2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Raoul said:
I don't think it would matter in the end. There could be a battalion of anonymous newcomers who join the primary race, but they would quickly run out of money once it becomes apparent that this is a 2 or 3 horse race among the likes of Sanders, Biden, and Clinton. I personally don't know if she will run but if she did, it would definitely shake out most of the otherwise viable centrist contenders like Booker, Harris, and a few others.
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Look how much money Beto raised by going non-corporate PAC. Beto for one could easily compete with any of those three if he wanted. I don't think money is a factor if someone catches fire like Beto or Ocasio-Cortez. The window of opportunity is open for genuine, trustworthy candidates on the left.

I feel like the people saying Clinton has a chance are the same who were saying Kerry would win in 2004.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Look how much money Beto raised by going non-corporate PAC. Beto for one could easily compete with any of those three if he wanted. I don't think money is a factor if someone catches fire like Beto or Ocasio-Cortez. The window of opportunity is open for genuine, trustworthy candidates on the left.

I feel like the people saying Clinton has a chance are the same who were saying Kerry would win in 2004.
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Yes Beto is obviously in a different category than the other contenders since he has proven he can outperform other Dems in red state areas. He's the only candidate out there who is capable of pulling a 2008 Obama in 2020.
 
Just out today. I would expect Beto to start rising sharply in the coming months once his name recognition goes national.

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Crosstabs from that Morning Consult poll -
1. Bernie's age trend holds. Leads 29-20 among 18-30 yr olds. Does terribly among 55-64 yr olds.
2. Race: Still weak among African Americans, trailing Biden 28-15; strong among Hispanics, leading 22-17. "Neutral" among whites (trailing Biden).
3. There's not much income-based difference between Bernie and Biden, but rich people (>100k) hate Bernie and love Kamala Harris.
4. There's a lot more which I haven't gone into (and there don't seem to be strong trends for), but I thought it was interesting that he led among 2016 non-voters 20-16.

There are no numbers among independent voters or vs Trump H2H numbers.


https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000167-0957-def8-a56f-89d7a3f30000
pgs 148-149
 
berbatrick said:
Crosstabs from that Morning Consult poll -
1. Bernie's age trend holds. Leads 29-20 among 18-30 yr olds. Does terribly among 55-64 yr olds.
2. Race: Still weak among African Americans, trailing Biden 28-15; strong among Hispanics, leading 22-17. "Neutral" among whites (trailing Biden).
3. There's not much income-based difference between Bernie and Biden, but rich people (>100k) hate Bernie and love Kamala Harris.
4. There's a lot more which I haven't gone into (and there don't seem to be strong trends for), but I thought it was interesting that he led among 2016 non-voters 20-16.

There are no numbers among independent voters or vs Trump H2H numbers.


https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000167-0957-def8-a56f-89d7a3f30000
pgs 148-149
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I'd imagine he would want to invert those numbers since the younger demos don't vote as much as the oldies.

I'm also surprised that he has such weak numbers among African Americans.
 
Raoul said:
I met someone who is fairly progressive the other day, who I thought may be interested in Sanders or Warren. Instead, he talked about how Booker is his number one choice. Unexpected to say the least.
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I was at a conference last year where Booker spoke and was ‘endorsed ‘ by the Hip Hop caucus so I’m less surprised. Also progressives in America will support a black centrist, see Obama, though Obama campaigned on the left and governed in the centre.
 
Charlie Foley said:
I was at a conference last year where Booker spoke and was ‘endorsed ‘ by the Hip Hop caucus so I’m less surprised. Also progressives in America will support a black centrist, see Obama, though Obama campaigned on the left and governed in the centre.
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I'm of two minds as to whether progressives would support Booker. The main problem obviously being that he is deeply tied to big corporate money which is one of the things progressives hate the most.
 
Raoul said:
I'd imagine he would want to invert those numbers since the younger demos don't vote as much as the oldies.

I'm also surprised that he has such weak numbers among African Americans.
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His whole base is young people, I don't think he can just invert it. And there's a reason why M4A, free tuition. and "democratic socialism"appeal more to a post cold-war generation.

Also, I'm not that surprised at his weakness. In fact, 15% among black people given 19% overall isn't awful, its far far better than his relative 2016 numbers. What I don't understand there is Biden's exceptionally good showing (or why Biden is so weak among Hispanics).

edit - just realised biden is 28 not 38 among blacks, i take it back. the race numbers are roughly in line with the overall numbers except for hispanics.
 
