Thing is, there's no scenario where an unnamed D runs. Newsom, Whitmer, Obama etc. would all do worse than an unnamed D because the unnamed D is a combination of imaginary virtues and zero baggage. If any of those think they can win, they would still be running.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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Thing is, there's no scenario where an unnamed D runs. Newsom, Whitmer, Obama etc. would all do worse than an unnamed D because the unnamed D is a combination of imaginary virtues and zero baggage. If any of those think they can win, they would still be running.
I agree that "generic Dem" isn't a real person, but
1. the very very consistent senate vs president gap suggests he's less popular than popular figures from his party
2. No! There are massive costs to running (massive division in party, tanking your own career, not having the chance in 2028, fundraising). I would guess most hope Trump's second term is as bad as his first, and 2028 would be a much easier proposition. Also, the primary electorate is very different than the general, as 2016 and Republican senate failures in 2022 showed - doing well in the party against an incumbent (almost unprecedented) isn't the same as winning the general at all.
You are somewhat right. we would need to know who would be this D
But there is the example that @berbatrick added where in all battle states, Dems would vote D for the Senate by a decent margin but not Biden. IMO that says a lot of the level of engagement that Biden has now and I presume is dreadful
Twitter use base is very less compared to Facebook, I doubt it has any bearing on US elections.
Then again, basically every election since 2012 or something, shows that split tickets happens less and less.
If polls are accurate in that Biden is losing by a landslide, dems aren't actually going to take back the house, and hold 50 seats on the senate.
Either downballot dems carries Biden, or he drags them down, at some point the polls has to reflect that.
That's not accurate. The Democrat party is still heavily bound of protocols, especially seniority. Since the incumbent, Biden, decided to run, neither Whitmer or Newsom was even willing to test a run. Not because they didn't think they could win but because they are still adhering to the seniority principle. Personally I think both would perform better in the GE than Biden because the main weaknesses of Biden wouldn't apply to them (age/cognitive decline, Israel-Gaza) and they are both capable of arguing/presenting the Democrat platform in a much more articulate fashion. Polls don't tell us much here because of name recognition and the fact we aren't really comparing Biden vs Whitmer or Newsom the same way we could if there was actually a real primary involving them.
I think 2024 is a pretty unique situation regarding split tickets. There isn't another example where there are some very stark contrasts between a Dem President and downticket candidates here regarding age/cognitive decline and Israel support. So we can't really take what happened in 2012 or 2016 as predicative of 2024.
No, it won't be, split tickets simply don't happen that much anymore, everyone isn't just going to do a 180 on voting habbits for this one.
Israel doesn't matter much, most of the dem party has the exact same position on Israel as Biden anyway, why would they be popular?
"In a finding that will frustrate Democrats, even as it presents opportunity for Mr. Biden, nearly 20 percent of voters blame him more than they do Mr. Trump for the Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 to overturn Roe v. Wade."
I genuinely don't know who they are talking to in these polls, did everyone just lose 40 points of IQ in the last year?
I guess actual reality isn't reality anymore.
I genuinely don't know who they are talking to in these polls, did everyone just lose 40 points of IQ in the last year?
I guess actual reality isn't reality anymore.
It's not split in the sense that people will vote for Trump and the D Senate candidate, but rather they will vote for the D Senate candidate and simply not vote for President or log some write-in protest vote like Bernie or something. There are unique conditions this year that simply don't apply to other years. And we don't actually know that Whitmer or Newsom would have the same degree of support for Israel as Biden because both are younger and don't have a career long obsession with backing Israel at all costs.
What i mean by that, is that Israel is not high on the list of priorities for americans, it just isn't, and neither is foreign policy overall.
It might matter in Michigan and Minnesota, which is admittedly a big deal, but outside of those, domestic policy is at the front.
Disastrous polling numbers in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, simply can't be explained by Israel.
It doesn't have to be high on the list for most Americans. It just has to be high enough for enough voters in swing states that it can switch the outcome. Plus I never said Israel was the only distinguishing issue. Age/cognitive decline and perception of the economy are also factors here that differentiate Biden from any other recent candidate. Also, Pennsylvania has a substantial Muslim population so its definitely in the Michigan, Minnesota category unlike Nevada and Arizona.
The uncommitted vote in these battleground states staying home is not enough to swing the election, the math doesn't work out.
