2018 US Elections

Revan said:
The ID card thingy is pretty much everywhere. You need some document with a photo on it, released by some government agency in order to vote. Don't see why this is seen as a bad thing in US.

Of course getting a document should be quite straightforward, but on most of cases I have been you need to have a residency to get a document. And yes, Native Americans might struggle a bit to get a document but again it is hardly unique, you can say the same for gypsies in Europe. Still rules are rules, and I don't see any harm at all to ask for a document in order to vote.
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There's plenty of harm. It's been explained how and why repeatedly.

It's just another in a long line of GOP tactics to stop poor people and minorities from voting because they tend to vote democrat.
 
Senate Toss Ups Usually Break One Way

Jennifer Duffy: “One interesting phenomenon in Senate elections is that the races in the Toss Up column never break down the middle; one party wins a majority of them.”

“Going back 10 cycles to 1998, the lowest percentage of Toss Up seats one party won was in 2002 when Republicans won 67 percent (6 of 9 races). In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party took 89 percent of the contests in Toss Up. In 2004, Republicans won 8 of 9 races, but in 2006, Democrats took 8 of 9 races. In 2014, Republicans won 8 of 9 contests. That there were nine races in Toss Up in all three years and there are nine this year is purely a coincidence.”
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https://politicalwire.com/2018/11/05/senate-toss-ups-usually-break-one-way/
 
I guess that CNN's poll is very biased (optimistic). They are predicting a +13% for Democrats, which could be something like 60+ seats. Most other polls seem to be around +8-+10% which still gives them a comfortable victory.
 
Revan said:
I guess that CNN's poll is very biased (optimistic). They are predicting a +13% for Democrats, which could be something like 60+ seats. Most other polls seem to be around +8-+10% which still gives them a comfortable victory.
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Problem is areas that have been gerrymandered to shit. The overall vote needs to be unusually high to overcome that
 
niMic said:
That's not very surprising, is it? If there's something fundamentally off with the polls or predictions in one close race, there's a good chance the same is true for other close races.
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It’s not about anything being off though, just that toss ups all tend to break the same way. Which could be very, very good news for Democrats tonight.
 
Charlie Foley said:
Problem is areas that have been gerrymandered to shit. The overall vote needs to be unusually high to overcome that
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A +5.5 or so should give Democrats the control over the house (which is still ridiculous, they could still win with 5% advantage and not get the house). A +13 could be 60-80 net gain on seats, which would be huge. A more realistic +9 will give them an extra 40 seats.
 
Rado_N said:
There's plenty of harm. It's been explained how and why repeatedly.

It's just another in a long line of GOP tactics to stop poor people and minorities from voting because they tend to vote democrat.
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It's beyond a parody now. Every time a reasonable person asks for an ID you people say it's been explained before and it's GOP tactics to harm poor people. FFS.
 
Revan said:
A +5.5 or so should give Democrats the control over the house (which is still ridiculous, they could still win with 5% advantage and not get the house). A +13 could be 60-80 net gain on seats, which would be huge. A more realistic +9 will give them an extra 40 seats.
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If it is +13 for real, Dems should win the Senate too. It just seems too high.

Well, we will soon find out anyway.
 
Suedesi said:
It's beyond a parody now. Every time a reasonable person asks for an ID you people say it's been explained before and it's GOP tactics to harm poor people. FFS.
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Would you like all the posts quoted instead so you can struggle to understand them again?
 
The United said:
If it is +13 for real, Dems should win the Senate too. It just seems too high.

Well, we will soon find out anyway.
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Yeah, a +13 will likely mean that Dems will also win the senate considering that there are a few lean Republican races.
 
Revan said:
I guess that CNN's poll is very biased (optimistic). They are predicting a +13% for Democrats, which could be something like 60+ seats.
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Which is weird, because I just turned CNN on and their election guy was saying 60 odd seats didn’t look at all likely. Guess the twat didn’t read his own networks poll. :D
 
Suedesi said:
Go for it.
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berbatrick said:
On Election Day, my wife did not go to the polls, but I did. I had my valid Georgia driver's license. I had my Vanderbilt University student ID. I even had my voter registration card, a couple of utility bills, my lease, and a copy of my birth certificate. I have doubts about the prevalence of in-person voting fraud and therefore the necessity of voter ID laws—but there are three reasonable components to test for: identity, citizenship, and residency, which I felt I was able to supply with everything I had with me.


