Not quite. We should realize that if Spurs beat Chelsea, we would potentially be just 10 points behind the leaders. With 18 games to play. That puts us in with a real chance. We should not give up on the title just yet. I'm not saying we will win it, but we can definitely be in contention for it, and with a bit of luck and good form, who knows what might happen? We have already seen UTD snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against Boro, why can't we do it in the title race as well? Especially since the title race has not even entered "injury time"? It's barely half time!
2016/2017 Title race
- Thread starter Adisa
- Start date
Not quite. We should realize that if Spurs beat Chelsea, we would potentially be just 10 points behind the leaders. With 18 games to play. That puts us in with a real chance. We should not give up on the title just yet. I'm not saying we will win it, but we can definitely be in contention for it, and with a bit of luck and good form, who knows what might happen? We have already seen UTD snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against Boro, why can't we do it in the title race as well? Especially since the title race has not even entered "injury time"? It's barely half time!
A freak of nature? Not quite. They have shown that they too can be error prone, as Stoke City showed. They are vulnerable at set pieces because one of their defenders, Azpilicueta, is small in stature and isn't going to be likely to win aerial duels. The only guy they have who can defend set pieces is Cahill.
Also, don't forget that the lynchpin of their defence is Luiz. Though he may not have been making errors so far, we've seen enough in the past 5 or 6 years to suggest that he is never far from a self-induced implosion caused by an inexplicable lapse in concentration. As a defender, Luiz is about as good as Smalling, and he is by no means a "freak of nature". Remember Brazil v Germany? That was one of the most embarrassing defensive performances of all time.
They haven't been conceding that many goals because teams have not yet adapted to their 3-4-3 formation. It is a formation never before seen in the PL and so teams are naturally still trying to figure it out. But if you look at it properly, their back three is marshaled by Luiz, and they have Cahill (who is not exactly inspiring) and Azpilicueta (who is not even a center back). And then they have these wing backs - Alonso who is average and Moses who is actually a forward. Teams should target Moses and Luiz, and try to use direct aerial play to unsettle Azpilicueta.
Now, who replaces Alonso and Moses if they get injured? Basically no one! What the hell is a "wing back" anyway? Half a winger and half a full back? Good luck trying to keep fit over the course of a full season with no rotation options. To play as half a winger and half a full back, one needs to run a huge distance in every game. They will tire out soon, Europe or no Europe.
One hell of a masterstroke then, seeing as he used 424 for the majority of preseason.
The spine of the team is right up there with world class talent though, I'd say only City can come close to that in the league currently. But the man did indeed have one hell of a job to do and under some pressure as well after the poor start.
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To be honest I don't see why so many teams have been caught off guard by Conte's 3 at the back system. He used it during the Euros. Managers (and their scouts) should be doing their homework. It was very predictable that he would use the system that he has been using with other teams.
That is a helluva lot of words to explain to me why my statement : Chelsea's defence are a freak of nature at this point is wrong
However I'd point out a) 13 wins on the bonce and b) what is it ? 6 goals conceded in those 13 matches and c) I said at this point !
That is a helluva lot of words to explain to me why my statement : Chelsea's defence are a freak of nature at this point is wrong
However I'd point out a) 13 wins on the bonce and b) what is it ? 6 goals conceded in those 13 matches and c) I said at this point !
Right, so 6 goals conceded in 13 games is approximately a goal every other game. Sure it may be the best in the league at the moment, but surely you'd admit that is hardly an outrageous stat. Teams in the past have gone on runs of 10 games or more conceding even fewer goals. I think Chelsea themselves went on a run with only 2 goals conceded in 15 games or something, when Jose first managed them. Their defenders were Terry, Gallas, Carvalho and Wayne Bridge in those days. And Arsenal under George Graham, with a back line of Dixon, Winterburn, Adams and Bould was even more dominant at the back and I think they once finished a season with less than 15 goals conceded.
You are still missing the point ... I said at this point ! And it is freakish since the average for a title winning side is ca. 0.97 goals conceded per match, Chelsea are currently at 0.68 for the season.
Chelsea have conceded 4 goals and not 6 in their current winning streak. Gahill OG v Man City, Eriksen v Spurs, and two v Stoke over the weekend.
0.68 is no big deal because previous teams have attained a ratio of less than 0.5 including Chelsea themselves when they were managed by Jose. They have the best defensive record in the league, but that doesnt mean that they have a freakish or mind blowing defence.
