Gaming 1836 - The Europa Universalis 4 Experiment (Hands-off) - Map & stats in second post - Final Map and Stats update - Timelapse video

You're the junior partner in a Personal Union with @Solius, so you're not eligible to be a Great Power. You still get all your own money and stuff, but you're technically a subject.

How does that work when Solius had King Redsky for ages. :lol:

This royalty stuff goes right over my head, probably why Solius assimilated me from within. The little shite hawk.
 
Start of 1707 country updates
1707 Country Updates - part 1 (click to expand)


KirkDuyt

Let's start with the Holy Roman Emperor, @KirkDuyt. My prediction for him last time was: "He's going to try to get his core provinces back, kicking off a big European war with Eboue." While he did get involved in at least two big wars that involved @Eboue, he didn't actually initiate any of them. Well I say that, but he did make the dubious decision to ally small countries that would definitely find themselves in a war with someone who wanted to conquer them. And they did. And KirkDuyt was dragged into it. As a result, he's smaller than ever and currently on his third capital - how very Dutch of him. He's got some minor colonial holdings, but it's no empire. His only hope for relevancy at this point is that Eboue is going to get ganged up on, and maybe the Dutch cores will be returned to their original owner.

Prediction: That's not going to happen, and KirkDuyt is going to be the next to be either fully eliminated or at least banished to the Americas.

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Samid

Next up we've got @Samid, who is quietly having a strong game. There haven't really been any big flashy moves, but he's gradually chipped away at the likes of @Salt Bailly and particularly @PSV, and now he's actually pretty big. His army is pretty big too. My prediction for him was: "he's going to continue nibbling on PSV and Salt Bailly, and maybe finish PSV completely." That was pretty accurate, but it wasn't a very difficult prediction to make. He's one of the countries completely without a colonial empire, but colonial empires can in many ways make you into a paper tiger. Samid's army might not be the largest around, but at least it'll be right where he needs it to be - if he needs it. Queen Agné Samid is a perfectly servicable ruler, and he's got some pretty solid allies, so there's every chance he can continue is rise in Eastern Europe.

Prediction: he's going to continue continuing nibbling on PSV and Salt Bailly, and maybe finish PSV completely.

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Andycoleno9

@Andycoleno9 is another who has built up a decently sized realm, but the effects might not be as obvious as they were with @Samid. His army isn't particularly big, he doesn't make a lot of money, and his development level is middling. He's got a strong set of allies, though. As long as he can avoid with the juggernaut to his east, @hobbers, he should be in a decent position to leverage those allies into some more territorial gains. The one downside to his set of allies is that @PSV might well drag him into wars with the likes of Samid and @BootsyCollins, without his own allies to back him up. Another challenge is that the best target for conquest, @V.O., is currently the junior partner of a personal union with @P-Nut, who is allied to - who else? - @hobbers. If that turns into a war, he could easily be the new @Denis79. At least he's got a good ruler, with Duchess Elisa a great 6/4/5 (and good traits to boot, in midas touched, incorruptible and entrepreneur). My earlier prediction: "One of his small friends is going to get him into big trouble. Probably Prussia, although they might be about to be conquered". Prussia was conquered almost immediately, so they were unable to drag andy into something dumb.

Prediction: he's going to find himself at war with @hobbers, and he's not going to like it. Even if he has Solius on his side that might be a bridge too far.

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BootsyCollins

@BootsyCollins has been on the up for a quite a while, after a slow (or rather completely static) start. He did just run into his first bit of adversity in quite some time, with his attempt at finishing off his far-eastern neighbour of Oirat turning into Oirat getting five of his provinces instead. The Asians are not to be trifled with here, as they have pretty much the same technology level as the Europeans. In this case it was Oirat's Japanese allies that proved the big hurdle. All that said, I very much doubt that's going to be the final chapter of Bootsy's eastern adventures. He's got a big army (with both defensive and quality ideas to bolster make it better, and quantity to make it bigger). On the other hand, he's got a nearly useless monarch in Emperor Mikael, a miserable 0/0/3 with the indulgent trait to boot. As if that wasn't bad enough, he's got no heir, and if Mikael the dullard died today that would be a Succession War between @Eboue and @Samid. My original prediction was: "Having finished with Vidyoyo, he's going to keep attacking @Salt Bailly and their Nogai eastern neighbour." Well, the former is smaller than he was last update, and the latter doesn't even exist any more.

