Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says.

Asked about the issue in an interview with TV channel India Today, Lavrov says: "Conventional weapons only."

Early on in the war, Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces be placed on high alert, and a number of Russian government figures have signalled the country would be willing to use them in certain circumstances.

Lavrov also says, with Russia's offensive now focused on Ukraine's east, the war is entering a new phase, echoing similar comments from the Ukrainian military.

"The operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the [self-proclaimed] Donetsk and Luhansk republics. And this operation will continue," he says.

"Another stage of this operation is beginning, and I am sure this will be a very important moment of this entire special operation."


Source : BBC
Well this is worrying - usually when the say they won't they will, and when they say they will, they don't.
 
The BBC reports:

"A commander of one of the pro-Russian separatists' battalions in the east of Ukraine, Mikhail Kishchik, has been killed. Better known under the nickname Misha the Chechen, Kishchik died as Russian troops and separatists' forces began an assault against the Ukrainian army in the east of the country.

The prime minister of the self-proclaimed Luhansk people's republic (LNR) Sergei Kozlov writes on his social media account: "Sad news from the front line. A patriot of the LNR, Lt Col Mikhail Kishchik has died."

Kozlov adds Kishchik and his comrades were surrounded by Ukrainians close to the town of Kreminna and "fought to the last".

"We are establishing the number of those killed and wounded," he adds.

Kreminna is one of the points on the front line where Russian forces are trying to advance towards the bigger towns of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, held by the Ukrainian troops.

Kishchik and his battalion have been fighting against the Ukrainian forces since 2014. In the early stages of the conflict, he and his fighters were accused of looting residential areas in the Luhansk region.

In 2016, during a lull in the hostilities in the east of Ukraine, a Russian independent newspaper "Novaya Gazeta" published an investigation, naming Kishchik one of the chiefs of a smuggling ring in the east of Ukraine. He never commented on the allegations."
 
He is a bit of grandstander. His previous role in the military won't be of any help to the Ukrainians given that he left in 2001 and the way the military functions today in terms of technology and methods is very different. Fair play for him putting his neck on the line though.

Sure, Western militaries and Ukraine's do, but Russia's...:nervous:
 
Some thread this:



This is just a fancy way of saying that Russians think their culture is superior to that of Ukraine, a superiority that gives them to right to force Ukrainians to become Russified, and that this is supposedly the driving force behind the invasion.

There may be some truth in this, but overall I don't buy it as the major factor. For me, the major factor that drove the invasion is the fear of Putin's regime that a free, democratic, independent and westward-looking Ukraine will give ideas to the people of Russia and Byelorussia.
 
This is just a fancy way of saying that Russians think their culture is superior to that of Ukraine, a superiority that gives them to right to force Ukrainians to become Russified, and that this is supposedly the driving force behind the invasion.

There may be some truth in this, but overall I don't buy it as the major factor. For me, the major factor that drove the invasion is the fear of Putin's regime that a free, democratic, independent and westward-looking Ukraine will give ideas to the people of Russia and Byelorussia.

I have no idea what went on in Putin’s head when he started this war but the narrative set out in those tweets does help explain how the state media is able to sell this war (and Euromaidan before that) to the Russian public. In that worldview, Ukraine is the disobedient little brother which pretends it is a different nation with its own language based on historical and literary ”traditions” invented in the 19th century.
 
How Putin died:

https://pastebin.com/7uzUerrN

If Musk, Bill Gates or someone of that ilk want to put up a $2.1 billion bounty on Putin's head ... perhaps it would work. It'd be an awfully big temptation for those around Putin.

However, I'd suggest they put up the bounty anonymously.
 
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This is just a fancy way of saying that Russians think their culture is superior to that of Ukraine, a superiority that gives them to right to force Ukrainians to become Russified, and that this is supposedly the driving force behind the invasion.

There may be some truth in this, but overall I don't buy it as the major factor. For me, the major factor that drove the invasion is the fear of Putin's regime that a free, democratic, independent and westward-looking Ukraine will give ideas to the people of Russia and Byelorussia.
So you think Putin wants to make sure that there is only one pan-Russian way of living in Russia, Belarus and "Little Russia" (as Ukraine is often called there). Sounds to me a lot similar to Galeev's point.
 
So you think Putin wants to make sure that there is only one pan-Russian way of living in Russia, Belarus and "Little Russia" (as Ukraine is often called there). Sounds to me a lot similar to Galeev's point.

Not really, unless you think that Russian culture involves an active desire of most Russians to live permanently under a brutal and corrupt gangster-dictatorship, with no freedom of speech and no access to the internet or anything but state-controlled media, with untold billions siphoned off every year in the pockets of the head-gangsters, widespread press-ganging into the military etc etc.

I don't believe that's what most Russians want, especially not the younger ones.
 
There may be some truth in this, but overall I don't buy it as the major factor. For me, the major factor that drove the invasion is the fear of Putin's regime that a free, democratic, independent and westward-looking Ukraine will give ideas to the people of Russia and Byelorussia.

Spot on
 
It’s actually a combination of both at this point. There’s definitely a strong fascist sentiment within the society coupled with imperialistic nostalgia of the past at the same time. Putin has at this point a strong enough grip on the power and repression apparatus to really not give too much feck about the uprising of the democratic movements. He has financial resources to sustain and increase the level of brutality if needed by keeping security body happy.
 
How accurate is this, though? Surely countries aren't publicizing all these things?
This would be the publicly announced support.

The US, France and the UK would (I assume as they have the three biggest militaries) be providing a lot of covert weapons, equipment and intelligence to the Ukrainians.
 
