Yeah, i meant a winning streak. The problem is that you are already on a great run, but you are still sixth, as the league is fecking competitive this season.
2016/2017 Title race
- Thread starter Adisa
- Start date
I don't see that as a problem. I am more interested in the points gap, and points totals, than positions. Over a month we've really cut the number of points we are behind both 1st and 4th place.
You see a great run, the only thing I see is better finishing. United played just as well against Spurs as they did against Arsenal. They probably played better against Arsenal frankly. Played better against Stoke than they did against Palace. The difference in both games was finishing. Before we were missing gilt edged chances, there's even compilations of Zlatan's misses in October, now we're being clinical. Against Stoke Pogba hit the crossbar from a header with 5 minutes left. Against Boro his header went top corner on 86 minutes. That's the margin of difference we're talking about.
If we keep playing as we have all season, unless Zlatan suddenly loses form again, what will stop United turning first half season draws into second half season wins?
I recognise that the league is competitive but its not impossible to think ourselves, or any of the top six, could end up winning it.
This for me is the key. While its true nobody has come from as far behind as United since Arsenal did it in 1998, its not like there haven't been chances for this to happen. The statistics need to be contextualised.
There is nothing in the statistics that meant it was inevitable that United would score four against Everton in April 2012, then bizarrely crumble in stoppage time so Everton could equalise. The difference between the stats @Rafateria posted being valid or not was the width of the post Patrice Evra hit, which would have been our 5th goal.
Likewise there was nothing in the stats that meant it was ordained by God that Gerrard would slip against Chelsea. Its perfectly possible to imagine that Gerrard would've controlled that ball, Liverpool would've gone on to beat Chelsea and then win the title.
Stats, isolated from what's actually going on, don't tell you much. Fellaini has a high pass completion rate. Does that mean he can replace Carrick? No.
I'm not saying Chelsea are going to let it slip. What I'm saying is, in a race where points will be dropped over the next four months, you can't dismiss the idea that United are in the title race. If Souness etc. are willing to contemplate it, can it really be such a daft idea?
The idea can't be dismissed, of course, and it's still there, but I think what's being addressed is that instead of this being something of a very, very strong likelihood, it's a very, very distant possibility.
Because even if Chelsea do crumble, we still have to compete with a mire of teams alongside us such as Liverpool and City who have demonstrated ability to go on excellent form throughout the season, and may continue to do so. City regained an eight point deficit in 2012...but had they been 3rd with, say, Chelsea in 2nd and three points ahead of them, winning the title would've been even harder.
We're not only relying on the collapse of one team, but hoping about three or four others don't hit excellent form and further complicate any title bid.
Essentially, we can win the title, but it's more of a distant possibility than anything that's likely to happen.
Very difficult run-in for every team, i'd say. They basically have 2 big games per month.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...fies-14-key-fixtures-battle-finish-first.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...fies-14-key-fixtures-battle-finish-first.html
The way I see it is, rather than hoping every other team stumbles, we have to hope United suddenly show form we have not for years. In other words, we have to hope that in the second half the season we win at least 16 games and lose no more than once. If we do that we will finish the season with 86 points minimum, which in most years would be enough to win the title.
That's a lot to hope for. I am not a fantasist. We have not had that kind of run for years. It would be a massive upturn in form. One that is at the more unlikely end of the probability scale. Am I willing to write it off completely, with the way Jose's suddenly getting a sweet tune out of our team? No.
If we get to the point where we cant win 16 games in the second half of the season, then and only then will I give up the ghost. Until then I'm going to keep believing.
United's will likely be the toughest.
If United beat Hull and get to the League Cup final the City game scheduled for the last Sunday of February will be moved. Knowing the league it'll probably end up being in April or May, especially if we still have Europa League commitments. Something tells me United will have to play Chelsea, City, Spurs and Arsenal in the last month of the season. Hopefully we'll have our 16 second half of season wins by then!
The way I see it is, rather than hoping every other team stumbles, we have to hope United suddenly show form we have not for years. In other words, we have to hope that in the second half the season we win at least 16 games and lose no more than once. If we do that we will finish the season with 86 points minimum, which in most years would be enough to win the title.
That's a lot to hope for. I am not a fantasist. We have not had that kind of run for years. It would be a massive upturn in form. One that is at the more unlikely end of the probability scale. Am I willing to write it off completely, with the way Jose's suddenly getting a sweet tune out of our team? No.
If we get to the point where we cant win 16 games in the second half of the season, then and only then will I give up the ghost. Until then I'm going to keep believing.
United's will likely be the toughest.
If United beat Hull and get to the League Cup final the City game scheduled for the last Sunday of February will be moved. Knowing the league it'll probably end up being in April or May, especially if we still have Europa League commitments. Something tells me United will have to play Chelsea, City, Spurs and Arsenal in the last month of the season. Hopefully we'll have our 16 second half of
season wins by then!