However, that did not meet the legal standard to vote in Tennessee. So I had to cast a provisional ballot, which was ultimately not counted.

According to the Brennan Center, jurisdictions previously under federal preclearance have since purged far more names off of their lists than other jurisdictions. A separate study by the Leadership Conference Education Fund documents the alarming rate at which these same jurisdictions have been shutting down polling places since 2013; for instance, 212 voting locations closed in Arizona alone in the run-up to the 2016 elections.

The broad discretion and mean use of it has been at the forefront of the news recently because of Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the Republican nominee for governor in next month’s election. He had already been at the forefront of both the excessive purge of voter rolls, and the closure of voting locations in predominantly poor and minority areas and, last week, the Associated Press exposed that Kemp’s office has put 53,000 voter registration forms on hold because they ran afoul the state’s “exact match” test. The test means that a slight divergence between the applicant’s name on the registration form and on existing government files — say, a missing hyphen or an added accent — is enough to put an application in limbo. Around 70 percent of the frozen applications are from African Americans in the state.
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Ekkie Thump said:
I guess the percentage varies from state to state. For instance in 2016 Texas had a voting age population of 19.3 million while the number of these with a drivers licence was 15.9 million. That equates to around 82%. If you consider that licensing rates decline the younger and poorer you are you can see why a seemingly trivial thing like demanding a license has an immediate and disproportionate disenfranchising effect on specific portions of the population. Might be (pulling figures out of my ass a bit here) that up to a quarter or a third of the poorest Texans don't have a license.

The most recent estimate of how Texan ID law affects registered voters is from way back in 2014 when a judge appeared to accept that over 600k Texans failed to meet the state's ID requirements despite being registered to vote. My guess would be that the longer a licence is required then the more people will pick one up, but I'm not sure that's the case.
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Wednesday at Stoke said:
The Atlantic had a great piece today on the cost of voter id laws. Most places in Texas end up costing around $90 to get a voter ID.
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Texas ID Card Fees
The application and renewal fees for ID cards in Texas vary based on age:

New ID Card Application

  • 59 years old & younger – $16 (expires on birth date after 6 years).
  • 60 years old & older – $6 (no expiration).
ID Card Renewal
  • 59 years old & younger – $16 (expires after 6 years).
  • 60 years old & older – $6 (no expiration).
ID Card Replacement
  • 59 years old & younger – $11 (current expiration does not change).
  • 60 years old & older – $11 (no expiration).
Change of Name or Address
  • 59 years old & younger – $11 (current expiration does not change).
  • 60 years old & older – $11 (no expiration).
ID Card Fees for Military Veterans
If you are a disabled veteran you may be eligible to receive a free Texas ID card if you:
  • Have been honorably discharged.
  • Sustained a service-related disability of at least 60%.
  • Receive compensation from the United States because of the disability.
To qualify for the fee exemption, you must prove your disability status by presenting one of the following at your local DPS office:
  • A signed letter on disability status (issued by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs).
  • Official documents that verify the first 3 requirements from the above list.
NOTE: If you receive disability compensation but cannot provide a signed letter from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, you may bring documents verifying your disability by your branch of military service.
 
@berbatrick

Wait a minute...
On Election Day, my wife did not go to the polls, but I did. I had my valid Georgia driver's license. I had my Vanderbilt University student ID. I even had my voter registration card, a couple of utility bills, my lease, and a copy of my birth certificate. I have doubts about the prevalence of in-person voting fraud and therefore the necessity of voter ID laws—but there are three reasonable components to test for: identity, citizenship, and residency, which I felt I was able to supply with everything I had with me.


However, that did not meet the legal standard to vote in Tennessee.
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Trying to watch US tv for the election coverage. Jesus christ the endless adverts are annoying as feck..
 
