Actually very interesting. Thanks
2022 US Elections
- Thread starter calodo2003
- Start date
They are one who build the model, but they're weighting the Deluxe version based on expert takes, which does not include themselves. I'm not absolving them of all guilt here, but this is a case of 'everyone' being wrong. I'm not going to feel too cheated that a race with two polls is miscalled.
This is straight out Handmaid's Tale
another school shooting (UVA) so a real good look for the US, even for libs. Our universal obsession of death machines is sick.fecking Muricanseven libs know all about guns
I always had this theory that when there is a huge surplus of humanity in a country that life is even more cheap. If you actually looked up the daily death tolls of India and China you would be shocked.
Already backtracking, so there’s no secret sauce after all.
This guy seems kind of like a dick head no?
A win in Georgia would still be important for democrats as it would make them less reliant on the votes of Joe Manchin. Correct? Have not seen this discussed anywhere.
Ya he's a clown and is more lucky than good in all honesty.
He said he would delete his account if democrats wouldn't gain atleast 2 (or was it 3) seats in the senate. He also changed that to well, I was still a lot closer than most!
Making me hope against hope for nothing. Cnut.
He was more correct than anyone else, so maybe the likes of Wasserman and his friends should consider deleting instead.
Well sure, but if you say: "I will delete my account if X" and after X happens change it to, well others were more wronger than me, it's still weak.
I don't care about that sort of thing. He's doing this as a hobbyist, not as a full time job and can therefore afford to be a bit more over the top than the pros. The fact that he was far more correct than they were should be the primary topic of discussion out of this election.
Isnt he Jamaican?
The biggest difference seems to be that he takes a ton of blind shots, acts like a prophet when he gets some of them and completely ignores all the misses.
Not a fan of that, but the gullible hoards of people wanting good news for Dems should probably not get carried away with any of these guys. People want good news and always get bamboozled by those who have it, when in reality, its never a sure thing.
Nevertheless, if he predicted the Dems would take 220 seats and the pros predicted the Dems would be lucky to get 200, then he is coming out of this looking far better than anyone who does this professionally.
But that was the sort of thing my post was referencing
Well, that, and the fact I'm bitter that his prediction of the dems retaining the house, while close, will ultimately not end up being true.
Amateurs are more correct than the pros every election. Except every election it's a different amateur, because they got lucky.
But that was the sort of thing my post was referencing
Well, that, and the fact I'm bitter that his prediction of the dems retaining the house, while close, will ultimately not end up being true.
This is why people have to take these prognosticators with a massive pinch of salt. Its never an exact science, otherwise these people would be billionaires.
I have no idea... Why would it matter.
I mean, even an amateur can build a model that might be more accurate/applies better to the current election than that of the professionals for whatever reason, coincidental ones or not. Sometimes it's a fine line between "incompetence" and "thinking outside the box"/"innovation".
So for me, the question is whether his model actually is superior to those of the professionals or whether it is inferior and he just had a lucky shot. The latter would mean his streak is unlikely to continue but the former would give hope.
So for me, the question is whether his model actually is superior to those of the professionals or whether it is inferior and he just had a lucky shot. The latter would mean his streak is unlikely to continue but the former would give hope.
Reminds me of one of those ITK football accounts that got a prediction right and now think they are the cats pajamas
Did they though? Cook political report median outcome (I'm assuming half of toss-ups go to either party) leaves Dems at 205 seats. Median 538 outcome seems like 208-209 seats. Depending on how you define "lucky" those outcomes for dems would probably be around 215-220 seats. And both of those forecasters were laughed at by Bouzy.
Also, did he actually publish the full results anywhere? I've only seen his twitter posturing and I'd be very curious about results and margins in states like Florida where republicans did better than expected.
Here's Cook's final pre-election prognostication. No one would view this as a 50/50 proposition whereby the Dems would nearly keep the House. They are basically playing into the red wave narrative and covering their behinds in case it all went wrong, which is what most of these guys do now after being humiliated in 2016.
You are right it doesn't matter if he is Jamaican or a dick.
Seems to be a decently accurate clown
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What are trying to say to chaddy, ramshock?
I think a basic stats course should be a prerequisite for access to, and consumption of poll model information.
A win is always good cause it gives better numbers, and the election map in 2024 is not that great. While theoretically it makes them less dependable on Manchin, he votes with Biden pretty much all the times that it matters. He will vote against for some things (killing filibuster, new states for Puerto Rico), but then half of the Democrats would vote against those policies too.
Is this a 'leopard ate my face' situation? Like he thought Mitch was trustworthy and in it for anything but himself and his donors?
Poor guy, that can't be healthy. Quick, someone accuse his father of murder and call his wife ugly. That's the surest way to get him to return to his usual state of feckless gimp.