Look at the margins for the battleground states in 2020 and compare uncommited/write-ins in dem primaries this year, i dont think it even swings Michigan, let alone Pennsylvania.
He would have to lose a lot more voters due to other reasons, domestic ones.
The average american really doesn't care that much about geopolitics.
I've already mentioned multiple times today alone (and every time I've commented on this) that there are three general factors at play here. Not just support for Israel but also age/cognitive decline and perception of the economy that distinguish 2024 from every other election year, including Biden in 2020, which explain why we see a lot more support for Dem Senate candidates than Biden currently.
And for the numbers, the margin for PA in 2020 was 80,555 votes. If you take into account the Muslim population in PA is about 150,000 then add in college students and others that feel strongly about Biden's support for Israel and then you also add those other other two factors that I have repeatedly mentioned, then there are certainly valid reasons to believe Dem Senate candidates might see a substantially higher percentage of the vote than Biden in 2024. You can't just base it on things like "split" votes in 2012 or even 2020 because none of those three factors were as relevant in other years as they are now.
Think I've mentioned it before, but this reminds me of a clip of a couple being interviewed before the 2016 election.
The husband was suffering from black lung and was only able to pay his medical bills due to Obamacare, yet he said he was going to vote Trump, who of course had promised to end Obamacare, because he was a republican and liked Trump as a person (of something to that effect).
Been thinking alot about the media ecosystem - between Faux News, the amplification effect of social media and the general liberal desire to frame everything as awful: is incumbency now a hinderance?
The details of all these polls is fascinating - almost in all cases the individuals believe their lives, their local politics and their local economy are doing fine, but the nation has gone to hell. So they vote against the 'nation' in the incumbent.
I'm not sure how an incumbent can tackle such negativity. It's drastically easier to be an 'outsider' and claim you alone have solutions to fix 'it'.
The details of all these polls is fascinating - almost in all cases the individuals believe their lives, their local politics and their local economy are doing fine, but the nation has gone to hell. So they vote against the 'nation' in the incumbent.
I'm not sure how an incumbent can tackle such negativity. It's drastically easier to be an 'outsider' and claim you alone have solutions to fix 'it'.
Is it not quite the opposite with Biden? I’m not American, but based on @Raoul posts, isn’t there the perception that on a big scale, the country is doing well, but on an individual level, the people are feeling the squeeze?
Trump is going to win comfortably, and at least we saw it coming this time so I can ignore the election night coverage and avoid stress.
"Doing well" is always relative depending on who you ask. Beyond his age, the thing that's hurting Biden the most is a lingering perception that prices were cheaper when Trump was in office, which goes back to the old Reagan question "are you better off today than you were four years ago".
Because of inflation, the answer is usually no, and even though Biden has brought inflation down over the past year or so, the cost of buying food is still significantly higher than when Trump was in office.
A lot of that has to do with the lingering economic shock of the pandemic, and since 78% of Americans still `live paycheck to paycheck, Biden will still get blamed when people are confronted by absurd supermarket prices. Add to that interest rates are very high which makes it harder to afford new homes and cars. So all things said, despite the economy and stock market doing relatively well, people are still struggling which is why Trump is outpolling Biden on the economy, which is the number one issue that animates people to vote.
Abortion is on the ballot in some key states. I just don't see Trump doing as well as he did last election vote wise. If the Dems can get out the vote like they did last time (or close to it), I think Biden wins comfortably. The fervor just isn't there this time around for Trump.
Not sure roughly what part of MD you live in, but talking to a small sample of people I know in passing conversations, there's really not much enthusiasm all around regarding Trump, for or against, and even politics in general like there was in 2020. Which is what happens when both of the candidates are roughly 80 years old. Turnout will drop across the board, but that could help Dems if special elections are anything to go by.
Not as confident in my Biden win prediction as I was couple months ago, but based on what I've seen in 2022/2023, I don't see Trump winning any of the blue wall rust belt states he needs to win the election. Flipping back GA, AZ, and even flipping NV is not enough for Trump to win the election.
It's not just a perception though it's a cold hard fact. $20 worth of gasoline in 2019 now costs $25.01 and $20 of food in 2019 now costs $25.37. These key prices are ~25% higher. By comparison the prices for food and gasoline were only about ~8% higher from 2015 to 2020.
