2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

Status
Not open for further replies.
Djemba-Djemba said:
The entire thread today has had people coming in at random points and posting stuff like " not looking good" and " Yikes, Trump will win" based off nothing then just leaving without explaining it.
Click to expand...
Yeah almost annoying as the betting odds updates.
 
As I type this, more than 450,000 people have voted for trump. That's 6 packed out old traffords full of people supporting this lunatic.
 
Tarrou said:
are you suggesting the bookies deliberately mis-priced it to make more money?

that doesn't make much sense
Click to expand...
They adjust their odds to limit their exposure.

Say they've both candidates at 4/5 or 1.8 decimal odds and assume equal amount of money put on. They're guaranteed profit as they'll pay out less than they've taken in no matter who wins.

But if they take double the money on one candidate then they've much more exposure, so it makes sense to limit it by adjusting the odds for future bets.

This isn't necessarily what's happening here and there's loads of other reasons why they adjust odds, but it does happen. You see it quite a bit with popular sports people like McGregor. Although i do think Trump is the type of personality / a bit of a meme that would get more attention.

(apologies for extending the betting talk)
 
neverdie said:
Again, I catch flac because no one (understandably) wants to hear it, but I think Trump will win.

The caveat though is that I gave him GA at a far higher likelihood than 1/3 in my own calculus. That's not how he wins, if he does win. It's the three northern states. And that pathway is almost certain now if NC repeats the GA exit polls. I.e., the road to the presidency is through those three states.

One thing: early days but Trump is outperforming his KY run in 2016 and 2020 by about 4%-5%. This could narrow. If not, it makes things interesting in other states.
Click to expand...
Its PY, isn't it. comes down to 1 state.
 
Wow I guess that specific thing means that it’s Trump’s to lose from here
 
Florida does not look good for dems, which is no surprise.
 
neverdie said:
Economy. People are surprised here - not all tbf - but think about the last four years.

Covid, Russia, Inflation, cost of living, etc. The economy was clearly better four years ago if only because of the cost of living crisis. Now, this isn't to say Biden/Harris are to blame but that is typically what we do in elections: blame the incumbent if our lives are worse off (economically) than they were before we elected them. This is why Harris has tried to stay completely away from Biden. The question is whether it works in the northern states.
Click to expand...

Its funny because despite all that, Biden's economy is very good and Trump has said he's going to destroy it with tariffs and deportations.
 
C4 getting a lot of stick but BBC have Katherine Ryan headlining their coverage.
 
Breaking: "Melania" spotted without sunglasses. Still too close to call whether it’s her or a double.
 
Independents breaking super hard for Trump in Georgia?
 
Georgia was always a long shot for Kamala, she was trailing in pretty much all polls. She has to win WI, MI (both likely) and PA (less likely but possible) to be out of sight.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.