2013 Major League Baseball (MLB)
- Thread starter MrMarcello
- Start date
ffs Rangers
Yankees prepping to throw around another huge bundle of cash. McCann for 85mil over 5 or 6 years, that is a long time for a catcher especially one who is about to turn 30.
They also are interested in Beltran, Ellsbury, Drew, and resigning Cano. Plus probably others.
They also are interested in Beltran, Ellsbury, Drew, and resigning Cano. Plus probably others.
The Insler for Fielder (and cash) doesn't bother me as a Texas fan. The club needed a massive upgrade at first base and a left-handed hitter with power. Check. He'll hit 40+ with the RF porch and hot/warm air. This opens the door for Profar at 2B. Moreland can be a potential trade piece, or gives the club a decent backup option at 1B/DH.
Now, they need to find a way to get David Price. Rumors it may cost Profar, or another top tier prospect, along with a package of 1-2 additional prospects, possibly a young pitcher like Ogando, Perez, or Tepesch. Price has a $4m bonus option thingy due in the spring before the season starts, which the Rays are rumored to rather not pay. This means any acquiring club will be asked to pick up this bonus option thingy and thus could lower the prospect "price" i.e. a club like Texas might could get away with not dealing Profar by agreeing to pick up the bonus option thingy. Texas has a couple "stud" middle infield prospects that might be enticing. Another option could see them trade Profar and bring in a moneyball 2B for a year or two, while a prospect develops, or take a chance on Brian Roberts on a minimum deal with incentives.
Another option could see Texas offer Cano a massive deal, in the $200m/8-yrs range, and trading Profar for pitching (Yanks might like Profar if they lose Cano; he could move over to SS after Jeter retires). Texas has some serious loot, up there with LA/CAA/NYY due to their massive TV contract. A middle order lineup of Cano-Fielder-Beltre is scary, and then find a good leadoff hitter for the lineup. Add Price to the staff for a potential Darvish-Price-Holland-Perez-Harrison rotation is mouthwatering, if the latter three can remain healthy for 20+ starts (insert Ogando/Tepesch if Perez is traded). This could also send Ogando back to the bullpen, which I would prefer.
I've both heard and read most execs doubt Cano will get more than 8 years and much less than $30m per year. He'll be 32 (if we believe his listed birthdate
) which puts him past 40 on a 10-yr deal. Some have speculated his $300m/10-yrs demand, if true, has actually hurt his FA courting. It's argued he's better off asking for $25m-yr over 6-8 years to bring in a handful of clubs and let the bidding escalate. As it stands, there's only the Yankees in his market (and they're not budging in the slightest) unless the Dodgers decide to throw a ridiculous offer at him (which Magic has supposedly said no so far) or another club toss bags of money at him. This should be interesting.
Now, they need to find a way to get David Price. Rumors it may cost Profar, or another top tier prospect, along with a package of 1-2 additional prospects, possibly a young pitcher like Ogando, Perez, or Tepesch. Price has a $4m bonus option thingy due in the spring before the season starts, which the Rays are rumored to rather not pay. This means any acquiring club will be asked to pick up this bonus option thingy and thus could lower the prospect "price" i.e. a club like Texas might could get away with not dealing Profar by agreeing to pick up the bonus option thingy. Texas has a couple "stud" middle infield prospects that might be enticing. Another option could see them trade Profar and bring in a moneyball 2B for a year or two, while a prospect develops, or take a chance on Brian Roberts on a minimum deal with incentives.
Another option could see Texas offer Cano a massive deal, in the $200m/8-yrs range, and trading Profar for pitching (Yanks might like Profar if they lose Cano; he could move over to SS after Jeter retires). Texas has some serious loot, up there with LA/CAA/NYY due to their massive TV contract. A middle order lineup of Cano-Fielder-Beltre is scary, and then find a good leadoff hitter for the lineup. Add Price to the staff for a potential Darvish-Price-Holland-Perez-Harrison rotation is mouthwatering, if the latter three can remain healthy for 20+ starts (insert Ogando/Tepesch if Perez is traded). This could also send Ogando back to the bullpen, which I would prefer.
