2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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I know Labor Day is when the election buildup really starts historically, but does this metric really hold that true anymore? I just heard that some early voting starts in just over a month, that’s insane. We keep hearing that there’s ‘plenty of time’ from the pundits, but before we know it, many, many people will be voting.

Save for another crisis of epic proportions, is everything as baked in as it can be? Should the refrain of ‘having plenty of time’ in future election build up cycles be moved many weeks or months earlier?
 
calodo2003 said:
I know Labor Day is when the election buildup really starts historically, but does this metric really hold that true anymore? I just heard that some early voting starts in just over a month, that’s insane. We keep hearing that there’s ‘plenty of time’ from the pundits, but before we know it, many, many people will be voting.

Save for another crisis of epic proportions, is everything as baked in as it can be? Should the refrain of ‘having plenty of time’ in future election build up cycles be moved many weeks or months earlier?
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There are five states who have gone to strictly mail in voting this year and another handful of states where early voting starts between the 40-50 day mark before the election, so if Trump is planning on narrowing the gap, he will need to do it between now and mid September. After that, swing states like MI, PA, and a few others begin mail in voting.

As for the baked in bit - its definitely not baked in and anything can happen between now and Nov. If Dems think they can relax because of current polls then they are mistaken - especially since turnout will also inform who controls the Senate.
 
The Atlantic have a good article paralleling the Portland scenes to how Putin did similarly (much worse of course) in 2014 with Ukraine. He sent in his troops basically for photo ops, (and of course to kill some innocents, because Putin) and then used state media to project the Ukraine as a lawless, Christian-hating place that needed to be controlled. And he did control it.

Trump has sent in camo'd f*cking border agents with assualt rifles and is desperately hoping violence erupts, so he can have pretty pictures of one of the most liberal cities as 'under seige'. And just look at Fox News - every day in the last 7 the lead stories and main imagery has been exactly those pictures. It's pravda for dummies.

I cannot fathom how these people sleep at night.
 
Raoul said:
There are five states who have gone to strictly mail in voting this year and another handful of states where early voting starts between the 40-50 day mark before the election, so if Trump is planning on narrowing the gap, he will need to do it between now and mid September. After that, swing states like MI, PA, and a few others begin mail in voting.

As for the baked in bit - its definitely not baked in and anything can happen between now and Nov. If Dems think they can relax because of current polls then they are mistaken - especially since turnout will also inform who controls the Senate.
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But, does the common refrain that a campaign doesn’t really begin until Labor Day need to change in order to engage constituents & motivate them? It just seems a tad antiquated by the press & pundits to say nowadays, but the average attention span for an American ain’t that long to begin with. Seems to be a bit of a conundrum.
 
calodo2003 said:
But, does the common refrain that a campaign doesn’t really begin until Labor Day need to change in order to engage constituents & motivate them? It just seems a tad antiquated by the press & pundits to say nowadays, but the average attention span for an American ain’t that long to begin with. Seems to be a bit of a conundrum.
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Agreed. The Labor day thing always seemed more of a media narrative than reality, especially this year where a vast majority of people already know how they will vote - as opposed to in the past where enough people to sway a result were still undecided going into Sep.
 
Raoul said:
There are five states who have gone to strictly mail in voting this year and another handful of states where early voting starts between the 40-50 day mark before the election, so if Trump is planning on narrowing the gap, he will need to do it between now and mid September. After that, swing states like MI, PA, and a few others begin mail in voting.
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Any idea about the expected percentage of voters who will vote well before election day(in whatever way). I mean, if it's just a few percent, then Trump has a bit longer than if it's, say, 25%.
 
Cheimoon said:
Any idea about the expected percentage of voters who will vote well before election day(in whatever way). I mean, if it's just a few percent, then Trump has a bit longer than if it's, say, 25%.
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I'd expect it to be pretty high this year given the COVID situation - wouldn't be surprised if it was 30-40% in states that allow it.
 
Cheimoon said:
Any idea about the expected percentage of voters who will vote well before election day(in whatever way). I mean, if it's just a few percent, then Trump has a bit longer than if it's, say, 25%.
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considering Trumps going to ignore all their votes and declare them illegal due to ANTIFA mail fraud does it really matter?
 
