2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Raoul said:
+ 3 in Texas for a Dem Presidential candidate is still pretty good, especially given that Hillary lost by 9 in 2016.
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Definitely, that's pretty encouraging! At least enough to perhaps make TX interesting to keep an eye on come election night.
 
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Raoul said:
+ 3 in Texas for a Dem Presidential candidate is still pretty good, especially given that Hillary lost by 9 in 2016.
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Hell Yea. Not entirely surprising given turnout and the likes of Kansas, Arizona and Georgia polling. But still great to see.

ps. +3 is a better poll for Biden than +10 really. You’d write off +10 as an outlier as it’s not in the realms of possibility, but +3 is very plausible.
 
owlo said:
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Hell Yea. Not entirely surprising given turnout and the likes of Kansas, Arizona and Georgia polling. But still great to see.

ps. +3 is a better poll for Biden than +10 really. You’d write off +10 as an outlier as it’s not in the realms of possibility, but +3 is very plausible.
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Excellent point.
 
MTF said:
Apparently it varies by country, per the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/27/upshot/election-results-timing.html
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WI_Red said:
Posted this earlier. Really useful resource. According to the map they begin counting early votes before election day.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/politics/mail-in-voting/
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Thanks both, much appreciated.

I was just thinking if this is the case, then Biden could be called as winning Texas on election night. That would prevent any and all Trump legal shenanigans.
 
Frosty said:
Thanks both, much appreciated.

I was just thinking if this is the case, then Biden could be called as winning Texas on election night. That would prevent any and all Trump legal shenanigans.
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if Biden were to win Texas, that would be cause for some major major celebrations...
 
Frosty said:
Thanks both, much appreciated.

I was just thinking if this is the case, then Biden could be called as winning Texas on election night. That would prevent any and all Trump legal shenanigans.
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The only chance for Darth Snort to try something is if it comes down to a single state. Anything more than and it seems unfeasible he can make even remotely credible case.
 
Frosty said:
Thanks both, much appreciated.

I was just thinking if this is the case, then Biden could be called as winning Texas on election night. That would prevent any and all Trump legal shenanigans.
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If he wins Texas or Georgia, it’s over
 
owlo said:
FL polls are thankfully now more in line with my analysis and predictions here of the last few days. That was a bit clutch. Trash pollsters aren't good for nerves.



That's a shame. (not that you disagree, but that he's not respected in the legal sphere) - I assume Roberts is broadly respected? What of the other conservatives? (I know RBG respected Scalia, but nothing else)
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Scalia was a funny one. He got voted in 98-0, which is mad looking back at now (RBG has similar numbers) though I believe that was hot on the heels of Rehnquist’s CJ appointment being hotly contested and there wasn’t much stomach for another fight. Despite his very conservative leanings he should be more respected, generally speaking, by the left than he is: he was undeniably a great writer, and if you compare him to another originalist like Thomas who’s just...a joke, one can see that. One major bone I have to pick with Scalia is regarding the Commerce Clause and Obamacare. Scalia was extremely knowledgable re CC and I think his concurrence in Raich is his peak on the matter. Unfortunately for him, following that precedent would have required him to upheld Obamacare (which legally is messy, so, so, messy): so he flipped all of a sudden with a pretty flimsy reasoning, and no longer stood by Wickard as precedent, which he had done in Raich.

Perhaps an unpopular but I never had time for Kennedy: I thought he was a poor writer. I was happy when his decisions favoured my political persuasions, sure, who wouldn’t, but I can’t deny his reasoning was often foggy and convoluted. With that in mind I have more time for Roberts and most in my circle do: he had gradually been moving to the centre anyway, and as he became the swing vote (for a bit) he understood what that meant. I also think he respects the significance of his role as Chief Justice. A lot of that is subjective sure, but I think that’s the case. Massive cop out re gerrymandering though
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Alito is brutal. I don’t know what else to add. Partisan hack. Seems to hate the first amendment, which I love pointing out the my conservative uncle who knows a lot less than he thinks about all this.

