2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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berbatrick said:
Am puting off some work past 2 days so I had some time to dig into the data. Looked at Yougov from August 9, 2016, the most recent Yougov, and the 2016 exit poll. Looked at the swings within each group. THe problem for the 2016 Yougov was the large number of DK/3rd parties (especially Gary Johnson, who was at 10% most of which seems to have gone to Trump in November), so I excluded all that and looked at the 2-person vote only.

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tl;dr - Clinton maxed out what a centrist can do among women, black, and young people. The swing is coming from men not women. Ths data from Hispanics is inconsistent. The age trend is weirder than I thought, the boomers are equal to the overall swing mostly, the big change is 45-64. OTOH, 30-45 are stagnant or leaving the party in significant numbers.

The most consistent effect is people earning over 100k, going from a roughly even split to 60% Biden.

Specualting - Bernie would be doing much worse with 45-64 and much better with 30-44, marginally worse with 65+. Much, much worse with >100k. Marginally better with 18-29, <50k and blacks and hispanics. Overall significanly worse but probably still in the lead.
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Wow, the Biden campaign needs to hire you. Well done.
 
Kentonio said:
It's hardly a surprise, the Democratic party is chock full of people who loudly claim to be progressives but actually have political beliefs akin to Tories.
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I would argue these labels are losing all meaning. One of the so-called progressive leaders, a guy called Ed Markey, who co-wrote the Green New Deal is a 44 year long politician (establishment) who opposed busing and abortion in the 1970s, voted for NAFTA, voted for the Crime Bill, voted for the Patriot Act and voted for the Iraq War. He's currently being challenged by a Kennedy and the left are desperate to keep him in office. Yet this "progressive" has a voting record that Biden got attacked endlessly on. Is Markey given good will because he's got on board with the cool kids and if he's allowed to, why not give a Biden presidency a chance to pursue policies that move the country further left, if not as much as they want right away.
 
Boycott said:
Didn't Bernie Sanders vote for that bill?
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It's exactly opinions like that tweet that totally miss the point that that is not the base at all. It's a vocal and growing minority that gets most of its sentiment from the Dems.

As a center left guy it still boggles my mind that people think that shouting to defund the police is a smart path to go down. It takes it one step too far and is too simplistic. Go to any other country in the world that's predominantly leftist and I doubt you ll find a majority thinking that that would be a smart thing. Restructuring and holding officers to account and lessening the power of the unions to keep those who shouldn't be protected is a far easier road to go down. For starters you d have the support of a lot of the police command groups that are currently just looking at it as a full on offense to their profession. No one wins in that situation. That's exactly one of the reasons imho Harris was picked because she is far more likely to seek out that balance - but this so called "base" will see it as simply not supporting them.

You can't shout the other side is too extreme and to then demand to go in the complete opposite direction and to then wonder why even those in your party aren't fully on board with that when it is obvious most people are just straight up tired of continued polarization.
 
Raoul said:
I hear the folks in JA weren't pleased with her weed comment to Charlamagne.
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TBH, I don't remember. There's been lots of bigging up of her Jamaican heritage since she got the VP nod though. So her popularity is relatively strong here.
 
berbatrick said:
He's been a lot more active in the past few months - he played the biggest role on Feb 29, calling Pete and Amy (and maybe Beto), he gave the big speech at the funeral recently where he talked about policy, and has recently started a podcast with his wife, where they talked about problems like unenthusiastic young voters.
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Well, he has to share a lot of the claim for those unenthusiastic young voters himself.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Newsweek giving print space to a Kamala Harris birther :O Talk about grim.

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Lawyers gonna lawyer. It seems like settled interpretation says she's fine, but this guy disagrees because only he can accurately read the tea leaves, sorry, framer's intent. My reading of his argument is that because her parents weren't American at the moment she was born, even though she was born in the US and therefore able to become a citizen, at her birth moment she was not.

To which I would argue, every single baby that has yet to file for a passport is in the same boat, the bloody freeloaders.

Also, as the first comment on there notes, probably worth mentioning this esteemed lawyer stepped down as Dean to run for AG and lost...to Kamala Harris. Am sure it's unrelated.
 
Beachryan said:
Lawyers gonna lawyer. It seems like settled interpretation says she's fine, but this guy disagrees because only he can accurately read the tea leaves, sorry, framer's intent. My reading of his argument is that because her parents weren't American at the moment she was born, even though she was born in the US and therefore able to become a citizen, at her birth moment she was not.

To which I would argue, every single baby that has yet to file for a passport is in the same boat, the bloody freeloaders.