I've both heard and read most execs doubt Cano will get more than 8 years and much less than $30m per year. He'll be 32 (if we believe his listed birthdate
) which puts him past 40 on a 10-yr deal. Some have speculated his $300m/10-yrs demand, if true, has actually hurt his FA courting. It's argued he's better off asking for $25m-yr over 6-8 years to bring in a handful of clubs and let the bidding escalate. As it stands, there's only the Yankees in his market (and they're not budging in the slightest) unless the Dodgers decide to throw a ridiculous offer at him (which Magic has supposedly said no so far) or another club toss bags of money at him. This should be interesting.And a catcher that isn't very good at throwing out base runners and is average defensively. Good power hitting catcher but a bad OBP/OPS and seems to have peaked if his last two years are a sign of trajectory. Texas was interested as well but glad the Yanks paid 17m per year. Buyer beware. One positive is his age - 29 - so he should perform long enough for Yanks to get their money's worth even if overpaying (they can).
Braves fans are pissed. He was one of those lifetime Braves they thought. Some hate him now.
Kinsler bWAR:
2013 - 4.9
2012 - 2.1
2011 - 7.0
2010 - 4.2
(Total - 18.2)
Fielder bWAR:
2013 - 1.7
2012 - 4.6
2011 - 4.9
2010 - 1.7
(Total - 12.9)
Tigers get the better player and dump $76m net in salary? And that's not to mention that there's a much better chance Kinsler produces closer to his career average for the length of his contract. I know the Rangers needed a first baseman and there was a bit of a logjam in the infield but yeesh. If you were that desperate for a first baseman why not give Napoli 4/$70? Or go over 6/$68 on Abreu considering they were second-highest bidder. Instead of getting Fielder for 7/$138 and Kinsler. Alright Kinsler probably doesn't have enormous trade value if you're giving up no cash but with the amount of teams that could do with a second baseman I could have seen him picking up some nice pieces.
They shouldn't trade Profar at all.
Yeah, giving up 12 years of team control of the recent best prospect in baseball and a really nice prospect like Luke Jackson for 2 years of David Price would be insane. Also not sure I'd be too keen to move Ogando back to the bullpen, 3.11 ERA last year mainly as a starter? 3.51 ERA in 2011 exclusively as a starter? Alright he's been injured but is that necessarily from being a starter over a reliever?
Catcher was a blackhole for offense for the Yankees as soon as Cervelli went down, Stewarts noodle bat and Romine not figuring out how to hit until July really sucked offense away from an already poor offense team. McCann is a power hitting catcher with a tailor made swing for the short porch, he's also one of the better pitch framers in baseball. You whack him into the middle of the order and have Cervelli backing him up they go from a position of weakness to a position of strength and can trade one of Murphy or Romine should they need to. They have high hopes for Gary Sanchez but he is maybe 3-4 years away from being big league ready, McCann was basically a no brainer deal even if its bit of an overpay.
McCann was also coming off major shoulder surgery last season, I wouldn't read too much into the trajectory yet.
White Sox badly need a catcher, our two catchers in 2013 put up a cool -0.1 and -0.5 bWAR respectively. Hope we don't go for Salty and his massive 2013 BABIP. Dioner Navarro if he's cheap enough or pick up someone like George Kottaras and that'd do me, since they 99.9% likely don't compete anyway.
Moving Ogando to the bullpen to make way for Price would be a no-brainer decision, unless it's another pitcher being moved. I'll leave that up to the management to make the best decision.
Irregardless of WAR, which I don't really care for it anyhow, the trade has its merits for Texas. Career .389 OBP (over .400 2008-2011), .916 OPS (twice over 1.000), and an RBI machine. Texas needs that kind of production in the middle of the lineup and he provides better protection to Beltre. Detroit's park vs Texas park - just watch Kinsler's numbers drop as well (career .273 BAA, .349 OBP, .454 SLG, .804 OPS). Detroit get a good player with a bloated contract as well (due $57m over next four years and a $12m team option in the fifth year). So Texas adds $81m in salary over seven years but gets a big upgrade offensively.