Raoul said:
I'd expect it to be pretty high this year given the COVID situation - wouldn't be surprised if it was 30-40% in states that allow it.
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Right, yes - that'd be pretty consequential.
sun_tzu said:
considering Trumps going to ignore all their votes and declare them illegal due to ANTIFA mail fraud does it really matter?
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If he can keep his new federal police toy going, I would not put it past Trump to try and issue an executive order about mail-in voting being fraudulent, and sending in his goons to confiscate ballots. I hope that's a legal impossibility though.
 
Cheimoon said:
Right, yes - that'd be pretty consequential.

If he can keep his new federal police toy going, I would not put it past Trump to try and issue an executive order about mail-in voting being fraudulent, and sending in his goons to confiscate ballots. I hope that's a legal impossibility though.
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I think hes just going to declare himself winner based on the in person votes
Probably ban masks for voting (voter fraud you know) and have his federal police checking voter eligibility in the queues... basically if you aint MAGA you aint voting and then decalring himself winner on the in person votes with a101% vote share because hes better than perfect
 
Silva said:
replace the word biden with trump any time someone asks why you're voting for a sociopath and you're there
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You seem like a very nice person. Hope you're having a great day.

Have you abandoned calling Biden a pedophile now that those claims fell apart? So he's a sociopath. Ok cool, that's something often said about Joe Biden, his lack of empathy. Robot Joe they say.
 
Cheimoon said:
Right, yes - that'd be pretty consequential.

If he can keep his new federal police toy going, I would not put it past Trump to try and issue an executive order about mail-in voting being fraudulent, and sending in his goons to confiscate ballots. I hope that's a legal impossibility though.
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I could also see him issuing an executive order or similar that only his people can count the mail in votes. Should be impossible I believe as it's all state-run, but who knows, Bill Barr will let him go with anything.

Maybe he should just sign an executive order to remain President, regardless of the vote. Then tie that up in the courts for 4 more years. Solved.
 
Cheimoon said:
If he can keep his new federal police toy going, I would not put it past Trump to try and issue an executive order about mail-in voting being fraudulent, and sending in his goons to confiscate ballots. I hope that's a legal impossibility though.
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I can't imagine it would be within his power to do that. The states have almost all the say when it comes to elections. It's possible GOP-run states could do something, though (and some are trying, like Texas). Either way November is going to be a shit show, almost no one is prepared for a pandemic election. It's going to be interesting to see the unstoppable force of opposition to Trump meet the immovable object of voting during a pandemic.
 
SirAF said:
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It sucks that it takes an ad like that to remind the public that, at the podium in the White House, the President of the United States offered his support of an underage sex-trafficker.

It barely even made the news.
 
Beachryan said:
It sucks that it takes an ad like that to remind the public that, at the podium in the White House, the President of the United States offered his support of an underage sex-trafficker.

It barely even made the news.
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Predictable though given that there are very fine people on both sides.
 
Beachryan said:
It sucks that it takes an ad like that to remind the public that, at the podium in the White House, the President of the United States offered his support of an underage sex-trafficker.

It barely even made the news.
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Yup, incredible but sadly not surprising.
 
His usual thing is that he meets lots of people, hardly knew them, etc, etc.
He would have denied knowing her were there not plenty of evidence to the contrary.
 
Raoul said:
Predictable though given that there are very fine people on both sides.
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The finest of sexual assault enablers. Many people say she was the best, its, it's just unbelievable what she could get you.
 
sun_tzu said:
I think hes just going to declare himself winner based on the in person votes
Probably ban masks for voting (voter fraud you know) and have his federal police checking voter eligibility in the queues... basically if you aint MAGA you aint voting and then decalring himself winner on the in person votes with a101% vote share because hes better than perfect
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Na thats not happening. As soon as he loses he'll get kicked out no matter how much he cries. US isnt going to turn into a dictatorship overnight.
 
Suv666 said:
Na thats not happening. As soon as he loses he'll get kicked out no matter how much he cries. US isnt going to turn into a dictatorship overnight.
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Its going to be many days... quite possibly weeks till the increased postal votes are counted and I expect legal challenges to them way before they arel even declared... he will declare victory on the night, start court cases over the postal votes and refuse to leave as he will say he was the winner

Genuinely think he's going to do that and if there are court cases and if trump has won the vote on the day I am not sure what the dems will do
 
Beachryan said:
The Atlantic have a good article paralleling the Portland scenes to how Putin did similarly (much worse of course) in 2014 with Ukraine. He sent in his troops basically for photo ops, (and of course to kill some innocents, because Putin) and then used state media to project the Ukraine as a lawless, Christian-hating place that needed to be controlled. And he did control it.

