2022 US Elections
- Thread starter calodo2003
- Start date
Smaller batch than expected. Another similar one left + 50k in Clark (not all will be eligible).
Looks like it’s gonna be tomorrow before she takes the lead, barring any last minute surprises.
Looks like it’s gonna be tomorrow before she takes the lead, barring any last minute surprises.
I think CCM may win eventually but so far it has been a bit uncomfortable. And most people really don't know how many exact votes are left to count.
Edit: A new batch from Carson City came in and Laxalt gained 41 votes from 2.6k ballots just now.
Edit: A new batch from Carson City came in and Laxalt gained 41 votes from 2.6k ballots just now.
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Electron
Mark Kelly has graduated with 2 diplomas in engineering (marine and aeronautic), but going into that kind of physics is not exactly in his pay grade.
That batch was a lot of the reddish, rural votes left. Most estimates anywhere from 10-20k left in Washoe, 20k left in Clark (with another 15-20k ish in ballots needed curing or provisionals), and 3-5k from rural. Unless CCM starts taking less than 55% from all remaining votes in those blue counties, she should come out ahead with a few thousand votes.
Apparently, the last batch from the Carson City helped CCM but not this one. This will be extremely tight I think.
Carson isnt rural but it’s still a red turf. Laxalt not getting 2:1 there put a big dent in his hope. Let’s go with the lowest estimate and say there are 30k total from Clark + Washoe left, including the cured ballots and provisionals, and Cortez Masto only win them 55:45, that would require Laxalt to win the remaining rural votes (assuming the highest estimate - 5k) 80:20 to come out ahead by a couple hundreds.
It’ll be tighter than we’d have liked, but at the end CCM should come out ahead with 3-6k votes.
I have to think that even some of the Trump hard liners will be looking at him now and thinking it's all starting to get a bit pathetic.
“I’ll take the Trump 2024 banner as a present but I want you to know I’m not happy about it”
Saw an analysis earlier that pointed out, that even though the Georgia senate election is going to a run-off, Herschel Walker will lose a big advantage of sharing a ballot with Brian Kemp that ran for governor. Lots of Walker's votes likely came from people that mostly came to support Kemp, and may not show up for the run-off. It's speculation, but sounds plausible. Let's hope it's true.
Lets fecking go!
Yes
!The infighting will be legendary. DeSantis is too proud to wait four years, and there will be very real concerns about Trump's electability in the general, which will lead the establishment GOP to back DeSantis.
So what's the tendency? There seem to emerge many positive news for the Democrats recently but I expect it is still likely that the GOP wins the congress and the run for the senate is very tight?
From what I've seen looks like Dems will almost certainly maintain control of the Senate with at least 50 seats (51 if they win the run-off in Georgia). In the House, it looks like Republicans might win a very narrow majority (not impossible that it goes the other way though).
Yes
The infighting will be legendary. DeSantis is too proud to wait four years, and there will be very real concerns about Trump's electability in the general, which will lead the establishment GOP to back DeSantis.
I doubt they’ll much infighting. Going off of twitter, reddit and conservative commentators most Republicans have abandoned Trumpism and its only the hardcore deluded who are still clinging on.
Couple of months of Fox indoctrination of why Trump needs to be binned and the percentage of Trump fans left would be irrelevant.
Perhaps, but it's worth remembering that before the 2016 primaries, Fox also spent months being against Trump and pro vanilla candidates like Jeb, Rubio and Cruz - it didn't work. I haven't seen a lot of DeSantis as a public speaker, but I've heard it is really underwhelming. Trump might still wipe the floor with him in the debates.
He still controls the base, which is what matters. Until that changes, he will be the front runner by some distance.
From what little I've seen his public speaking is average but he scores points when owning reporters who ask questions, a bully much like Trump but with less charisma. He's more savvy though and I think just as dangerous unless he's only appeasing the hardcore right to shift more support his way.
This is not a lie.
If he really does have a data model (and I believe he does) driving all these predictions I would love to see it.
He is either a election predicting savant or the political Elizabeth Holmes.
She's getting sentenced very soon, she just begged for leniency in front of the judge. Still trying to determine which voice she used.
It’s almost certainly a perfect storm of data + guesswork + wishful thinking. If it was just data then he would be a billionaire.
This is my thought as well, but he still has nailed it better than any “professional” out there, so there is something to it.
Or he could just be another Rachel Bitecofer (what’s she even doing nowadays after Lincoln Project’s death?)
His real job, I think, is in making software to address social media bots, so I wonder if part of his model is a deep analysis of social media trends. If so, and if he can really separate the shit bits from actual voters, it might give a hint to trends that traditional pollsters miss. Just guessing.