Despite what seems to be a Warren surge, Sanders is still leading her in most states so the likelihood of him getting out just because she's doing well is probably zero.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Despite what seems to be a Warren surge, Sanders is still leading her in most states so the likelihood of him getting out just because she's doing well is probably zero.
SC is a big Biden state. Same with PA (which is why Drumpf is getting nervous after seeing the internal rust belt polling).
I don't mean now, but if she keeps climbing and he keeps... well, not climbing, and maybe even after a few Primaries.
Plenty of time until the primaries, but if the 15% proportional applies in every state then we may be looking at a 3 horse race going forward, until such time as someone else emerges from the pack to challenge that. Buttiegieg, being at 10-12% won't be worth anything at all unless he can move it up to 15, and even then, he would likely still be a distant last in terms of delegates won for a given state. Debates will be massive over the coming months.
They will both stay in it until they are mathematically eliminated and even then, one of them may delay conceding so they can buy themselves a bit leverage to shape the platform at the convention. That's obviously presuming someone like Biden wins the nomination. For all we know, Warren could wizz by everyone after the debates.
I can't wait. I might have to sacrifice a reasonable sleep schedule, but I'll catch as many as I can. Luckily one of the perks of being a teacher is that my summer holiday will have just started by the time the debates do.
Not sure what you're referring to so you'd have to link. I am talking specifically about the 2016 election where there is both anecdotal evidence and data that implies the polls systematically underestimated the turnout for Trump. When the article I linked showed that polls can swing 8 points from the same data set simply by how they formulate their likely voter calculations I don't see how that's even slightly controversial.
The other thing about the generic Democrat vs. Republican data is that another market only has Trump at 88cents for being the Republican nominee so the generic Dem. vs. Rep market wouldn't be assuming 100% that Trump is the nominee.
How do you know this? We have a ton of time between the start of the debates and next Feb-March when the votes start. If, for instance, Warren does surge after the debates its very likely that by Autumn there could be people dropping out and/or making behind the scenes deals and that includes the top 6. For instance if Mayor Pete stagnates and others surge why would he stay in just get a distance 6th when he could pull out after gaining the benefit of nationwide recognition and make a deal behind the scenes. I think he'd probably do that. I don't think any of the top 5 will stay in to the bitter end if they start tanking by the fall.
Oh and the 15% is a state rule in California as far as I know so it wouldn't necessarily be in play elsewhere.
Perhaps not, but as I said, further down the page it's clear they have the Democrats as favourites against the Republicans, on the whole.
I just can't see Sanders dropping out under any circumstances until he's actually eliminated. He came too close last time and given that he will be over 15% in most states, I can't see any of the three top candidates dropping out unless one of them is so far ahead that it would be pointless to keep going. Sanders and Warren will therefore spend much of the primaries splitting the progressive vote, which will benefit Biden and force the likes of Buttiegieg, Warren, and Beto to position themselves somewhere between progressive and center, since there won't be enough votes from progressives to carry any of them and Biden will probably gobble up a vast majority of the ordinary Dem (aka Centrist) votes.
Could see him vying for a VP spot - probably positioned closely enough between the party's two wings for that to work.
let me just take the spare five hundred bucks ive got every month and stick it in an account
It's scary how $500 monthly is supposed to be the more reasonable sum. That's higher than the total annual cap on most medical services in Norway (including visits to the doctor and the hospital, psychologist, surgery, necessary testing, prescriptions, etc).
And that's on top of insurance. What's insurance for anyway?
If Biden gets the nomination, it’s proof the Dem’s have learned absolutely feck all over the last 3 years.
That's likely true, especially given that there are a substantial chunk of Dems who think Hillary won 3m more votes and was cheated out of what was a probable win by Comey's last minute antics.
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Thread on the current trajectories of Sanders and Warren
Even the best outcome with Biden - he wins the nomination and beats Trump, all it will do is drag the democratic party to the right.
Yep. His “working with Republicans” will consist of him making huge compromises for them and getting nothing in return.
Potentially 4 to 8 years of right wing policy and then whatever monster the republican base pukes up will win because of a disenfranchised dem voting base.
The nomination has to go to Bernie or Warren.
And it’s essential that they are backed by Democrat majority house and senates otherwise it’ll be a total waste of the next two cycles.
Pretty much.
Although at least with Bernie he believes in mass movements as a way of change(This view along with foreign policy and heath care is in my view what sets Bernie miles ahead of Warren).
Bernie's issue is he hasnt been able to animate such a mass movement in sufficient numbers. Half the population still don't vote and there's no indication his participation is changing that in any way.
Yeah I know but Bernie is trying and will try if he becomes president(Its a very long, long shot but it's all the american left has). Warren won't do anything similar, mostly because it's not her type of politics.
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Well the media is 90% left
Bernie is a spineless twat.
The Dems in 16 put up the worst candidate since Dukakis. She should be in prison.
We're talking about betting markets, not the media, which you would have realized if you either clicked the link or read the post I was replying to.
And yet she still got 3 million more votes than Littlefingers.
Where have you been?
Biden still in the lead. Why do the masses turn a blind eye to how little Biden/Obama sorted out Wall Street? Nothing changed with them. Disgrace.
The masses are interested in beating Trump. If Biden is perceived as being the person most likely to do that then he will continue lead in the polls.
That's true, but it's for little benefit if nothing changes. Besides, there are plenty candidates with credentials to beat Trump.
It's way to early. The establishment media ,Pelosi ,Schumer are pulling out the stops to push Biden ,but i'm sure when he actually gets on the debate stage , like always he will slip down in the polls.
Thank you for this valuable political insight.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-iraq-invasion-isis_n_5d02d4e4e4b0dc17ef06d77a
Joe Biden Says He’s Ready To Handle The World. He Got Iraq Wrong Three Times.
After voting for the Iraq War, Biden tried to drastically reorganize the country along ethnic and sectarian lines and helped lay the groundwork for ISIS to thrive.
Joe Biden Says He’s Ready To Handle The World. He Got Iraq Wrong Three Times.
After voting for the Iraq War, Biden tried to drastically reorganize the country along ethnic and sectarian lines and helped lay the groundwork for ISIS to thrive.
Imagine thinking Bernie is spineless. The only self-proclaimed socialist in the Senate (in the country that brought you Ronald Reagan and Joseph McCarthy), and was active in the civil rights movement (and whatever people think of the civil rights movement today, at the time it was highly unpopular).
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