I agree to not trade Profar and they probably will not.
Irregardless of WAR, which I don't really care for it anyhow, the trade has its merits for Texas. Career .389 OBP (over .400 2008-2011), .916 OPS (twice over 1.000), and an RBI machine. Texas needs that kind of production in the middle of the lineup and he provides better protection to Beltre. Detroit's park vs Texas park - just watch Kinsler's numbers drop as well (career .273 BAA, .349 OBP, .454 SLG, .804 OPS). Detroit get a good player with a bloated contract as well (due $57m over next four years and a $12m team option in the fifth year). So Texas adds $81m in salary over seven years but gets a big upgrade offensively.
I agree to not trade Profar and they probably will not.
A no-brainer to shift a guy with a 3.11 ERA last year for a guy with a 3.33, a guy who will be a free agent in 2 years (and be paid $26m for those 2), in the process giving up 12 years of control of the guy who was recently the #1 prospect in all of baseball and another top 10 system prospect?
Obvious Price >> Ogando but for all that, not a chance.
Obvious Price >> Ogando but for all that, not a chance.
He started 29 games in 2011 and went to the pen in 2012 - it's not unprecedented.
Getting Price, one of the top lefties in the game, at the prospect of moving Ogando (12 years of control, wtf are you on about?) to the bullpen, or even to the back end of the rotation, is a no-brainer. Ogando had 7 quality starts from 18 games started (0 complete games; 5 relief appearances); Price had 24 quality starts from 27 games started. Price is an innings eater, Ogando tends to fatigue after a few innings.
Price has a career 3.19 ERA as a starter (only), and is one of the top starters in the league, so it's moot to attempt to compare Ogando's 2013 ERA to Price's 2013 ERA. Any fool can see who the better pitcher is. Price is not a health risk either.
Ogado's ERA rises to 3.24 when taking away his relief appearances (35 R in 97.2 IP, vs 1 ER in 6.2 IP). His career starting ERA is around the 3.40 range; he had a 1.30 ERA in 2010 as a reliever which greatly affects his career ERA. He's shown he can be a serviceable starter but has proven to be a much more valuable reliever. He's like that guy the Yanks had in the late 90s that later went to Boston, Mendoza or something, that could start and relieve effectively.
Texas would obviously work on a long-term contract by acquiring Price. Any club would most likely do the same. Another moot point on two years control. Ogando will never put Texas over the AL hump, Price could.
Getting Price, one of the top lefties in the game, at the prospect of moving Ogando (12 years of control, wtf are you on about?) to the bullpen, or even to the back end of the rotation, is a no-brainer. Ogando had 7 quality starts from 18 games started (0 complete games; 5 relief appearances); Price had 24 quality starts from 27 games started. Price is an innings eater, Ogando tends to fatigue after a few innings.
Price has a career 3.19 ERA as a starter (only), and is one of the top starters in the league, so it's moot to attempt to compare Ogando's 2013 ERA to Price's 2013 ERA. Any fool can see who the better pitcher is. Price is not a health risk either.
Ogado's ERA rises to 3.24 when taking away his relief appearances (35 R in 97.2 IP, vs 1 ER in 6.2 IP). His career starting ERA is around the 3.40 range; he had a 1.30 ERA in 2010 as a reliever which greatly affects his career ERA. He's shown he can be a serviceable starter but has proven to be a much more valuable reliever. He's like that guy the Yanks had in the late 90s that later went to Boston, Mendoza or something, that could start and relieve effectively.
Texas would obviously work on a long-term contract by acquiring Price. Any club would most likely do the same. Another moot point on two years control. Ogando will never put Texas over the AL hump, Price could.
