2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Were these conducted before or after Bush dropping out?
Good question.

MA (+34) - 19-21st so both, but the press release mentions Bush dropping out, so I presume it's accounted for (and his lead is enormous anyway)
NC (+18) - Before, Bush and Rubio combined score is 13 points behind Trump.
NC (+9) - Before, Bush and Rubio combined 8 points behind Trump.
MI (+18) - Before, Bush and Rubio combined 21 points behind Trump.
IL (+13) - Before, Bush and Rubio combined 6 points behind Trump.

Tends to tighten up but still not enough, he needs Kasich gone to have a chance.

For the sake of completion, a couple of GA ones out since (data from 21st):

GA GOP - Trump +9
GA Dem - Clinton +52
 
Good question.

MA (+34) - 19-21st so both, but the press release mentions Bush dropping out, so I presume it's accounted for (and his lead is enormous anyway)
NC (+18) - Before, Bush and Rubio combined score is 13 points behind Trump.
NC (+9) - Before, Bush and Rubio combined 8 points behind Trump.
MI (+18) - Before, Bush and Rubio combined 21 points behind Trump.
IL (+13) - Before, Bush and Rubio combined 6 points behind Trump.

Tends to tighten up but still not enough, he needs Kasich gone to have a chance.

For the sake of completion, a couple of GA ones out since (data from 21st):

GA GOP - Trump +9
GA Dem - Clinton +52

Looking at those numbers, even with Kasich gone, Trump still lead the race. Marcobot only chance then will be splitting up enough delegates to prevent Trump from reaching the delegates count and wait for politicking at the convention. If Cruz drops out then he's fecked. Trump does very well with Cruz evangelical, tea party base so he will nick a fair chunk, if not the lion's share of those votes.
 
Quite a few undecideds though and they'll break to Rubio. But yeah, Trump is in a commanding position. If he wins Florida, it's over essentially.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-donald-trump-becomes-president_us_56cb5429e4b0928f5a6c9ead

Here's How Donald Trump Could Become President
If he succeeds in the Rust Belt, look out.
Should read "if he sweeps the Rust belt and hasn't aliened enough hispanic voters by calling them rapists and murderers, look out".

The best line in the piece, from the Editor:
"Editor's Note: Donald Trump is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist, birther and bully who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims -- 1.6 billion members of an entire religion -- from entering the U.S."

Agreed.
 
I know I am going to get jumped on for this, but could not resist.

The Brits and the Europeans on here love Bernie Sanders because they are all products of the "Welfare State". They are used to having their hands out, they have never experienced anything else Sanders wants to give everything free of charge, not seeming to realise you never really appreciate anything unless you have worked for it.

I work really hard and pay a great deal of tax that goes towards the welfare state (I assume you were using that in a derogatory manner for some reason) which is IMO is the minimum support we should afford for those less fortunate. I'm all for minimum government in many areas but Universal free Healthcare and Education should be a given in any caring mature democracy but that is being undermined worldwide while we spend unnecessary billions of the military and subsidies to powerful lobby groups.
 
It doesn't mean anything now, where there are all those possible combinations, and Sanders fans temporarily hate Clinton.


This trend has been there since before Sanders entered the race, long before any Sanders fans decided Clinton was too right for them. Sanders outperforming her in general matchups has been a trend almost since the start of his campaign too.
 
I know I am going to get jumped on for this, but could not resist.

The Brits and the Europeans on here love Bernie Sanders because they are all products of the "Welfare State". They are used to having their hands out, they have never experienced anything else Sanders wants to give everything free of charge, not seeming to realise you never really appreciate anything unless you have worked for it.

Hilary dosen't come off very well, she seems phoney. In practically every other country she would be a centralist or a moderate Tory, which she was for most of her political career. Now she is tripping over herself to be more left than Sanders.
Us bastards, not having to pay for our damn healthcare! What an entitled lot we are!:lol:
:lol:

It's not worth arguing. You can keep your 'free' market Canuck. :boring:
 
This trend has been there since before Sanders entered the race, long before any Sanders fans decided Clinton was too right for them. Sanders outperforming her in general matchups has been a trend almost since the start of his campaign too.

The States email releases will conclude this month. I think there will be an uplift in her general polling starting early April or so.

