAR FAR to the right IMO. They are importing American culture war as fast as they can, and it's working.
Totally disagree. All the evidence of what Trump wishes to do about Gaza is all there for you. Or should i say, what he won't do, because he will ignore the issue as he doesnt give two hoots.
Some fuzzy logic there. Vote for Trump because he will crash the economy and thus the US won't be able to send weapons to Israel!
That is like saying we should burn down Old Trafford to avoid losing the next game!
There is no correlation historically between a drop in defence spending and US recessions.
Defence spending accounts for 3% of US GDP. Pull that money and you make the problem even worse!
I'm not saying vote for Trump. I'm saying that reading magic into things Harris has never said, in order to believe that she'd change course on Israel policy, should be taken as seriously as what I said about Trump crashing the economy.
To follow on from the previous, I think scenario 1 here is defensible. I just really dislike the mental gymnastics involved in arguing more broadly than that.
Yes, that is a fair point.
Severity of language is not my concern, accuracy is.
That doesn't mean everone has to give a full accounting of events but we should strive to fairly reflect the reality of what has occurred in our descriptions.
If someone were to say that "Trump is being too tough on immigration" in relation to his Haitian comments, I think that is bullshit. Trump has been engaged in violent and racist fascist lies and propaganda. Use language that describes that. And it doesn't have to be excessively strong either.
Even as a joke the point about an economically weaker US down prioritizing foreign policy makes more sense than what's going on here.
The fantasies about the incoming Harris pivot, or her real and true hidden intentions, or the speculations about how a Trump presidency would lead to an order of magnitude more deaths, are the equivalent of the right wingers who don't support Russia's invasion of Ukraine stating that it never would have happened if Trump was president. It's wishful thinking and alternative history designed to let people convince themselves that they're not really supporting what they're supporting.
Seen tons of celebrity endorsements for Harris tonight. Lebron James just now.
Because Trump would certify any terrain gain and would support any diplomatic advance like Jerusalem as their capital. Also would support and Iran attack. That is why Trump would be way worse in many aspects including middle east. But all this is fairly irrelevant to the bombing of Gazans. They will care little what institutional and land recognition is considered while dying or pushed away
Well the obvious reason, and it doesn’t just apply to threads concerning the American election, is that the Current Events section simply isn’t representative of the wider population.
Had a hospital check-up today, a 3 mile trip each way thru mostly suburban housing 10 miles out of STL city, about half you'd classify as lower income and half as middle income areas, the county is a Demcratic area as a whole, what struck me most was the general lack of yard signs compared with previous elections
I saw just 2 Harris/Walz signs, 1 Trump and 1 Trump/Vance
MO has an amendment on Abortion being protected in the State Constitution, I saw maybe 15 against and about 7-8 in favour, allowing sports betting with the money raised protected for education I saw zero, annsd a local proposition for firefighters outnumbering everything else put together with only yes and no nays sih
Not scientific I know, but it just appeared to apathetic compared to elections past
I saw just 2 Harris/Walz signs, 1 Trump and 1 Trump/Vance
MO has an amendment on Abortion being protected in the State Constitution, I saw maybe 15 against and about 7-8 in favour, allowing sports betting with the money raised protected for education I saw zero, annsd a local proposition for firefighters outnumbering everything else put together with only yes and no nays sih
Not scientific I know, but it just appeared to apathetic compared to elections past
There was a poll in a national newspaper in Belgium, stating Harris and Trump policies. About 85% of Belgians would vote Harris based on that.
I agree with your example but I'm not sure about the case that triggered this conversation. Anyway, fair enough re. your point here.
Harris is probably favoured in every single European country except Serbia, Belarus and Russia. In many cases overwhelmingly so. Kinsella is right that the CE doesn't reflect the wider population, but as far as Europe goes he's the clear outlier.
Trump is suing CBS for 10 billion dollars apparently
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-sues-cbs-over-kamala-harris-interview-2024-10-31/
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-sues-cbs-over-kamala-harris-interview-2024-10-31/
Kind of a side point, but this idea of openly advertising your political position is so strange to me. I couldn't imagine decorating my home with a political sign or wearing an item of clothing indicating who I'm going to vote for.
There are zero signs on my street and none on the streets either side of me. There's one guy a few streets over who has a Trump flag, but that's it. I think it's to avoid alienating your neighbors this time. Rhetoric is too strong, passions too inflamed. I'm pretty sure the guy near me who has a dually pickup truck and a 2nd amendment sticker on it is a Trump fan, but he/they know if they put up a sign it's going to trigger chaos in the neighborhood. There are a lot of immigrants and nonwhites in my neighborhood, so that guy is probably accurately seeing which way the wind is blowing.
This time 'round it's been agit prop. The people driving around with Trump flags in their cars and the "Trump train" (caravan) shit is to provoke, not to express solidarity. Trump has really caused this country to come unglued. It has never been this bad before. Once Trump is dead and gone I hope we get back to our usual brand of dysfunction.
I’ve no knowledge of the print media in Belgium but the dwindling relevance of newspapers themselves together with the political ‘affiliation’ of the particular newspaper you’re referring to will be factors in the poll result.
Just to support what I’m saying on the unrepresentative nature of the forum - the other obvious issue to cite is the Brexit referendum which was around 66% against leaving the EU. At least I think that’s what it was…I’m happy to be corrected on it if I’m wrong.
Put this up on my roof deck on Monday....
My wife made me take it down though. Fear of retribution from MAGA!
There's not much point in yard signs here either. Two Harris signs and zero Trump signs at the hundred or so houses in my community. Everyone knows that the overwhelming majority here will vote Harris even though the residents are mostly white and over 60. Anyone who puts up a Trump sign risks being shunned indefinitely.
The actual debate is whether people vote using this type of simple mathematics at all times and whether they ought to.
Nationally, Harris leads Trump by between 19 and 29 points among those who say they’ve already voted, which is more than Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The election, of course, is decided in the swing states. But there, the polls suggest Harris is also banking a sizable advantage heading into Election Day.Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
- Arizona: 9-12 points
- Georgia: 7-10 points
- Michigan: 26-39 points
- North Carolina: 2-6 points
- Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
- Wisconsin: 22-60 points
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/
Put this up on my roof deck on Monday....
My wife made me take it down though. Fear of retribution from MAGA!
Smart she is
Worth it not is
We do live in a very blue area. But hey, she was probably right. Especially so close to a poll location !
Honestly, they should be shunned. I was in a facebook community group for my area, and someone wrote something that caused a bunch of "neighbors" to tag that person and say things like, "Just cast my vote for TRUMP, just for you" etc. It's a weird sickness these people have. It's a triumphalist attitude. When others asked if they were not bothered by voting for a felon, racist, rapist, fraudster, feeble minded nitwit, (etc.), they chalked that up to "fake news", and said the Justice Dept has been "weaponized" against Trump (even though the state courts are not under the DoJ). It's sad, but I hope/pray that Harris wins and that Trump goes to prison, and then the spell will be broken.
We do live in a very blue area. But hey, she was probably right. Especially so close to a poll location !
You only need a crazy one and usually are in Maga camp