Before yesterday we had conceded 2 goals in the previous 12 league games. That is an extremely impressive stat by anyones standards.
Calling us 'error prone' because in our 13th consecutive win we conceded a couple of goals is just bizarre. We're also the only team in the PL who haven't conceded a headed goal according to the commentators in the last match, so I'm not sure where this idea that we're vulnerable to set pieces because of a lack of height comes from. Especially as David Luiz is 6'2.
Anyhow, may I make a humble suggestion? Seeing as I'm still a new member and all, I thought I would seek the approval of more experienced members -
Might I be so bold as to suggest that instead of fawning over Chelsea and basically rooting for them to win the league, how about we discuss their weaknesses, and perhaps come up with one or two workable ideas as to how they can be stopped?
I know we don't want Liverpool to win the title. I don't want that either. But Chelsea winning the title is also going to be a bitter pill to swallow, albeit a less bitter one. Most people here may believe that we have zero chance of winning the title this season. But nonetheless, there is no harm in planning ahead, looking upwards, and trying to involve ourselves in the conversation, right? After all, don't we want to be competing for the title next season if not this one?
So I believe that Chelsea are most vulnerable defending set pieces. Stoke, who have tall and physically imposing players, really unsettled them at the back. The only defender they have who can defend against aerial threats is Cahill and that's literally the one guy in their team with that capability now that Terry has been dropped.
Their other players are Azpilicueta, Kante, Alonso, Moses, Fabregas etc. All of them are not exactly big in stature and will struggle to deal with an aerial threat.
Their second weakness is Luiz. I wish opponents would target him more. We all know how he is prone to lapses in concentration, we've seen it before.
If only more teams would exploit these weaknesses, the title race would be closer. I hope Spurs beat them. With the gap at only 10 points with 18 games remaining, anything can happen.
Might I be so bold as to suggest that instead of fawning over Chelsea and basically rooting for them to win the league, how about we discuss their weaknesses, and perhaps come up with one or two workable ideas as to how they can be stopped?
I know we don't want Liverpool to win the title. I don't want that either. But Chelsea winning the title is also going to be a bitter pill to swallow, albeit a less bitter one. Most people here may believe that we have zero chance of winning the title this season. But nonetheless, there is no harm in planning ahead, looking upwards, and trying to involve ourselves in the conversation, right? After all, don't we want to be competing for the title next season if not this one?
So I believe that Chelsea are most vulnerable defending set pieces. Stoke, who have tall and physically imposing players, really unsettled them at the back. The only defender they have who can defend against aerial threats is Cahill and that's literally the one guy in their team with that capability now that Terry has been dropped.
Their other players are Azpilicueta, Kante, Alonso, Moses, Fabregas etc. All of them are not exactly big in stature and will struggle to deal with an aerial threat.
Their second weakness is Luiz. I wish opponents would target him more. We all know how he is prone to lapses in concentration, we've seen it before.
If only more teams would exploit these weaknesses, the title race would be closer. I hope Spurs beat them. With the gap at only 10 points with 18 games remaining, anything can happen.
Yeah right. If you say so. Very few would agree with you though. Just because it has been bettered previously does not mean it's not fantastic now.
If you just pretend that 6'2 David Luiz doesnt exist.
Alonso is also 6'2. Matic is 6'4, So in the back 7 you have 4 players over 6 foot tall.
Unlike the simplistic image people like to share on forums, David Luiz is an extremely talented defender. Yes he has concentration lapses occassionally, which is why he's being played in a system where any mistakes are likely to be covered by the other 2 CB's, and he's free to roam a lot more and use his world class distribution to its best effect.
Ah yes, if only those silly Premier League managers just had your deep footballing instincts..
Some of the posts in this thread. 
I genuinely can't tell if people are being serious.
I genuinely can't tell if people are being serious.
Although we don't have the biggest team I don't think we're lacking tall players. Matic has played the majority of the matches and is 6'4", Alonso is 6'2", David Luiz 6'2", Cahill 6'4", and Costa 6'2". Five players over six feet that potentially can defend set pieces should be enough, and since we haven't conceded any headed goals from set pieces it suggests that it is.
However I do agree with you that the title race is still open. It's only half way and there are a lot of games to be played still - the title isn't won in January.