Pentagon: Ukraine has gotten additional aircraft and aircraft parts to increase their fleet size:

 
The BBC reports:

"More now on what's been promised by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, following his video call with President Biden and others earlier.

Johnson was among the Western leaders who pledged to send more artillery to Ukraine.

Specifically, he said he planned to equip Kyiv with anti-ship missiles - including by mounting British Brimstone rockets to vehicles.

Reuters reports that Brimstones have previously been used by UK forces in Libya and Syria, and are typically launched from fast jet aircraft. They're used against fast-moving land and sea targets."
 

Total embarrassment from Germany leadership, corrupt to the core its seems with Russian money. Deserve all the criticism coming their way from Ukraine and more. Germany chosen fascist Russia over the allies in Baltics/Central/Eastern Europe. We won’t forget.

Some little points I like to add for perspective:
- the lack of heavy weapon transfers is a disaster that has been 20 years in the making (at least), as the Bundeswehr was massively neglected. It's equipment is in a sorry state, and giving away substantial amounts of it would be a big problem for our national security. It's the result of an army tasked to keep peace around the world and a pacifist society that doesn't want to think about it. It's a fault of German leadership indeed, but not only of the current one.
- SPD (Scholz party, the social democrats) and AfD (right wing) seem to be the only parties hesitant on going all in. Even Scholz coalition partners, the Greens and the liberal FDP are calling Scholz out for it (and lots of the public do so as well). So I guess this war shows us some unexpected frontlines in German politics.
- While it is slow it is at least something that he promised a carte blanche for Ukrainian orders directly in German factories. The only problem about this is that building heavy stuff just takes too long.
 
Some little points I like to add for perspective:
- the lack of heavy weapon transfers is a disaster that has been 20 years in the making (at least), as the Bundeswehr was massively neglected. It's equipment is in a sorry state, and giving away substantial amounts of it would be a big problem for our national security. It's the result of an army tasked to keep peace around the world and a pacifist society that doesn't want to think about it. It's a fault of German leadership indeed, but not only of the current one.
- SPD (Scholz party, the social democrats) and AfD (right wing) seem to be the only parties hesitant on going all in. Even Scholz coalition partners, the Greens and the liberal FDP are calling Scholz out for it (and lots of the public do so as well). So I guess this war shows us some unexpected frontlines in German politics.
- While it is slow it is at least something that he promised a carte blanche for Ukrainian orders directly in German factories. The only problem about this is that building heavy stuff just takes too long.

What "big problem for our national security"??? Who the feck is going to attack Germany in the next 10 years? Is this a joke? American bases protect Germany, American bases protected Germany in the past 70 years and that's why Germany is rich today, there are no "national security" issues for Germany thanks to the Americans.
 
If Germany cannot deliver the materiel, then that makes it all the more imperative for the US, UK and France to do so.

Whatever the UK can provide it should provide, including training. In a perverse way, since out PM is using the Ukrainian war as an excuse not to resign, I suspect he will do whatever he can to support the Ukrainian armed forces.
 
What "big problem for our national security"??? Who the feck is going to attack Germany in the next 10 years? Is this a joke? American bases protect Germany, American bases protected Germany in the past 70 years and that's why Germany is rich today, there are no "national security" issues for Germany thanks to the Americans.
Essentially all heavy equipment is either used in international missions, needed for training or is not fully operational. I don't think that for example @Rajma in Lithuania would be very happy if the Bundeswehr has to withdraw from the NATO enhanced forward presence mission, because we give our tanks to Ukraine.

It's terrible that we have to think about such choices, and it makes us look both weak and stupid (rightfully so), but if I had to decide between throwing a NATO and EU member under the bus, or some random country we have no close ties or formal alliances to, I would always chose to stay faithful to our allies.

And by the way, saying that the US protected Germany for 70 years is just false, until 1990 there was no peace treaty after WW2 and those were essentially occupation forces willing to sacrifice Germany as a battle ground to be destroyed in WW3. This isn't exactly protection, and after the threat of the SU vanished the US weren't needed as protectors, they just stayed, used Germany as a logistics base and that's it.
 
Once again, I highly recommend this YouTube channel for the latest news and (mostly daily) updated campaign maps from a guy who knows what he's talking about:

 
Essentially all heavy equipment is either used in international missions, needed for training or is not fully operational. I don't think that for example @Rajma in Lithuania would be very happy if the Bundeswehr has to withdraw from the NATO enhanced forward presence mission, because we give our tanks to Ukraine.
Germany seems fine to sell their Marders to Greece though…
 
The BBC reports:

"Sanctioned Russian tycoon condemns 'insane' war
A Russian tycoon has blasted Moscow's "massacre" in Ukraine and called on the West to end the "insane war", in a profanity-laced Instagram post.

"I don't see a SINGLE beneficiary of this insane war! Innocent people and soldiers are dying," wrote Oleg Tinkov, 54, in Russian.

According to him, "90%" of his fellow Russians are also against this war. The remaining 10% "are morons" he said.
Tinkov, one of Russia's most well-known entrepreneurs, founded Tinkoff Bank in 2006.

On Instagram he added: "Waking up with a hangover, the generals realised that they have a shit army.

"And how will the army be good, if everything else in the country is shit and mired in nepotism, sycophancy and servility?"

Before Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, Tinkov's wealth had been estimated at more than $4.4bn (£3.4bn).
But he has since lost his billionaire status as shares in his bank have plummeted, Forbes reported last month.

In a statement, Tinkoff Bank said it would not comment on the "private opinion" of its founder, saying he no longer makes decisions for the brand."