Prediction: he's going to get a new heir and avoid the personal union, and he's going to continue colonizing and conquering the East. He'll reach the Pacific before 1800.

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Salt Bailly

There haven't been too many updates including @Salt Bailly lately, and the ones he's been part in have been wholly negative. At least two or three have involved @Samid and @BootsyCollins taking pieces of his territory off him. That pretty well matches my prediction, which was: "he's going to continue getting picked on by @Samid and @BootsyCollins, particularly the latter turning into something of a beast. BeastyCollins." BeastyCollins indeed. That doesn't necessarily mean he's down and out, though. We're heading into the 18th century and the Age of Revolutions, which will mean wars are going to be more and more impactful. That could obviously be very bad for Salt Bailly if he finds himself on the wrong end of a war, but he could also find himself in a position to retake some of that lost territory (striped in green). He could even find himself teaming up with @PSV to get payback on Samid. Grand Niaz Saveliy Hobbers is a very good ruler, and young enough to rule for a long time.

Prediction: he's going to continue getting squeezed by his nemeses in Samid and BootsyCollins, possibly to extinction.

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Organic Potatoes

We've come to the undisputed colonial master of the game, @Organic Potatoes. Though other countries found their way to the New World eventually, OP got in early enough to claim almost the entirety of South America, as well as a piece of Alaska and Mexico. He's also got things going on in Asia, though I couldn't find a good way to show that on the map. Look on the world map I posted in the stats update, and you'll see his little colour everywhere. That said, he has finally ran into someone who can oppose him, at least locally. He's had at least two or three unsuccessful wars against the country of Malacca (and friends), which has made itself into the main source of power in the East Indies. Another challenge is that his colonies are getting big in their own right, and the bigger they get the less likely they are to want to stay colonies. Particularly if they have someone whispering in their ears, as @Solius has done with Organic Potatoes Brazil, a colony in possession of 71k soldiers and now also a strong desire for liberty. Coincidentally, my previous prediction was "Organic Potatoes is going to snowball as long as they can stay out of a dumb war with Solius". That has certainly been borne out so far, to the point where Solius has decided to be more confrontational.

Prediction: He's going to crack the Malaccan code, and also fend off Solius' attempts to turn his colonies against him. Solius has a huge army, but it's in Europe, not America.

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Tiber

@Tiber started this game out pretty well, but things have decidedly slowed down since ever since he found himself ruled by @hobbers. He's taken part in quite a few wars, but as the junior partner he has had to see all the real spoils go to the senior partner in the personal union. That said, he has found an outlet in a mild bit of colonialism. He got too late to get a true colonial empire, but it's something. There's still no chance of hobbers inheriting Tiber entirely, but there's also nothing that indicates that Tiber is going to get out of the union. On the contrary, he seems quite happy to stay. We'll see how the age of imperialism and revolution changes that, if at all. My earlier prediction was: "he's going to stay in the personal union for at least another update, unless the Reformation and possible Religious War in the Empire shakes things up." He did, and it didn't.

Prediction: Tiber is going to stay in the personal union, and hobbers is going to keep dragging them into wars. If they get the revolutionary bug all bets are off.

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adexkola

We're going to finish part 1 of the update with @adexkola. Not everything has gone their way this game, but through conquest both in Europe and Central America they have built quite a strong country indeed. Though originally a German nation, they're turning into a bit of a Scandinavian as well, having chased @Igor Drefljak ever further north. That matches my last prediction pretty well: "He's going to keep attacking @Igor Drefljak, possibly chasing him all the way into Norway". They've also traded some land with @Abizzz, but I can't tell if ultimately to a net gain or loss. They have built quite the massive army at this point, and added quality, quantity and offensive ideas to bolster it. Offensive and quality together means it's a very strong army. They might need it, though, since the colonial nation of adexkola Mexico has a liberty desire of 84%, where anything above 50% makes them potentially rebellious. Nobody is supporting their independence yet, but if that happens things might kick off quickly.

Prediction: Lacking strong allies in Europe is going to have consequences, and @Abizzz, @BootsyCollins and possibly even @KirkDuyt are going to take advantage.