Eboue said:
It's not easy for some people. Let's consider some examples of people with little need for a driver's license:

  • a person who doesnt drive and takes public transportation
  • an elderly person who doesnt leave the house
  • a disabled person who doesnt drive or leave the house
  • a young person who isnt comfortable driving but is over the legal voting age
  • a native american who lives on a reservation and has no need for a drivers license. they may or may not have a tribal ID which may or may not have a picture which may or may not be accepted by a DMV for obtaining state ID

Then let's consider how a state ID is obtained:

  1. Visit a DMV office (these often operate only during bankers hours, are sometimes hours away by car (and remember, a number of the people above dont drive), have extremely long lines and are run by patty and selma)
  2. Bring your birth certificate (yet another obstacle for native americans who are frequently born at home)
  3. Establish residency at an address (another obstacle for native Americans who sometimes dont have address with numbers or utility bills)
  4. Get a photo ID (some offices only offer paper ids)
  5. Many state also require secondary proof like a vehicle title or home insurance or an employee ID card (things that many groups listed above wont have)


To be honest it's kind of aggravating to see person and person who lives in Germany or England or Denmark or whatever come on here and say "how can you not have an ID? Everyone here has one". The reasons I mentioned are not a secret, anyone can google them and read about it. This is one of the things Americans are often criticized for, assuming the rest of the world operates the way they are used to and here we have the reverse.
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From my limited experience, I dont know how you get anything done in the US without a car.
 
Red Dreams said:
why should a poor person who takes a bus to work be forced to pay for an ID?
Anyone who is registered goes to the polling station and just signs next to his or her name to get a ballot.

That's how it is here in Minnesota.
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Devils advocate here, but... what if you go to the polling place and there’s already a signature next to your name?
 
Kentonio said:
It’s not about anything being off though, just that toss ups all tend to break the same way. Which could be very, very good news for Democrats tonight.
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I'd argue that if the toss ups all break the same way then something is off, almost per definition. It's not chance. Polls or predictions will have underestimated one factor that affects all the similar races.
 
Apologies if it has already been asked but when are results expected to come through UK/Ireland time?
 
Carolina Red said:
Devils advocate here, but... what if you go to the polling place and there’s already a signature next to your name?
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What Red Dreams said is pretty much the way things have been done in the UK forever and there hasn't been much problem. I guess if someone has claimed to be you, you can then produce ID and they match your voter ID to the paper ballot, rip it up and give you a new one. Over here there haven't been any significant issues reported with paper votes, whereas every election over there it seems there are countless problems reported to do with the voting machines.
 
Computers and voter data stolen from California Democrat’s office in brazen Election Day burglary

Democratic candidate for California Senate had her office broken into and sensitive voter information stolen, reports the
Merced Sun Star.


The burglary occurred on Election Day, as California voters headed to the polls.


According to the Sun Star, staffers from Anna Caballero’s office said that the burglars stole campaign material, computers and electronics with voter data.


“They also ripped out our internet modem so we’re totally offline right now,” said Bryan King, campaign manager for Senate Democrats. He claimed workers were prepping for election day get-out-the-vote operations until about 1:30 a.m. Tuesday morning.


“I hate to be cynical, but I think it speaks to the state of politics here — that people would go to this means and this far to try and take down a local campaign is unfortunate,” said King.
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https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/co...emocrats-office-brazen-election-day-burglary/

 
Damien said:
What Red Dreams said is pretty much the way things have been done in the UK forever and there hasn't been much problem. I guess if someone has claimed to be you, you can then produce ID and they match your voter ID to the paper ballot, rip it up and give you a new one. Over here there haven't been any significant issues reported with paper votes, whereas every election over there it seems there are countless problems reported to do with the voting machines.
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Huh? Surely the actual ballot is completely devoid of identifying information, making this impossible?

Certainly when I vote in Norway there is nothing distinguishing my vote from anyone else's. It's just a folded bit of paper. Secret elections and all that.
 
Damien said:
What Red Dreams said is pretty much the way things have been done in the UK forever and there hasn't been much problem. I guess if someone has claimed to be you, you can then produce ID and they match your voter ID to the paper ballot, rip it up and give you a new one. Over here there haven't been any significant issues reported with paper votes, whereas every election over there it seems there are countless problems reported to do with the voting machines.
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You don’t have secret ballots?
 
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