Its outrageous to want Spurs to win against Chelsea and a lack of respect for the teams above us. We need to make Top 4 and Spurs are our direct rivals for a spot in the CL. Chelsea would be doing us a favor knocking points away from Spurs. At these hard times we need grounded perspective to our season, not RAWK-like grandeour delusions that will end with spoiled milk.
I hope Chelsea win the Title, as a matter of fact; anyone but Liverpool or The Citizens. Heck, I'd take Leeds over them.
You are also criminally undermining Azpilicuetta who has yet to lose ANY 1 on 1 headed challenges in the box for the past 27 games.
If Chelsea lose from Spurs, the difference between 1st and 5th will be just 7 points with 18 games to play.
The bad thing about these long winning runs is that once they end the next games become very difficult to win. There are many examples. Ancelotti's Real were on an amaizing run in the first half of 14/15 and when they lost their season collapsed and they won feck all. Barca had several losses in a row after Madrid put an end to their long unbeaten run last season and nearly lost the title after having a 9 points lead, etc etc. Watch Chelsea having a rough time once they lose points.
The bad thing about these long winning runs is that once they end the next games become very difficult to win. There are many examples. Ancelotti's Real were on an amaizing run in the first half of 14/15 and when they lost their season collapsed and they won feck all. Barca had several losses in a row after Madrid put an end to their long unbeaten run last season and nearly lost the title after having a 9 points lead, etc etc. Watch Chelsea having a rough time once they lose points.
I imagine the 5 managers from 2nd to 6th would all be wanting any of that group to beat Chelsea at this point in time, this of course may change as the season progresses.
Chelsea's record is outstanding this season.
I've not read through the thread admittedly, but how many teams have won 16 out of 19 since the league was cut to 20?
edit: well I see in 05-06 Mourinho led them to 17 wins and a single draw and loss. Fecking Chelsea!
I've not read through the thread admittedly, but how many teams have won 16 out of 19 since the league was cut to 20?
edit: well I see in 05-06 Mourinho led them to 17 wins and a single draw and loss. Fecking Chelsea!
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I have a feeling liverpool are going to win it this year.
A 6 point lead is feck all at this stage of the season.
A 6 point lead is feck all at this stage of the season.
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Will be interesting to see how Conte spends the Oscar money. With Terry and Zouma nearly back from injury I don't think we need to spunk a ton on a defender.
A great or poor January window could make or break our title run.
A great or poor January window could make or break our title run.
Alonso still worries me, although I'm hoping Kenedy gets a chance to compete for the spot. Not sure what else we need at the moment unless we're talking super purchases which dont usually happen in January.
Dunno where the hell that 7 pointer came from.6 point lead.
You've got 7 points on your mind.
Anyway 6 point lead,Il ninja edit there now
Just like when we lose our unbeaten run against United in 2004. But i am sure Conte would want an immediate response after a defeat.
Not really a masterstroke, just coaching your team different systems hence when he abruptly changed the system when arsenal was toying with them the players knew immediately how to play in the system.
I wouldn't say that. luiz, Matic, Cahil, Azpilicueta(never seen before as a Center back) is hardly the most illustrious list of names you could think of.
Of course we're only halfway through the season so anything can happen but consider this: if chelsea ger 39 points out of the next 19 games, they'd finish on 88 points. That would mean liverpool would need no less than 45 points to win the title. Arsenal 46. City and tottenham 49. United 52.
So if chelsea have a competent second half of the season, the others would need to be great. In city/united's cases, truly great. And that's assuming chelsea are only competent in the second half of the season. That team's likely good enough for another 40-42 points. For anyone else to have a shot at the title, they'd need chelsea to underperform AND have a great second half of the season themselves. Chelsea could lose all the head-to-head against the top six and still finish on 91 points
So if chelsea have a competent second half of the season, the others would need to be great. In city/united's cases, truly great. And that's assuming chelsea are only competent in the second half of the season. That team's likely good enough for another 40-42 points. For anyone else to have a shot at the title, they'd need chelsea to underperform AND have a great second half of the season themselves. Chelsea could lose all the head-to-head against the top six and still finish on 91 points
You don't have a chance of winning this time round: you would need a) an almost untainted perfect run of results your end, b) Chelsea and Liverpool would need to go into meltdown the likes of which we haven't seen in living memory from a second and first place side.
That said next season I am sure you will challenge, positive infact. You most of the tools, I just wonder if Zlatan can have another season such as this.