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Great work this @nimic. Just reading the thread is lot of work, nevermind writing it :wenger:

Thanks! Maybe next time I do it (for whatever game) I'll take bit a bit slower. I wanted to avoid the thing that often happened with the Football Manager Experiments, where updates were slower to come out, and people lost interest so I lost interest, so doing the updates felt like a job I was behind on.
 
I read every single one @nimic

It feels like we're close to having a really big proper war. If Solius and OP butts heads that will start a pretty major war right? Salt Bailly looks in a horrific position being sandwiched by two very large nations.
 
It's brilliant. Probably the best experiment I've been part of outside of real life.
 
If Solius and OP butts heads that will start a pretty major war right? Salt Bailly looks in a horrific position being sandwiched by two very large nations.
I've got them exactly where I want them. It's not the size of dog in the fight...
 
my country looks pretty big for an AI thats happy to sit in a personal union forever
 
Yeah just want to echo that I actually read every update @nimic and it's usually the first thread I look for now. Really enjoyed it so far
 
@nimic we’re about ready for the reconquest, right? Just around the corner when mighty WAPR’s armies… do something, or get a colony, or invent the shovel. We are ready!

This game seems insanely complex, thank you for the maps and updates.
 
@nimic we’re about ready for the reconquest, right? Just around the corner when mighty WAPR’s armies… do something, or get a colony, or invent the shovel. We are ready!

This game seems insanely complex, thank you for the maps and updates.

We might be! You guys have now got pretty easy CBs (casus belli, literally cause for war), so it's very easy for anyone to attack anyone else. Your armies are also getting bigger and bigger, and it's getting easier to take a lot of provinces in one war. We're also getting closer to revolutions being possible, and revolutionary armies spreading the revolutionary ideals.

The game is complex, but half of that is because it's a 10 year old game that still has active development, so there has been a lot of DLC and expansions adding to aspects of the game. There's so much that they have a subscription service now, since buying the base game and all of the DLC outright would be very expensive. It's fun, though, if you're into grand strategy.
 
1707 Country Updates - part 2 (click to expand)


Igor Drefljak

@Igor Drefljak is not having the best of times. He was allied to @BootsyCollins for a long time, and they were menacing Vidyoyo who was squeezed in between them. But then when Vidyoyo finally fell it was Bootsy who really profited. Then things started going badly for Igor on the continent, and he lost his German possessions. Then his Danish possessions. Now @adexkola has chased him right into his last Norwegian refuge. You'd think he'd continue, though at least Igor Drefljak picked some decent allies. @Organic Potatoes and @Samid are close enough, while @VeevaVee is pretty much a war addict who is suffering from withdrawal, so if adexkola really does come to finish Igor off, he just might have decent backup this time. My last prediction was: "@BootsyCollins is going to make him one of the next 3-4 to leave us." 3 more have gone since, but the 4th spot is still available. Though Bootsy wasn't the main issue.

Prediction: he's going to be forced into exile in one of his New World colonies, where he might suffer the fate of @Crackers.

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altodevil

@altodevil is looking more and more like England for every update, though I'm confident he hasn't forgotten about about losing most of Scotland to @Organic Potatoes. Well, I say that, but it's actually been so long that those provinces are no longer considered core provinces for altodevil. Not that that matters much at this point, since countries literally only needed "I want that" as a reason to start a war in the 1700s. He's got a rather strong army, a fairly strong navy and a strong set of allies, so it might be time to continue the re-unification of Great Britain, after Welsh Wonder was voted off the island. My previous prediction was: "he's going to continue squeezing Welsh Wonder out of Britain.", which... yeah. Welsh Wonder is an ex-country.

Prediction: altodevil is going to summon the courage to confront Organic Potatoes. He's going to lose his entire fleet, but he'll just about manage to occupy OPs British possessions, and that will be enough to take some of them in a peace deal.

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BD

The next guy is someone who didn't realize what kind of monster they were building. @BD and @RedSky happily went along with @Solius for everything, despite the direct gains usually only going to the latter. Now BD is a reduced figure on the Iberian peninsula, while RedSky is the junior partner in a personal union. Not that they didn't profit in some ways from the betrayal of @Crackers, though. BD has built up quite the South African Empire, and has indeed turned into an empire officially. That's half of my previous prediction, at least: "He's going to dominate Southern Africa and maybe even head to India once he's properly rounded the Horn." Nobody has yet tried to take on India, which has 3 quite strong countries guarding it. Though Emperor Duarte BD is almost completely useless at 0/0/2. He's still only 34 years old too, so we might be graced with his presence for another 50 years or more if we're lucky.