Raoul said:
I'm of two minds as to whether progressives would support Booker. The main problem obviously being that he is deeply tied to big corporate money which is obviously one of the things progressives hate the most.
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The likes of @Eboue sure won’t. Depends who else is in the field of course, he won’t steal the progressive wing from Bernie for sure
 
berbatrick said:
His whole base is young people, I don't think he can just invert it. And there's a reason why M4A, free tuition. and "democratic socialism"appeal even more to a post cold-war generation.

Also, I'm not that surprised at his weakness. In fact, 15% among black people given 19% overall isn't awful, its far far better than his relative 2016 numbers. What I don't understand there is Biden's exceptionally good showing (or why Biden is so weak among Hispanics).
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Could the Hispanic number be fallout from Obama deporter in chief?
 
berbatrick said:
His whole base is young people, I don't think he can just invert it. And there's a reason why M4A, free tuition. and "democratic socialism"appeal more to a post cold-war generation.

Also, I'm not that surprised at his weakness. In fact, 15% among black people given 19% overall isn't awful, its far far better than his relative 2016 numbers. What I don't understand there is Biden's exceptionally good showing (or why Biden is so weak among Hispanics).
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I think Biden's good showing comes from name recognition and having moderately good favorables. There is a contingent of people out there who don't think Sanders is feasible or realistic and are instead defaulting to Biden as the leader.
 
Red Dreams said:
There is no difference between Hillary and Trump.

Neither believes in anything.

But both will say Anything to get elected.
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Even if that were true, which it strictly isn't, then that would just mean that one person would say anything while passing Republican policies, while the other would say anything while passing Democratic policies. I know which one I prefer.
 
niMic said:
Even if that were true, which it strictly isn't, then that would just mean that one person would say anything while passing Republican policies, while the other would say anything while passing Democratic policies. I know which one I prefer.
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To simply take sides like in football is what brought Trump.
Leaders need to speak to the truth.
 
Raoul said:
I think Biden's good showing comes from name recognition and having moderately good favorables. There is a contingent of people out there who don't think Sanders is feasible or realistic and are instead defaulting to Biden as the leader.
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I'm surprised posters took issue with me claiming Biden has a strong chance in the primaries simply due to the perception of electability. It's clearly a vital factor in the build-up, which he has in his favor.

If Hillary does run I hope he does as well, given the chance it somehow splits the establishment vote and allows a progressive candidate in.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
I'm surprised posters took issue with me claiming Biden has a strong chance in the primaries simply due to the perception of electability. It's clearly a vital factor in the build-up, which he has in his favor.

If Hillary does run I hope he does as well, given the chance it somehow splits the establishment vote and allows a progressive candidate in.
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That could very likely happen. It would be hard to see any scenario where neither of them are running.
 
They might as well endorse Moyes.
 
Wait this isn’t a joke? :lol:

Hillary feckin Clinton. The only candidate not able to galvanise the progressive vote in an election where the opponent is possibly the worst in living history. Well then, Trump 2020 it is then.
 
I think Biden's numbers are so high primarily because of the huge Obama-Biden love in. He had several years of being media portrayed as lovable uncle Joe, the President's comedy sidekick. Put him under the campaign microscope and hit him with lots of questions about why he heartily supported legislation to limit the protection of people going bankrupt from credit card companies, and prioritized their debts over child support repayments, and then let's see how those numbers hold up.
 
I think the early numbers favoring Biden are just an aberration. He is still carrying the Obama love in. In a long election year, his numbers will start to come down one questions on his policy stance are asked.

Edit.. basically what @Kentonio said
 
Well then I hope for the country’s sake Biden also runs, not because I particularly rate him but so he can split that establishment vote with Hillary leavin Big Man Bernie with a path to victory :drool:
 
Early this year -
BIDEN DOESN'T WANT TO HEAR MILLENNIALS COMPLAIN: 'GIVE ME A BREAK

Millennials who think that times are tough in 2018 have no room to complain, according to former Vice President Joe Biden, who said that he had “no empathy” for young people who compared today to the struggles of the 1960s.

“The younger generation now tells me how tough things are—give me a break,” said Biden, while speaking to Patt Morrison of the Los Angeles Times to promote his new book. “No, no, I have no empathy for it, give me a break.”
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Biden is massively out of touch.
 
Eboue said:
You left out the part where he said they solved civil rights
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“Here’s the deal, guys,” continued Biden. “We decided we were going to change the world, and we did.”
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I like how the paragraph after this awful Biden line just lists all the problems that they didn't fix at all. Also I might be wrong but there's this weird entitlement with boomers that they are completely within their right to eat up all the housing, destroy huge portions of the global south and massively contribute to the death of the planet. All because they once smoked some pot and called a soldier a baby killer.

No wonder Hendrix called it quits at 27.
 
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