2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Nate Cohn (NYT)
Nate Silver (538)
Larry Sabato/Kyle Kondik (Crystal Ball)
Sam Wang (PEC)
Michael McDonald (ElectProject)
Dave Wasserman (Redistrict)
Harry Enten (CNN)
Steve Kornacki (NBC)

That’s the main model guys on there, there are also a bunch of state specific guys but I doubt you’d get the granularity of their updates if you aren’t familiar.

Let's hope sam wang doesn't have to eat a bugs on live TV again
 
There is a laptop. Hunter Biden's emails were allegedly found on it. Some of the emails have been confirmed to be genuine by people involved in the email chain. The emails themselves don't show any proof of criminal activity but that doesn't make the story fake.
“It’s definitely real”

second sentence has “allegedly” in it.

come on man...
 
Just as important as the White House, is the Senate. Can't let McConnell in charge any minute longer. Hoping the corrupt kelly loffler, lindsey graham and the spineless susan collins are ousted decisively.
 
“It’s definitely real”

second sentence has “allegedly” in it.

come on man...
You obviously didn't read everything I wrote so why bother continuing the discussion?
Are people really no longer capable of proper critical thinking anymore? I get people want Trump to lose, I do as well but it hasn't made me lose my mind.
I wonder if this kindof thingwill continue after Biden wins if he wins tomorrow. Any negative stroy concerning him dismissed as propaganda or "Russian misinformation" without considering the evidence even being censored by social media if it doesn't fit the proper narrative?
 
Rubio has largely stayed out of the fray since 2016, so he wouldn't be a wounded duck in future political cycles, as the likes of Graham, Jeff Sessions, and a few others will be. The real question is whether candidates in 24 will still run on Trumpism or a post-Trump reversion back to standard conservative politics.

Ben Sasse is obviously making an anti trump play for the GOP. Remains to be seen how successful that canm be.
 
Erm yes it does. The whole thing is complete nonsense but for the sake of argument lets say they did hack Hunter Biden.

They tried to make it sound like these laptops contained some explosive secrets about the criminal behaviour of the Biden family and it revealed feck all. So yes the story is fake.
I agree that the characterisations made about the Post article in conservative media have been silly. But the Post article itself doesn't contain anything outrageous unless you claim that the emails and photos found are fake which neither Hunter or Joe has and as I've said other people involved in some of the emails have confirmed that those emails are genuine.
I'm more than willing to be convinced otherwise if anyone can show me which parts of the Post article were made up.
 
I agree that the characterisations made about the Post article in conservative media have been silly. But the Post article itself doesn't contain anything outrageous unless you claim that the emails and photos found are fake which neither Hunter or Joe has and as I've said other people involved in some of the emails have confirmed that those emails are genuine.
I'm more than willing to be convinced otherwise if anyone can show me which parts of the Post article were made up.

:wenger:

Yeah, Hunter Biden travelled thousands of miles across the county to drop Laptops with sensitve info off at a repair shop ran by a MAGA weirdo nutjob.

The shop owner is legally blind and couldn't see who it was who dropped off the laptops, and no info was left by the person on how to contact them when the laptops were fixed but because of a Beau Biden sticker on the side it had to belong to Hunter !

Shop owner goes through the thousands of emails, contacts the FBI then Giuliani , or Giuliani and then the FBI ( he's claimed both in seperate statements) and all this info just happens to come out 2 weeks before the election.

Oh and he claims he was charging $85 to fix three waterlogged Macs.

But yeah nothing outrageous you're right.
 
You obviously didn't read everything I wrote so why bother continuing the discussion?
Are people really no longer capable of proper critical thinking anymore? I get people want Trump to lose, I do as well but it hasn't made me lose my mind.
I wonder if this kindof thingwill continue after Biden wins if he wins tomorrow. Any negative stroy concerning him dismissed as propaganda or "Russian misinformation" without considering the evidence even being censored by social media if it doesn't fit the proper narrative?
What the hell haha. Did you have that little speech prepared or something. When did I say anything about Russia or social media? I’m simply saying categorically stating that something is true and then pointing to allegations as ‘proof’-ESPECIALLY on a story with so much uncertainty, so little independent verification being made, so much (typical) bluster...and then to claim you’re the lone bastion of critical thought? Surely critical thought would dictate holding off on saying such a story is definitely true?

based on your posts in this thread I don’t think you’re a bad guy*, but geez, this is about 2 steps away from “you’re all sheeple” level shit. I’m not the guy to be going after on this line anyway: most of my job is nonpartisan ‘critical thought.’ And I am far from a DNC superfan. Maybe, just maybe, I’ve noticed you’re blurting shit out.