Your run has been good but lets not get ahead of ourselves, three of the five wins have been against bottom six sides, Spurs the only side of any calibre that you have beaten. I read your breakdown of results on the other page alluding to your league position being distorted or not reflecting how you've played but giving away either a) last minute goals or b) goals against the run of play, c) not seeing games out are just part and parcel of the game. Every team can pigeon hole their results to the extent you have with Utd's and say "oh the league doesn't reflect our true position".
If Chelsea are so vulnerable to set pieces then how comes that hasn't been more apparent during games and why haven't they conceded more from set plays? Most of your points are just pie in the sky and believe I am no Chelsea fan.
That said next season I am sure you will challenge, positive infact. You most of the tools, I just wonder if Zlatan can have another season such as this.
Your run has been good but lets not get ahead of ourselves, three of the five wins have been against bottom six sides, Spurs the only side of any calibre that you have beaten. I read your breakdown of results on the other page alluding to your league position being distorted or not reflecting how you've played but giving away either a) last minute goals or b) goals against the run of play, c) not seeing games out are just part and parcel of the game. Every team can pigeon hole their results to the extent you have with Utd's and say "oh the league doesn't reflect our true position".
If Chelsea are so vulnerable to set pieces then how comes that hasn't been more apparent during games and why haven't they conceded more from set plays? Most of your points are just pie in the sky and believe I am no Chelsea fan.
I saw this on Twitter and thought I'd put it in here. I'm not entirely sure what it all means but it seemed relevant.
Heres why its over or there abouts for everyone bar Liverpool, imho. if Chelsea are to say win 12 more games draw 5 and lose 2 which seems wobbly but reasonable. That would put them on 90 pts.
This would rely on Chelsea being a full 8 points worse in the second half of the season than the first and the rivals would still need.
Liverpool currently on 43 would have to go even better than their start, so we're looking at 15 w 2d 2l or dropping no more than 8 points.
Arsenal can only drop 5 pts. So would need 16 wins 2 draws and 1 loss.
City and Spurs (miracle time here) 51 points from 19 games, thats 17 wins at least or 16 wins and 3 draws so unbeaten.
United would need just the measly 18 wins of 19. Nothing else will do not even 17 wins and 2 draws.
Turn one of those Chelsea draws into another win and United need to win 19 of 19, City, Spurs and Arsenal 18 or 19 and Liverpool could only afford one loss.
The only way it becomes tight is if Chelsea implode I'm afraid and I don't see them being 10 points worse in the seasons second half though I do see them having a tough January.
This would rely on Chelsea being a full 8 points worse in the second half of the season than the first and the rivals would still need.
Liverpool currently on 43 would have to go even better than their start, so we're looking at 15 w 2d 2l or dropping no more than 8 points.
Arsenal can only drop 5 pts. So would need 16 wins 2 draws and 1 loss.
City and Spurs (miracle time here) 51 points from 19 games, thats 17 wins at least or 16 wins and 3 draws so unbeaten.
United would need just the measly 18 wins of 19. Nothing else will do not even 17 wins and 2 draws.
Turn one of those Chelsea draws into another win and United need to win 19 of 19, City, Spurs and Arsenal 18 or 19 and Liverpool could only afford one loss.
The only way it becomes tight is if Chelsea implode I'm afraid and I don't see them being 10 points worse in the seasons second half though I do see them having a tough January.
Correct. Title talk for Utd at this point is just a pipedream and put unnecessary pressure on the team. Same goes for City, Spurs and Arsenal, but especially for Utd, since 2 of our last 3 games are away to Spuds and Arse.
Chelsea winning the league is like eating a bowl of Lucky Charms compared to Liverpool winning, a different league altogether.
Its over cause Chelsea look tough to draw against let alone beat. On top of that Conte's teams are notoriously fit due to his old fashion coaching techniques and he even expects them to be better in the second half of the season. All this collapse talk is nothing but hopeless hope. It really is them against the record points total unless they get a barrage of injuries.
Yes guys I know it will be tough to overtake Chelsea but let's not write ourselves off at the halfway point and at least see where we are at the end of February. It's not adding pressure on the team. It's just not losing hope until it actually becomes impossible. At this stage nothing is impossible. We are playing well, we have an excellent squad, and we have the best manager in the league. Let's see if we can carry on our good run until March and close the gap. If we were only 5 or 6 points behind at that stage, I think no one would believe it to be impossible.