In all honesty, I can see how she can lose, but the current mindset is that this is about as bad as it can get, and the only way is up. Anyhow, the polling we should be focus on this cycle is that of battleground states, OH, PA, VA, FL, NC, CO etc...
 
This entire thing could be wrapped up for Trump in the next 23 days - if Cruz and Rubio don't make substantial gains between now and the 15th, Trump will have the nomination all but wrapped up.
 
I work really hard and pay a great deal of tax that goes towards the welfare state (I assume you were using that in a derogatory manner for some reason) which is IMO is the minimum support we should afford for those less fortunate. I'm all for minimum government in many areas but Universal free Healthcare and Education should be a given in any caring mature democracy but that is being undermined worldwide while we spend unnecessary billions of the military and subsidies to powerful lobby groups.

come on Wibbs. those hard working Health Insurance companies :(
 
The Brits and the Europeans on here love Bernie Sanders because they are all products of the "Welfare State". They are used to having their hands out, they have never experienced anything else Sanders wants to give everything free of charge, not seeming to realise you never really appreciate anything unless you have worked for it.


I'm neither Brit nor European.
The main reason I support Sanders because he isn't going to go around the world selecting countries to bomb. Clinton is the least hawkish of the remaining candidates, and her resume includes Iraq and Libya. ISIS and anarchy, respectively, along with hundreds of thousands of deaths.


As an Indian, I also am a fan of welfare states. Some people classify India as one, and we do have huge government programs, but not much spending (as a proportion of GDP), so I don't know. I have never been handed anything by this welfare state. Instead, all the handouts I received were from my parents, since they were rich enough that they could afford to put me in a private school, take the time to teach me after school, and could pay for my college.

What I do know is that these welfare programs are the difference between life and death for infants and mothers, between a hand-to-mouth existence and a semi-stable life for many villagers, and between destitution and not-hopelessness for widows. I know that these programs are filled with corruption and leakages, but the newer ones are better -- and anyway, that's an argument to fix corruption, not abolish the program.


I know that in the west, social mobility is declining rapidly. That the wealth of your parents can determine how well your schooling goes, especially since people who dislike the "welfare state" don't think it's worthwhile to provide pre-school for kids. I know that in the world's sole superpower, people can go destitute if they get ill. Maybe they really appreciate doctors now that they must pay through their noses, but I think they'd appreciate them well enough if they got treated for free too.
 
I know I am going to get jumped on for this, but could not resist.

The Brits and the Europeans on here love Bernie Sanders because they are all products of the "Welfare State". They are used to having their hands out, they have never experienced anything else Sanders wants to give everything free of charge, not seeming to realise you never really appreciate anything unless you have worked for it.

Hilary dosen't come off very well, she seems phoney. In practically every other country she would be a centralist or a moderate Tory, which she was for most of her political career. Now she is tripping over herself to be more left than Sanders.

Have you ever lived in a European country with welfare benefits? You think they don't appreciate their world class medical, educational, transport and other facilities because the threat of bankruptcy doesn't loom on them if they decide to go to university or get cancer?
 
Quite a few undecideds though and they'll break to Rubio. But yeah, Trump is in a commanding position. If he wins Florida, it's over essentially.


Should read "if he sweeps the Rust belt and hasn't aliened enough hispanic voters by calling them rapists and murderers, look out".

The best line in the piece, from the Editor:
"Editor's Note: Donald Trump is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist, birther and bully who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims -- 1.6 billion members of an entire religion -- from entering the U.S."

Agreed.

:lol:. Yeah I loved the Editor's note.

If Trump moves left as I think he will, he may be further left than Hillary on Health Care and Taxing the top tier. We don't know what his platform will be. The one thing he has is enthusiasim And a message. Get rid of teh establishment politicians and money out of politics. Sure Hillary will be favourites in a GE. But the Dems should be careful about what they wish for.

I'm enjoying this election year very much. I was right the last two cycles down to the exact electrol votes. I cant wait for the GE. "you aint seen nothing yet" :)
 
Rough average from UK bookies - cause I like odds...

