Oh dude.. Absolutely.
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
- Status
So...in the scenarios I'm looking at, Trump basically has to swing Pennsylvania. Does that sound right?
Any of MI, WI,VA, PA, MN would probably do, since he'd be winning everything else in that scenario.
He's gotta swing at least 1 state that basically everyone thinks will go blue. Or swing NH and then something else.
I'll stick with my map above from earlier this morning.
I think he might split Maine, since the state is a bit bipolar sometimes. Seems like a typical liberal NE state, but then has GOP governors.
I'm giving Trump NC because I just don't think the Asheville effect in Western NC has outnumbered the rednecks up there like my uncle yet.
Giving Hillary FL and NV because of early voting trends and gut feeling.
Obviously if FL goes her way early then its lights out for Drumpf. They won't however announce it because the panhandle is in CST (remember 2000?). If the early poll closures/exit polling suggests a PA win for Hillary then that would be a major set back for Trump as he would have to basically steal MI and WI to compensate. In a nutshell, if he loses PA, a vast majority of his paths are snuffed out even he wins FL, NC, AZ, IA etc He would have to win MI and CO or MI and WI to barely reach 270.
My take on it.
Worst case scenario:
What I actually predict:
What I actually predict:
I'm going the same.
As perversely entertaining as it would be to watch an utter buffoon like Trump rule the most powerful nation in the world, I'm amazed that he's actually going to win more than a couple of states. Millions of Americans actually want this person to be commander in chief etc. Absolutely amazing that yet again they only have 2 options to pick from and one of them is a complete joke and the other is also someone they'd rather avoid if they didn't have to vote for the lesser evil. What a country. What a world.
Is that a giant Gary Johnson logo?
My take on it.
http://crooksandliars.com/2016/11/giuliani-tells-wolf-blitzer-no-he-wasnt
WOW! Rudy G is in the shit! He's backtracking like a mo-fo! Lying piece of shit, he's been bragging all over the place and now he realises he's in the doo doo he's backpedalling like crazy. @Raoul, @InfiniteBoredom do you guys think he could be in serious trouble over this? Or just a slap on the wrist maybe?
WOW! Rudy G is in the shit! He's backtracking like a mo-fo! Lying piece of shit, he's been bragging all over the place and now he realises he's in the doo doo he's backpedalling like crazy. @Raoul, @InfiniteBoredom do you guys think he could be in serious trouble over this? Or just a slap on the wrist maybe?
Living in the most liberal (or at least Democratic) county in NC, I think the governor's race could help propel Clinton to the win. Early voting has been good even though it was cut in some places. While Democratic turnout is down in early voting, independents should probably break Clinton by a decent margin. Early voting statistics from Florida seem positive too.
It's also interesting to see that she's dedicating lots of resources to Ohio, which is supposedly a Trump lock at this point. I would guess her internals show she's got a shot. She might even have a chance at Arizona if hispanic turnout is high enough.
It's also interesting to see that she's dedicating lots of resources to Ohio, which is supposedly a Trump lock at this point. I would guess her internals show she's got a shot. She might even have a chance at Arizona if hispanic turnout is high enough.
My take on it.
Nate Cohn has been covering NC closely. And while it doesn't show the same reassuring numbers of NV, Clinton already has a good advantage there
Which of those are closest?
The gut feeling map:
The data map:
The supremely optimistic map:
The apocalypse map:
The data map:
The supremely optimistic map:
The apocalypse map:
Based on polling averages, PA, but WI probably and realistically likeliest. Lots of undecideds and strong GOP voter suppression.
I'm sure there will be a full investigation as to whether active FBI officers were funnelling information to Giuliani (and thus the Trump campaign) and whether there was cooperation between the two that led to the Comey announcement. If that is the case then someone is going to jail. In fact, the only way Rudy is getting out of this is he can actually prove he was never in touch with anyone from the FBI - he has already admitted on a radio show the other day that he is in fact in touch with active FBI members, so he will have a hard time squirming out of this.
PA most likely. At 2.5 per RCP
Just looked at NH though... RCP has Trump up 1.6 there
Brilliant
My take on it.
Even if they're not funneling it directly to him but to people (retired agents) they know will relay it to Giuliani, the agents should lose their jobs.
Is this not still the most likely map of a Trump victory?