Prediction: he's going to be the victim of further aggression from Solius, eager to expand his Iberian possessions, and SilentWitness, eager to expand his African possessions.

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Wing Attack Plan R

@Wing Attack Plan R is almost certainly the player who has been at war for the longest total time in this game. Though only a few of those wars have been against other player countries, WAPR preferring to punch downwards. Or southwards, as it were. He seems to have stalled a bit now though, for whatever reason. There are still countries to conquer further south, but he if he wants to get there before BD comes from the other direction he'll have to move quickly. Though he's also got designs on the East Indies, having set up a few minor colonies already. My original prediction was: "He's going to carry on conquering his way down Africa, but might be in trouble with @Walrus and @AnotherLondonManc up north." That hasn't really happened, and in fact it was Walrus who was in trouble with ALM instead.

Prediction: he's rested long enough (he's actually got max manpower for the first time in probably 200 years), so now he'll keep expanding south, successfully.

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SilentWitness

@SilentWitness seems almost completely uninterested in what's going on in Europe, focusing completely on expanding his now rather impressive West African holdings. He's even made the jump to the Caribbean (to Crackers' surprise), though there's now no more free room to be had there. Room sometimes frees itself, though, as he found out when @Solius got so caught up in events in Europe that he completely neglected the widespread rebellion in his own West African colonies. The result was that large parts of it declared independence, a claim which SilentWitness took personally. Queen Blanche is not bad at all, though she needs to get an heir or find the RedSky dynasty in her place. Bizarrely, SilentWitness has only had female rulers so far: Evertonia I, Thirza, Clemetina, Evertonia II, Mechthild, Selina, Petronilla and now Blanche. My prediction was: "If he can stay allied with @Solius and @altodevil he'll be safe against @Eboue. If the alliances break, he's done." He did stay allied with Solius, which was enough.

Prediction: now that @Eboue has been reduced (though still powerful), SilentWitness is going to make an attempt to retake his lost provinces in Northern France, with the help of Solius and his RedSky sidekick.

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Walrus

For a while there it really looked like @Walrus might be one of the next to go. He was in a a very quick succession of wars against basically all of his neighbours - except the Timurids, who "only" betrayed their alliance with him and left him to be ganged up on. It would be far too optimistic to say that he's recovered since then, but at least he's stabilized. Somewhat. He's also retaken some of the territory he was forced to release, though he's still eying his previous vassal Hisn Kayfa, who he were also forced to let go. @hobbers and @AnotherLondonManc both seem to have lost interest, at least for now. Perhaps because Walrus found himself a new ally, all the way over in India. Gujarat might not seem like much, but they have a massive army. My previous prediction was a hard miss: "Further wars with Wing Attack Plan R, pushing down into Arabia."

Prediction: there are only two options. Either hobbers comes to finish the job, or Walrus tries to sandwich the Timurids between himself and his new Indian allies.

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V.O.

@V.O. is in a bit of a strange position. After the last update he finally started getting more and more involved in wider European affairs. He even started taking a few territories. Then he found himself in a succession war in which his side lost, and he ended up as the junior partner in a personal union with his erstwhile enemies (@P-Nut). He also lost a province a two, and there's no indication that he's getting those back. What he does have is a pretty strong ally, an ally who has an even stronger ally of their own in @hobbers. As long as he's in in the union he's not going to see any direct territorial gains, but we'll see how that pans out long term. My prediction was: "V.O is going to be heavily involved in any future Religious War, and probably not together with the heretic adexkola." If I remember correctly he was basically the only country in central Europe which didn't take part in the actual Religious War.

Prediction: he's going to stay in the union with P-Nut, and probably watch him start grabbing more territory.

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VeevaVee

@VeevaVee has stalled a bit since the last update. He had started building quite a nice little Balkan empire, and though he's still there he's lost some of it and failed to expand on the parts he kept. The Italian Alliance has probably ended for good; it could tolerate one war between VeevaVee and @P-Nut, but not the second. He's still got @AnotherLondonManc, but I strongly question his decision to stay allied to @KirkDuyt and @Igor Drefljak, two who are definitely in danger of dragging him into unwinnable wars. He's probably a lot more interested in going after @Andycoleno9. My prediction was: "if P-Nut stays allied to Andy, we're going to see another war between Italians. Hopefully VeevaVee brings some allies this time." That did sort of happen, but the war somehow resulted in all three of the involved parties (andy, VeevaVee and P-Nut) losing territory.