Also, as the first comment on there notes, probably worth mentioning this esteemed lawyer stepped down as Dean to run for AG and lost...to Kamala Harris. Am sure it's unrelated.
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notable that the chap is also involved with organisations that is trying to purge voters from the electoral role
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Interest_Legal_Foundation
and works against same sex marriage
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Organization_for_Marriage
he also ran as a republican for attorney general in california
so he may not be the most independent and impartial of legal "experts"
 
Beachryan said:
Lawyers gonna lawyer. It seems like settled interpretation says she's fine, but this guy disagrees because only he can accurately read the tea leaves, sorry, framer's intent. My reading of his argument is that because her parents weren't American at the moment she was born, even though she was born in the US and therefore able to become a citizen, at her birth moment she was not.

To which I would argue, every single baby that has yet to file for a passport is in the same boat, the bloody freeloaders.

Also, as the first comment on there notes, probably worth mentioning this esteemed lawyer stepped down as Dean to run for AG and lost...to Kamala Harris. Am sure it's unrelated.
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sun_tzu said:
notable that the chap is also involved with organisations that is trying to purge voters from the electoral role
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Interest_Legal_Foundation
and works against same sex marriage
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Organization_for_Marriage
he also ran as a republican for attorney general in california
so he may not be the most independent and impartial of legal "experts"
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Kinda disappointing he was given the time of day in print media though then, no? This is my point.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Kinda disappointing he was given the time of day in print media though then, no? This is my point.
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Oh absolutely, sorry, it's a disgrace and while I haven't thought about Newsweek in years (it still exists!) I will now judge it harshly. Only silver lining is every comment is basically saying how disgusting it is that they gave this idiot a platform.
 
Drifter said:
kamala-harris-If-we-take-a-show-of-hands-of-those-who-would-like-to-see-more-police-officers-on-the-street-mine-would-shoot-up-status-quo.jpg

Sums up Kamala
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So if she came out tomorrow and said: "I was wrong in 2009, my position has changed as I've seen the way the last decade has played out and my views today reflect this evolution" - would that in any way change your opinion?

I find it exceptionally unsurprising that a politician will have held different views at different times, even diametrically opposing ones.

I spent years believing we could build a midfield around a fit Owen Hargreaves, but now accept that was as likely as fielding a literal unicorn.
 
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Beachryan said:
I spent years believing we could build a midfield around a fit Owen Hargreaves, but now accept that was as likely as fielding a literal unicorn.
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:lol: ... I wasn't quite at that level, but I was always a believer in his eventual comeback that would drive us to new heights.... until he did his hammy during warm-up at Fulham (was it?)
 
Beachryan said:
So if she came out tomorrow and said: "I was wrong in 2009, my position has changed as I've seen the way the last decade has played out and my views today reflect this evolution" - would that in any way change your opinion?

I find it exceptionally unsurprising that a politician will have held different views at different times, even diametrically opposing ones.

I spent years believing we could build a midfield around a fit Owen Hargreaves, but now accept that was as likely as fielding a literal unicorn.
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She has explicitly said she is proud of her record.
 
I think she needs to come out and say why she changed her mind as its a pretty big swing in stance. She could just be pandering for votes in both situations in accordance to the political climate at the time.
 
starman said:
I think she needs to come out and say why she changed her mind as its a pretty big swing in stance. She could just be pandering for votes in both situations in accordance to the political climate at the time.
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I don't know if there would be much pressure on her to speak about this given that Biden is leading in the polls and most Dems don't care about this issue.
 
Raoul said:
I don't know if there would be much pressure on her to speak about this given that Biden is leading in the polls and most Dems don't care about this issue.
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Of course, if she can avoid it the democrats would love it. That's what this election is about, who is the most capable, on both sides, of surviving and coming out the other end relatively unscaved from their sketchy past....
 
starman said:
Of course, if she can avoid it the democrats would love it. That's what this election is about, who is the most capable, on both sides, of surviving and coming out the other end relatively unscaved from their sketchy past....
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Ultimately its all about winning and getting into office, so both sides are going to do whats necessary to maximize their chances of winning, which means speaking about things that benefit them as well as those that delegitimize the opposition .
 
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Raoul said:
Ultimately its all about winning and getting into office, so both sides are going to whats necessary to maximize their chances of winning, which means speaking about things that benefit them as well as those that delegitimize the opposition .
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Yes, but from the public's point of view for a lot of people it will be who is the least intolerable
 
starman said:
I think she needs to come out and say why she changed her mind as its a pretty big swing in stance. She could just be pandering for votes in both situations in accordance to the political climate at the time.
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Pretty easy for her to explain away. People might feel safer with more visible police presence, but not actually be safer.
 
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