2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Organic Potatoes said:
Only with Beto on board, and even then I don't like the odds.
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Earlier Biden camp reached out to Beto to be the VP. Beto hasn't ruled out yet and seems to be under consideration. Considering Biden age, an younger VP may make more sense. Also Beto may appeal more to younger voters.

oneniltothearsenal said:
We really need to see the candidates debate before we know how it will shake down. Beto or Pete or even Bernie if he catches the right wind at his back could steal the rust states from Biden.
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I believe that Rust Belt and Florida favor older candidates. They may not be as receptive to Beto as they are to Biden (were to Trump). Plus Biden's Union friendly reputation and being a pseudo-local will help him.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
I don't think Biden will lose any state that Hillary won. He'll just add to the total. I don't recall Hillary winning any state narrowly...where she won, she won big. And those will go to Biden too. Add in swing states. Wouldn't even discount the likes of Texas and Arizona going blue narrowly.
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New Hamphsire was almost Trump, I think <1%.
Even Minnesota wasn't safe. She was genuinely wiped out in the midwest.


Texas won't go blue.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
Earlier Biden camp reached out to Beto to be the VP. Beto hasn't ruled out yet and seems to be under consideration. Considering Biden age, an younger VP may make more sense. Also Beto may appeal more to younger voters.
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That would be a very strong ticket and would have a good chance of turning Texas blue. Although, there will be immense pressure for Biden to make a diversity pick for his VP.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
Earlier Biden camp reached out to Beto to be the VP. Beto hasn't ruled out yet and seems to be under consideration. Considering Biden age, an younger VP may make more sense. Also Beto may appeal more to younger voters.

I believe that Rust Belt and Florida favor older candidates. They may not be as receptive to Beto as they are to Biden (were to Trump). Plus Biden's Union friendly reputation and being a pseudo-local will help him.
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For the the general:

In 2012 the Libertarian candidate only got 1% of the popular vote (1.2 million votes).
In 2016 the Libertarian candidate got 3.3% of the popular vote (4.5 million votes)

Do you think 4.5 million that voted libertarian in 2016 will continue to vote 3rd party in 2020?
 
berbatrick said:
New Hamphsire was almost Trump, I think <1%.
Even Minnesota wasn't safe. She was genuinely wiped out in the midwest.


Texas won't go blue.
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Aye, given time Texas will be in-play, still an election cycle or two away from happening. Even if Beto's the candidate the Republicans will still take it, albeit perhaps narrowly.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
For the the general:

In 2012 the Libertarian candidate only got 1% of the popular vote (1.2 million votes).
In 2016 the Libertarian candidate got 3.3% of the popular vote (4.5 million votes)

Do you think 4.5 million that voted libertarian in 2016 will continue to vote 3rd party in 2020?
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Probably depends on how the Libertarians do in general. In 2016 they had a fairly strong start with Johnson seeming to some like a reasonable alternative to Hilary and Trump. I even remember talk they'd compete in one or two states - such talk was premature but they had a decent support base for a while. If they mount a focused campaign they might maintain that, but if they don't they'll probably fade to 2012 levels again.

Also may struggle at picking up disaffected Republican voters, who were perhaps horrified by Trump in 2016 but have since come to see him be largely normalised since then.
 
Raoul said:
That would be a very strong ticket and would have a good chance of turning Texas blue. Although, there will be immense pressure for Biden to make a diversity pick for his VP.
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I also think if Beto steps out the race too quickly and decides he want to be VP he may become perceived as someone who essentially only ran for vanity purposes and to increase his own profile without any intention of actually doing the top job. If he does want to be VP, and if that's the plan, he should probably wait it out longer. Also agree Biden will probably feel forced to pick a diversity VP, may opt for someone like Harris or even Buttigeg in that regard, depending on how they do in the primaries.
 
The candidate becoming president next year will become a one term president if he/she does not have Trump arrested for his crimes.
The guy has no respect for the constitution and worse the Republicans are supporting him and not standing by the Constitution.

Cannot believe what we are witnessing.
 
The Houston Chronicle reported on Wednesday that Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, the party’s marquee pick to take on Republican Sen. John Cornyn, would actually not be running for Senate after all. Instead, Castro is going to stay in the House. “Right now, I’m going to focus on my work in the House of Representatives. I’ve been doing what I feel is important and meaningful work here,” he told Hearst Newspapers. “If and when I run for another office, it is likely to be something that takes me back home to Texas.”