Prediction: he's going to lose his colonies, but take land to compensate in Europe (sorry @Andycoleno9).

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1707 Country Updates - part 3 (click to expand)


hobbers

The last part of this update has some of the strongest countries, so it's fitting that we begin with @hobbers. hobbers is turning into a bit of a behemot, as @Walrus discovered to his detriment. He's got the single largest army in the world, and has a reasonably strong sidekick in @Tiber. He could probably attack anyone and have a pretty good chance at winning. He's even gotten started on a bit of colonialism, though the only way his colonial empire is going to grow is if he conquers someone else's. My previous prediction for hobbers was: "hobbers is going to fight Walrus and successfully claim Anatolia." Which is exactly what happened. Though he seems content to let Walrus keep at least a small part of it.

Prediction: he's going to attack @VeevaVee for his piece of the Balkans, which is going to bring him into renewed conflict with Veevavee's ally, @AnotherLondonManc.

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P-Nut

From one Orthodox country to... another?! Yes, @P-Nut is still Orthodox, although young Libero P-Nut has grown up and now rules in his own right. Converting might seems like an odd choice, but it's brought P-Nut even closer to hobbers. And as I just mentioned, that might well lead to war with both of P-Nut's former allies in Italy. That could work out well. He also managed to grab @V.O. by force since the last update, installing King Libero on the throne there as well. Earlier I predicted that: "he's going to attack Switzerland", and that finally came true. Though he's also lost a few provinces to the likes of @RedSky and @AnotherLondonManc, he's still seen net growth. He's now taken both defensive, quality and quantity ideas, which makes his army pretty potent.

Prediction: he won't dare attack @RedSky, but @VeevaVee is going to have another visit from P-Nut soon.

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Abizzz

@Abizzz is the undisputed champion of border gore, also known as the art of ugly borders. Just look at this shit. He's grown awfully strong in his awful borders, though. He's got a quite large army, though he should think about picking up quality or offensive ideas to make it even more impactful. He's also got allies that are sort of similar to himself in @altodevil and @Eboue. Like Abizzz, they have suffered defeats to rivals but have still managed to build up their strength. The obvious target here is going to be @adexkola, who is lacking any real allies. He might be able to fend off only Abizzz on his own, but not all three. This matches rather well up to my previous prediction: "they're going to continue expanding. If they can hang on to their allies they'll be successful, but if they lose @Eboue in particular they are going to get smacked down by @adexkola again." The alliance has held.

Prediction: Abizzz is going to tag-team adexkola along with Eboue and maybe altodevil.

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AnotherLondonManc

@AnotherLondonManc is one of the countries that managed to get to the New World just in time to grab something before @Organic Potatoes and @RedSky took it all. In ALM's case it's mostly about AnotherLondonManc Colombia, which OP was kind enough to help him conquer over several wars. It's been a bit of a charmed game so far for ALM, who I genuinely suspected was going to be one of the first to get smacked down, being so spread out in his starting position. Instead he's expanded in Italy, Northern Africa and now also Anatolia and the Levant. He's got a strong set of allies, though we'll see how allying both @altodevil and @Organic Potatoes is going to work out, given they're bitter rivals. My prediction was a miss: "He's going to find himself in a war with Solius pretty soon, since they no longer have an ally in common to stop them." That never happened, if I remember correctly.

Prediction: war with @hobbers is on the horizon, given his alliance with @VeevaVee and his own possessions in hobbers' Anatolian backyard.

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Solius

On to the original monster, @Solius. His army is perhaps no longer large enough to win huge wars all on its own, but he's still got a massive army and a massive navy. He's also managed to turn @RedSky from just an ally into the junior partner in a personal union. Though to be fair it might not make much difference given RedSky never seemed reluctant to join Solius in his adventures either way. Since last time he's grown in Europe at @Eboue's cost, but he's also lost a chunk of West Africa to rebels (that were quickly devoured by @SilentWitness, ever hungry for more African lands). Recently he's been trying to establish a real foot-hold in the East Indies, but has like @Organic Potatoes struggled against the local power of Malacca. My prediction was close, but no cigar: "he's going to conquer all of West Africa, taking it from other Europeans if he has to."