Nevada and Florida blue based on the early votes. Georgia and Arizona traditionally red and close but not enough to give Clinton. Iowa and Ohio seem to favour Trump regardless of what happens with him.
Is this not still the most likely map of a Trump victory?
It was, until the early votes in NV were tallied and Dems by all intents and purposes already built an impregnable lead.
Okay.
Nevada and Florida blue based on the early votes. Georgia and Arizona traditionally red and close but not enough to give Clinton. Iowa and Ohio seem to favour Trump regardless of what happens with him.
All of Maine red or just the 2nd Congressional District?
He's such a snake.
Right at the end there he's going on about the "corrupted Obama DoJ" blocking the FBI from impaneling a Grand Jury and when says he got that info from "public sources", when asked what public sources he says the newspapers so he doesn't know if It's true or not.
Wolf then asks why would he go on national TV and repeat things as facts if he doesn't know they're true and he says he was told about it from former FBI agents.
Slimey cnut can't even keep his story straight for 90 seconds.
Its time to put up or shut up - head over to 270towin and create your prediction map and post it here, including why certain states will vote as they do.
My prediction 289-249 Hillary
- Nevada seems to be a Dem pick up which would put her over 270 even if she loses NH, which would put Trump's 270-268 (NH + ME 2nd District).
- I think Hillary will pick up either NC or FL, which would obviously allow her some flexibility to lose either PA or MI and still win. On Tuesday, look for results in PA and NC - if she wins both, and given what we know about NV early voting, it would be pretty much over.
- Trump should win the likes of IA, AZ, UT, GA et al
- Don't be surprised if FL is so close (as in within .5 of 1%) that the results once again have to go to a recount and won't be fully tendered in for days. Obviously that will matter less if Hillary already reaches 270 elsewhere.
- Expect Trump to win the 2nd Districts in NE and ME.
Early Signs Hillary will win
- She holds PA, VA, and wins NH and NC (coupled with early voting in NV)
- Unexpectedly early strong returns in FL and/or NC
If Trump wins this, he will more than likely win 270-268 by taking NV, NH, and the 2nd ME District. The reason this seems less likely than a few days ago is the strong returns Dems are already getting in NV, which cuts off this particular path.
Early signs Trump will win:
- Early, unexpected strong results in PA and NH
- Strong results in NC and FL
- PA is clearly the tipping point state for him, if he does well there, he will have broken her blue firewall and she may lose.
How is this putting up or shutting up when you have posted maps pointing to both candidate's win?
Shutting up would mean not making a prediction at all.
In fairness, he's made it clear one is his prediction and the other is just a possibility to fear.
I'll stick with my map above from earlier this morning.
I think he might split Maine, since the state is a bit bipolar sometimes. Seems like a typical liberal NE state, but then has GOP governors.
I'm giving Trump NC because I just don't think the Asheville effect in Western NC has outnumbered the rednecks up there like my uncle yet.
Giving Hillary FL and NV because of early voting trends and gut feeling.
That seems fair. I can see Hillary winning one of FL or NC, which would obviously put things out of reach for Trump. If on the other hand he wins both, then we may be heading to a 274-264 Hillary win.
The reporting on CNN, makes it seem like Ohio is gone. 
The reporting on CNN, makes it seem like Ohio is gone.
Trump definitely has the edge there, but the fact that the Clinton campaign have been there so often in the past week or so suggests their internal polling may differ from what Silver and RCP are pushing.
A couple of ways it could be a EC deadlock...
Thanks. If you watch the interview with Wolf, he's clearly lying his arse off. He's definitely squirming a lot too. You can see in his eyes he knows he's fecked up and in serious trouble. I hope he does get in serious shit over it, and the people leaking the info should be in trouble too. CNN had an hour dedicated to the leaks from the FBI and Justice Department the other night, they were reporting on how bad it all is and how they have never had or known leaks like this in either department.
I know, that's the worst part about it all. You can see him squirming and yet he's still fecking lying his arse off. Check around the 7/8 minute mark he's clearly smirking and almost taunting Wolf, until he gets a question he doesn't like again then it's back to backtracking and blaming someone else. So obviously lying like mad. Awful, detestable snaky cnut.
The RCP Average has Hillary + 2.3% with Trump never having eclipsed 45%. If he wins, he would have to basically finish with an amazing surge where the final numbers eclipse 45% imo, otherwise I can't see him doing it at 42%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Whose winning?
The Russians.
- Status