*Although you did once pretend/accidentally admit you were cheating on your wife
 
:wenger:

Yeah, Hunter Biden traveled thousands of miles across the county to drop Laptops with sensitive info off at a repair shop ran by a MAGA weirdo nutjob.

The shop owner is legally blind and couldn't see who it was who dropped off the laptops, and no info was left by the person on how to contact them when the laptops were fixed but because of a Beau Biden sticker on the side it had to belong to Hunter !

Shop owner goes through the thousands of emails, contacts the FBI then Giuliani , or Giuliani and then the FBI ( he's claimed both in separate statements) and all this info just happens to come out 2 weeks before the election.

Oh and he claims he was charging $85 to fix three waterlogged Macs.

But yeah nothing outrageous you're right.
The Post article simply states how the shop owner claims he came to be in possession of the laptop. Were they supposed to lie? If they were going to lie, don't you think they would have come up with something better than that?

As regards to the timing of the release, of course there's no doubt Giuliani timed this to coincide with the election just like the Access Hollywood tape last time round. Still doens't make the story fake.

If at least Hunter came out and said those emails and pictures are fake, they're not genuine, I could understand the pearl clutching but he's said nothing. And others have confirmed that some of the emails were real.
 
The Post article simply states how the shop owner claims he came to be in possession of the laptop. Were they supposed to lie? If they were going to lie, don't you think they would have come up with something better than that?

As regards to the timing of the release, of course there's no doubt Giuliani timed this to coincide with the election just like the Access Hollywood tape last time round. Still doens't make the story fake.

If at least Hunter came out and said those emails and pictures are fake, they're not genuine, I could understand the pearl clutching but he's said nothing. And others have confirmed that some of the emails were real.

There's no point arguing with you.

Luckily most people seemed to realise this story was a load of shite and it didn't gain any real traction outside of Fox news and right wing weirdos.
 
What the hell haha. Did you have that little speech prepared or something. When did I say anything about Russia or social media? I’m simply saying categorically stating that something is true and then pointing to allegations as ‘proof’-ESPECIALLY on a story with so much uncertainty, so little independent verification being made, so much (typical) bluster...and then to claim you’re the lone bastion of critical thought? Surely critical thought would dictate holding off on saying such a story is definitely true?

based on your posts in this thread I don’t think you’re a bad guy*, but geez, this is about 2 steps away from “you’re all sheeple” level shit. I’m not the guy to be going after on this line anyway: most of my job is nonpartisan ‘critical thought.’ And I am far from a DNC superfan. Maybe, just maybe, I’ve noticed you’re blurting shit out.

*Although you did once pretend/accidentally admit you were cheating on your wife
Surely the "proof" are the emails, pictures and supenoa that the Post presented? That's the only debate to be had surely?
And if they're fake why haven't those concerned said so? Why have others come forward to admit some of the emails are genuine? That doesn't count as independent verification? When the people cc'd in the emails say yes the email is real?

As for the second part, no surprise a "nonpartisan critical thinker" like yourself resorts to character assasination that actually discussing the issue at hand. What does whether I'm a good guy or not have anything to do with whether or not the Post article is true?
 
Coming out and denying bullshit allegations can often be perceived as the wrong thing to do. It kind of gives them credibility and more exposure when they don't deserve it. It's better to completely ignore them and not lower yourself to the bullshit.

Also, it's so obvious they can't find shit on Joe so they go after his son who has well documented issues. The desperation is palpable.
 
Coming out and denying bullshit allegations can often be perceived as the wrong thing to do. It kind of gives them credibility and more exposure when they don't deserve it. It's better to completely ignore them and not lower yourself to the bullshit.

Also, it's so obvious they can't find shit on Joe so they go after his son who has well documented issues. The desperation is palpable.

Correct, it goes back to the old "cheat on your wife" question, like:

"@freeurmind, are you ready to admit to cheating on your wife?"

There is not answer that makes you look good.
 