It's the same everywhere though, UK Petrol prices are 25% higher as well, a price of milk is up nearly 50% since 2020. Bread is up 30%.
The world economy is fecked basically. The Dems need to get better at talking about this. Trump or Biden they have little control over such things.
I am in deep red Maryland (southern part of the Eastern Shore), and there are far fewer Trump flags, stickers etc... than there used to be. This time 4 years ago, damn near every pickup truck was flying a big ass flag or at least had a Trump sticker. There are a few around but not nearly as much. Doesn't mean they aren't going to go out and vote for him, but I just don't see the enthusiasm anymore. What will be telling is the primaries today. Will the Trumper (Ficker) beat the more moderate Larry Hogan on the republican side. If Hogan wins, I think it's a good sign for Biden. On the flip side, Hogan can actually win the senate seat so that could spell a possible mixed result (where the republican wins the senate seat, but Biden wins the state).
Absolutely. And this is where I think Biden's age problem comes in to exacerbate the problem since he's not very good at articulating these points. A Newsom it Whitmer would be much better at communicating this to the public.
Although Eastern Shore does have its fair share of passionate Trump support, it isn't actually as deep red as one might think, unless you're comparing to the state at large. Biden flipped Talbot/Kent counties and nearly flipped Wicomico in 2020. Few other Eastern Shore counties have voted Democrat not long in the past. (Dorchester in 1996, and Somerset being only one of few McCain-Obama counties)
I live closer to other side of the state, not quite in the panhandle but somewhere thereabouts. 4 years ago I saw Trump signs all over near where I lived so I get what you mean by lack of Trump support on the ground. The general election is still 6 months out though, and I'm beginning to see some crop up again.
Hogan won't win the senate seat, though he'll definitely come closer than any other possible GOP candidate. I don't think it's really worth paying attention to or worrying about unless you want to know who the Democratic nominee is gonna be. We haven't elected a GOP senator since 1980.
I’m in deep blue Maryland… and I wonder how the uncommitted vote will do today. I know few who voted or plan to vote uncommitted, but that’s just anecdotal evidence. I expect Biden to get 80% or so of the votes.
The key race today: who will be the nominee for the Senate on the Democratic side. I didn’t have a clear preference, but Trone has spammed the TV with his ads. He also voted for an aid package that I didn’t like, and so I decided to vote for someone else.
The key race today: who will be the nominee for the Senate on the Democratic side. I didn’t have a clear preference, but Trone has spammed the TV with his ads. He also voted for an aid package that I didn’t like, and so I decided to vote for someone else.
In the last 100 years, there have only been 2 republican governors of Maryland. I do think Hogan can make it a close race, if not win. I voted for Trone since I think he has the best chance of beating Hogan (he has run a lot of folksy "I am from the Eastern Shore" commercials around here).
Until recently, I was thinking to vote for him, precisely because I thought that he’s best positioned to beat Hogan. But, he just didn’t convince me that he’s the person that we need. Voting for sending billions to the war in Gaza sealed it for me.
Everything about Trump just stops in 2019, nobody talks about the fact he was president in 2020, Covid actually happened under his watch.
People won't blame Trump for Covid, but they will blame Biden for inflation, despite both being global things.
Yes, because as they said above, people are retarded and they will vote again for Trump because they don't understand how things work
There's a good chance Trump would still be president without covid - his polling noticeably dropped in May after he started feuding with Fauci, Biden ran on "pro-science" which seemed to work in enough suburbs, and of course the postal voting which led to a record turnout.
I mean, if people actually blame Biden for Roe being overturned(x doubt), we may as well call it quits right now.
But yeah, people don't know how things work, the prime example is that how most people trust republicans on the economy, but ask the same voters if rich should pay more or less taxes, they say more....
You believe Hogan can actually win it?
Last few elections shows people split tickets less and less for federal races, i don't see how this happens, this isn't 2012 anymore.
For the same reason, i believe it all looks way too pretty for Tester and Brown right now, Tester isn't going to win that state, if Biden is down by 20.
Yes, Hogan can win, partly because he’s popular in Maryland and partly because people (me included) are not particularly excited about the democrats running against him. I’ll vote for whomever the nominee in November, but others may not. If many democrats who don’t like Biden this year won’t vote in November, that will vastly improve Hogan’s chances.
Now, will he win? I don’t think so. It’s a mountain to climb. I just think that it’s possible that he could get a win.