So lets get this straight. Despite being the best selling console of this generation, the fact that sales have started to slow (long past most people's expectations) means that it's doomed?
Also, Sony only announced the PS3 when the PS2 sales all but dried up didn't they?
I think that you are missing the point here in that the base of the argument is about software, not individual hardware blocks. Historically, sales of any machine fall off once 3rd party output drops off, and 3rd party output drops off when 3rd parties are not making any money leaving a situation where the first party company in question cannot support the machine in question with enough software on its own, thus leading to a lower value position and an ever decreasing number of hardware sales, leading to less software sales, going around in a vicious circle. The fact of the matter is that XB360 and PS3 sales are still increasing in terms of hardware and software, the Wii is falling rapidly in both and 3rd parties are jumping or have already jumped ship. It's even worse when you consider it that XB360 was released over a year before the Wii. That's the point, Wii sales have been totally front loaded and are not sustainable.
You are living in a dream world if you honestly think the new consoles are that far off, but we've had this discussion before and only time will tell.
Why would Microsoft and Sony release new machines, incurring vast costs in the process when they both have machines that are increasing their sales in hardware and software? Especially considering that the flagship models of each are nowhere even near mass market pricing points yet?
You also miss the point that Microsoft has basically cut into Sony's market, divided it in half. If you combine XB360 and PS3 sales in hardware alone, you are getting in the region of an 83 million ballpark figure. This is larger than the Wii, and around the same as GCN, XB1, Dreamcast, and PS2 figures at the same point in the life cycle. The difference is however that combined the XB1 and GCN didn't even hit 50 million units, PS2 hit 150 million. Those two combined didn't reach 1/4 of the market, XB360 and PS3 together have over 50% of the market in terms of hardware, and growing without PS3 being anywhere close to mass market price. Microsoft basically took 50% of Sony's PS2 cake.
How you then factor in 70m Wiis says something doesn't it? That mainstream gamer market is still there, even bigger, yet console sales in this generation are way above that of the previous generation, and in terms of Wii and PS3 we are only 4 years in! XB360 is 5 years in.
As I've said, XB360 and PS3 having GPUs so close to PC counterparts allows them to very easily make games across all three platforms, and the market provided by those three platforms is much bigger than the market provided for by Wii, and XB360/PS3 owners buy a lot more software, the attach rates is much much higher, mainly due to the type of gamer that buys those machines.
It amuses me, though, that you continually talk about the amount of games on the PS2/3. There are plenty of highlights on those systems, but the PS3 is hardly swamped in actual good games now is it? The PS2 obviously has an even higher amount of shit.
The quality of the games is irrelevant. What is relevant is that 3rd parties are still making games, and making money.
Oh and the Wii must have only been a rubbish gimmick, so rubbish infact that your beloved Sony have nicked a Wiimote, stuck a ping pong ball on the end and changed the sensor bar to a camera. But of course, that's nothing like the Wiimote and the shovelware (which much of it is already on the PS3/Xbox anyway), won't just be ported across either will it.
You know very well that Richard Marks was working on Move long before Wii was even announced. In any case, the difference is that you can easily port Wii shovelware to Move, you can't easily port MW2 to the Wii.
I'll say it again, it's not really a shock that a product with such a vast sales rate and installed user base slows down in sales. The only real surprise is it's taken so long.
Yet you keep missing the point. XB360 and PS3 combined provide a bigger userbase than Wii, and a userbase more likely to buy software. And both are still growing in sales whereas Wii sales, both hardware and software are in decline. Xb360 and PS3 also provide a relatively simple path to make games for both, games that would need to be totally re-engineered to work on the Wii due to its technical limitations. 3rd parties have two options, try to compete with Nintendo for the 75m Wii owners' money, or go for an 83m market where the users actually buy their games.
