2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Silva said:
538' current prediction
Expected electoral votes

Clinton Trump
299.0 238.2


Please don't be wrong, please don't be wrong.
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That only updates after states are called, so its off a bit. Try NYT tracker.
 
Nate Silver @ 9:08 PM said:
The Upshot’s calculator has Clinton projected to eventually win the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points — right in line with where national polls had the race. And yet, they show her winning only 290 or so electoral votes, which obviously means that Trump has a decent shot to win the Electoral College. That potentially seems to validate our finding that Clinton was in a worse position in the Electoral College than the popular vote, since her coalition is not concentrated in swing states.
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the silent majority strikes again. (brexit first time)

I've seen a whole bunch of trump signs and ONE hillary sign while I was in baltimore, and that's in one of the bluest states.
 
279 - 259 projected on NYT. I know the limitations of these numbers at this stage has been well-documented here but... that is very very close.
 
People saying that Nate Silver was right are fools. He still predicted that Clinton would win.
 
Cheesy said:
No, but when you have one who's a virtual fascist, potentially controlling the senate and house, and surrounding himself with idiots who will do what he says, there's a concern he'll become more powerful and that is very worrying.
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True. I won't argue with that. My point is that still, president can't change that much anyway, politics on that scale are affected by a million things and at the end of the day, the men with money are the ones with the biggest say. But as I said, the main thing for me from this election is that after 50 years or so of maybe the highest standards of living for the average person across the west, all it took is a little drop over the past decade or so for THAT many people to revert to the dark ages. THAT's what I find extremely worrying.
 
The markets are giving 60% to Clinton 40% to Trump to win.

Trump will shortly be favorite to win
 
Michigan is what has me worried right now.
 
sammsky1 said:
I have that deep feeling of concern I had 2 hours into BrExit vote count.
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Yeah, we were constantly told about how it was incorrect and illogical to have that feeling but it definitely feels quite valid at this point. Old, conservative people giving the more right-wing a much stronger chance than most polls projected.
 
Revan said:
It is over.

It looks increasingly likely that we have an another Brexit/Reagan type of scenario, when the polls missed by a large margin. Virginia being in risk means that Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania might be at risk too.
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My cousin in PA reckoned it's going to swing Trump's way there, marginally :nervous:
 
Cmon VA. Wtf are ye doing? If she loses FL she has to win VA, MI and NC?

Crazy. Never expected it to be this close but I'm still hopeful.
 
Nate Silver still gives 74% chance of Hillary winning (299 electoral votes), but he gives the senate to Republicans.
 
feck this i need to be up at 6.30. Now have no confidence so hopefully ill be pleasantly suprised in the morning
 
Ramshock said:
trump ahead now, hopefully urban areas kick in soon
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Well, that would be genuinely concerning. It looks like he's taken Florida, is ahead in Ohio and will take Arizona. Nevada should go Clinton's way, but I think she needs Michigan as well, because it looks like this is closer than polls anticipated.
 
Clinton will still win this, but feck me what a shit show.

Sometimes I think democracy is utterly pointless without mandatory IQ testing.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
That's down from 6/1 earlier. A lot closer. Shit viewing for now, but she'll take Michigan. It's not whether she wins, but by what margin imo.
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Remember on election night, we saw 'Tory majority' go from 5/1 to 2/1 then odds on, then suspended. Same thing on Brexit night.

If Trump takes this, political polling and predictions will be truly meaningless - relegated to the realms of astrology.

This is a nightmare, I would hate to be a moderate American right now.
 
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