At least they'll recoup the costs from shirt sales.
2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
- Thread starter Raoul
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Very disapointing. Very SAD thread.
Have a really bad feeling
if Trump loses NV, it gives Harris a better chance, yes?
My Twitter feed is exclusively crypto related. I’m in various crypto group chats both US based on Twitter and with guys from the UK like myself via Messenger. My feed is skewed heavily pro Trump and the last few weeks have been exhausting.
The consensus is, Trump good because our crypto bags will go up. I’ve tried fighting the good fight and I’m getting nowhere. Almost all of them are young bedroom investor non educated bros that are all worth high 5 to low 7 figs and they can’t be reasoned with. My role has essentially been devils advocate at best but I’m expecting the worst tonight. As someone else said, Polymarket has them incredibly bullish and I’m less than impressed with how they’ve been representing things in their feed.
I’m hoping I’ve just had my head in the rabbit hole for too long and she somehow wins this thing.
Edit : Crypto markets violent upward price action has me nervous too.
The consensus is, Trump good because our crypto bags will go up. I’ve tried fighting the good fight and I’m getting nowhere. Almost all of them are young bedroom investor non educated bros that are all worth high 5 to low 7 figs and they can’t be reasoned with. My role has essentially been devils advocate at best but I’m expecting the worst tonight. As someone else said, Polymarket has them incredibly bullish and I’m less than impressed with how they’ve been representing things in their feed.
I’m hoping I’ve just had my head in the rabbit hole for too long and she somehow wins this thing.
Edit : Crypto markets violent upward price action has me nervous too.
Generally speaking if Trump loses anywhere it will give Harris a better chance.
I mean - anyone expecting thing substantial before the early evening hours should probably go take a nap or something.
Polymarket means feck all, ignore all the noise. As for Twitter, just forget about the "for you" tab and just use the "following" one
They are a poor poster at best, I’m not sure who promoted them, probably @Cheimoon, but I think this is excessive
Only in so far as the mathematics of more being greater than less.
true, but that also means trend is towards D? and > 270 is possible.
it doesn't mean feckall it the US election market alone has over $2bn in volume
sorry, unable to understand.
edit: what I mean is, how does this impact her path to >270?
You yourself have said you still could get Biden for 16% after he had already won. Crypto bros aren’t exactly well versed in civics.
There's a chance that NV could be decisive if Harris loses PA but manages to win either NC or GA, so yes.
Bottom line is this: Harris needs the Rust Belt (PA-MI-WI) to win. If she loses PA (the most uncertain one) she needs to compensate with 2 other states if at least one of them is GA or NC, if not she'll need 3 (AZ-NV-IA being the only options but then we're well into miracles territory). Any other scenario is either ilogical or in the context of a landslide for one of the candidates.
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Feel like Harris is walking this, Trump had a better chance against Biden in both 2020 and 2024 but not now.
I'm in a similar situation but hardly any of those crypto bros understand anything about politics, so for me they just fall under the same group of people that vote for their own financial interests... out of all the groups of people with vested interests, they have to be one of those most ignorant
Biggest upside is it opens 2 alternative paths to winning for her even if she drops PA. NV + either GA/NC gets her over 270.
Bitcoin has gone from $71k to $67k over the weekend and back to $70K now.
That's more election jitters and big players trying to flush out some stop losses than any sign of a result I think.
yep and that obviously means something? It's a data point, like many others
The issue is that my Following tab is exclusively crypto because I’ve curated it that way for a couple of years to extract the most value. The issue is that election time has come around and it’s now a Trump circle jerk.
As Tarrou said, serious volume is going in to Polymarket which is concerning but it’s a crypto platform and crypto bros have pumped Trump related stuff to eye watering levels for the entire cycle. I shouldn’t be surprised, the only issue is how influential is it outside of the bubble. Hard to tell.
As Tarrou said, serious volume is going in to Polymarket which is concerning but it’s a crypto platform and crypto bros have pumped Trump related stuff to eye watering levels for the entire cycle. I shouldn’t be surprised, the only issue is how influential is it outside of the bubble. Hard to tell.
Thanks, I am very confident about PA. And NV just puts a bow on it.
Unlikely that the Harris administration will be tough on crypto anyway. She signalled support for crypto, no?
Go for a walk and listen to a non politics podcast
I hope so. That makes more sense given even insiders couldn’t possibly have known anything at the early stage the market started to bounce.
That’s the most normal BTC fluctuations you could imagine. I don’t think you can infer anything from it.
When will we start getting the first results/exit polls/real pointers toward results in different states?
If Trump won Nevada it would be an ominous sign, it's supposed to be one of the bluest swing states. Bare minimum achievement for Harris.
Binge The Diplomat on Netflix.
Yep. I tried to explain the difference between Polymarket and traditional pollsters, weighting and samples etc etc - I was pissing in the wind. Cries of ‘lib’ and ‘cope’ are all I hear. At least my net worth should keep going up in the event orange man wins. Unless it’s priced in
They’re already in.
A hamlet with 6 voters. They all voted Trump in 2020. They all voted Haley in the primary. Three voted Trump in this election, three Harris.
I’m really hoping that although this is a quantum sized sample it proves to be an allegory for the election with women coming out in droves against him.
There's going to be alot of eggs on faces if Trump wins, 95% of the media are reporting a Harris win with all their data they have, how could they get it so wrong if Trumpo wins?
Culinary Workers Union endorsed Harris in early October.
That's quite the tough hill to climb for Trump.
Yeah and the auto workers union leaders endorsed Dems but Michigan is still a toss up.
You can’t extract anything of value about winning probability out of that is his point. As a data point, Polymarket is near worthless, at least bettors on capped platforms like PredictIt can’t manipulate the odds so they are more rational about their wager, although still vulnerable to ‘vibes’ to some degrees, think it went to 56-44 for Trump when polling consistently showed a deadheat.
Yep. I tried to explain the difference between Polymarket and traditional pollsters, weighting and samples etc etc - I was pissing in the wind. Cries of ‘lib’ and ‘cope’ are all I hear. At least my net worth should keep going up in the event orange man wins. Unless it’s priced in
There's a decent discount to a bet on Harris on Polymarkets so I've gone fairly big on it, like I did Biden 4 years ago (which I laid off for ~30% profit). I expect I'll lay it off again so I can sleep tonight, hopefully in profit, I'm 8% up now...
It's actually quite a nice bet to let ride if you hold a lot of crypto though, I guess. Because if Kamala loses our net worths are all taking a nice jump anyway.
I thought Biden got five votes in 2020, Trump none. It says so here
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