You are right. It will be tough. But if we beat Liverpool in January followed by Chelsea, City, Spurs and Arsenal closer to the end of the season I believe we will be champions.
It will be like five cup finals. Difficult but not impossible.
Y'all keep going about the league being more competitive than ever. Problem is, you're now seeing the same thing that's been happening in the other 3 top leagues, i.e. best teams are several levels above the rest of the pack. That means those top 6 sides are unlikely to drop more than a few points against teams outside the top 6. Let's say you'd won those games against burnley, stoke, arsenal and west ham? You'd have gotten 44 points out of the first 19 games. You don't win the title this season with 88 points. Chelsea will not finish below 90 points. If you drop more than 3 points from now until the end of the season, you'll be effectively out of the title race
Guess we'll see. Even when Premier League was getting three from four slots in the Champions League semis, and there was an established 'big four', it was rare for teams to get over 90 points here. The record is still Mou's Chelsea with 95 back in 2005.
England has a long season, with a lot of matches, and fatigue and pressure affect teams massively towards the end of it. What helps Chelsea is its strong first half of the season. That gives Chelsea the room to stumble over the line, as they did two years ago. I think its far more likely that the winner of the Premier League will get 85-90 points than more though.
Not saying chelsea will break the record, but since from 2003/04 until 2008/09, the winners got 90, 95, 91, 89, 87, 90 points. 2006/07 united didn't break 90 points because they won the title with 2 games in hand and got 1 point out of those 2 meaningless games(chelsea A, WHU H)
2007/08 united underperformed slightly in what was probably the strongest premier league season ever, in part because of their CL run taking away from the league.
After that the level at the top dropped, then the level of the league as a whole dropped between 2011 and 2016, before picking up again this season
Of course chelsea's first half of the season(in which they simply overperformed. They won't get 49 points in the last 19) is the reason why I say they will get 90 points. Conte is a hammer, he doesn't ever let up, there is little chance of chelsea collapsing, and they simply will not drop more than a handful of points against weaker sides. If they get 4 points out of their remaining 4 matches against top 6 sides, they will reach 90 points
The best hope for Chelsea dropping points is some manager finding a system that troubles the 3-4-3 and others copying it to some success. Seems plausible to me. Lots of wide pace in the prem these days.
Only if you have the right players. For example, how could Leicester play with a 3-4-3 formation?
Schmeichel
Hernandez Morgan Huth
Simpson--------------------Schlupp
Ndidi-----Mendy
Mahrez
Slimani----Vardy
They won't, though.Hernandez Morgan Huth
Simpson--------------------Schlupp
Ndidi-----Mendy
Mahrez
Slimani----Vardy
It's not a matter of system, it's a matter of players. Chelsea's team is built and set-up to beat the weaker teams. Their vulnerability on the flanks can only be exploited if you can get past the matic/kante partership, on the counter, otherwise one of the 3 CBs is always in a position to help. And chelsea have been doing an excellent job of killing off counter attacking opportunities. Only the top 6 teams have the ability to hurt them, either by controlling the midifield(like tottenham) or by having enough quality to overwhelm them(like city did for the better part of an hour)
I am willing to bet Chelsea wont finish on 90+ points.
Lets just win as much as we can and see what happens. We pretty much need to beat all the teams above us to have a real chance at it. Just imagine if in April we have a chance at the title and in the semis of the cups - That late season excitement we have not had since 2011?
Lets just win as much as we can and see what happens. We pretty much need to beat all the teams above us to have a real chance at it. Just imagine if in April we have a chance at the title and in the semis of the cups - That late season excitement we have not had since 2011?
With top teams thrashing the dross and six-pointers to settle the race, current first will stay first imho.
Mahrez and Slimani are off to AFCON.
Gray and Drinkwater then. It's not even a good formation and they definitely won't use it, but just wanted to point out that probably any PL team has the players to fit any formation, whether they can make it effective is a different matter.
Yep, but Ranieri isn't surely a tactical genius. I see Klopp going with something like this (he has already done it this season).
If it was Liverpool, Spurs or Arsenal that were leading the table by 7 points, I'd say that the title race is still very much on, but that's because those teams are choke artists.
Chelsea are serial winners. Most of their team already won the league 2 years ago, so they've been there and done that, but they've found new motivation this year. Now combine that with no European football, and I just can't see them losing the title.
Chelsea are serial winners. Most of their team already won the league 2 years ago, so they've been there and done that, but they've found new motivation this year. Now combine that with no European football, and I just can't see them losing the title.
Between Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool imo. I'd expect Chelsea to win but their game against Liverpool will be very important. Chelsea are done with Spurs too, whilst Liverpool and Spurs will play each other. Hopefully this gives them enough cushioning for the silly points they might drop along the way.