Clinton - 5/6
Trump - 3
Rubio - 4
Sanders - 9
Bloomberg - 30
Cruz - 30
Biden - 50
Kasich - 60

So, punters think probably Clinton but not necessarily. Trump and Rubio both stand a decent chance. Sanders a long shot. The rest very long shots.
 
Hearing talk that Trump could choose John Kasich as his running mate. That would certainly help him in those states and with the Republican establishment who like Kasich. Kasich as a moderate Republican could make Trump more acceptable.

Kasich will bring him Ohio. Not sure about PA. He may go full wild and pick a moderate Democrat. :lol: The guy is unpredictable.
 
Totally disagree with this. On the left, old fashioned or not, there´s always been a certain degree of morality when considering issues like civil rights and especially the environment and foreign policy, i.e civil rights over intervening and/or bombing third world countries. Concerning the environment, leftists take a far more "spiritual" or "non business" attitude over contaminating the earth, whereas conservative are always pounding away that economic concerns and ridding business of bothersome regulations and the epa take precedent over climate change and contamination. Just look at Flint - leftists questioning the morality of poisoning citizens while conservatives were "saving money." Leftists are rarely associated with "business."

In fact, if anything, it´s right wing conservative America that is beholden to economic issues. The worship of corporations, free market, anti regulatory, heroic billionaire "job creator" bollocks, the whole "prosperity doctrine" pregnating their right wing christianity spirituality, wars for US special interest (i.e. economic interest). The right wing guided by Saint Ronnie´s "greed is good" and their god of money and business is the party of economic issues.


I think those are generalizations in the 1st paragraph. Marx was anti-environment. Marxist analysis says that all other issues (like inequality of women) is because of (in short) capitalism.
So, many old-fashioned leftists (I think Sanders is one) have an an instinct to always answer questions by going back to economic issues.*

Of course leftists have been on the "right" side of history on every social issue of the last century. But you can be feminist/pro-LGBT/pro-environment and still think that income inequality/capitalism is a more systemic problem.


*I'm not saying they are right, I'm just saying that may be why Sanders always goes back to his standard lines.
 
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Yes, leftists are always moral and always do the very best for the people. The fact that there are centrist and rightist politicians recurrently in office around the world must be some global scale brainwash. :rolleyes:

Leftist policies aim to do what is best for the people, as a general rule.
The fact that the left has lost globally is partly because the actual individuals may be corrupt, partly because they are going up against entrenched interests, and partly because human greed outwits the best efforts of governments.

For example, leftist parties in general around the world will be less pro-fossil fuel than their right-wing counterparts. But the alliance of right-wing parties and the corporations is winning, and the planet will get destroyed in the process. Do you think the general population of these countries are brain-washed? Or is it because elections can be fought on more than one issue, and the right-wing has mastered the art of demonisation, splitting the working class, campaigning on social issues, often with the help of the media...owned by the very same interests?
 
Sadly, it is too late to change his tactics.

Sanders is blowing it by refusing to attack Clinton over her scandals

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...7d69aa-d966-11e5-891a-4ed04f4213e8_story.html

And The Post has reported that the State Department inspector general had issued a subpoena “seeking documents about the charity’s projects that may have required approval from the federal government during Hillary Clinton’s term as secretary of state,” including records related to Clinton’s top aide, Huma Abedin, who “was employed simultaneously by the State Department, the foundation, Clinton’s personal office, and a private consulting firm with ties to the Clintons.”

:lol:
 
come on Wibbs. those hard working Health Insurance companies :(

If there were such a thing there would be a special level of hell for them. One up from peado priests and one down from ambulance chasing lawyers and telemarketers.
 
I know I am going to get jumped on for this, but could not resist.

The Brits and the Europeans on here love Bernie Sanders because they are all products of the "Welfare State". They are used to having their hands out, they have never experienced anything else Sanders wants to give everything free of charge, not seeming to realise you never really appreciate anything unless you have worked for it.

What an absolute load of bollocks. A complete clusterfeck of a post and it reads like something you would hear on Fox news.
 
I hope you're not refetencing my post, I never said she was relying solely on superdelegates to win. I just don't like the idea that superdelegates can vote any way they want without regard to the will of the people. They usually don't do that as it would be very bad publicity but the fact that they could seems undemocratic.
Well, strictly speaking, America is not a democracy. Despite the use of the term as if it's a galvanizing buzzword.
 