Prediction: he's going to keep trying to conquer the East Indies, and at some point he's going to at least get his foot in the door.

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Shakesey

Ah, @Shakesey. What is there to say about Shakesey? He's still sitting in St. Helena, with neither friend nor foe. Nobody has a bad opinion of him, and nobody has a good opinion of him. He just is. He's built two transport ships, as you can see in the image, though I'm not sure where he's planning to sail them. He's about three Institutions behind the rest of the world. Which isn't too surprising given how remote St. Helena is. My earlier prediction was: "he's going to outlive Dr. Dwayne, Crackers, PSV and Welsh Wonder." Three down, @PSV to go.

Prediction: Shakesey is eternal.


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PSV

Speak of the devil. @PSV seems like he might be in a very bad position, but he's deceptively strong. He actually has a bigger army than @Samid, his longtime bully. Right now using that army to reclaim some lost territories seems unlikely given Samid's allies. At some point that might change, however, and then PSV could pounce. He's also definitely eyeing the small country of Wolgast on his western border, but for some reason Wolgast have managed to ally both @SilentWitness and @hobbers, so that war wouldn't go very well. Another worry is PSV's alliance with @Salt Bailly, who keeps finding himself attacked by his now-bigger neighbours. My previous prediction was: "At some point Salt Bailly is going to be weak enough for PSV to strike, but they might lose the war." I don't know how the personal union ended, but it wasn't due to war. He chose to keep being allied to Salt Bailly though, unwisely.

Prediction: PSV is going get involved in Salt Bailly's wars again, but this time hobbers is going to join too. That will be PSV's chance to punish Samid for his transgressions.


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Eboue

Seemingly not content to just rule the French, @Eboue has been busy attacking @KirkDuyt in the Netherlands. Currently he actually rules over significantly more Dutch provinces than the Dutchman himself. The other side of the coin is that he was on the wrong side of the Religious War in the Holy Roman Empire, which cost him quite a lot in France. No doubt he's looking for a chance to strike back at @RedSky. While RedSky's daddy @Solius is still very strong, he's no longer so strong that he could deal with anyone all on his own. Eboue has built a very strong alliance with @altodevil, @Abizzz and @BootsyCollins. I didn't quite hit with my last prediction: "he's going to make life quite hard for @SilentWitness." SilentWitness is no worse for the wear.

Prediction: he's going to finish KirkDuyt, at least as far as Europe goes, and maybe start moving into Germany as Abizzz inevitably strikes @adexkola.

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RedSky

Last up we've come to @RedSky. Though he now finds himself under @Solius in a personal union (which brought the Redsky dynasty back home, mind), he's still got a lot going for him. His colonies have come to dominate North America, and he should still be strong enough to keep them from slipping from his grasp. Particularly since Solius has his back in that regard. The one big issue with the personal union is that any further gains in Europe will go to Solius instead. As indeed they already have, with Solius taking four French provinces from @Eboue a bit earlier. My earlier prediction was spot on, but to be fair it was a very easy prediction to make: "he's going to be the premier power in North America." He's got some competition there with @adexkola and @Organic Potatoes (and New Eboue), but he's top dog.

Prediction: he's going to get into some colonial conflicts, and at some point Floride is going to make their bid for independence.

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We're getting closer to the end now. Only 114 years to go. It's possible to run past the end-date though, so we'll see how we do it. I might run it to 1836 and then see how the EU4 to Victoria 3 converter is coming along. It might be too early for that one, so we'll see.
 
Excellent update! Pleasantly surprised how much we have grown in Africa and to the west!
 
This could be a series of novels and I'd buy every one! Whenever I come on the caf, my first thought is to check whether nimic has tagged me in a post.

But I love reading all the updates! Great work, truly. This thread has been goated as far as I'm concerned, whether or not Solius and Hobbers yeet me to oblivion
 
Oh, big war! It started over a country that doesn't even exist anymore. Now @Wing Attack Plan R is with the Indians in Gujarat gainst @AnotherLondonManc and @Organic Potatoes. The numbers favour the latter, but keep in mind a lot of their troops are colonial. At best they have to be transported over first, at worst they're not coming. Though it remains to be seen how many Indians turn up in the Middle East too.

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