Gorsuch is quite highly regarded as a writer and thinker: his positions on labour law are absolute dick, however, but his stance re tribal rights is great stuff. Shouldn’t have made it to the SC when he did, poor Merrick Garland, but far and away the best appointment under Trump even if what lead to his appointment was a national and constitutional disgrace.

lastly Kavanaugh, he has a career of decisions I disagree with, but I don’t know what he’s at re the election cases: the Vermont gaffe is embarrassing, and he’s going back to some dangerous shit in Rehnquist’s Bush v Gore concurrence (and quoting lines from pieces that disagree with him)which couldn’t get a majority even then. Actually, the fact that he, a conservative, is harking back to that fecking case with its “disclaimer” of “this is to only apply just this one time” would almost be funny if it wasn’t so serious

As for the libs, Kagan is arguably the leading intellectual, though Sotomayor is now certainly the most passionate. It took a while to work Kagan out given she took a long time to write many separate opinions, but she’s probably the easiest for a non-lawyer to read without missing out on something either through over complication or over simplification; I believe her academic background helps in that regard. Re Breyer, as I am not an originalist I appreciate his frequent criticisms of the concept.
 
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If Trump loses Texas, it's over for him. I wonder how he could lose? I thought Texas was heavily red (other than Austin).
 
Fridge chutney said:
If Trump loses Texas, it's over for him. I wonder how he could lose? I thought Texas was heavily red (other than Austin).
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Texas as been changing for years now and will continue to do so. People are moving there from other states, and they're bringing their liberal views with them, plus there is a growing voter registration of Latino, Asian, Black voters, while there is a decline in white voters. It may not go blue in this cycle, but eventually it will.
 
Charlie Foley said:
Scalia was a funny one. He got voted in 98-0, which is mad looking back at now (RBG has similar numbers) though I believe that was hot on the heels of Rehnquist’s CJ appointment being hotly contested and there wasn’t much stomach for another fight. Despite his very conservative leanings he should be more respected, generally speaking, by the left than he is: he was undeniably a great writer, and if you compare him to another originalist like Thomas who’s just...a joke, one can see that. One major bone I have to pick with Scalia is regarding the Commerce Clause and Obamacare. Scalia was extremely knowledgable re CC and I think his concurrence in Raich is his peak on the matter. Unfortunately for him, following that precedent would have required him to upheld Obamacare (which legally is messy, so, so, messy): so he flipped all of a sudden with a pretty flimsy reasoning, and no longer stood by Wickard as precedent, which he had done in Raich.

Perhaps an unpopular but I never had time for Kennedy: I thought he was a poor writer. I was happy when his decisions favoured my political persuasions, sure, who wouldn’t, but I can’t deny his reasoning was often foggy and convoluted. With that in mind I have more time for Roberts and most in my circle do: he had gradually been moving to the centre anyway, and as he became the swing vote (for a bit) he understood what that meant. I also think he respects the significance of his role as Chief Justice. A lot of that is subjective sure, but I think that’s the case. Massive cop out re gerrymandering though
.
Alito is brutal. I don’t know what else to add. Partisan hack. Seems to hate the first amendment, which I love pointing out the my conservative uncle who knows a lot less than he thinks about all this.

Gorsuch is quite highly regarded as a writer and thinker: his positions on labour law are absolute dick, however, but his stance re tribal rights is great stuff. Shouldn’t have made it to the SC when he did, poor Merrick Garland, but far and away the best appointment under Trump even if what lead to his appointment was a national and constitutional disgrace.

lastly Kavanaugh, he has a career of decisions I disagree with, but I don’t know what he’s at re the election cases: the Vermont gaffe is embarrassing, and he’s going back to some dangerous shit in Rehnquist’s Bush v Gore concurrence (and quoting lines from pieces that disagree with him)which couldn’t get a majority even then. Actually, the fact that he, a conservative, is harking back to that fecking case with its “disclaimer” of “this is to only apply just this one time” would almost be funny if it wasn’t so serious

As for the libs, Kagan is arguably the leading intellectual, though Sotomayor is now certainly the most passionate. It took a while to work Kagan out given she took a long time to write many separate opinions, but she’s probably the easiest for a non-lawyer to read without missing out on something either through over complication or over simplification; I believe her academic background helps in that regard. Re Breyer, as I am not an originalist I appreciate his frequent criticisms of the concept.
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brilliant stuff, thanks. I read a summary of the freezing truck driver case and wrote gorsuch off as a textualist hypocrit.

do you see Roberts voting with the majority always now in order to write the opinions as narrowly as possible on key subjects?