Castro is just the latest recruiting loss for Senate Democrats, in what can only be described as a series of abject failures. Beto O’Rourke, who nearly beat Sen. Ted Cruz last year and whose campaign helped push several Democrats over the top in downballot races all over the state, is running a fledgling campaign for president. So is Castro’s twin brother Julián Castro, the former HUD secretary and mayor of San Antonio. Now, the most prominent Democrat in the Texas Senate race is MJ Hegar, a former House candidate who narrowly lost her bid for a seat in the suburbs of Austinlast year. Hegar, an Air Force veteran, has never held elected office.

It’s not just Texas either. Two-term Montana Gov. Steve Bullock is reportedly set to announce a run for president that will not work, in a year where Republican Sen. Steve Daines is up for re-election. Stacey Abrams decided not to take on David Perdue in Georgia. John Hickenlooper passed on a chance to face the most vulnerable GOP senator, Cory Gardner, in favor of polling 1 percent in presidential polls and telling national audiences about the time he watched porn with his mom. And at this point, it looks like North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis’ biggest challenge next year might be in the Republican primary rather than the general election, where the DSCC still hasn’t found a Democrat willing to run. (Currently, the most high-profile candidate is three-term state Sen. Erica Smith-Ingram.)

Unless all of these people running for president rather than Senate seats they can actually win have a collective realization that their efforts might be better spent elsewhere—and soon—the Democrats are essentially set to cede control of the Senate to Mitch McConnell until 2022, no matter what happens at the top of the ticket. That is a fecking disaster.
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Its just frustrating especially when you consider that the Dems will go into the senate races knowing they will lose an incumbent (GOP will win back Alabama).
 
Here's another one. Just a few weeks ago Bennet had surgery for prostate cancer and he thinks now is a good time to run for president.

 
ErranMorad said:
Yeah, excellent.

Are you? Why you trawling gossip columns for shit?
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no i found something weird about the leading democratic politician on twitter, so i decided to post , after which you replied without tagging or quoting and then had a mini-meltdown over the concept of public services.
 
berbatrick said:
no i found something weird about the leading democratic politician on twitter, so i decided to post , after which you replied without tagging or quoting and then had a mini-meltdown over the concept of public services.
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It’s not really about Joe Biden though is it.
 
This wanting everything for free is a childish and disingenuous argument anyway. It's just a totally unfair misrepresentation of the beliefs and system many believe in and are wishing for.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
I don't think Biden will lose any state that Hillary won. He'll just add to the total. I don't recall Hillary winning any state narrowly...where she won, she won big. And those will go to Biden too. Add in swing states. Wouldn't even discount the likes of Texas and Arizona going blue narrowly.
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Not even Beto will be able to win Texas.
 
sun_tzu said:
Am I right in thinking that's not actually bad polling for trump at this point in an election cycle... Mid term don't most incumbents suffer a dip?
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Well he’s losing to most Dems in the poll so it’s not exactly a positive for him. The polls are obviously going to fluctuate wildly in the coming months once the debates begin and more negative info comes out about Trump and the residual drama of the Mueller investigation.
 
Raoul said:
Well he’s losing to most Dems in the poll so it’s not exactly a positive for him. The polls are obviously going to fluctuate wildly in the coming months once the debates begin and more negative info comes out about Trump and the residual drama of the Mueller investigation.
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possibly - cant help but think that the dem campaign might be quite fractious between the more centrist and progressive elements of the party though and that might play in his favour - not so much that people will switch from biden or sanders to trump - but that there may be people who dont feel energized to campaign or vote for a dem candidate they dont believe in.

Id say the dems are slight favorites to win in 2020 but given some of the stuff trump has said and done they should be so far in front its not even a contest... get into a full election cycle with trump tweeting away and attacking opponents and I can see it being incredibly close again - certainly think he can win a second term against any of the dems if he can drag them down to his level
 
sun_tzu said:
possibly - cant help but think that the dem campaign might be quite fractious between the more centrist and progressive elements of the party though and that might play in his favour - not so much that people will switch from biden or sanders to trump - but that there may be people who dont feel energized to campaign or vote for a dem candidate they dont believe in.

Id say the dems are slight favorites to win in 2020 but given some of the stuff trump has said and done they should be so far in front its not even a contest... get into a full election cycle with trump tweeting away and attacking opponents and I can see it being incredibly close again - certainly think he can win a second term against any of the dems if he can drag them down to his level
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Definitely. Trump and his lackeys would love nothing more than the Dems to fracture into competing tribes where one of the two tribes stays home on Election Day thereby titling the election Trump’s way.
 
Even Harris isn't friendly enough to Comcast, HMO execs and pals of Mitch McConnell for the DNC :/
 
I’m still fairly confident at this point that the more Biden opens his mouth, the less people are going to like him. We are talking about a guy who has been running for the presidency since the 80s and best achievement was finishing a distant 5th in Iowa before dropping out.
 
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