This potentially deserves its own thread. I'd still be inclined to argue that they aren't directly comparable, but the long term damage both have done is quite interesting. Especially as we have the benefit of hindsight with Bush but not Trump yet.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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To a degree but I think folks like Rumsfeld, Rove, Cheney and others were the true power in those administrations. W let himself be managed it seems.
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He probably bought a Snickers at a shop once in 1994 and thinks that the sales tax is more than enough to pay into the system for a lifetime.
Probably does need another thread but I think you're right. Nobody knows how Trump would've reacted to a wide scale terror attack on US soil or having the opportunity to start an illegal war.
But the way they've handled the pandemics of their eras paint a different. At least Bush listened to experts (sometimes). The next few years will be interesting.
Bush was an easily led, intellectual midget who - despite all his failings - I genuinely believe was always trying to do the right thing. He ended up being a useful idiot for the genuinely evil people.
Trump is an intellectual midget who is evil, cares only about himself and lacks several traits of human beings such empathy, compassion and self-awareness. The only reason he hasn't done 10x as much damage as Bush is because he's too stupid and lazy to do anything but watch TV all day.
Trump is an intellectual midget who is evil, cares only about himself and lacks several traits of human beings such empathy, compassion and self-awareness. The only reason he hasn't done 10x as much damage as Bush is because he's too stupid and lazy to do anything but watch TV all day.
Issac Asimov: “has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge. ... '”
I wonder what those millions refer to then... Calories?
Trump can only wish he claims to be the Father to most of Europe, Ghengis got around abit the dirty boy and there's not enough Viagra in this world for Trump.
Trump as now resorted to video in his rally. And it does not look flattering on Biden. How much may be edited is another thing.
I think the parallel for Bush for covid is hurricane Katrina. Bungled the preparations despite warnings, bungled the response, allowed vigilante violence, and made the situation worse because the governor and mayor were Dems. All of which sounds familiar I think. He also initially dealt with the Wall St collapse in 2008 and his initiall response was even more of a corporate handout than the covid package.
I also disagree that he listened to experts - the Kyoto climate agreement was broken by his administration.
Most likely that Trump like 99% of presidents would have gone into Afghanistan.
2003 Trump = pro Iraq, 2004 = anti, 2016 = anti, so it depends on his mood and who he had as Sec of State and NSA and CIA director at that moment.
He was president, the son of a president and CIA director, and he had family and business ties with people who benefited immensely from his decisions. Cheney = Haliburton is well known, but the Bush family wasn't new to oil or to the Saudi royal family. He knew himself how sketchy the intel for the Iraq war was, not just because he was the president and so he must have known, but he commented on it privately too.
http://blowback.show/
Isn't he known for over exaggerating?
That's fair enough. I think during the Bush era I was busy trying to look at boobs on the internet.
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W’s public image as a bumbling buffoon is a bit exaggerated. He is fairly well read by private accounts and polished enough to run 2 successful presidential campaign in an age when gaffes still meant something. There seems to be an inclination to absolve him of the vices of his administration just because Cheney was domineering and evil. It’s not mutually exclusive.
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yup, and then someone would pick up the phone and your last five minutes were wasted.The impact of Trump's abdication of American hegemony will be felt for generations to come.
This would be my argument, along with his emboldening of rival great powers and weakening of friendly institutions.
Which isn’t completely a bad thing to be fair. Europe needed a kick up the arse when it comes to looking to our own interests instead of expecting the US to do it for us.
Now Europe will have to do it on their own, which they aren't prepared for. Will Europe be able to contain Russia?
China is already flexing its muscles in the absence of America standing strong with its allies.
To be fair, Europe should fecking be able to do it in their own. Even Spain has a larger GDP than Russia. It is a total embarrassment that Europe cannot defend itself from China while having a GDP that is like 20 times bigger.
They are running out of money. Trump has somehow managed to squander nearly 1billion and still run out of money.
I don't think you can make a valid comparison for this yet.
First, Bush was a two-term President while Trump has only had one term.
Second, we've had over a decade to see the consequences of Bush II while we have yet to really unpack all damage Trump has done with COVID response, climate change, empowering dictators from Putin to Kim Jong Ill, empower the far right with both conspiracy theories and fascist economic policies and more.
Third, I think some of what people are blaming "on Bush" is more accurately the fault of the US government in general including Congressional Republicans and Democrats that went along with it (like HRC).
And just to go back to point 1, give Donnny another 4 year and I think the long-term damage would be far worse globally than with Bush II.
His campaign has been a fecking mess.
Or maybe they're just fully relying on these Trafelgar(?) polls and assume Florida is in the pocket already anyway!
Probably the squandering 1 billion is what lead them to run out of money
Cheney was president by proxy
No doubt we will see stories in a year or two suggesting much of the money was somehow redirected into the Trump organization.
The 538 averages show Trump surging there now, so they are probably banking on winning there and moving money elsewhere.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/
Oh Florida - you truly are the silliest of states.
That's not good. Isn't Florida usually the decider?
Not necessarily, Trump needs FL more than Biden. Biden have other paths to the White House while Trump realistically doesn’t.
That orange fecker is going to lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 2016 and still win the EC, isn't he?
It usually plays a big part in getting to 270. Although this time may be a bit different since Trump may lose any of Arizona, Georgia, or NC, which would completely negate the value of winning FL.
His best chance is to hold serve in FL, GA, & NC, and somehow sneak a win in PA, which would put him at 272.
Calm down. There's literally nothing new to suggest Florida going red. Models are simply very sensitive to polls so the media can't accuse them of not getting it wrong.
I get using China as an example, but why Russia? Russia is not in the ascendancy in any way. They have a failing economy and a shrinking population. As for China flexing its muscles, that is undeniably true. But of the two, the US is still the only country with military bases in half the world's countries and overt and covert interventions across the world the past few decades.
Chinese influence is nefarious, which is why Europe needs to stand together. But we also need to stand together against a potential far right-dominated US. Trump's probable defeat may defeat Trumpism, but Trumpism is a symptom of crypto-fascism, not the cause of it.
I would hope models are 95% based on polls in the first place, otherwise what's their value? It's hardly a cop-out.
16K deaths in Florida due to Covid, insane how its still in play.
Most of the polls driving the shift for Trump are from GOP hack pollsters who are acting suspiciously this cycle. Not a single B+ a greater poll in the past several days to support the trend. It's all nonsense to please the orange man in the WH. The YouGov poll is probably the only reputable poll in the recent average and I believe @owlo may not rate them either?
Basing a large part of your model on polls and hypersensitivity to outliers are two different kettles of fish.
Yea, it's pretty crazy how you only need to look at some of them for 30 seconds and realise they mean nothing. Can't blame the trackers for being sensitive though after 2016.
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