Let's wait before talking about title race. Chelsea can only be defeated by Chelsea atm.
It's either a 1 horse or 6 horse title race. Honestly if Spurs are still in it so are United. Or do we knock 2nd place team atm out if they lose at City cause there is a chance United could be only 2 pts behind them. Of course it could also be 8 but I think thus weekends city Spurs game will have a huge say in how it's all going to finish
From now till April 2nd there is at least one match between two of the top 6, every week. It is going to be very interesting and im sure a lot of twists and turns as such.
Confidence isn't really high among supporters, we really need to pick up our form again otherwise we are just gonna slide out of the title race and even the top four altogether.
We need to do two things:
1) a win at home to Chelsea next week is a must, no two ways about it;
2) basically go on another winning run.
Coutinho and Hendo returning are obvious pluses, Mane gone isn't. The Matip situation is ridiculous and is probably the most pressing concern we have right now.
Confidence isn't really high among supporters, we really need to pick up our form again otherwise we are just gonna slide out of the title race and even the top four altogether.
We need to do two things:
1) a win at home to Chelsea next week is a must, no two ways about it;
2) basically go on another winning run.
Coutinho and Hendo returning are obvious pluses, Mane gone isn't. The Matip situation is ridiculous and is probably the most pressing concern we have right now.
Last edited:
I would take a draw from the game right now. It will be 2 points dropped for Pool rather than 1 point gained. If Matip is still not playing, Costa can bully Lovren and klavan leading them to getting the cards well with Hazard in the mix pulling defenders away. The only team to show how to best us has been Spurs which is by playing a back 3 too. It is impossible for Pool to play a back 3 as they don't have a 3rd cb neither a good lwb.
Well us and Arsenal managed to beat you earlier on, did we not, and both played with a back four? If we have a near full strength side out there, stand toe to toe with you and play our game then I think we are more than capable of getting the win.
Yes I don't blame you for settling for the point to be honest; i'd be the same if our situations were reversed.
We need to get at you from the first whistle, no time for dilly-dallying, an early goal from us would really open the game up where as an early goal for your lot would probably see you guys drop deep and play on the counter.
We are anyways going to sit back and play on counter like we did vs City.
Yes Pool and Arsenal did best us at the start of season but that was when our formation was different plus the players were new for Conte philosophy. Plus Costa was playing a lot different than he is now. Costa, Hazard, Pedro, Willian have improved as the season has gone on. So have Matic Kante Fabregas and the defenders and the gk. It's very different to play us now as compared to when you beat us earlier. Plus Pool are weaker than they were then.
I fully expect Liverpool (depending on injuries) to beat Chelsea.
I think so too, unbeaten in the last 4 in the league against them. But that's only if we are at the top of our game.
Bump.
Chelsea may even afford to drop points against fellow contenders while just disposing of the dross week in week out.
Amazing weekend for Chelsea. We blew any title aspirations months ago so I'm fine with this.
Stars aligning for Chelsea. It's as if last season never happened. The champions of two seasons ago have woken up, while everyone else bottles it they just win and win and win again.
Honestly think we blew our chances to get into the top four. On the rare occasions our rivals have faltered we haven't taken advantage. I can see us dropping more points as we can't seem to fecking score, whereas I don't see our rivals dropping too many more.
Unless Liverpool and us beat them, the title race is truly over.
People were claiming Chelsea would bottle it after the Spurs defeat & Costa rumours now apparently they're a lock to win it. Why's everyone so reactionary?
A potentially 8 point lead is nothing at this stage of the season.
A potentially 8 point lead is nothing at this stage of the season.
Did you see Liverpool dropping points today? Stoke away is not an match and the finishing needs to improve but I am confident that the team will start scoring a bit more freely once Martial and Rashford become regulars. Zlatan for all his scoring seems to be very slow.
Have to agree here. A potential 8 point lead is nothing to scoff at, but even with a win tomorrow the lead could be down to 2 points if Liverpool and Arsenal both beat us, which isn't exactly out of the realm of possibility. Worst case scenario we're one point behind the leaders after the Arsenal game, with City at home and United away the only fixtures from the current top 6 left. It's looking bright, but it's definitely a far way off being decided.
We might lose to pool which is unlikely but no chance we are losing to arsenal at Stamford.
Win v Hull and Chelsea could lose against Liverpool, Arsenal, City and Utd and still amass enough points to win the league in reasonable comfort.
However, just getting draws against those 4 would make it even easier
However, just getting draws against those 4 would make it even easier
Liverpool aren't at full strength, we are. That's honestly the difference. We have been squandering chance after chance for years now, it's not a sudden knee-jerk reaction.
Apart from maybe the Leicester game, when was the last time we put a team to the sword and were clinical? Every game is just missed chance after chance, it's so frustrating. Forget fighting to get into the top 4, if we could feckin finish we'd be competing with Chelsea for the title.