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I know I am going to get jumped on for this, but could not resist.

The Brits and the Europeans on here love Bernie Sanders because they are all products of the "Welfare State". They are used to having their hands out, they have never experienced anything else Sanders wants to give everything free of charge, not seeming to realise you never really appreciate anything unless you have worked for it.

Hilary dosen't come off very well, she seems phoney. In practically every other country she would be a centralist or a moderate Tory, which she was for most of her political career. Now she is tripping over herself to be more left than Sanders.
You realise that the Brits and Europeans pay more in taxes than Americans? And that the college is far from free in UK?
 
You realise that the Brits and Europeans pay more in taxes than Americans? And that the college is far from free in UK?

It's much easier to believe that all us Brits and Europeans get everything for free and do feck all for it except sit on our arses with our hands out in our backwards Socialist hovels.
 
It's much easier to believe that all us Brits and Europeans get everything for free and do feck all for it except sit on our arses with our hands out in our backwards Socialist hovels.
Yep. In fact, from all developed large European countries, only Germany has a free college, but then, people pay 40% plus on taxes there.

So really, the healthcare ain't free if you pay 10k in taxes per year. But on the bright side, you're sure to have a decent treatment if you're sick, and in continental Europe, anyone can afford to send their kids on top European colleges.
 
It is free to the user. And so it should be including college. We are rapidly returning to having a permanent underclass, the majority of who will find a University education out of reach. But who cares at they won't live as long as the rest of us?
 
This is how Jeb! spent 'his' money :lol:

I0kYoll.png


*Please note, I've stopped using my iPhone as per The Don's request.
 
I know I am going to get jumped on for this, but could not resist.

The Brits and the Europeans on here love Bernie Sanders because they are all products of the "Welfare State". They are used to having their hands out, they have never experienced anything else Sanders wants to give everything free of charge, not seeming to realise you never really appreciate anything unless you have worked for it.

Hilary dosen't come off very well, she seems phoney. In practically every other country she would be a centralist or a moderate Tory, which she was for most of her political career. Now she is tripping over herself to be more left than Sanders.

That's an amazing post for all the wrong reasons. If you have to start with an urge to declare you're going to get jumped on just stop :lol:

We don't get free handouts, we mutually contribute into a system that benefits all and provides a social security net for those who fall on hard times. Even then our homeless particularly in Manchester would guff at that statement.

Many of us like Sanders because we have to suffer a Tory goverment here that is gradually chipping away at such ideals we value as fair and necessary. Sanders represents the right direction.
 
I know I am going to get jumped on for this, but could not resist.

The Brits and the Europeans on here love Bernie Sanders because they are all products of the "Welfare State". They are used to having their hands out, they have never experienced anything else Sanders wants to give everything free of charge, not seeming to realise you never really appreciate anything unless you have worked for it.

Hilary dosen't come off very well, she seems phoney. In practically every other country she would be a centralist or a moderate Tory, which she was for most of her political career. Now she is tripping over herself to be more left than Sanders.


I would respond to this from a different angle. As one of Sander´s biggest supporters, I think it comes more from spending most my life and running a business in a third world country where there is the total opposite of the nanny state. Social darwinism at its finest. Low to non existent taxes, a weak weak state that translates into rampant corruption and laughable control, a pathetic justice system, the minimum of social investment and infrastructure, absence of a safety net, piss poor public education. Hard to get credit . . . I could go on and on, I think you get the picture. The third (and often fourth) world.

I also lived for years in California and Europe and know how lucky you guys are for the "nanny state" so many love to slag off. It´s not rocket science why us folks of the the third world want to emigrate to these "nanny states" of Northern Europe and North America. It´s not because of handouts, it´s because of economic opportunity and relatively well paying jobs that stem from a capitalism with "nanny state" benefits derived from its recent past, quality society they have fashioned from public investment in education, infrastructure, in safety nets, in spreading the fruits of capitalism in a fairer, more equative way. Dare I say, in a more christian way.

I think Sanders stands for the benefits of what a "nanny state" has to offer and can offer, given the political will. A fairer, more "christian" enjoyment of the fruits of capitalism.
 
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