2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

It is possible that things change from now until election day, but that does not mean polling shouldn't be taken too seriously.

The polling has been remarkably clear on this matter. The American voter felt that Biden was too old to be president again, and said so in poll after poll after poll. He has now been replaced with someone who isn't old, and that person is polling much better than Biden. Clearly there was some important percentage of voters who were serious about not voting for the old guy.

It was obvious after the debates that Biden had no chance of winning the election. It's going to come down to turnout in November in a handful of swing states. I don't think polls right now are really insightful in showing how that turnout will actually be in November and how much things like voter suppression will make a difference.
 


The memes write themselves

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The memes write themselves

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Tbf, Trump-campaign sunk hard in 2016, only for the electoral college to rescue the ship, with a million of lifeboats from rural Kentucky.

Failing upwards is what he do best.
 
All the more reason to not take polls too seriously at this stage. Everyone, including most here, thought the election was over after the assassination attempt. Then Biden drops out and everything changes. There will at least be a few more shifts/surprises before November so I think the point is even more true this year, polls right now don't mean much to who will win in November especially because it still comes down to smallest margins of turnout in a handful of midwestern swing states..

Yes they are all over the place this year, that's for sure.

This one was just released a couple of days ago and paints a completely different picture than the NYT poll posted on the previous page.

 
Biden could not energize people like Harris is doing. I see it close to home too. It just wasn’t happening for him. Glad the change was made. Hopefully it’s enough.
 
The funniest election result, and in a good way, would be for Harris to win all the swing-states in the sun-belt, and getting uncomfortably close to flipping Texas too, while losing the rust-belt states.

Just so that these 3 states will be put on note, they aren't the only one's having to get pandered too, every single time, due to the EC.
 
Yes they are all over the place this year, that's for sure.

This one was just released a couple of days ago and paints a completely different picture than the NYT poll posted on the previous page.


I remember Trafalgar's polls being all over the place in 2020. They were pro Trump back then.
 
I'm waiting for Vivek to tweet "If Kamala is really half south asian, have her make a masala dosa video on your YouTube channel, and let people decide for. themselves".
I would love to watch that video. Masala is hard to make.
The obvious implication is ‘you wouldn’t think a mixed race woman like her would have an English sounding last name’.

Just assume the worst for the Donald and you’d rarely miss.
He says the quiet part out loud.
They’re fairly accurate but they can’t really predict whether people polled are actually going to bother to vote. The best we can do is use likely voter (LV) polls such as the one above. Harris looks in good shape for the time being, but that could quickly change now that the momentary euphoria of her coronation is slowly dissipating.
This and the following comment seem to be holding polls as equal across the board, when the polling methodology and firms conducting them vary wildly in reliability and scientific accuracy.
Yes they are all over the place this year, that's for sure.

This one was just released a couple of days ago and paints a completely different picture than the NYT poll posted on the previous page.


NY Times poll is at the top of the list, and the Trafalgar one is at #273. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
 
I'd assume it's from when they vetted him.
Correct.

One of the people described the dossier as a preliminary version of Vance’s vetting file.
The research dossier was a 271-page document based on publicly available information about Vance’s past record and statements, with some — such as his past criticisms of Trump — identified in the document as “POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.”
 
I'd have to assume that they found all his past statements on cat ladies, divorce, and all that too, but obviously it wasn't a disqualifier. Either because they misjudged how it would be perceived, or because they were just too arrogant at the time given the state of Biden.
 
I’m not sure what’s harder to believe, that they actually vetted JD Vance, the that someone still uses AOL.