2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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That's the midpoint of a distribution, you shouldn't evaluate it as being accurate if the ECs land exactly there or not.His own website
I've been lucky regarding visa issues. I was close to filing GC application in 2015 but then we were blessed with a daughter and I wanted to wait for an year as my wife traveled back to India to be with her family. All applicants should be in US at the time of filing. I waited for my wife and daughter to come back and by the time they back in 2016, I discussed with my wife and we decided that we won't file if Trump wins the election. I would have qualified for EB1 GC quota which would have made the process a lot simpler and I'd have got a card in an year or so, but i didn't second guess once we made the decision.
that train wreck of a thread was the only reason I went where I did. Agreed on your point which is why I stayed in the lane I did.
Imagine being a racist when you look like that.
i'm sure the dems will try, will be interesting to see if people will buy it. i have a feeling they will.
Another way of reading the information he's provided is there's an 80% chance Biden's EC votes fall between ~ 275 to 425. That tends to be the more important and useful information, but that's the thing with statistics, they're not very intuitive. We like simple numbers. What % chance do you think he would attribute to the EC vote being precisely 349?
If you want one number, the popular vote might be better.
I'm willing to forgive a +/- 78 point margin of error
Who are we talking about now? I was just mentioning the traditional version of that question.
Clearly the Trump kids are super qualified for all the boards etc theyve been on and the millions they've earned while daddy is Pres is completely kosher of course.
Ah. Recently free your mind made a thread asking about what it means when you invite a girl who has been suggesting she’s down to clown over to your place to do the no pants dance, but she falls asleep once she gets to yours. He made that thread (think it’s called “help me understand women”) just a couple of minutes after posting a comment somewhere else about his wife: so either he made the whole thing up, he’s pretending to be married, or he accidentally admitted to cheating on his wife.
Letting these feckwits get their claws into power is going to have long lasting impacts I fear
Yeah on second thought I probably misspoke there.
At that level of influence it starts to feel like that stupid joke of calling all the different people to marry Bill Gates’ daughter pretending you have X job and then getting the job as Bill Gates son in law
I hope these people are right but I’m not confident enough to feel this just yet
I think all of FL, NC & GA going Democrat is incredibly optimistic. I expect Trump to take Florida one way or another. If PA goes for Biden I think it's over. Trump needs FL and PA to win.
I really hope these optimistic final polls pan out. But I am very hesitant about it to be honest.
If I had a choice Id probably prefer to see TX and GA go blue bc it seems potentially more sustainable after. FL going blue would be grand though.
Bit surprised to see NE as a toss up but I presume that may be bc Lincoln and Omaha are the only bigger towns and especially Omaha area I think is heavily Jesuit is it not? In other words - probably not a lot of Trump love from them.
Latest quinnipiac poll seems pretty good for Biden except that it is rated a B?
Needs to flip, right?. Biden winning but Turtle still being in charge would be a nightmare.
And a couple of others too. If Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin and performs in the desert, I don’t see a path for Trump. He can win Florida, Georgia, NC, Texas and maybe even PA all he wants then. Although I would be surprised to see PA not go with Biden, but you cant count out Republican feckery
If Biden wins and it’s 50-50 (minimum outcome that poll suggests) Kamala gets the deciding vote. Which isn’t exactly ideal for true progressives but way better than rigor tortoise running it
The origin story of the laptop makes no sense at all. Dropping off laptops with sensitive information at a total random place, no protection in place, the store owner alerting the FBI and making his own copies (he did WHAT?!), the blind guy who can see a sticker, and so on. There is no way that all really happened, it's just too improbable. I guess that might also be an argument to give the story credence (who would come up with that shit?), but don't forgot that Giuliani was involved in this. Given the momentous cock-ups that he has 'masterminded', I don't doubt for a second he thought this would work. And either way, in the end, the origin story faded away, and we just have conservative media shouting 'but the laptops!' now.
As for the actual contents - I would think some of it is real, also for the reasons you mentioned. But not all of it from what I've read, and so it becomes hard to trust any of it. And anyway, even the worse stuff just makes Hunter look kinda bad, but not so much his dad. So apart from how the data was obtained, it seems there is nothing illegal or compromising there - or certainly not for Joe Biden.
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And then Kamala removes her mask to reveal Arya Stark, who then removes her mask to reveal Obama? And then he just clicks his fingers, Secret Service run over, and beat the shit out of Mitch?
Thanks a lot guys, such people on Twitter are exactly what I needed.
FFS, my mind had already assumed those were gonna be lost but I'd made myself feel better that PA was looking strong.
This one was supposedly less sure of being thrown out than the one yesterday
I really hope the people making all these predictions don't end up with egg on their faces.
These last few days are taking an age. I can't wait for this sodding election to be over.
I see talk on Arizona being key, but does that state nearly always sway republican?
Is there a chance Biden takes it?
Is there a chance Biden takes it?
Hopefully this calms some nerves on Florida.
Biden is the (slight) favorite in AZ, yeah.
I think it's likely to go blue. Trump shot himself in the foot with the constant bashing of John McCain. Cindy McCain endorsed Biden.
Keep in mind that results are connected. That model assumes that for all those three to go to Trump the polls need to be off in other states as well. That makes Pennsylvania and Nevada unsafe, flips Arizona to Trump and makes Ohio a secure Trump state. It's not likely, which is why the model gives Trump a 10% chance in the first place. He'll need something to go wrong by that magnitude to even have a chance.
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