- I specifically said Price was the better pitcher
- My argument is that he's not better enough for what Texas would have to give up
- The 12 years of control refers to the two top prospects you'd have to give up for him, Profar and Jackson in a rumour I saw (which concluded that would not be enough)
- It's not a moot point, because you're probably going to have to about double his annual salary with a long-term contract
In his 4 full seasons Price has been worth 4.8, 2.8, 6.8 and 2.8 WAR. Even with down-year production, he'll comfortably outperform his last 2 years of arb. With any extension though he's probably going to perform to about his salary. Unless you're extremely pessimistic about the recent number 1 prospect (preceding 2 number 1 prospects have put up WARs of 9 and 9.2 in the last 2 seasons) in all of baseball, and whoever else you end up shipping, it's a terrible trade value wise. Now I get that for a team like the Rangers you might say that value isn't as important as it is to other teams and Price over Ogando in the rotation could put them over the hump with all things being equal, but you just made a (bad) trade to free up space for Profar to play every day, why on earth would you even consider trading Profar?
And yeah I love WAR. WAR is it, man.
Players with Fielder's body type don't age well. As for the difference in ballpark, it's not really that much off. Park Factors have it at 4% more runs scored in Arlington than Detroit. The thing with Kinsler is, Texas could have given him away. Then they could have taken the money and invested it much more wisely. Napoli, Cruz, Morales, Loney, Hart and Morneau are all first base types that could be had for a lot cheaper and a lot shorter commitment.
Finally, you will realize this coming year when you watch Prince Fielder play every day just what a horrible fielder and baserunner he is. I'm not exaggerating when I say he is literally the worst fielder I have ever watched on a regular basis. His baserunning isn't much better. He is just so incredibly frustrating.
It's a big risk that Texas can afford to take, and they had tried to offload Kinsler in the previous offseason with zero takers (he rebounded with a very good 2013 after a poor 2012 that made a trade more tasty for another club). They still have Moreland (a good defensive 1B) and perhaps could use Prince as a DH if necessary, albeit a hefty pricetag for a DH. Texas has a big advantage for left-handed hitters with the RF/RC porch and circular air flow. They're now rumored to go after Choo albeit he might cost more than they would prefer. He does get on base frequently and may be worth overpaying to plug in the leadoff or second hitter spot.
Another way of looking at the deal is Kinsler will earn $57m and Fielder $96m over the next four years. Detroit is paying $30m of that, assuming all in a lump sum or structured over x years, greatly reducing the financial impact. Kinsler makes $16m in each of 2014 and 2015, $14m in 2016, Fielder makes $24m each year. If Detroit is kicking in $6m per, that means Texas is paying $18m each season (for first five years out of seven), only $2m more than Kinsler ($4m more in 2016) while getting more power in the lineup and opening up 2B for Profar. It's when Fielder gets to the back end of the contract the true cost will be felt, especially if/when he's hampered by injuries and/or declining overall (and I do take into account that fat body will eventually break down).
The 4% run production is not taking into account Texas lost Hamilton and Napoli, and Cruz was suspended for the last 1/3 the season, greatly reducing output compared to previous seasons. They also lost the LH power that takes advantage of the RF porch dimensions ('326 down the line, '334-381 along porch). Just like climate change, it's a period not a sole season/year that reflects a true picture of ballpark advantages as well as the hitters in said lineup.
A ballpark overlay shows Comerica has slightly shorter LF & RF dimensions but a much deeper LC, CF, and RC. The design of the park allows wind to enter and circle around which allows fly balls to carry further, resulting in more RF/RC/CF homeruns (and hits) than under other conditions would normally allow.