Liverpool can do it. We have a good record against them and beat them earlier in the season at their place; we haven't lost at Anfield for almost a calendar year, the last time was against your lot last January; united are the only top six side we have left to play away from home and we have played more home games than away ones too. Simply put if we beat them then we have halved the deficit between us and it's game on.
As Herr Klopp said, in-spite of their awesome run they still can't shake us off. Must be kind of annoying that in spite of 14 successive wins we are only one round of games away from being 3 points off them.
As Herr Klopp said, in-spite of their awesome run they still can't shake us off. Must be kind of annoying that in spite of 14 successive wins we are only one round of games away from being 3 points off them.
I'm only putting us at an outside chance, unless we go on some incredible run and do something like win 17 and draw 2, which I just don't see happening. We are going to drop silly points, and all it needs is for us to do a couple of draws and a loss to lose out in the title race.
Thanks for posting, I've been searching for an update just a few days ago.
Below is the table enlarged.
The most interesting columns are the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th from the left:
expected goals for (xG), expected goals against (xGA), difference of xG and xGA (xGD expected goal difference), comparison of that expected goal difference versus actual GD.
Looking at these columns and also doing some maths not displayed in the table, according to the xG models used, Chelsea scored about 8 goals more than the model would have predicted. They also conceded 2.6 less than the model predicted. That's how their '10.5' in the xGD vs GD column result, so it's fair to say that based on those models, Chelsea overperformed in both departments, both in attack and defence, more pronounced though in attack.
Similarly, Liverpool overperformed in attack (by about 7 goals) and slightly underperformed in defence (by about 4 goals). I don't have the time now to look it up but well possible that the latter is due to Karius against Bournemouth as IIRC, you were pretty okay in defence too in early December; I may check this later.
United should have two goals more than they have and about 2 goals less. So they underperform slightly in both departments but have decreased the gap in comparison to early December.
For a differentiated view, it's also interesting to rank the xG and xGA columns:
City created more quality chances than anybody else (expressed via the number 42.7), followed by Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal, United.
Defensively, Chelsea allowed the fewest quality shots (expressed via the number 15.6), followed by Liverpool (won't bode well with those Caf users who emphatically insist on how poor your/Liverpool's defence is
), United, Spurs, City, Southampton, West Brom and Arsenal.Columns 8 and 9 I don't find particularly helpful in the current situation (xG and xGA adjusted to 90 minutes) as long as all teams have played the same amount of games and roughly the same minutes.
Columns 10 and 11 just show the number of shots taken and conceded per game without evaluating quality, columns 12 and 13 display conversion rates (most are used to goals per shot but shots required per goal gives you the same idea). The guy who's doing it like that on his blog like this also has four categories each for attack and defence depending on a team's performance, hence the next two columns.
The 4th and 3rd column from the right show expected goals for per shot taken (xGpSH) and expected goals against per shot conceded (xGAgSH), in other words, how many shots do you need to create quality shots (or allow your opponent to create quality shots).
TSR is total shots ratio which I personally find still valuable because it gives you the ratio at first glance (total shots taken / (total shots taken + total shots conceded) ) .
PDO is a funny thing and was supposed to reflect the amount of luck a team has. The concept (that luck regresses over a season) has been tossed by some stats guys (e.g. 11tegen11) but others still use it.
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I look at it another way. Chelsea were my tip to win the PL before the season started, I still think they will. However IF we are to have any chance of overtaking them (and this goes for Arsenal & Spurs too - I think City and United are just those few points too far back for serious consideration) then we will need a helping hand (e.g. Spurs beating them on Wednesday) AND us to beat them when they come to Anfield AND match their results thereafter (whether they win, lose or draw). That is a very unlikely series of events, but not beyond the realms of possibility.
Why are you so eager to write off UTD?
Applying the same logic that you used, if Spurs beat Chelsea, and Liverpool also beat Chelsea, and we beat Chelsea at Old Trafford and match their results (whether they win/lose or draw) and do the same for Liverpool (i.e. beat Liverpool at Old Trafford and then match their results) I believe that even if UTD doesn't win the title, we will be in the race until April or May.
That Tottenham game on Wednesday is going to be a cracker. After seeing that disgrace of a game Liverpool/City played the other night I'm definitely looking forward to that one.