Trump has sent in camo'd f*cking border agents with assualt rifles and is desperately hoping violence erupts, so he can have pretty pictures of one of the most liberal cities as 'under seige'. And just look at Fox News - every day in the last 7 the lead stories and main imagery has been exactly those pictures. It's pravda for dummies.

I cannot fathom how these people sleep at night.
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You think it's spicy now......just wait till trump tweets on election night, as a crushing defeat becomes likely, that his "supporters in the military and law enforcement must come to protect the white house because the election is being stolen".
 
Some of my US friends are telling me that there are starting to have a lot of problems with the USPS and that might be a tactic for vote suppression. is there any true on that?
 
4bars said:
Some of my US friends are telling me that there are starting to have a lot of problems with the USPS and that might be a tactic for vote suppression. is there any true on that?
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Yes, Trump has recently changed the leadership of USPS and it seems deliberate. Last week or so, I've had two packages delayed by the USPS. Before that it has literally happened to me only once in the last 4-5 years.
 
WPMUFC said:
You think it's spicy now......just wait till trump tweets on election night, as a crushing defeat becomes likely, that his "supporters in the military and law enforcement must come to protect the white house because the election is being stolen".
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I wish we could just brush this as another conspiracy ramble, however literally anything is possible this year.
 
The Firestarter said:
I wish we could just brush this as another conspiracy ramble, however literally anything is possible this year.
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I'm not saying it's a certainty. I think it is a certainty that he'll call the election "rigged," and could easily transition powers with no dramas. Conservatives love nothing more than using the victim card and could easily dine in on "BIDEN STOLE THE ELECTION" for his whole term.

I'm just saying all an authoritarian needs is to be convinced to act, and then the question shifts from "peaceful transition of power" to a test of the capacities of a democracy to quash an authoritarian overthrow/power grab. What happens in a scenario where a tweet goes out claiming "My supporters in the military and law enforcement must come to protect the white house because the election is being stolen" as the counting is going on?
 
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sun_tzu said:
Its going to be many days... quite possibly weeks till the increased postal votes are counted and I expect legal challenges to them way before they arel even declared... he will declare victory on the night, start court cases over the postal votes and refuse to leave as he will say he was the winner

Genuinely think he's going to do that and if there are court cases and if trump has won the vote on the day I am not sure what the dems will do
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It already happened in indonesia the last 2 election. The opposition party claimed the election is rigged and refuse to sign the result. A deadlock that has to be solved inside the court. Thank goodness our SC are still independent.

Proving material, witness etc are being brought. Regardless of how good an election is you will and can always find something in 100millions votes. Argue that the other side is cheating and just yell alot.

If they somehow ruled the election as invalid and knock the hammer. That'll be just that. That's the final decision maker. You can't appeal the SC. Any attempt not to listen to them would be a breach of law.
 
I thought we were bad enough having to choose between Jezza and BoJo but is Biden really the best that the Land of the Free can come up with to topple Trump. No wonder the whole world will be speaking Chinese within a generation or two.
 
Kentonio said:
Can’t even find Echelon Insights in 538’s vast list of pollster ratings.
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I believe it’s fairly new. Started by Kristen Soltis Anderson who is a regular on the networks. She fancies herself a Republican but talks more like a Dem.

 
Virgil said:
I thought we were bad enough having to choose between Jezza and BoJo but is Biden really the best that the Land of the Free can come up with to topple Trump. No wonder the whole world will be speaking Chinese within a generation or two.
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Don't forget Clinton
 
McGrathsipan said:
Don't forget Clinton
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I had not forgotten dear Hillary. Sad that things are not getting better. We go from Cameron to May to Johnson and the opposition from Milliband to Corbyn to Starmer. Pygmies all of them. Whilst in the dear old US of A they go from Clinton to Biden with the other side sticking by Trump. Truely you could’nt make it up.
 
Virgil said:
I had not forgotten dear Hillary. Sad that things are not getting better. We go from Cameron to May to Johnson and the opposition from Milliband to Corbyn to Starmer. Pygmies all of them. Whilst in the dear old US of A they go from Clinton to Biden with the other side sticking by Trump. Truely you could’nt make it up.
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Is Boris Johnson a person of the people?
Is he frickin feck!

Its unreal that these cnuts are in power.... of sorts for the opposition.
 
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