http://hittrackeronline.com/ballpark_overlay.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rangers_Ballpark_in_Arlington#Field_dimensions
http://hittrackeronline.com/stadiums.php and http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
Year - Park - HRs - GP - Avg - RS factor
2013 - Comerica - 153 - 81 - 1.89 - 1.139
2013 - Arlington -159 - 82 - 1.94 - 0.985
2012 - Comerica - 159 - 81 - 1.96 - 1.071
2012 - Arlington - 202 - 81 - 2.49 - 1.183
2011 - Comerica - 158 - 81 - 1.96 - 1.061
2011 - Arlington - 228 - 81 - 2.81 - 1.409
2010 - Comerica - 141 - 81 - 1.74 - 0.981
2010 - Arlington - 174 - 81 - 2.15 - 1.091
2009 - Comerica - 179 - 81 - 2.21 - 1.026
2009 - Arlington - 215 - 81 - 2.65 - 1.085
2008 - Comerica - 202 - 81 - 2.49 - 1.077
2008 - Arlington - 204 - 81 - 2.52 - 1.142
2007 - Comerica - 187 - 81 - 2.31 - 1.051
2007 - Arlington - n/a - 81 - n/a - 0.979
2006 - Comerica - 161 - 81 - 1.99 - 0.980
2006 - Arlington - 179 - 81 - 2.21 - 1.081
8yr avg - Comerica - 1340 - 648 - 2.07 - 1.048 (8.386)
High 202, Low 141, Avg 167.5
7yr avg - Arlington - 1361 - 568 - 2.40 - 1.119 (8.955)*
High 228, Low 159, Avg 194.4, +13.75% HR, +6.3% Runs
*8-year average for runs factor but only 7 for HRs due to lack of data for 2007
Another way of looking at the deal is Kinsler will earn $57m and Fielder $96m over the next four years. Detroit is paying $30m of that, assuming all in a lump sum or structured over x years, greatly reducing the financial impact. Kinsler makes $16m in each of 2014 and 2015, $14m in 2016, Fielder makes $24m each year. If Detroit is kicking in $6m per, that means Texas is paying $18m each season (for first five years out of seven), only $2m more than Kinsler ($4m more in 2016) while getting more power in the lineup and opening up 2B for Profar. It's when Fielder gets to the back end of the contract the true cost will be felt, especially if/when he's hampered by injuries and/or declining overall (and I do take into account that fat body will eventually break down).
The 4% run production is not taking into account Texas lost Hamilton and Napoli, and Cruz was suspended for the last 1/3 the season, greatly reducing output compared to previous seasons. They also lost the LH power that takes advantage of the RF porch dimensions ('326 down the line, '334-381 along porch). Just like climate change, it's a period not a sole season/year that reflects a true picture of ballpark advantages as well as the hitters in said lineup.
A ballpark overlay shows Comerica has slightly shorter LF & RF dimensions but a much deeper LC, CF, and RC. The design of the park allows wind to enter and circle around which allows fly balls to carry further, resulting in more RF/RC/CF homeruns (and hits) than under other conditions would normally allow.
http://hittrackeronline.com/ballpark_overlay.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rangers_Ballpark_in_Arlington#Field_dimensions
http://hittrackeronline.com/stadiums.php and http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
Year - Park - HRs - GP - Avg - RS factor
2013 - Comerica - 153 - 81 - 1.89 - 1.139
2013 - Arlington -159 - 82 - 1.94 - 0.985
2012 - Comerica - 159 - 81 - 1.96 - 1.071
2012 - Arlington - 202 - 81 - 2.49 - 1.183
2011 - Comerica - 158 - 81 - 1.96 - 1.061
2011 - Arlington - 228 - 81 - 2.81 - 1.409
2010 - Comerica - 141 - 81 - 1.74 - 0.981
2010 - Arlington - 174 - 81 - 2.15 - 1.091
2009 - Comerica - 179 - 81 - 2.21 - 1.026
2009 - Arlington - 215 - 81 - 2.65 - 1.085
2008 - Comerica - 202 - 81 - 2.49 - 1.077
2008 - Arlington - 204 - 81 - 2.52 - 1.142
2007 - Comerica - 187 - 81 - 2.31 - 1.051
2007 - Arlington - n/a - 81 - n/a - 0.979
2006 - Comerica - 161 - 81 - 1.99 - 0.980
2006 - Arlington - 179 - 81 - 2.21 - 1.081
8yr avg - Comerica - 1340 - 648 - 2.07 - 1.048 (8.386)
High 202, Low 141, Avg 167.5
7yr avg - Arlington - 1361 - 568 - 2.40 - 1.119 (8.955)*
High 228, Low 159, Avg 194.4, +13.75% HR, +6.3% Runs
*8-year average for runs factor but only 7 for HRs due to lack of data for 2007
Should be noted that in this poor year he still had more bWAR than Fielder in 2 out of his last 4 years.