Quoting an article from Nate Silver on accuracy of polls has me totally convinced :wenger:

Kidding aside, I think two factors have rapidly made polling more difficult recently - the obsolescence of landline phones and the current heated political climate. The former makes getting a representative sample increasingly hard, the latter increases uncertainty on the accuracy of results. Given cancel climate and toxicity online you won't get many people to own up to what they truly believe.

I hope Trump loses, but I'm less certain of that outcome than what polls seem to suggest.

It's not about Nate Silver's commentary, but about the data. He has data on exactly the thing you're talking about and we can measure its impact. Telephone research has become much more expensive and significantly less representative year after year this century, and yet telephone research still consistently produces the most accurate results, and we can measure the accuracy of political polls in a very straightforward way: what did they predict, and how often were they right. If you want to inject a bit of science into the equation because you think political polls lack that science, then it's using the scientific method to test your hypotheses against the existing data. And in this case we have a lot of data. Just repeating those hypotheses while ignoring the data is quite close to the opposite of science.

But undoubtedly this is a weird election and there's reason to be wary.
 
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The Post article simply states how the shop owner claims he came to be in possession of the laptop. Were they supposed to lie? If they were going to lie, don't you think they would have come up with something better than that?

As regards to the timing of the release, of course there's no doubt Giuliani timed this to coincide with the election just like the Access Hollywood tape last time round. Still doens't make the story fake.

If at least Hunter came out and said those emails and pictures are fake, they're not genuine, I could understand the pearl clutching but he's said nothing. And others have confirmed that some of the emails were real.
You keep saying "The Post". That's funny.
 
It's not about Nate Silver's commentary, but about the data. He has data on exactly the thing you're talking about and we can measure its impact. Telephone research has become much more expensive and significantly less representative year after year this century, and yet telephone research still consistently produces the most accurate results, and we can measure the accuracy of political polls in a very straightforward way: what did they predict, and how often were they right. If you want to inject a bit of science into the equation because you think political polls lack that science, then it's using the scientific method to test your hypotheses against the existing data. And in this case we have a lot of data. Just repeating those hypotheses while ignoring the data is quite close to the opposite of science.

Nate Silver predicts 349 EC votes for Mr. Biden and 189 for Mr. Trump, let's see in a few days how accurate that prediction is.
 
Surely the "proof" are the emails, pictures and supenoa that the Post presented? That's the only debate to be had surely?
And if they're fake why haven't those concerned said so? Why have others come forward to admit some of the emails are genuine? That doesn't count as independent verification? When the people cc'd in the emails say yes the email is real?

As for the second part, no surprise a "nonpartisan critical thinker" like yourself resorts to character assasination that actually discussing the issue at hand. What does whether I'm a good guy or not have anything to do with whether or not the Post article is true?
Thing is, what even is the Hunter story, even if there is one? That someone used his name and connections to acquire influence and positions for which he lacked qualifications? I'm sure senior White House adviser Ivanka Trump strongly objects to such blatant nepotism. She probably even talked about it with her White House advisor husband whose previous experience was, um, real estate.
 
He's another who could run. Same with Cotton, DeSantis, Rick Scott, Tim Scott, Josh Hawley etc.
Larry Hogan likely to run in 2024. Not sure how he’d do in the primary but would be a nasty opponent for a centrist democrat unless the economy is booming in 2024
 
Thing is, what even is the Hunter story, even if there is one? That someone used his name and connections to acquire influence and positions for which he lacked qualifications?
Didn’t we know this already? Hunter had no place being in that position
 
Even if Hunter Biden's story is real, the corruption on the other side is much, much worse. At the end of the day, the vote is not about Joe Biden - it is a referendum on Trump.
 
Where did he make this prediction?

His own website

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That's not a great example, since saying no is infinitely better than saying yes.

"Have you stopped beating your wife?"
Ah That’s a bit much to be fair. I don’t even mean this to be funny-“have you stopped cheating on your wife” would feel much more acceptable given his previous thread and still prove your point, wife beating is a whole other thing, whether he’s even married or not I don’t think that should be implied
 
Didn’t we know this already? Hunter had no place being in that position

He pretty obviously used his connection with his dad to get ahead, but he’s also a lawyer and perfectly qualified to sit on company boards. The GOP have been trying to make him sound totally unqualified for any of his jobs, which is wildly inaccurate and just part of the smear.
 
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