Trump winning the nomination is Biden's best chance to get re-elected. Haley will win the general easily.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Is Biden’s biggest selling point that he’s not Trump? That worked in 2020, but I’m not so sure if it has enough legs this time around.
Its his main selling point. There are of course others such as the pretty stark policy differences between Ds and Rs on a range of issues from abortion to border policy to tax cuts and beyond.
2/3 is just congress, states is 3/4
There’s pretty strong coordinated (between Russia and Musk) bot campaign against Nikky on Twitter it seems. Every post is just flooded with trolls / bots instantly. Putin is doing everything he can do get Trump.
We have compulsory voting and it works well with very high turnouts (over 90%) and no grumbling about it. And of course it doesn't force you to vote, merely turn up.
What is actually going on with Haley? A week after putting her foot in her mouth with the whole slavery and civil war thing, she comes out with this nonsense. Who is she pandering to? Even saying something like "Of course, slavery and segregation was racist, but we have moved past that now", I would imagine would be good enough for the majority of the base.
Considering Trump is running basically as an incumbent, is 51% in Iowa really that impressive? Low turnout, btw.
It’s not no. I would imagine the vast, vast majority of the people that voted in the Iowa caucus have voted Trump twice in the general - half of them now want something different.
It’s gonna be a moot point though. He will win the nomination easily.
Haley is terrible herself. That’s what Trumpisim does to you.
@Mike Smalling, it’s not about winning the nomination. He’s the clear favorite. It’s about signs that many GOP voters want to move on of him. This could matter in November. We will see.
Exactly; not impressive at all. We will see what happens in the next few states.
@Mike Smalling, it’s not about winning the nomination. He’s the clear favorite. It’s about signs that many GOP voters want to move on of him. This could matter in November. We will see.
Trump isn't "basically" an incumbent. He's neither an incumbent nor a normal candidate.
I wouldn't put much stock into the results. Voters in those first primary states often like rewarding people who put the time and effort.
I wouldn't put much stock into the results. Voters in those first primary states often like rewarding people who put the time and effort.
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But even if the voters show signs of "Trump fatigue" and the other candidates do better than expected/better than the last nomination, would it matter that much in the general election?
It seems to me that most voters in the US (and more and more in Europe as well) are incredibly tribal - "I'd never vote for the other party, no matter how bad the candidate for R/D is".
Or does it mean that many of the people voting for the other candidates now, won't vote in the GE if Trump ends up winning?
It seems to me that most voters in the US (and more and more in Europe as well) are incredibly tribal - "I'd never vote for the other party, no matter how bad the candidate for R/D is".
Or does it mean that many of the people voting for the other candidates now, won't vote in the GE if Trump ends up winning?
Can be argued if he is running as some sort of independent, he is largely talking about his presidential record(well, lying about it) after all.
Dont think you can dismiss the results though, barely breaking 50% might indicate that Trump isn't as well-liked among Republican voters as polls show, could be some fatigue here.
I mostly agree with this tweet:
Independents are a thing. Believe it or not, there are people who voted twice for Obama and then voted for Trump in 2016. And then there is turnout. For many the alternative to voting for Trump or Biden will be to not vote at all. These early primary results could be an indicator for how much excitement there is around Trump and how much support he has broadly among the right-leaning voter base. A less than convincing primary win might point towards lower turnout for him in the general. I'd bet the people that voted in Iowa on Monday are either going to vote for Trump or not vote - maybe a very small share of the Haley voters will vote Biden.
She's running into the same problem the rest of them did (spare Christie). She needs Trump voters to win and therefore can't say anything to estrange herself from them.
If the Dems had signalled a year ago that Biden would not be running it would have given them time to get people excited by a new face. They have a couple of people capable of winning the Presidency and also a couple of people capable of showing how bad Trump is. Trump would have looked like the old establisment and lost. Sadly however I fear because people view Biden as old an befuddled Trump will win.
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Biden isn't much worse off than his 2020 self and never discount the likelihood that American voters will turn up again to make sure Trump never has access to the WH again.
Yup. Though given the fact this is still a primary it's not the first time a candidate says stupid stuff to pander to the extreme element in a party, only to turn into a more moderate version come general time. Haley would undoubtedly do that because she's a pretty skillfull politician if nothing else - Trump however doesn't know how to. His only devotion is to those who fall at his feet.
I was pretty pessimistic at the last election and there were times on election night I thought Trump had won but there were lots of people on here explaining how when some seats looked likely to go Trumps way that certain areas counts hadnt come in and they would sway things towards Biden. Fortunately those people knew more about it all than I did and things panned out as they said.
Im just gloomy because the idiocy of MAGA seems to have spread around the world.
Dictatorship only works well for the dictator, their family, and a choice few exceptionally wealthy individuals. It eventually goes horribly wrong for said dictator. All the 'in-between' time is horrendous for most others, particularly for the very people who pushed for the dictator to rise to power. If Trump becomes president, good luck with Project 25, America! Good luck to the LGBTQ+ community. I'd be finding a long lost European Grandparent and nabbing a European Passport and a 1 way boarding pass in preparation.
In the extreme and hopefully unlikely event things get messy, US citizens who have Irish Grandparents or Great Grandparents are entitled to Irish Passports. Just something to keep in the back of your mind for any of our US Caf brothers and sisters 
Yes, but even Trump responded to her civil war gaffe with something like "Yeah, it was slavery Nikki - not that difficult". That was mostly opportunism, of course, but he wasn't afraid to say it. This whitewashing of American history when it comes to the Confederacy is mostly relevant to nutjobs in the deep south. It's not really a part of the MAGA platform in general.
Leaving the total non-sequitor aside, this is such a great case of projection by Trump. There's is probably some bank that doesn't want to do business with him anymore, so he projects that this is somehow also a concern for every random guy in New Hampshire or whereever.
"They don't go far"
As if they're obsolete after one charge and can never be recharged.
Obviously, Texas isn't going blue on presidential level, we all know that, guess the good news is Cruz barely hanging on ahead of his potential opponents.
Though, i'm under no illusion Texas senate seat will flip, but it could help if the party had to invest money there, they aren't exactly doing great on fundraising these days anyway.
Texas isn't as far away from flipping as you think it might be.
In 2020, Texas was Trump+5.6. 4 years prior to that, Georgia was Trump+5.3 flipping in the next election
Populous suburbs around the Texas triangle (e.g. Collin, Williamson, Fort Bend counties) are trending rapidly Democratic and rapidly gaining population. There's not enough votes elsewhere in the state going the opposite direction.
I think Trump wins the state by 1 point. If he gets a felony conviction by November, I'm fairly certain it flips.
Yes, its inching closer by the year, although that isn't likely to happen this cycle.
Nah, Texas ain't flipping on presidential level.
Main take-away is that Senate could be closer than one might expect though.
Having a margin of +5 or more is a significant number in a state like Texas. Moreover, the quality of the candidates plays a crucial role. It's possible that a Republican candidate with fewer controversies could secure an even larger victory in the next election cycle(s).
In short, TX is still very far away from becoming anything close to a swing state.