Good stuff. Tigers should win the pennant now.
I see Ryan Braun is sorry for his actions and would never have done what he did if he could go back in time. No, he would just not have the press conference to slander a guy and would do better at hiding his steroid usage. The guy is a cnut and pathological liar. I too would have juiced in my teens into my twenties if the end result was a bloated contract and MVP awards.
I see Ryan Braun is sorry for his actions and would never have done what he did if he could go back in time. No, he would just not have the press conference to slander a guy and would do better at hiding his steroid usage. The guy is a cnut and pathological liar. I too would have juiced in my teens into my twenties if the end result was a bloated contract and MVP awards.
Phew, just when I was worried the Tigers were getting too smart, they trade Fister away for Lombardozzi, Krol and Ray. Horrible, horrible trade.
I had a really good gif of the White Sox doing something dumb but Dombrowski just traded it for a backup infielder.
Why did he do this bad, awful trade Eboue
It totally sucks. When I heard Fister was traded, I thought "we better have gotten more than Storen". WE DIDN'T EVEN GET STOREN.
This is fecking retarded.
This is fecking retarded.
I rate Fister, that looks a really poor haul for him.
If that's all you get why not trade away Porcello, who is worse and a free agent in the same year as Fister? Although trading Scherzer might have been the best move of all: stock never going to be higher, only one year of team control, Boras client.
Definitely should have traded Scherzer. Or if you trade Fister, get Rendon or something.
Remember when the Rays traded someone only slightly better and also more expensive, for the same amount of years, and got back Wil Myers?
Fister is better than Shields.
Debatable. But still, lol.
Meanwhile, the White Sox are busy signing Tyler Flowers to a one-year contract. The Central is ours.
Meanwhile, the White Sox are busy signing Tyler Flowers to a one-year contract. The Central is ours.
Fister could be the mot under rated pitcher in the league.
You can get him for Charlie Furbush and a backup infielder
Dave now knows how it feels to be Dombrowski'd now...not the greatest with long term contracts, but he hasn't made this big of a mistake through a trade
You can get him for Charlie Furbush and a backup infielder
Dave now knows how it feels to be Dombrowski'd now...not the greatest with long term contracts, but he hasn't made this big of a mistake through a trade
Is the Fister trade a financial move, i.e. to allocate Fister's money to Scherzer?
Ellsbury to Yanks according to sources. 7 years, $153m. That's Cano out. Will this be another Damon-esque overreach by the Yanks?
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10075982/jacoby-ellsbury-new-york-yankees-agree-contract
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10075982/jacoby-ellsbury-new-york-yankees-agree-contract
McCann with one arm would be better offensively than what we got from out catchers last year.
They really are not messing around are they, $189 is either out the window or they are letting Cano walk and hoping A-Rod is suspended.
Closed to signing Kelly Johnson too, rumour is they want atleast 1 starter too outside of a bid for Tanaka.
Tanaka is going to kill it in MLB. I think he'll be a minimum 4-win pitcher straight away.
Konerko coming back with the White Sox. Yeesh. Arguably the worst player in the majors last year.
Did he get a raise as well?
It's not been announced yet. If it's anything close to the $13m he made last year then I'll go schizo.
Good baseball move for a couple of seasons provided Ellsbury stays healthy. Only problem is the length of the deal 4 years would have been better.
They are getting desperate in NY, the farm system seems thin, they are not winning, they just saw their arch rivals win another title, so they do what they always do, throw a bunch of money around. Part of me hoping A-rod wins his case and sticks the Yankees with a big salary for a player they do not want.
150 million big ones for a singles hitter. Big lol.