Drifter said:
Texas as been changing for years now and will continue to do so. People are moving there from other states, and they're bringing their liberal views with them, plus there is a growing voter registration of Latino, Asian, Black voters, while there is a decline in white voters. It may not go blue in this cycle, but eventually it will.
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seen this media narrative loads (so not having a go at you). I find it both lazy and inaccurate
 
Charlie Foley said:
Scalia was a funny one. He got voted in 98-0, which is mad looking back at now (RBG has similar numbers) though I believe that was hot on the heels of Rehnquist’s CJ appointment being hotly contested and there wasn’t much stomach for another fight. Despite his very conservative leanings he should be more respected, generally speaking, by the left than he is: he was undeniably a great writer, and if you compare him to another originalist like Thomas who’s just...a joke, one can see that. One major bone I have to pick with Scalia is regarding the Commerce Clause and Obamacare. Scalia was extremely knowledgable re CC and I think his concurrence in Raich is his peak on the matter. Unfortunately for him, following that precedent would have required him to upheld Obamacare (which legally is messy, so, so, messy): so he flipped all of a sudden with a pretty flimsy reasoning, and no longer stood by Wickard as precedent, which he had done in Raich.

Perhaps an unpopular but I never had time for Kennedy: I thought he was a poor writer. I was happy when his decisions favoured my political persuasions, sure, who wouldn’t, but I can’t deny his reasoning was often foggy and convoluted. With that in mind I have more time for Roberts and most in my circle do: he had gradually been moving to the centre anyway, and as he became the swing vote (for a bit) he understood what that meant. I also think he respects the significance of his role as Chief Justice. A lot of that is subjective sure, but I think that’s the case. Massive cop out re gerrymandering though
.
Alito is brutal. I don’t know what else to add. Partisan hack. Seems to hate the first amendment, which I love pointing out the my conservative uncle who knows a lot less than he thinks about all this.

Gorsuch is quite highly regarded as a writer and thinker: his positions on labour law are absolute dick, however, but his stance re tribal rights is great stuff. Shouldn’t have made it to the SC when he did, poor Merrick Garland, but far and away the best appointment under Trump even if what lead to his appointment was a national and constitutional disgrace.

lastly Kavanaugh, he has a career of decisions I disagree with, but I don’t know what he’s at re the election cases: the Vermont gaffe is embarrassing, and he’s going back to some dangerous shit in Rehnquist’s Bush v Gore concurrence (and quoting lines from pieces that disagree with him)which couldn’t get a majority even then. Actually, the fact that he, a conservative, is harking back to that fecking case with its “disclaimer” of “this is to only apply just this one time” would almost be funny if it wasn’t so serious

As for the libs, Kagan is arguably the leading intellectual, though Sotomayor is now certainly the most passionate. It took a while to work Kagan out given she took a long time to write many separate opinions, but she’s probably the easiest for a non-lawyer to read without missing out on something either through over complication or over simplification; I believe her academic background helps in that regard. Re Breyer, as I am not an originalist I appreciate his frequent criticisms of the concept.
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Thank you for this. This falls in line mostly with what my sister (a corporate attorney) has said. I will need to read her your take on Alito as she will get a kick out of it (very in line with her thoughts). He take on Kavanaugh, once you get past the disgusting nature of the man, is that he is also a partisan hack. She cited his flip flopping back and forth on whether a president can be sued from Clinton to Bush to Obama to Trump. I bet you can guess when he flipped and when he flopped.
 
Demographic isn’t really the key issue with Texas, R’s edge in registration and the brutal voting restrictions are. It’s a non-voting state, so the latest developments are encouraging.

Personally, I think it will be reverse Nevada for a couple more elections before turning blue, where the edge in registration and the pool of committed likely voters help Rs build a slim but unassailable lead. However, if Biden is truly winning +12 then statistically it’s possible, those votes can’t all come from CA.
 
Fridge chutney said:
If Trump loses Texas, it's over for him. I wonder how he could lose? I thought Texas was heavily red (other than Austin).
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If he is to lose it it might as well be the biggest best greatest finest most powerful loss ever ever ever. No other Republican could lose Texas! Trust me, Bush tried, they knew Bush, still couldn't lose! Lying Ted tried it, couldn't do it. No one knows as much about losses!
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Demographic isn’t really the key issue with Texas, R’s edge in registration and the brutal voting restrictions are. It’s a non-voting state, so the latest developments are encouraging.

Personally, I think it will be reverse Nevada for a couple more elections before turning blue, where the edge in registration and the pool of committed likely voters help Rs build a slim but unassailable lead. However, if Biden is truly winning +12 then statistically it’s possible, those votes can’t all come from CA.
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This is the root of Abbott and his suppression. He absolutely cannot afford for the Texas legislature to go blue. This means depressing turnout as much as he can, as often as he can.
 
How many states aren’t actually in play for Biden at this point?
 
4/9 odds for Biden look far too low based on this thread, and 538.

Am I wrong? Would anyone else jump in?
 
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